Ex-communist Europe
Eastern approaches
Crises in the Balkans
While you were watching Egypt...
Feb 15th 2011, 19:10 by T.J. | SKOPJE
SHARP-EYED observers have noted that some of the protestors that brought down Egypt's president used the clenched-fist logo of Otpor, the well-organised, foreign-financed civic resistance movement that helped topple Slobodan Milosevic in 2000. Parts of the Serbian press, notes Florian Bieber, an academic who works on Balkan affairs, have claimed that former Otpor activists helped train some of the opposition groups.
With the world's attention on the Arab world, the political instability gripping much of the western Balkans has largely been ignored. Yet so serious is the unrest here—including mass demonstrations in Belgrade, Tirana and Skopje—that one diplomat told me his country’s foreign ministry had asked him if he thought that Egypt-style revolution might sweep northwards into the Balkans. (His answer was an emphatic “no”.) Here is a round-up of recent developments:
Kosovo held an election on December 12th, but still has no government. Following allegations of “industrial-scale” fraud, re-runs had to be held. Until an apparent breakthrough yesterday, the country’s politicians had been unable to secure the basic outlines of a deal which would permit the formation of a government. Now, however, a faction within the Democratic Party of Kosovo of Hashim Thaci, the acting prime minister, has been forced to drop its insistence that its man, Jakup Krasniqi, the acting president, be given the job formally.
Behgjet Pacolli, a tycoon, now looks set to become president. In exchange his party, the New Kosovo Alliance, will enter into coalition with Mr Thaci. Mr Pacolli is married to a Russian, which, given Moscow's refusal to recognise Kosovo's independence, leaves some Kosovars appalled.
Two years after independence, Mr Thaci has never been so weak politically. He has been weakened by a row with Fatmir Limaj, the outgoing minister of transport, who enjoys much support in the party. Internationally, his standing has been shredded by a recent Council of Europe report making all sorts of lurid allegations against him. EULEX, the EU's police mission in Kosovo, is now investigating. Partly as a consequence Kosovo’s European integration process has failed to get off the ground. Five of the EU's 27 members do not recognise Kosovo.
The situation in Macedonia is little better. Nikola Gruevski, the prime minister, has set off for Washington seeking support for his attempts to speed EU and NATO integration, but he may get his ear chewed off when he arrives. Solving the almost 20-year-old name dispute with Greece appears less of a priority in Skopje than ever. Construction of a giant plinth that will support a statue of Alexander the Great is proceeding briskly, guaranteeing fresh outrage in Greece.
The Social Democratic opposition has pulled out of parliament, and Macedonia is gripped by the saga of A1 Television, whose bank accounts have been frozen for a second time by the courts. Mr Gruevski's opponents say that the government is trying to muzzle the last bastion of free speech in the country. Nonsense, claim government supporters. The courts are simply clamping down on tax evasion. In fact, the two arguments do not contradict each other. The smart money is on an early election in June.
Meanwhile a small group of Albanians and Macedonians fought a pitched battle in Skopje castle on February 13th, where the government has begun building what it says is a museum, in the shape of a church. The problem is that the castle is in an Albanian, and hence Muslim, part of town. When the Albanians protested, saying that the structure was being built over an ancient Illyrian site, Pasko Kuzman, the chief archaeologist, said construction would stop. But builders went in at night to continue their work, which led the Albanians to try and dismantle the structure. And so on, and so on.
Over in Albania the prime minister, Sali Berisha, has accused the opposition of staging a coup, following a demonstration on January 21st that went horribly wrong when Republican Guards allegedly fired on opposition supporters, killing four. The demonstration sprang from charges by the opposition, led by Edi Rama, the Socialist mayor of Tirana, that Mr Berisha was returned to power in June 2009 by fraudulent elections. Unlike Macedonia, Albania is a member of NATO, but its EU integration path has effectively stalled.*
The Serbian government has been holed and is taking on water—but has not sunk yet. Mladjan Dinkic, head of the G17 Plus party and Serbia's deputy prime minister, had been openly criticising his governmental colleagues from President Boris Tadic’s Democratic Party. On February 14th Mirko Cvetkovic, the prime minister, moved to sack him. Mr Dinkic resigned today but stopped short of pulling his party out of the government.
How long the Serbian government can limp on like this is anyone’s guess. Tomislav Nikolic, leader of the opposition Serbian Progressive Party, has said that unless new elections are called before April 5th he will lead more protests in Belgrade. Watch this space.
