Baobab

PRESIDENT Yoweri Museveni of Uganda is heading into Hosni Mubarak's league. He seized power in 1986, following a bush war. In elections due on February 18th, Mr Museveni should handily win another five years in office. He and his National Revolutionary Movement (NRM) positioned themselves as guarantors of peace and security. Over time, freedom fighters became "historicals"—grandees who benefit financially from state connections.

In the 2001 elections, many Ugandans decided they had had enough of Mr Museveni. They voted for Kizza Besigye, a doctor. In 2006, the mood was even more squally. Fearing defeat, Mr Museveni had Mr Besigye tried on trumped up rape charges. Opposition supporters were beaten up and jailed, the press censored. Mr Museveni won the election, but the vote was not fair.

This time, Mr Besigye and other opposition candidates can campaign freely. The press is also free. That is because Mr Museveni has decided to buy his way back into office. He has personally distributed brown envelopes stuffed with cash to lucky peasants, teachers and officials up and down the country. The election is the most expensive in Ugandan history.

Mr Besigye is also spending money, much of it from businessmen hedging their bets. His Forum for Democratic Change will contest 295 of the 330 parliamentary seats. It voters will be inspired by events in Egypt too: "People are saying no to dictators and leaders who are imposing themselves on the people," says Mr Besigye. He suspects that the NRM has recruited large numbers of underage voters. If the result is close, he promises peaceful and determined demonstrations. If opinion polls are even approximate, there will be little doubt about the result. The police have invested heavily in equipment and extra officers to make sure protests do not turn violent.

Mr Besigye’s problem is that he fails to inspire. There has been no spike in newspaper circulation during this campaign. His manifesto is lacklustre. Many voters say he comes across as angry. It counts against him that he once served as Mr Museveni’s personal surgeon and chief political commissar. He has failed to exploit the ill-will many Ugandans feel towards government interference with the traditional Bantu kingdoms.

By contrast, Mr Museveni has all the luck. Roadside stalls sell posters of the 67-year old president as Rambo, the eponymous Hollywood commando. Peace is holding in the north and east of the country. Then there is oil. Recent discoveries in the Albertine basin, shared with Congo, could yield 3 billion barrels of sweet crude. Mr Museveni wants to build a $2 billion oil refinery before 2015.

Hopes of an energy-independent and industrial Uganda are undermined by worries of the IMF and others that the country has not strengthened its institutions for when the oil starts flowing. Negotiations with oil companies have gone better than expected and there is some degree of transparency, but few expect that to last. The army will want its share of the $50 billion bonanza. Its generals are already given choice lands and budgets for soldiers that do not exist.

Even if the oil is handled well, there are warning signs. Uganda’s population has grown from 15m in 1986 to 32m today, half under 16 years old. Youth unemployment is 80%. The NRM’s campaign promises in 2006 to support industry have amounted to little. Mr Besigye is right to talk about a "massive collapse in service delivery" in terms of schools and hospitals.

For now, Mr Museveni has managed to keep youth frustration at bay by appealing to national cohesion, especially in the face of suicide bombings by jihadist groups, and with gimmicks such as performing rap songs and buying up popular entertainers. But his clinging to power and failure even to indicate a successor have reduced Ugandan politics to a spoils system. The influence of the first lady, Janet Museveni, has fallen away. Events in Egypt make it more unlikely that Mr Museveni’s son, Lieutenant-Colonel Moohizi Kainerugaba, commander of the presidential guard, will succeed him. So Mr Museveni looks set to spend political capital and money his country can ill-afford to buy himself yet another term in 2016.