Egypt Fast Tracks Elections

Egypt's Supreme Military Council has set the referendum on constitutional amendments for March 19, with Parliamentary elections in June and Presidential elections six weeks later. It's definitely a fast track, but there will be many questions: will the State of Emergency be lifted before the vote?
Who can run?

Another good question recently addressed by The Arabist: "Whose candidate is Amr Moussa?"

More later.

The Picture of Dorian Gray

None of us look like we did 42 years ago, but really, this is the Picture of Dorian Gray. The beret worked better, too. What would Nasser say today?

National Unity Government in Yemen?

Al Jazeera English is reporting that President Salih will name a National Unity Government in Yemen within the next 24 hours. This comes, of course, after the big Hashid tribal confederation's leader bailed on him over the weekend, as he continues to lose allies.

If it seems like you've seen this plot before, it's the same pattern we saw with Ben Ali and Mubarak: try to ignore the demands and/or blame the media until the people's anger has reached a boil, and then make a half-measure concession that might have saved your job if you'd made it a month earlier, but is now a day late and a dollar short. (He had also already made the pledge not to run for another term, as had Ben Ali and Mubarak.) Perhaps it's not too late for Salih, but the pattern is familiar and the concessions very late in coming.

Qadhafi, of course, took a far bloodier route, but there are, or until the past few days were, no competing centers of power in Libya.

Bahraini Opposition MPs Quit

Eighteen Bahraini MPs from the opposition, nearly half of the 40-seat Parliament, have resigned. Another reminder that despite the intense focus on Libya, the protests continue elsewhere, with Yemen and Bahrain at the forefront, but with stirrings in Oman and even Saudi Arabia. This roller coaster ride may be just beginning.

Wisdom from Fouad Ajami(!)

Professor Fouad Ajami ( a neighbor of ours since Johns Hopkins SAIS is just across our back alley from MEI) has, in recent decades, been something of a darling of the neocons, since he has long been a critic of certain aspects of the Arab and Islamic worlds. In the neocon pantheon of favorite Middle East experts he hasn't ranked far below Bernard Lewis. But watching him on CNN in recent weeks, his enthusiasm for the revolutionary fervor sweeping the Arab world has been both unmistakable and pretty close to my own. His New York Times op-ed piece, "How the Arabs Turned Shame into Liberty," even contains the following:

There is no overstating the importance of the fact that these Arab revolutions are the works of the Arabs themselves. No foreign gunboats were coming to the rescue, the cause of their emancipation would stand or fall on its own. Intuitively, these protesters understood that the rulers had been sly, that they had convinced the Western democracies that it was either the tyrants’ writ or the prospect of mayhem and chaos.

Amen. Hardly the old neocon argument that we must bring democracy to the Middle East. I'm not sure what the neocons will think of Ajami's recent comments, but I find them refreshing.

Who Dares, Wins: SAS Pulls Oil Workers Out of Libya

Britain has mounted an air rescue of British oil workers from Libyan oilfields, in a mission organized by the Special Air Service (SAS), Britain's special operations elite. If we're to believe the Daily Mirror, it was organized using SAS veterans now working as security guards in the Middle East.

The SAS, whose motto, "Who Dares, Wins" seems appropriate here, is returning to the place of its birth: it came into being in the North African campaign in World War II (early SAS troops at left), raiding deep into Libya behind German and Italian lines, along with the Long Range Desert Group. Pioneers of special operations, they are now serving a much reduced Britain, but they still dare, and seem to have won again.

Meanwhile, Back in Tunis . . . Ghannouchi Quits; Replacement is 84

Tunisian Prime Minister Mohamed Ghannouchi resigned today. Protesters have been demanding he step down almost since the departure of Ben Ali, since he is a longtime staple of the old regime. Protesters reportedly cheered his departure.

Of course, the government promptly appointed Beji Caid-Essebsi to replace him. (Link is in French.) Caid-Essebsi, who is 84 years old, was variously Interior, Defense, and Foreign Minister in Habib Bourguiba's day, having served Bourguiba from independence in 1956. Then he headed the Chamber of Deputies under Ben Ali, till leaving government in the mid-1990s.

In other words, the ideal candidate to represent the youth revolution. I guess they couldn't find anyone left over from the days of the Beylicate.

Yemen: Salih Loses the Tribes

Remember this picture I posted a few days ago? The fourth man there, ‘Ali ‘Abdullah Salih, is getting even lonelier. Hussein ‘Abdullah al-Ahmar, head of the Hashid tribal confederation and son of a very powerful father until his death a few years ago, has jumped ship. Salih's own native tribe, which is allied with the much more powerful Hashid, is also protesting, and the other big northern tribal confederation, the Bakil, was reportedly present as well. The southern part of the country is already alienated; if Salih loses the big northern tribes, it may be time for that guesthouse in Jidda.