Last but not least, Bosnia and Hercegovina. Elections there were held on October 3rd, but there is still no government at state level. No surprise there. Progress on anything, let alone EU integration, has been stalled in Bosnia since 2006 in the wake of the failure of the so-called "April Package" of constitutional reforms. Al Jazeera recently announced plans for a Balkans channel, based in Sarajevo and broadcasting in what it delicately calls “the regional language”. Given the station's role as the cheerleader of revolt in Tunisia and Egypt, one can understand diplomats' concerns.
*This paragraph has been updated: thanks to op-timist in the comments.
About Eastern approaches
Eastern approaches deals with the economic, political, security and cultural aspects of the eastern half of the European continent. It incorporates the long-running "Europe.view" weekly column. The blog is named after the wartime memoirs of the British soldier Sir Fitzroy Maclean.
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isnt it Bosnia and Herzegovina, instead of Bosnia and Hercegovina?
It's very simple: EU either needs to support free elections or shut up and let Balkan people solve their own problems. Now they are supporting Berisha, when everyone knows he stole the election.
And they must crack down on corrupt officials by imposing visa embargoes on them and their families or shut up.
Europe can't have it both ways, people are sick and tired
ColombianMan
It would appear that either synonyms are correct:
Bosna i Hercegovina; Bosnia and Herzegovina; Bosnia-Herzegovina; Republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina;
Actually, four people died as a result of the January 21st protests in Albania. Many more were wounded and more than 150 were arrested, beaten, and detained without charges. There are video and eyewitness reports that show the republican guard shooting directly on the crowd.
In the meantime,the investigation of the killings is being effectively stalled by the Prime Minister Sali Berisha who has openly accused leaders of the opposition, the President, and the General Prosecutor among others of a coup d’état. He has also ordered the creation of a parliamentarian investigative committee made up with members of his own party to investigate the alleged coup d’état.
Perhaps providing a little more information apart from the one standard paragraph you usually reserve for Albania would better inform your readers.
next episode of Balkan circus starts ... bring it on balkans ... we count on you for the longest running 'Soaprano' bore the world has seen ... we know what you will be doing 200 years hence ... long after even the Yemenis have a democratic rule.
And what about Croatia? It suffers its biggest corruption scandal since its independence. Furthermore, it lobbies for its European Admission in order to get EU billions to slow down the unemployment which is now at 18%. HDZ, the party established by former President Franjo Tudjman and of current prime minister Jadranka Kosor won't survive next elections. Their officials are involved in all kinds of crimes starting with war crime investigations by Amnesty International to corruption scandals involving major corporations. Do you need more material? Take a look at some major Croatian newspapers like Globus, Slobodna Dalmacija and Vercernji List and you will get all the information you need.
Article:
"Mr Pacolli is married to a Russian, which, given Moscow's refusal to recognise Kosovo's independence, leaves some Kosovars appalled."
Why? Is she also a Russian ambassador, or just a wife - position with no influence even on family level among the Mohammedans?
Plinth for Alexander the Great, an ancient Illyrian site... Macedonia rapidly becomes a joke of the Balkans. A proper sidekick to Greece.
@ No Mist:
"...next episode of Balkan circus starts."
Bring Yugoslavia back, and throw Bulgaria in as part of federation for good measure - that's the only way to stop the circus.
But no, Germany - the EU and NATO alpha dog who started the disintegration of Yugoslavia - would never allow something like this. They don't need wealthy, peaceful and influential Balkans.
@reluctant
I dont think the 'alpha dogs' are plotting anything in balkans ... quite the contrary, Germany benefits most from trade ... so a peaceful balkans will be in its interest. the days when Germany was the trouble maker are long gone ... wake up, it is more than 70 years.
does it not occur to you that balkans are primarily responsible for the mess they are in. does it rocket science to figure out how much the serbs hate others. and others are no saints either.
finally is Russia so much above suspicion that the 'alpha dogs' are to be blamed.
@ no mist:
"the days when Germany was the trouble maker are long gone ... wake up, it is more than 70 years."
With all due respect, you're poorly informed. The whole bloody mess in former Yugoslavia started when Germany clandestinely fomented separatist forces in Croatia and Slovenia (presumably as fellow Catholics), and not only hastily recognized them as independent nations, but used her influence in the EU to herd others to do the same. All these happened scarcely two decades ago.
Federate Yugoslavia would inevitably have underwent substantial reforms, in her own time; and then it will be neither radical Islamic Bosnia in the middle of Europe, nor human organs, drugs and white slaves trafficking Kosovo.
