Africa

Baobab

Nigeria's primaries

A comfortable win

Jan 16th 2011, 22:29 by S.A. | ABUJA

SHORTLY before dawn on Friday January 14th, Goodluck Jonathan was pronounced the victor at Nigeria’s ruling party primaries. As the candidate of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), which has been in power since the end of army rule in 1999, Mr Jonathan is now likely to win presidential polls due in April. That would place a man often referred to as an “accidental leader” at the helm of Africa’s most populous country and biggest energy producer for the next four years.

In some ways, Mr Jonathan should have been in a position of weakness at the all-night event in Abuja’s Eagle Square, where some 3,500 delegates in colourful traditional robes cast their votes into glass boxes.

First, Mr Jonathan is relatively inexperienced. He came to power unexpectedly last May following the death of then president Umaru Yar’Adua. He had previously served as Mr Yar’Adua’s rather quiet vice-president. Atiku Abubakar, Mr Jonathan’s main rival for the PDP ticket, was a founding member of the party and an adroit dealmaker with two decades in national politics. “I am more trustworthy, experienced and prepared for the task,” Mr Abubakar said in his final speech to the delegates at dusk on Thursday, before voting began.

Second, Mr Jonathan’s candidacy breaks the PDP’s “zoning” pact, an informal agreement whereby the presidency rotates between Nigeria’s mostly Muslim north and largely Christian south every two terms. Mr Jonathan is Nigeria’s first leader to hail from the oil-rich and restive southern delta. Mr Abubakar hails from the north-eastern state of Adamawa.

Yet Mr Jonathan won in 31 of Nigeria's 36 states and Abuja itself, counted as its own area though not a separate state. He even won in most of the northern states, including Adamawa. The president’s backers say delegates are clearly fed up of zoning and want to select candidates on merit. But others say the result simply proves the “power of incumbency”—a phrase muttered in many of Abuja’s plushest hotel bars and suites last week.

Nigerian primaries and elections have historically favoured the sitting president, who can steer a patronage network funded by vast oil and gas revenues. The incumbent can also bestow his blessing on those seeking political appointments. Mr Jonathan’s smartest move, some say, was to back PDP state governors seeking a second term in April.

Last Wednesday, rival camps were darting around Abuja to secure last-minute support. Whatever happened during the discussions and deals, they were certainly exhausting affairs. Although the primaries were slated to start at 10am on Thursday, Eagle Square's concrete parade ground was deserted until late afternoon, as delegates caught up on much-needed sleep. The president himself had only finished the
night’s meetings at 9 o'clock that morning.

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Iprinye wrote:
Jan 17th 2011 6:19 GMT

Shyamantha's articles are wont to be succint and yet comprehensive enough to supply discerning readers all they need to know.

As to Dr. Jonathan's winning the primaries, only a stranger to the realities of Nigeria in the preceding thirteen months could have expected any other result. He is also favourite to win the General Elections in April this year.

Shalom

Anengiyefa wrote:
Jan 18th 2011 5:46 GMT

I'm quite sure that the author stated in the first paragraph that Mr Jonathan is likely to wn the April 2011 election.

What strikes me most pointedly about all of this is the symbolism of the colourful traditional robes of the delegates casting votes.. In Nigeria its all about showing off; all fancy cars, expensive clothes, "colourful robes" and little substance.

It is inexcusable that a significant proportion of the population of a country that is Africa's "biggest energy producer", should in 2011 still be subjected to unreliable electricity supply; a country whose citizens still die of malaria, a disease that is one hundred per cent curable; quality of life of its citizens is in steady decline.. the list of failings is long.

The bottom line is that the presidential system of government is much too expensive for Nigeria and especially so in a society where accountability is unknown. The country's leaders seem not to know where the responsibility of government lies. Fancy colourful robes do not amount to successful government.

Nefretiiti wrote:
Jan 20th 2011 1:12 GMT

I am from the south, a minority, and had always dreamed that a minority would rule Nigeria. Now that dream is becoming a nightmare. I can see clearly that the tribe, religion or creed does not determine a good leader. NOt being a member of the PDP does. On the one hand I am thrilled that Atiku did not win but on the other I wonder why Jonathan wants to be president. He knows most assuredly that he cannot do the job and he is not even going to be able to wing it like Obasanjo. His win is just a reflection of the mediocrity of PDP's politics. They are the new military dictatorship that have to be overthrown.

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On this blog our correspondents delve into the politics, economics and culture of the continent of Africa, from Cairo to the Cape. The blog takes its name from the baobab, a massive tree that grows throughout much of Africa. It stores water, provides food and is often called the tree of life.

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