I suspect the news networks now can figure out where they need to deploy as soon as Libya wraps up.

Mixed Signals in Cairo?

With so much attention focused on Libya, it's worth a moment to note the curious events of last night and today in Cairo. Last night the military police — that is, uniformed representatives of the ruling military, not the hated security police — broke up the strikers in Tahrir Square and also dispersed demonstrators around the Parliament and Cabinet building, who have been seeking the ouster of Prime Minister Ahmad Rashid. Protesters were also set upon by masked men as well as uniformed military police. Some were tasered, others hit with sticks or short whips. (No shots, thankfully.) People were vowing to come out in strength today, fearing the military had decided to shut the demonstrators down despite backing them in the past. And then, today, the Army apologized. It said the attacks were unauthorized, and no order had been given or will be given to attack the protesters, and that all those detained would be released.

Al-Ahram Online in English here. Blogger Zeinobia with firsthand accounts, photos, and video here. The Higher Military Council continues to post its communiques on its Facebook page, (but only its communiques: don't look for a list of members, still somewhat mysterious); the key apology communique is here (in Arabic).

At this point I don't know how to read this. A division within the Military Council? A rogue military police commander? A misunderstood order? Something more sinister? It's worth watching as the apology seems very unusual, and its contrite tone puzzling if reassuring.

Historical Ironies: The USS Enterprise

There are many ironies about the present situation; I already noted Libya's place in the history of aerial bombing. With talk of establishing a possible no-fly zone (some of the issues involved are discussed here), one of the problems involved is that the US has no carrier group in the Mediterranean at this time. The one that was there, the USS Enterprise, is being transferred to an Indian Ocean deployment and is somewhere en route, perhaps in the Red Sea. A no-fly enforcement would need a carrier (though France, Italy and Spain could also provide carriers), and the nearest American one would be the Enterprise. It's the second oldest commissioned ship in the Navy and is scheduled for decommissioning. (It's actually the oldest operational ship: the oldest on the commissioned list is Old Ironsides. Enterprise, the first nuclear powered carrier, has been in service since 1961.)

If the Enterprise were to deploy off Libya, it would evoke memories of the first US vessel of that name, which played an important role in the First Barbary War. The picture above is of that original Enterprise capturing the Tripolitan corsair Tripoli off Malta on 1801. There have been many successor ships in the Navy to bear the name, and if Star Trek is any guide, will continue to be.

I have some doubts about how useful military power may be in this situation, and am not sure it's time to return to "the shores of Tripoli." But when I checked on what our nearest carrier group was, I was amused by the historical irony. A similar echo of the Barbary Wars occurred in 2009 when the USS Bainbridge, named for a hero of that war, engaged Somali pirates.

A Troubled Friday

The bloodshed is continuing in Tripoli today, but there is unrest in a lot of other places, including reports of armed men trying to break up the strike in Tahrir Square in Cairo, and the Army is apparently blocking access to demonstrators near the Egyptian Parliament. We may be seeing a new phase of the crisis in Egypt, as demonstrators opposed to Prime Minister Ahmad Rashid may be confronting the Army. The picture is still unclear, but I'll try to post more later when the dust settles.

Qadhafi: Mercurial, Eccentric, or "Just Plain Nuts?"

I really hope I don't get a copyright takedown demand for publishing a favorite Gary Larson Far Side cartoon (used purely for editorial purposes), at left, but Brother Leader's rant on a TV call-in show yesterday raises (and hardly for the first time) the question of the man's grip on reality. His worldview is a bit askew at the best of times, assuming this is his home planet. But as the circle closes on his hill at Little Bighorn, his public statements have grown exceeding strange.

I haven't seen a full English transcript, or even a full Arabic one, of his call-in stream-of-consciousness conspiracy theory, since he tends to defeat translators (it's said the simultaneous translator of his UN address quit at about an hour in). But at one point or another he seems to have asserted ("seems to" since no one ever gets all the points he touches on in any language) that:

• Usama bin Ladin is the instigator of the rebellion.
• In league, of course, with the United States.
• (His earlier speech included Israel and Al Jazeera) so we have the old US-Bin Ladin-Israeli-Al Jazeera axis.
• All the protesters are on drugs, and under 20 years old to avoid legal responsibility.
  
• Bin Ladin and al-Qa‘ida put drugs in Libyans' coffee, in mosques, to drug them into rebellion. One version I saw said he referred to drugging their Nescafe. Nescafe is often Arabic shorthand for Western versus Arabic coffee, but since Qadhafi has a major feud with Switzerland (which sought to arrest one of his sons for felony assault), and Nestle is Swiss, well, who knows? Why is Nescafe served in mosques?
• He is like Queen Elizabeth II. If he'd actually asserted that he was the Queen, the speech would have been only marginally stranger. (A ditty to the tune of "The people's flag is deepest red": The colonel's flag is deepest green/The colonel thinks he is the Queen.) (Sorry: I just couldn't resist that.)
  

