On Monday, Senator John McCain (R-AZ) stated, “The revolution in Tunisia has been very successful and it has become a model for the region. We stand ready to provide training to help Tunisia’s military to provide security.” Senator Joe Lieberman (D-CT) also lauded the role of the Tunisian military and condemned the violence in Libya, “The Tunisian military played a constructive role…but the military in Libya has been against the people. That is unacceptable.” Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu also stated that Tunisia has an opportunity to provide a positive model for countries seeking reform, “if it can avoid pitfalls on the path to elections.” He calls on the interim government to make constitutional changes and set up institutions to ensure the rule of law for the election: “It is very important that these processes are entertained in a way that everybody in this society can believe in and have trust in.”
Andrew Barwig, writing at Foreign Policy, argues that we need to pay careful attention to new electoral rules in Egypt, Tunisia, and Yemen to ensure that the structure and rules of the game are changed and that the transitional electoral systems do not simply diffuse power and reinforce clientelism. He states that the laws may play a significant role in stifling democratic change citing examples of past electoral reform in Jordan and Tunisia which allowed Ben Ali and Jordan’s monarchy to maintain control over their parliaments. He also states that we should be cautious in promoting proportional representation as it “could result in fractious legislative bodies that are unable to push for more far-reaching constitutional reforms” and may hinder the formation of electoral alliances. He agrees with Marwan Muasher’s assessment that unless new electoral laws actually strengthen elected parliaments, “the ruse of electoral reform may repeat itself,” but cautions against liberal electoral reforms that allow open party lists, multi-member districts and preferential voting as they may allow old party elites a ticket back to power.
Bahieddin Hassan, Director of the Cairo Center for Human Rights, wrote in a recent editorial that although Mubarak may be gone, “the textbook police state which he built up over the years, and that wasn’t much different from that of Tunisia, is still with us.” Hassan believes that the main task of the transition is to “dismantle the pillars of this police state and to lay the foundations of a secular and democratic regime that respects human rights” which he argues can be achieved by dismantling the institutions and constitutional amendments that helped to legitimize the state. Hassan calls for the constitution to be entirely re-written and states that elections should not take place immediately, because Egypt needs to foster a democratic environment capable of electing leaders who will support a democratic future in Egypt rather than “neo-Mubarakism.”
Speaking on CBS’s Face the Nation this Sunday, Egyptian activist and Nobel Laureate Ahmed Zewailexpressed his optimism for a rapid democratic transition in Egypt with elections possibly taking place by this summer. He also called for the immediate lifting of the emergency law. Responding to the demand, Egyptian Ambassador to the United States, Sameh Shoukry stated: “The Supreme Council has indicated its commitment to lifting the state of emergency. And I believe they will do so as soon as the conditions are appropriate.” When asked about protesters demands for the dissolution of the cabinet, Shoukry responded by stating that given the current economic and security situation the dissolution of the cabinet is difficult.
U.S. Senator John McCain, also speaking on Face the Nation, stated that “We should have seen this coming when the Egyptian government failed to move forward with a process of democratization. The last election was particularly flawed.” He also criticized President Barack Obama for failing to take a stance against Iran during protests in 2009. McCain cautions that elections are not the end of the story in Egypt, “It is the modalities. It is the education of voters. It’s all the things that go to a free ad fair elections” which will need to be addressed especially to prevent any “extremist element” from hijacking the election. McCain also stated, “this revolution is a direct repudiation of al Qaeda” and expressed concern that similar demonstrations in Iran and Syria will face severe government crackdown. He called on Iranians to “let your people have peaceful demonstrations” and expressed his optimism over the spread of democratic revolution throughout the Middle East.
As Egyptian inspired protests have spread across the Arab world, Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayyadannounced on Monday the dissolution of his 24 member cabinet. A cabinet reshuffle has been a goal of Fayyad for some time, as only 16 of the 24 portfolios had been filled, with the cabinet largely being viewed as “dysfunctional.” The posts are to be filled within six weeks. This announcement comes ahead of presidential elections scheduled to be held by September. Presidential elections had been put on permanent hold since 2009, when current Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas’s term was to have ended, in order to avoid a power vacuum after Hamas took power in the Gaza Strip in 2007.
