March 31st, 2009 by Cecile

In an interview with Middle East Bulletin, Ziad Majed provides an analysis of Lebanon’s upcoming parliamentary elections. He outlines the differences between the March 8 and March 14 alliances and explains that “this will be the first election, probably in modern Lebanese history, that is between two blocs.” Some of the major issues being debated include state sovereignty, Hezbollah’s maintenance of weapons, and regional alliances with states such as Syria and Iran.

Demographics throughout most districts provide a reasonable indicator of who the winners will be in different regions. However, Majed argues that there are four or five battleground districts (which are majority Christian) that will probably determine the outcome of the election. His prediction? March 14 will most likely have the majority, but only by about 6 or 7 seats.

Meanwhile, Elias Harfoush of Dar Al Hayat argues that the real issue at hand is what comes after the election. Predicting that the elections will probably run smoothly, it will be the formation of a unity government and determining the appropriate role of the president that will prove difficult, and possibly dangerous.

Posted in Elections, Lebanon |