Revisiting the Future: Geopolitical Effects of the Financial Crisis
Mathew J. Burrows and Jennifer Harris (initially published April 2009).

Drafters of the National Intelligence Council’s 2025 report forecast potential effects of the ongoing financial crisis on the economy, the role of the state, and the shape of world order. Will reduced U.S. political and market clout be one of the casualties? More on Multipolarity/Multilateralism and U.S. Hegemony>

American and Chinese Power after the Financial Crisis
Joseph S. Nye, Jr. (initially published October 2010).

The United States has been widely blamed for the recent financial crisis, while China continues to grow and benefits from projections about the future. But be wary of the wrong long-term projections from the recent crisis that could lead to costly policy miscalculations. More on Asia>

Engaging Autocratic Allies to Promote Democracy
David Adesnik and Michael McFaul (initially published Spring 2006).

Diplomacy, particularly with dictatorships friendly toward the United States, is often overlooked as a means to promote democratic regime change. Yet, a closer look at three forgotten cases from the late 1980s yields several lessons for today’s efforts to engage but reform autocratic allies. More on U.S. Politics and Foreign Policy>

Coping with a Conflicted China
David Shambaugh (initially published Winter 2011).

China’s increasingly tough and truculent posture is, in part, the product of an ongoing intensive internal debate. China remains a deeply conflicted rising power, and understanding its series of competing international identities is crucial to anticipating Beijing’s behavior on the world stage. More on China and Taiwan>

The Militarization of Post-Khomeini Iran: Praetorianism 2.0
Elliot Hen-Tov and Nathan Gonzalez (initially published Winter 2011).

The June 12 election fiasco was not a struggle for power, but a de facto coup by the emerging militant class against the clerical oligarchy, creating what might be called a modern “praetorian” state. Ironically, such an Iran could actually be stable, and easier to deal with. More on Iran>

What Do They Really Want?: Obama’s North Korea Conundrum
Victor D. Cha (initially published October 2009).

Kim Jong-il may want nuclear weapons, but is that all? The former deputy of the U.S. delegation to the Six-Party Talks draws on North Korean positions that, even when contradictory, may explain core goals which lie beneath Pyongyang’s rhetoric and provocative actions. More on the Koreas>

The Other Side of the COIN: Perils of Premature Evacuation from Iraq
Kenneth M. Pollack and Irena L. Sargsyan (initially published April 2010).

The United States is leaving Iraq, but how it leaves is tremendously important. The authors draw lessons from recent history around the world to foresee the risks, namely civil war resuming or problems between the Iraqi military and civilian government arising, and how to minimize them. More on Iraq>

Caught in the Muddle: America’s Pakistan Strategy
Paul Staniland (initially published Winter 2011).

The United States needs to strategically retrench in Pakistan: to step back from goals of reforming Pakistani society and forging regional harmony, limit U.S. commitments to bring them into line with limited capabilities, and seek strategic room to maneuver on three key issues. More on South Asia>

Should Israel Become a “Normal” Nation?
Barbara Slavin (initially published October 2010).

External pressures are rising on Israel, creating a diplomatic crisis, to constrain its disproportionate use of military force, acknowledge its nuclear weapons arsenal, and actively seek a comprehensive peace agreement. It is time that Israel became a “normal” nation. More on Israeli Palestinian Relations>

The Security Implications of Climate Change
John Podesta and Peter Ogden (initially published Winter 2007-08).

Within the next 30 years, climate change is expected to cause destabilizing migration, massive food and water shortages, devastating natural disaster, and deadly disease outbreaks that will present serious security challenges not only to directly affected countries, but to the United States and the entire international community. More on Energy and Environment>