And of course Greece would continue its eternal slumber instead of making fuss about the name of Macedonia... Just in case you don't know, Alexander the Great as well as the whole of Macedon were not Hellenes, though nobody knows who.
Could they have been Illyrs? Wow, I'd better not give ideas to Albanians....
The language of Bosnia is the same language spoken in Montenegro, Croatia and Serbia: the Serbo-Croatian language. No subtitles are needed if movies of any of these 4 countrys play in each others’ theaters.
And the biggest problem of Bosnia since 2006 is called… Milorad Dodik.
@relunctant
why be so blind to Russia BTW ?
@ No Mist:
"why to be so blind to Russia?"
Russia makes the impression of a great power... and scarcely makes anything else.
> "Russia makes the impression of a great power... and scarcely makes anything else."
it also meddles in neighbors affairs, forces many others to toe its line using gas and other things as tools. it favors some of the ethnicities over others thereby introducing an outside factor in much of the regional conflicts (i am talking of balkans), it is hostile to some other groups for no sane reason except to enhance its 'strategic depth' ...
doesn't look like "scarcely makes anything else" to me
What a mess. The European Union can be proud of its achievements
!. A union of Europe with a big hole in the middle
2. A union with 10 differnet currencies.
3. A tower of Babel in Brussels signifying nothing.
4. A foreign policy based on individual countries' quirks.
5. 27 Central Banks
6. Netherlands pouting about Serbia, Greece pouting about Macedonia, Germany pouting about Greece, Slovenia pouting about Croatia, France led by an egomaniac, Italy led by a sex maniac.
7. Kosovo, the EU Rosemary's Baby with parents in a state of denial.
8. Eulex an organisation that can't walk and chew gum at the same time.
9. Playtime and posturing in the European parliament
This is an entity to build a future on?
Pathetic.
@ No Mist:
Russia plays the Balkan card for her imperialistic ends for centuries, there is no surprise here. Even her so called "war of liberation" against the Ottoman Empire in 1877-78 become a disaster for Bulgaria, allegedly the beneficiary of the whole operation.
But during the EU-NATO war of distraction against the sovereign state of Yugoslavia all the Russians were able to do was a PR stunt of their "peace keepers" making a charge trek to Pristina, if I recall it rightly, and beating NATO troops to it. So what?
If Federation of Yugoslavia was any good it wouldn't just fall appart like it did. Germany, NATO or Russia regardless. EU has been in the making since the fifties and it is still a squeeky creation, Yugoslavia was formed overnight for the reasons that might have been seen as valid at the time, but all too soon proved to be a big mistake. For some.
Response to MaGioZal:
MaGioZal stated that
"The language of Bosnia is the same language spoken in Montenegro, Croatia and Serbia: the Serbo-Croatian language. No subtitles are needed if movies of any of these 4 countrys play in each others’ theaters."
This is simply incorrect. Bosnia and Herzegovina has three officially recognized national languages: Bosnian, Croatian, and Serbian. No language called "Serbo-Croatian" exists in Bosnia-Herzegovina or anywhere else in the Balkans or in the world. Most Bosnian people inside the coutnry and in the diaspora speak the Bosnian language. Large minorities speak the Croatian and Serbian languages. The three (four if you count Montenegrin) laguages are completely interchangable and mutually understandable except for different accents and slight differences in vocabulary and grammar.
Since the break up of Yugoslavia it was properly deemed unfair to call a language that four peoples spoke interchangably by the name of two of those peoples (i.e. Serbian and Croatian). If the Serbian and Croatian people claimed to have their own national languages then the Bosnian and Montenegrin people also had a right to demand that their national languages be recognized as being independent and valid.
The Bosnian language has exited for centuries and references to it as well as books written about it can be found dating back over hundres of years. The Bosnian language has been completely accepted by the internatioinal community where Bosnian is an official U.N. language and inside of Bosnia-Herzegovina it is recognized as a national language (alongside Croatian and Serbian).
The Montenegrin language is not yet fully accepted by the international community but over time if a large enough number of Montenegrin people state that they speak the language and demand that it be recognized it will be recognized as a seperate language.
Even though the languages are for all practical reasons different dialects of a common ancient language the only way to treat people equaly and respect the national rights of the different national and ethnic groups is to call them seperate languages that are interchangable and mutually understandable to most people living in the region. Every national group has a right to have its own language and homeland in order to protect their continued existance as a nation, their culture, tradition, and national rights.