Meanwhile, chief Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat has resigned as a result of revelations from the “Palestine Papers” released by Al-Jazeera and The Guardian. Erekat said he hoped his stepping down would set a model of transparency in Palestinian governance. He went on to accuse Qatar, the primary financier of Al-Jazeera and home to the network’s headquarters, of investing in Israeli settlements in the West Bank.
On Sunday, Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman JohnKerry (D-MA) urged Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak to address his nation and clarify what the timetable and process for transition will be. ”The most important thing now,” Kerry said, “is to guarantee the process is in place where there are free and fair elections.” Speaking on NPR on Sunday, U.S Secretary of State Hillary Clintonstated that she had spoken to Egyptian Vice President OmarSuleiman and pressed him to issue timelines and ensure that the dialogue process is transparent and meaningful and leads to concrete steps towards transition. Clinton also called on other Arab leaders to implement economic and political reform. Speaking to Egyptian Prime Minister AhmedShafik on Saturday, Clinton also emphasized the need to ensure that the legitimate aspirations of the Egyptian people are met and that a broad cross-section of civil society and political actors are involved in the transition process.
On Monday, Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir announced his acceptance of the referendum results and his commitment to maintaining good relations between the North and the South. Southern Leader Salva Kiir welcomed al-Bashir’s comments. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clintoncongratulated northern and southern leaders for “facilitating a peaceful and orderly vote” and commended the Government of Sudan for accepting the outcome. She expressed U.S. support during the upcoming transition process and called on the Government of South Sudan to “launch a process of inclusive governance and take steps to improve good governance and service delivery” and to form strong security and economic relations with the North. Clinton also announced that the U.S. is initiating the process of withdrawing Sudan’s State Sponsor of Terrorism designation.
Update: President Barack Obama has stated that the U.S. will officially recognize South Sudan in July.
Larry Diamond, in an op-ed piece for The Washington Post, outlines the steps needed for Egypt to transform into a stable and lasting democracy. Using examples from other nations who have made the transitions from authoritarianism to democracy, Diamond states that unity of the opposition is paramount to prevent autocrats from re-consolidating power as a splintered opposition allows corrupt rulers to essentially steal elections. He says that Egypt is lucky in that Mohammed ElBaradei seems to be emerging as a unifying figure for disparate opposition groups. Diamond also urges cautions in dealing with remnants of the old regime that are still in place. A new leader for Egypt must be “untainted by the old order” but will not be able to completely wipe away the remaining “pillars of the authoritarian order.” He holds up Brazil and South Africa as model examples of how to deal with such elements. Also necessary, he argues, are constitutional reforms that will allow free and fair elections to take place, while allowing the country to deal with fully re-writing the constitution after such elections. He ends by calling for a transitional government to be inclusive, even if that means including “dubious players” of the old regime: “Transitions are full of opportunists, charlatans and erstwhile autocrats who enter the new political field with no commitment to democracy. Every democratic transition that has endured […] has tread this path.”
On Friday, Secretary-General of the Arab League Amr Moussa was reported to be with protesters demanding the resignation of president Hosni Mubarak at Cairo’s Tahrir Square. The former foreign minister of Egypt has said he was “at the disposal” of the Egyptian people, expressing his readiness to play a role should a transitional governing body be formed and stating that he would consider running for president in September. Moussa is one of the most commonly-approved potential presidential candidates by Egyptians. On Thursday, the Arab League called for an investigation into the violence in Tahrir square between pro and anti-government protesters.
On Thursday, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in partnership with the Project on Middle East Democracy (POMED) hosted a discussion on the rapidly evolving crisis in Egypt. Michele Dunne, Senior Associate in the Middle East Program at Carnegie Endowment moderated the event and introduced the panelists: Amr Hamzawy, Research Director and Senior Associate of the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut who joined the panelists from Midan Tahrir in Cairo; Bahey al-Din Hassan, director of the Cairo Institute for Human Rights Studies; and Neil Hicks, advisor to Human Rights First.
To read full notes, continue below or click here for pdf.