Those who have interviewed him through the years have sometimes suggested he is himself using drugs. I wouldn't know, but the man has always seemed extremely strange. I know the Internet rule known as Godwin's law, which says that the first person in a discussion to compare the opponent to the Nazis loses the argument, but aren't we starting to sound like we're in Führerbunker territory here?

Qadhafi Compares Himself to Queen Elizabeth II

In another rambling rant by telephone over Libyan state TV, Qadhafi has blamed everything on Usama bin Ladin, said all the protesters are on drugs, and

Gaddafi argued that he was a purely "symbolic" leader with no real political power, comparing his role to that played by Queen Elizabeth II in England.

Well, maybe. It would be easier to buy the comparison if Queen Elizabeth sent an army of Gurkhas rampaging through London shooting people, but I don't think she ever has. Does anyone know if Qadhafi has corgis?

Historical Note: Hannibal and Qadhafi

Mu‘ammar Qadhafi named one of his sons Hannibal, presumably because he identifies with the greatest military leader North Africa ever produced, the man who so shook Rome that for centuries Roman mothers would threaten their children with Hannibal ad portos: Hannibal is at the gates. Qadhafi is probably the only person who has ever seen much resemblance between himself and the man who crossed the Alps and ran rampant in Italy.

As Qadhafi threatens to "burn" Libya and "cleanse it house to house," he might think a moment about the last years of his presumed role model. After the end of the Second Punic War and Hannibal's defeat at Zama by Scipio Africanus, he rose to political leadership in Carthage, but seven years after Zama, Rome., alarmed by his growing popularity, insisted he be exiled. Rather than risk the security of Carthage, Hannibal voluntarily exiled himself. (Qadhafi would have more problems, given his lack of friends. He had to go out of his way to deny he was in Venezuela a couple of days ago, so Chavez might take him; Daniel Ortega called him with words of support; and of course he's been good pals with Berlusconi, but Berlusconi has problems of his own right now.)

Not only did Hannibal voluntarily exile himself, but after providing military advice to the Seleucids and other eastern Mediterranean rulers, Rome's eastward conquest eventually brought him into their purview once again. As Rome sought to capture him, he took poison, reputedly saying, "Let us relieve the Romans from the anxiety they have so long experienced, since they think it tries their patience too much to wait for an old man's death." Perhaps some encrusted legend has attached, but it is a better exit than burning your own country.

A little more Qadhafi-esque ego, however, turns up in a famous ancient anecdote told by Livy and most likely apocryphal, but which I'm going to tell anyway. According to the story, the victor of Zama, Scipio Africanus, was visiting the eastern court where Hannibal was then employed, and encountered his old nemesis. (There's no other historical record of such a visit by Scipio, but why ruin a good story with fact?) I'm paraphrasing from memory here, but the story is that Scipio supposedly asked Hannibal, military man to military man, who he considered to be the greatest general who had ever lived. Hannibal responded, Alexander the Great. Scipio then asked, who did he rank second? Hannibal said, well, I consider myself second to Alexander. Scipio then said, but, I defeated you. And Hannibal responded, "If you had not defeated me, I would have ranked myself even above Alexander."

Though the anecdote is probably not historical, the ego is the only thing Qadhafi shares with Hannibal. The difference is that Hannibal won the battle of Cannae, while all Qadhafi ever took was the radio station in 1969. Having named a son for Hannibal, he might pay more attention to Hannibal's greatest moment, his graceful exit to save his native country. Instead, it appears to be Qadhafi himself, not his country's foreign foes, whose motto is Libya delenda est.

Wasat: A Challenge to the Brotherhood?

For a great many years a moderate Islamist party in Egypt, the Wasat (center or centrist) Party has sought official recognition, which has been consistently denied. Formed by younger, disillusioned members of the Muslim Brotherhood, it could very well prove the moderate alternative to the Brotherhood that the Mubarak regime always kept from emerging, so as to make the Brotherhood the sole face of Islamist politics. Since the fall of Mubarak, the Wasat Party, which likes to compare itself to Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) has finally won recognition.

Meanwhile, the Muslim Brotherhood itself is now preparing to form its own political party, apparently to be called the Freedom and Justice Party.

The MOI Fire in Cairo

There was a fire at the Ministry of the Interior today in Cairo. It apparently caused major damage to a building where evidence was kept. Some reports say it was set by protesting police officers, but needless to say there are conspiracy theories suggesting that the fire was an attempt to destroy records that could incriminate the security services.

Is the Noose Tightening?

