Oil to push Ghana growth near 12 percent in 2011
Published: Feb 24, 2011 22:19 Updated: Feb 24, 2011 22:19
ACCRA: The onset of oil production should push Ghana's economic growth to 12 percent this year, but inflation looks set to creep nearer double digits, a Reuters survey showed on Thursday.
Ghana looks set to be Africa's fastest growing country in 2011 because of the oil flowing since December from the offshore Jubilee field.
A poll of ten economists put Ghana's increase in gross domestic product at a median 12.1 percent in 2011, easing to 7.4 percent in 2012.
That compares to the government's projection of 12.3 percent for 2011 and the International Monetary Fund's 13.4 percent, which would make the West African state one of the fastest growing countries in the world.
Given that other main exports are gold - near record highs on global risk and inflation worries - and cocoa - close to a 32-year-high due to unrest in neighbouring Ivory Coast - Africa's star performer can hardly go wrong.
"The coming on stream of oil production, combined with higher oil prices and a positive outlook for gold and cocoa, should lead to a substantial narrowing of the trade deficit, as exports receive a considerable injection," said NKC independent economist Jacques Verreynne.
But consumer price inflation, which the government managed to bring to single digits in 2010 for the first time in nearly three years, looks set to climb because of increased economic activity, wage rises and utility price hikes.
It rose to 9.08 in January, the first increase in 19 months, and poll forecasts were for it to average 9.6 percent in 2011 and 9.2 percent in 2012.
The central bank last Friday held the key policy rate for a third time at 13.5 percent, citing "slightly elevated" inflation risks.
Ghana last November leapt into the world ranking of middle-income countries with a new measure of its economy that added over 60 percent to gross domestic product by better reflecting growth areas such as mobile telephony.