House Appropriations Chairman Hal Rogers (R-KY) today introduced a Continuing Resolution to fund the federal government at current rates for three weeks –until April 8 – while cutting $6 billion in spending. The legislation (H.J. Res 48) is the second short-term funding extension to prevent a government shutdown while Congressional negotiations continue on a long-term plan to keep the government running through the end of the fiscal year.
On Friday, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace hosted an event focused on the unrest in the Middle East and what kind of effect it will have on the political situation in Iraq entitled, “Is Iraq Next?” The event was moderated by Marwan Muasher the vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment, where he oversees the Endowment’s research in Washington and Beirut. The event had three speakers: Denise Natali, the Minerva fellow at the Institute for National Strategic Studies, National Defense University; Marina Ottaway, the director of the Carnegie Endowment’s Middle East Program; Henri J. Barkey, a visiting scholar in the Carnegie Middle East Program and the Bernard L. and Bertha F. Cohen Professor at Lehigh University.
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One day after Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh proposed reforms that would change the country’s constitution and transform the government into a parliamentary system by 2012, nearly 100,000 people gathered on the streets outside Sanaa University calling for his immediate resignation. The Christian Science Monitor reports that most Yemenis protesting at the university labeled their desired changes as democratic reforms, “although the exact meaning of those reforms remains a subject of debate.” As the opposition has rapidly grown in many weeks many are concerned about what would happen if indeed Saleh did step down. There are fears that it would not signal a democratic transition, but instead a power vacuum to be filled by another authoritarian.
Friday “Day of Rage” protests that had been organized by pro-democracy campaigners only managed to elicit small demonstrations in eastern provinces of the country. Riyadh, the capital, was heavily patrolled during the day by security forces to prevent any protests gatherings. The previous day saw protests in the eastern city of Qatif, where Saudi Shias protesting for the release of political prisoners, faced off against armed police. Witnesses said the police beat demonstrators and fired percussion bombs in order to scatter the crowds. They also opened fire on the crowd leaving two people injured.
On Tuesday (3/1), George Washington University hosted an event focused on the aftermath of Egypt’s revolution and the future of a democratic transition in Egypt, entitled, “Egypt: After the Revolution.” The speaker was Michele Dunne, co-chair of the bipartisan Working Group on Egypt and Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Michele is a former specialist on Middle East affairs at the U.S. Department of State and White House, she served in assignments including the National Security Council staff, the Secretary of State’s Policy Planning Staff, the U.S. Embassy in Cairo amongst other positions. Michele is also the editor of the online journal, the Arab Reform Bulletin, and is a current board member at POMED.
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Marwan Muasher, writing at Project Syndicate, discusses how the uprisings in the Arab world have disproven conventional beliefs about the region. The protests have put an end to the belief that “Arabs don’t go into the streets,” an assumption that led governments to believe that they could stall reform. Secondly, the belief that economic liberalization should precede political reform has also been proven incorrect. Economic liberalization that came without the institutions of accountability led to increases in wealth for the elite classes rather than society as a whole, adding to the frustration of protesters. The issue that unites these protest movements, Muasher argues, is discontent over inadequate governance. The uprisings also refute the belief that closed systems are necessary to prevent Islamists from taking power. While they will likely play an important role in Egypt and Tunisia, they are not expected to lead any of the new governments that are formed. Rather, there is an opportunity here to start developing pluralistic systems where all parties and discourses can play a role, he states. Fourth, Muasher argues that the movements show that elections do not equal democracy as Arab leaders use elections to create a façade of democracy and insulate regimes from pressure for genuine reform. Lastly, Muasher states that international community does indeed have a role to play by encouraging political reform and democratic development.
King Mohamed VI announced reforms pledging sweeping constitutional reforms including the election of a prime minister based upon majority rule in the parliament. The prime minister will “be the head of an effective executive branch, who is fully responsible for government, civil service and the implementation of the government’s agenda,” the king said. The king also announced reforms that would include expanded freedoms, an increased role of the judiciary, and a stronger emphasis on democracy and a parliament elected from free and fair elections. The reforms according to the king seek to promote human rights and gender equality, and improve the economic, social and cultural aspects.
Valentina Bartolucci, writing at Open Democracy, states that Morocco continues to show their unique character in comparison to other Middle Eastern countries through these recent reforms. These characteristics include the king’s position as amir al-muminine (Commander of the Faithful), the unknown threat of Islamists, and the kings positive image as the “king of the poor” all help to contribute to his stability and have allowed for space for protests and reforms to take place. Following popular protests and online campaigns for reform, Bartolucci argues that “the call for evolution has indeed been heard” and that “Morocco will continue to be exceptional for at least some time to come.”
The House Subcommittee on State, Foreign Operations, and Related Programs of the House Appropriations Committee held a budget hearing on Thursday, March 10, 2011 for the administrations FY2012 budget request.Subcommittee Chairwoman, Rep. Kay Granger (R-TX), chaired the hearing with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton testifying before the subcommittee.