On Thursday, Egypt’s Al-Azhar spokesman Mohmaed Refaa al-Tahtawy resigned from his post in objection to the current government attacks on protesters stating that Islam does not accept injustice. He has joined protesters calling for the resignation of President Hosni Mubarak and has called for the arrest and trial for those who paid thugs to attack protesters on Wednesday night where a reported 35 people have died and over 1000 were injured. Tahtawy also called for a civil state where people get a real chance to participate and choose their representatives.
On Thursday, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clintoncondemned attacks on journalists, protesters, and human rights activists stating, “It is in times of crisis that governments must demonstrate their adherence to universal values. There is a clear responsibility by the Egyptian government, including the army, to protect those threatened and hold accountable those responsible for these attacks.” She also echoed Egyptian Vice President Omar Suleiman’s call for free and fair presidential elections and urged “the government and a broad and credible representation of Egypt’s opposition, civil society and political factions to begin, immediately, serious negotiations on a peaceful and orderly transition.”
Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee John Kerry (D-MA) and Senator John McCain have cosponsored a resolution calling on Egypt President Hosni Mubarak to “immediately begin an orderly and peaceful transition to a democratic political system,” including “the transfer of power to an inclusive interim caretaker government in coordination with leaders from Egypt’s opposition, civil society and military.” While they hope that Egypt will “hold free, fair, and internationally credible elections this year,” they also expressed their “concern over any organization that espouses an extremist ideology, including the Muslim Brotherhood.” They also noted that it is vitally important that any new government continue “to fulfill its international obligations, including commitments under the Egypt-Israel Peace Treaty.”
On Wednesday, McCain also released a statement calling for Mubarak’s resignation: “The rapidly deteriorating situation in Egypt leads me to the conclusion that President Mubarak needs to step down and relinquish power…I urge President Mubarak to transfer power to a caretaker administration that includes members of Egypt’s military, government, civil society, and pro-democracy opposition, which can lead the country to free, fair, and internationally credible elections this year as part of a real transition to democracy.” While he remained concerned about the role of the Muslim Brotherhood, he stated that “Egypt must have a democratic future. It is the will of the Egyptian people. It is in the interest of the United States. And the greatest contribution that President Mubarak can make to the cause of democracy in his country is to remove himself from power.”
On Wednesday, former U.S. Ambassador Frank G. Wisner returned to Washington with an administration official saying that he was no longer able to be an effective conduit to Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak after their private conversations were leaked. U.S. Ambassador Margaret Scobey is now leading discussions and conveying U.S. wishes for the transition process to being as as soon as possible. Administration officials told ABC News that President Barack Obama is “very concerned” that Mubarak may not begin the process or an orderly transfer of power as quickly as he needs to. In a press briefing on Wednesday, White House spokesman RobertGibbs made clear that the administration expects transition to begin now: “What the people of Egypt want to see is not some process that starts a week, a month or several months from now…There are reforms that need to be undertaken, and there are opposition entities that have to be included in the conversations as we move toward free and fair elections that we’ve advocated for quite some time.” State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley echoed Gibbs’ remarks stating, “The longer that this goes unresolved, the greater the danger of further violence. And it is imperative that this process begin now…The people have spoken, and it’s time for Egypt and those officials who want to play a role in Egypt’s future to respond significantly.”
On Tuesday, President Barack Obama made a statement on the events in Egypt and his conversations with President Hosni Mubarak. Obama began by praising the Egyptian military for its restraint and professionalism: “I urge the military to continue its efforts to ensure this time of change is peaceful.”
He went on to say that the U.S. “stands for freedom of information and expression” and stated that going forward the U.S. will continue to support democracy. “We have spoken out on behalf of the need for change,” he said and mentioned that in conversations with Mubarak he expressed that “those of us who are privileged to serve in positions of power, do so at the will of the people.” Obama stated that “Mubarak recognizes that the status quo is not sustainable.”
He also stated that it is not the role of any country to determine Egypt’s leaders: “To the people of Egypt, particularly the young people of Egypt, I want to be clear: we hear your voices…and I believe that you will determine your own destiny.” Obama also stressed that, “Orderly transition must be meaningful, must be peaceful, and must begin now...the process of change should lead to elections that are free and fair and meet the aspirations of the people… There will be difficult days ahead. Many questions remain unanswered. But I am confident Egyptian people will find those answers…and the U.S. stands ready to assist the Egyptian people in the aftermath of these protests.
