POMED Notes: “Tunisia and the Arab Malaise”
On Tuesday, the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars hosted a discussion on the uprising in Tunisia and the prospects for the Tunisian example spreading across the Arab World. Dr. Haleh Esfandiari, Director of the Middle East Program at the Wilson Center moderated the event and introduced the speakers: Alan Goulty, former British Ambassador to the Republic of Tunisia and current Senior Scholar at the Woodrow Wilson Center, and David Ottaway, Senior Scholar at the Wilson Center and former Cairo Bureau Chief of the Washington Post.
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Haleh Esfandiari opened the discussion by stating that when planning this event last week, the scholars questioned how relevant the Tunisian uprisings would be this week, but was heartened to learn that not only is it relevant, it is also spreading.
Alan Goulty began by stating that the “intifada” in Tunisia was not seen coming by many western observers despite the fact that diplomatic cables showed that their analysis of Tunisia’s internal problems that plagued the country—such as unemployment, neglect of the interior of the country, intolerance of the opposition, tight restrictions on freedom of speech, and high levels of corruption –were accurate. Goulty muses that it is likely that they knew protests would occur eventually, but were unsure of when it would happen. To other outside observers, however, Tunisia appeared to be doing well; while unemployment was near 14%, the country was doing better than its counterparts in the region with a low birth rate, health care, and high rates of enrollment. The self-immolation of Mohamed Bouazizi, however, was a trigger which “touched a nerve” among Tunisians as the combination of despair and frustration over corruption and police brutality led to an upsurge of emotion and revolution.
The Tunisian government, Goulty states, seemed to be unaware of the frustrations of its people. They remained focused on crushing their opposition and the “Islamist threat.” This made them ignorant of Tunisians’ growing disgust of the “rapaciousness of the First Lady’s family.” Goulty states, “It’s a classic case of nobody telling the emperor that he’s wearing no clothes.” Despite the fact that Ben Ali had informants everywhere, it seems as though no one told him about the growing discontent on the streets. It seems that he was unaware of the early stages of the protests, especially given the extremely tight controls on the press. There are some indications and reports, Goulty says, that Ben Ali did not fully realize the situation until Thursday, when he made his speech. It is also likely that those concessions were made because the Trabelsi family “lost its nerve.”
On the role of the West, Goulty states that there was a lack of interest in the West over Tunisia and many of our interests were tied with visits to Algeria and Morocco and this made us complacent. When pushing for human rights, we were routinely ignored leading officials to not try hard enough. Sanctions also seemed extreme given that conditions in other countries nearby were much worse. The West also empathized with Tunisia against the Islamists, despite the fact they were moderate and highly oppressed. Goulty also noted that Ben Ali’s security apparatus made sure embassy officials knew that they had their eyes on them by breaking into their homes, and subtly threatening staff. The EU agreement seemed to work at the time as well; it appeared to be helping Tunisia economically.
Goulty stated that despite the good which comes out of Ben Ali’s policy reversals, like the end to censorship, there are many other things Tunisia needs to be concerned about moving forward such as whether the opposition can pull together fast enough and how to prevent a full economic collapse in the country. First and foremost, there is the fact that the Trabelsi family controlled nearly 50% of the economy, secondly the country has high unemployment and the transitional government has announced new unemployment benefits which are likely to be unsustainable, and in addition to that, there were a large number of Tunisians employed by the police force.
David Ottaway began by stating that it has been a long time since the North Africa states played a substantial role in the Middle East, but already you are seeing movements to emulate the Tunisians. Nowhere is this clearer, Ottaway says, than in Egypt where even the state government newspaper, Al Ahram, was doing a minute by minute coverage of the events on Tuesday.
The revolutions, he says, have had a clear impact on nearly all Arab governments. Many of them reversed policy to raise prices on subsidies and actually reduced them and increased salaries of workers. Leaders of Arab countries including, Egypt, Libya, Sudan and Yemen have all sought to show the marked differences between their countries and Tunisia and stating that they are different, free and democratic. Amr Moussa, Secretary-General of the Arab League stated that the “Arab soul is broken.” And outside analysts say the time is ripe for revolution to take place across the Arab world. But are they? Ottaway says this remains unclear and that the situation in each country is different and there are questions of finding effective revolutionary leaders: can human rights activists connect to the people’s economic discontent effectively?
In the case of Algeria, Ottaway states: “Algeria is not going to blow.” Last year, alone, they had a documented 11,500 uprisings; protests there are not rate. Additionally, the Muslim Brotherhood, the main opposition, has been in the government since 1995 and has supported President Abdelaziz Bouteflika. Egypt, Ottaway says, seems like the next Tunisia given its poor economic conditions, lack of political pluralism, and opposition blocked from government. However, he remarks, Egypt is an extensive police state and suffers from sectarian issues and an apolitical population. He points to protests in 1985 when the country seemed on the verge of revolution, but the movement fizzled. But, Ottaway says, you can’t discount it yet. Yemen may have a revolution he says. And Sudan is definitely a country to watch as it has a tradition of taking to the streets with many parties not included in the political process. Additionally, the secession and loss of oil revenue will be a huge national trauma which will leave the country in a vulnerable position.
When asked about who is in the government now, Goulty stated that it is mixed with 40-50% of the ministers being held over from the former administration. However, some of the opposition members who were appointed have not taken their positions in protest. Others he remarks are very new to the process with the Youth Minister being a former blogger who was involved in the revolution. In an interview the young minister stated, we need some of Ben Ali’s ministers in place because the youth does not know what to do.
In response to a question, both Ottaway and Goulty asserted that it is not possible to develop a predictive model of when a Middle Eastern state or leader will be overthrown. They stated, responding to another question as well, that this was a youth movement that progressed through the use of social media.
When asked about the role of the army, Goulty stated that they are small and not very powerful. However, their defiance of Ben Ali’s command, Goulty speculates, may lead to the head of the army being convinced to lead if the opposition cannot reach a consensus.
Answering a question, Goulty remarked, that the economic issues facing the Middle East are the same ones they’ve been dealing with for decades. 1/3 of the budget in countries like Jordan and Egypt are subsidies, and while they have tried to decrease them, they have done so unsuccessfully. The governments are afraid that they will be out of power if they cut them and are unsure what to do. The Gulf States, Goulty remarks, may need to help them relieve the pain.
Responding to a question about the role of outside groups, Ottaway stated, “The time has come for modesty in the West.” It is not our place, he said, to take control and have a Western led democracy. Instead we need to stand back and support the outcome while also keeping pressure on groups in the government and call out attempts to backslide. He also noted that we need to keep an eye on Gaddafi who will try to stir up trouble in the country and may give his support to former members of the RCD.