December 14th, 2010 by Evan

On Tuesday, The Heritage Foundation hosted an event marking the released of Walid Phares’ new book “The Coming Revolution: Struggle for Freedom in the Middle East.” Phares is currently a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and a commentator on Middle Eastern affairs for Fox News. John Hilboldt, Director of Lectures and Seminars at Heritage moderated the event.

(To read the full notes, continue below or click here for a pdf.)

Over the last decade pro-democracy activists have taken to the streets in record numbers from Tehran to Beirut, Phrase said. Unfortunately, most analysts in the West have failed to highlight the burgeoning region-wide movement toward democracy, and have instead focused on the threat of religious radicalism. Just as they failed to predict the rise of radical Islam before September 11th, so-called experts have failed to acknowledge the presence of liberal reformers. The purpose of his current book, Phares said, is to elucidate the forces working for democratic change in the Middle East today.

Citing democratic movements in Soviet-era Hungary and the Czechoslovakia, Phares said that while political reform is extremely difficult and takes time, popular movements can challenge seemingly impervious governments. While the situation is different in the Middle East, the “deep human hope” for freedom is the same. Since the end of the Ottoman Caliphate a “brotherhood against democracy” composed of political elites and religious radicals has forced liberals to the margins. Both of these groups want to recreate the authoritarian Caliphate for their own purposes.

During the 1990s, while Western scholars were declaring the “end of history,” people in Sudan, Lebanon, Iran, and Syria were still struggling for greater political freedom. On the whole, the West failed to respond with assistance like it did for Soviet dissidents. After September 11th, Western assistance for democratic movements increased and so did the speed of political reform across the region. If these initiatives change or even end completely, democracy will move forward in the Middle East; there is no turning back, Phares said. The question is what the international community can do to accelerate the process.

Phares highlighted a number of countries where he sees “revolutions” taking place. In Iraq, despite the violence and political upheaval, women, youth, and minorities are driving a “renaissance movement.”  In Iran and Lebanon, the millions of citizens who took to the streets, in 2009 and 2005 respectively, to protest for democratic change have not simply disappeared. Even in war-torn Sudan and Afghanistan, and the rentier Gulf monarchies, Phares said he sees viable democratic movements forming.

According to Phares, women will play an exceptionally important role in the coming democratic revolutions. While many in the West are distracted by debates over headscarves, the reality is that women, regardless of what they wear on their head, are participating in politics in greater numbers. Additionally, the internet will play a significant role in connecting and empowering activists. Finally, diasporas will have an important part in promoting democratic change. Those in exile will set the “agenda for change” across the region, Phares said.

In conclusion, Phares advised policymakers and media outlets in the West to give democratic activists the visibility they deserve and to provide more support directly to NGOs working in the region. Revolutions will happen in the Middle East, Phares said, adding that hopes the US and EU will be on board when they occur. 

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