While the Libyan authorities and the African mercenary gunmen imported by the regime have been killing indiscriminately in Tripoli, there are indications that, outside the capital, revolutionary forces are gaining ground. If present trends continue, Qadhafi may find himself in control of little beyond the capital, and the capital itself a charnel house of his own making.

Eastern Libya — Cyrenaica — seems mostly under the control of the rebels and their defected military allies. Now the tide appears to be moving west. There were reports today that Misurata had fallen, and that demonstrators were fighting for Sabratha and Zwara. There was heavy fighting at Tajura, just outside Tripoli. An unconfirmed broadcast claimed that the Kufra Oasis was in rebel hands.

All this could swing back in the government's favor.An Al Jazeera reporter said an Air Force major had reported that the Armed Forces balked when 4,000 African mercenaries were imported by the regime to fire on protesters; the presence of armed non-Libyans makes it harder for the Army to step in, as it did in Tunisia and Egypt.

Reports that Qadhafi's daughter ‘A'isha was on a private jet that was turned away by both Beirut and Malta raise questions as to whether the family is running for cover, even as Qadhafi himself was vowing to "cleanse Libya house to house," apparently threatening to kill his own population. His bizarre, rambling diatribe yesterday suggests a man as out of touch as he is out of control, giving orders from his bunker to troops he doesn't have . . . now why does that sound familiar? Add to this reports that he might sabotage the oilfields or pipelines if he falls, bringing down the temple, like Samson, on his own head and his country's, and you have a grim picture.

I'm not entirely sure what the outside world can do. He's already blamed the US and Israel for inciting the uprising (allied as they are, of course, with Al Jazeera); the more outside pressure, the more he will justify his actions as resistance to neocolonialism, and portray the demonstrators as foreign puppets. Still, sanctions and a no-fly zone to bring down the gunships firing on demonstrators might help.

The world is watching with horror. This cannot end well for Qadhafi now, but how many of his own countrymen have to die as he lashes out?

Libya's Flag War

In the Tunisian and Egyptian revolutions, the national flag was clearly co-opted by the demonstrators, constantly waved to proclaim their loyalty to the homeland, thus defusing any claims by the regimes that these demonstrators were unpatriotic. The ongoing demonstrations in Bahrain, Yemen, and as far as I can tell Algeria, have also adopted the national flag as their symbol.

But something quite different is happening in Libya.The flag used from Libyan independence in 1951 until Qadhafi's revolution of 1969 (above) has been waved by many of the demonstrators, and in the last few days as Libya's diplomatic corps has jumped ship, many Libyan Embassies and consulates abroad have raised the old flag instead of the unadorned green banner of Qadhafi's Jamahiriyya (right).

This is not, presumably, nostalgia for the Sanusi monarchy overthrown in 1969, but for a flag that was distinctively Libyan. The old flag had the star and crescent in a tricolor (sometimes said to stand for Tripolitania, Cyrenaica, and Fezzan). The current flag looks more like a semaphore flag than a national ensign: it's the world's only national flag consisting of only one color and no other insignia.

Between 1969 and the adoption of the Jamahiriyya flag in 1977 Libya used two other flags. The first was a horizontal tricolor in the red, white and black of the old Arab revolt flag (left), which except for its dimensions was pretty much identical to the flag Yemen uses today. Given the latter fact, it isn't a good candidate for revival.

Then from 1972 until 1977, Libya joined with Egypt and Syria in the Federation of Arab Republics, which was pretty evanescent except for the three countries adopting virtually identical flags, with the Falcon of Qureish on each, and differing only in the name under the falcon. (The illustration is actually the version with Egypt's inscription, predecessor to the present Egyptian flag which replaced the Falcon of Qureish with the Eagle of Saladin.)

All three countries later changed their flags, but Qadhafi's solid green banner seems the odd one out. I can only guess why the first flag of independent Libya has become the emblem of the revolt, but I suspect it's the one unambiguously Libyan flag in the lot.

A Historical Note: Libya and Aerial Bombing

The use of combat aircraft against civilian protesters in Libya brings to mind a couple of historical ironies concerning aerial bombing and Libya.

On November 1, 1911, only eight years after the Wright Brothers first flew, the first aerial bomb dropped from an airplane in anger was dropped by an Italian pilot on Turkish positions during the Italo-Turkish war in Libya. At right is a photo of Italian dirigibles dropping bombs on Turkish positions.

After the defeat of Turkey, Italy waged a long counterinsurgency campaign against the Libyan resistance leader Omar Mukhtar. During the long period of pacification (throughout the 1920s), Italy regularly used aerial bombing against Libyan resistance. (Britain also used aerial bombing against Iraqi villages in 1920-21.)

So aerial bombing of civilians in Libya is not new; it's just it hasn't been seen since the fall of Italian fascism.

Why are These Men Smiling?

The Enduring America blog has this great picture and is holding a caption contest here.