Project on Middle East Democracy

Project on Middle East Democracy
The POMED Wire


Exciting? Yes. Contagious? No. First Make it Happen in Tunisia

January 20th, 2011 by Cole

We should not let the dramatic and exhilarating events in Tunisia cloud a realistic analysis of the prospects for democratization, writes Kamran Bokhari, Middle East and South Asia director at STRATFOR. While experts conflate what is happening with what they want to happen, western NGOs are focusing on making it happen – translating an anti-autocratic insurgency into a democratic transition.

See also the previous contributions to thDemocracy Digest-POMED Tunisia symposium from Amr HamzawySteven HeydemannLarry DiamondArun Kapil and Shadi Hamid.

The fall of the Ben Ali regime in Tunisia has created a lot of excitement both within the Arab world and in the west about the prospects for the spread of democracy in the wider MENA region. In many ways, such a reaction is normal given the way civil society forces took to the streets and in less than a month forced the country’s strongman to flee the country.

Similar reactions were seen with the outbreak of the Green Movement in Iran following the controversial June 2009 presidential elections when for the first time in the history of the Islamic republic a significant number of people sought to purge the Iranian system of clerical oversight.

Caught up in the euphoria of potential revolutionary change, even experts tend to become incapable of distinguish what is really happening from what they want to see happen. This was evident in the reporting and analysis during the turmoil in Iran. Within six months or so it became clear that the predictions of the impending fall of the Islamic republic were premature. A similar argument can be made in the case of Tunisia – most certainly with regards to the wider regional implications.

This is not to say that regime-change has not happened in the tiny North African Arab state. Even though most of those who helped Ben Ali remain in power for nearly a quarter of a century are still in charge in Tunis, the regime is gone and its successors are an interim bunch.

At this early stage it is difficult to tell whether the transitional situation will lead to a democratic dispensation, some minor adjustments to the incumbent autocratic system, or see the country experience greater civil strife.  The lack of a well-defined political leadership and machinery that can channel national grass-roots sentiment towards the goal of a democratic setup is a key missing ingredient. The decades-long marginalization of opposition parties under one-party rule greatly complicates a transition to a democratic polity.

Regardless of how events unfold, the more significant question is how the Tunisian uprising will impact other Arab states. This is where we need to separate the oil-rich countries from the rest. In other words, the more vulnerable states include Morocco, Egypt, Jordan, Syria, and Yemen whereas Algeria, Libya, and the GCC states have the financial bandwidth to better manage any threats of civil unrest.

Even among more vulnerable states, each country has its own unique circumstances despite sharing many of the same social, political, and economic ills. While weak, these states are not completely without options – coercive or otherwise. Likewise, civil society in each of these countries is quite divided and unable to mobilize the critical mass needed to force the hand of the regime.

Because of these differences, we are unlikely to witness a democratic wave in the region similar to the one that hit Eastern Europe in 1989. Even in Tunisia, there is considerable debate over how to ensure that the uprising leads to the establishment of a genuine democracy.

While some western NGOs are now focusing on helping civil society groups convert an anti-autocratic insurgency into a democratic transition, western governments are taking a more cautious approach given the uncertainties associated with how change can undermine regional stability in the Middle East.

The views expressed here are those of the author and not necessarily reflect those of STRATFOR, the Austin, TX-based global intelligence company.


Posted in Civil Society, Iran, NGOs, Protests, Reform, Tunisia, Tunisia Symposium |

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3 Responses to “Exciting? Yes. Contagious? No. First Make it Happen in Tunisia”

  1. Welcome | Project on Middle East Democracy Says:

    […] See also the previous contributions to the Democracy Digest-POMED Tunisia symposium from Amr Hamzawy, Steven Heydemann, Larry Diamond, Arun Kapil, Shadi Hamid, and Kamran Bokhari. […]

  2. Welcome | Project on Middle East Democracy Says:

    […] from Amr Hamzawy, Steven Heydemann, Larry Diamond, Arun Kapil, Shadi Hamid, Kamran Bokhari, and Nabila […]

  3. Welcome | Project on Middle East Democracy Says:

    […] symposium from Amr Hamzawy, Steven Heydemann, Larry Diamond, Arun Kapil, Shadi Hamid, Kamran Bokhari, Nabila Hamza, and Kristina […]

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