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On Wednesday, the Stimson Center hosted a Chairman’s Forum with Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) where he discussed pragmatic approaches to national security. The event was moderated by Lincoln P. Bloomfield, Jr, chairman of the Stimson Center’s Board of Directors.
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On Tuesday, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) hosted an event in which Michael Corbin, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State in the Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs for Iraq issues discussed the strategic challenges facing Iraq as the State Department prepares to take the lead on U.S. operations in 2012.Anthony H. Cordesman, Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy at CSIS moderated the event and made opening remarks.
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Senators John Kerry (D-MA), Joe Lieberman (I-CT) and John McCain (R-AZ) announced in a press conference on Friday that they were seeking to draft legislation to create special “enterprise funds” to help Egypt and Tunisia’s economies recover from revolutionary turmoil and showcase Washington’s goodwill. They stated that they would be modeling their legislation after the U.S. aid to former communist countries in Eastern Europe following the fall of the Berlin Wall. The proposed Egyptian-American Enterprise Fund ($50 to $60 million) and the Tunisian-American Enterprise ($10 million to $20 million) would seek to funnel investment to existing start up businesses in both countries. Senator Kerry stated: “We do this with the belief — shared by the administration — the belief that the United States has an historic opportunity to help these two countries, to transform the Arab awakening that has swept across their lands and transform it into a lasting rebirth that brings prosperity and democracy.”
The House Subcommittee on the Middle East and South Asia held an open hearing on U.S. policy in response to the political unrest across the Middle East as well as to discuss the economic issues facing the region, the committee – chaired by Congressman Steve Chabot (R-OH) and with ranking member Congressman Gary L. Ackerman(D-NY) in attendance – requested the testimony of two individuals: Jeffrey D. Feltman Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern and Mr. George A. Laudato Administrator’s Special Assistant for the Middle East atthe U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID).
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From March 15th-17th, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will travel to Egypt and Tunisia to meet with government officials and elements of civil society to discuss recent events and a full range of regional and bilateral issues.
On Wednesday, during a conference call, Samantha Power, the National Security Council’s senior director for multilateral affairs, stated that the Obama Administration is working to stop the flow of mercenaries fighting for Gadhafi entering the country from countries like Chad and Niger. She stated the administration was also keeping note on the migrant workers exiting the country and was reaching out to opposition groups in Libya in the hopes of setting up reliable communications to better understand the situation on the ground. State Department Spokesman P.J. Crowley also stated that U.S. Ambassador to Libya Gene Cretz met with Libyan opposition leaders in Rome and Cairo this week. In a call with Prime Minister David Cameron on Tuesday, President Barack Obama discussed options to end violence in Libya and agreed the common objectives are the departure of Gadhafi from power as soon as possible and “a transition that meets the Libyan peoples’ aspirations for freedom, dignity and a representative government.” Senior U.S. defense officials have warned senators that the no-fly zone would be a full-combat operation, requiring extensive commitments of manpower and resources. Senators John McCain (R-AZ) and Joseph Liebermancriticized the State Department’s claim that arming the Libyan opposition would be “illegal” under U.N. Security Council Resolution 1970. The Organization of the Islamic Conference also stated on Thursday that they would support a no-fly zone.
On Friday, March 11, the Libyan Ambassador to the United States, Ali Sulaiman Aujali, will join the Libyan Ambassador to the United Nations, Abdurrahman Mohamed Shalgham, at a press conference to call on the Obama administration and Congress to recognize the newly-formed National Transitional Council as the sole legitimate government of Libya. The event will take place at 2:30 pm at the National Press Club, National Press Building, First Amendment Room, 529 14th Street, N.W., Washington, D.C..
Mohammed ElBaradeiannounced that he will seek to run for president of Egypt once presidential nominations are allowed. ElBaradei also denounced the proposed constitutional amendments under the military council calling them “superficial”. He urged the military council to scrap the changes and to put off the proposed March 19th referendum. Without reforms in constitutional amendments controlling political parties, ElBaradei believes that remnants of the previous ruling party along with the Muslim Brotherhood will take control of a new parliament. He also warned that the lack of security within Egypt will prevent the ability for elections to be free and fair. In closing ElBaradei argued: “After all this, how can the parliament be representative, I can’t rule Egypt for one day under this constitution.”
On Tuesday, March 8, Ayatollah Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, a former president a powerful politician in Iran lost his position as head of Assembly of Experts, the body of clerics that theoretically supervises the Supreme Leader of Iran and chooses his successor. Barbara Slavin, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, believes that this move signals the “intent is to strip other Iranian institutions of any authority, further demoralize Iran’s opposition Green Movement, and prove that the Arab uprisings of the past two months will stop at the border with Iran.” Ayatollah Mohammad Reza Mahdavi Kani, an elderly conservative who is bound to a wheelchair, was chosen to replace Rafsanjani in a move to continue to consolidate Grand Ayatollah Khameini’s power. With rumors of Khameini’s cancer, Slavin believes there is the potential for great unrest in choosing a new leader of Iran as well as disputes over elections for president in 2014. Slavin argues that this move will continue to narrow Khameini’s support base and will lead to greater opposition in the streets and a potential boycott of future elections.