Speaking at a hearing at the Senate Foreign Relations Committeee, Chairman John Kerry (D-MA) stated that he believed “it is vital for President Mubarak to help transform this moment into the new Egypt and that he needs to address the nation and embrace the people’s aspirations.” President Hosni Mubarak also needs to say that neither he nor his son will be candidates for election or reelection in the presidential elections.
Following, Mubarak’s announcement Kerry released a statement saying: “This was an important announcement by President Mubarak to bring his presidency to an end and pledge that free and fair elections will be held. I believe that President Mubarak should now work with the military and civil society to establish an interim caretaker government.” He added though, “it remains to be seen whether this is enough to satisfy the demands of the Egyptian people for change “and that much work remains to be done to turn this auspicious moment into lasting peace and prosperity” as the country will prepare for elections and peaceful transition. He called on the opposition leaders “to develop a process that will ensure all of Egypt’s voices are heard.”
On Tuesday, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak addressed the Egyptian people saying, “The events of the past days have forced us to choose between two roads: chaos and stability.” He stated that he instructed Vice President Omar Suleiman “to engage with all the opposition forces in dialogue” to materialize the lawful demands of the people and restore security. However, he said, “certain political forces are refusing to join dialogue.”
Mubarak went on to say that he never sought power or influence, “I am one of the armed forces personnel. It is not in my nature to abandon or betray responsibility to restore security and stability…My job is to pave the way for the coming elections. I did not intend to run for the coming presidency. I have exhausted my life serving Egypt and its people…and am keen on ending my career for the sake of the nation.”
Mubarak stated that in the few months remaining of his term, he will work for a peaceful transition in power and called for parliament to debate amendments to Articles 76 and 77 on the qualifications for candidacy of president and ensure that all political parties to participate. He also stated that parliament should abide by the rulings from Constitution Court in regards to findings on past elections. Mubarak also instructed the police apparatus to undertake its duty to “protect the citizens, respect their rights, freedom, and dignity” and to arrest outlaws who perpetuated mayhem and chaos.
In closing, he stated that he is happy to end my career in a manner that is “applicable to God and my fellow citizens” and takes pride in the long years he has served Egypt and its people: “I defended its soil, sovereignty, and interests and I will die on the soil of Egypt. I will be judged by history for my merits and my demerits.”
Observers have noted that Mubarak failed to mention whether he will repeal the emergency law. His demands, Al Jazeera, says “falls short of the demands of protesters; the evidence is there on the streets” where protesters are chanting the word, “Erhal”(Leave in Arabic). Protesters in Tahrir are continuing to call for the regime’s overthrow.
To see a translation of Mubarak’s full speech click here.
The LA Timesreports that that former U.S. Ambassador to Egypt Frank Wisner told Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak that he must step aside and allow a new government to take shape. This message was apparently immediately rebuffed by President Mubarak. The piece also reports that the U.S. urged Mubarak not to be a part of the transition that the U.S. has called for in recent days. These recent developments are the boldest claims made by the Obama Administration since major protests in Egypt began.
The New York Times reports that President Obama has sent a message to Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak that he should not pursue re-election in this years upcoming presidential elections. This decision effectively withdraws U.S. support for President Mubarak, a step that the U.S. Government has been unwilling to make in recent days. They report that this message was conveyed through former U.S. Ambassador to Egypt Frank G. Wisner, who was in Cairo on Tuesday to meet with President Mubarak. This is the firmest step that the Obama administration has made in calling for reforms in Egypt including free and fair elections, but comes short of demanding that Mubarak step aside immediately, the most strident demand of the opposition.
The Palestinian Authority has not held elections since 2006, which has left President Mahmoud Abbas and Prime Minister Salam Fayyad in power beyond their elected terms. Seemingly in response to the current unrest in Egypt, Prime Minister Salam Fayyad’s Cabinet said Tuesday it would set election dates during its next session, which will most likely occur next week. The Palestinian Authority has canceled elections in the past that have allowed for their leaders to stay in power beyond their originally stated term lengths.
