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Labour mobility

Move the people to the growth, not the growth to the people

Feb 28th 2011, 16:29 by R.A. | WASHINGTON

ON FRIDAY, I attended an event at the Brookings Institution called "State Roads to Economic Recovery". The gist of the programme was pretty clear. Washington is gridlocked. State governments are slashing away at core spending. What can be done to draw some growth-supporting policies out of this mess? If useful actions are likely to emerge from governments, the assumption seemed to be, it's at the state level where the policy experiments will take place, and where good ideas will be found. Though the participants were all fairly clear on what those ideas should include: spare crucial investments in things like education and infrastructure, get more efficient in operation and use of revenue, get more efficient in the raising of revenue, and so on.

I suppose it ended up being a mildly encouraging event. The great hope is that at least some of the state governments out there will use the crisis as an opportunity to adopt politically difficult policies that are nonetheless very good ideas—things like congestion tolling on crowded roads, or the use of public-private partnerships to build infrastructure. And perhaps some states will rise to the occasion.

But the thing that kept bugging me throughout the day was the problem in focusing on a state-level approach to recovery. Every state wants to retain residents, retain businesses, invest in key assets, and so on. But one of America's great strengths has historically been its fluid national labour market. When deep recessions hit, labour can move relatively easily from places where conditions are slow to improve to places where recovery is occuring faster. This mobility speeds national adjustments and gets the economy back up to speed faster than would otherwise be the case.

There was a sort of sideways acknowledgment of this truth whenever the subject of Texas came up. Aside from the advantages of having an oil industry amid high oil prices, what can we learn from Texas' success? Well, that it's an economic boon to absorb several hundred thousand new people when your economy is lagging. The extra demand helps make up for the reduced spending by existing residents, preventing the economy from declining as steeply (thereby attracting still more new residents).

But not every state can benefit from adding new people (nor should they). One panel featured two officials from the state of Michigan, which has suffered from a long period of decline and which continues to seek ways to right the ship. It would be possible, even easy, to resurrect Michigan. What would it take? Start with a special visa programme, in which skilled immigrants from other countries are offered easier visa terms and an expedited road to citizenship if they accept a visa that requires them to work in the Detroit area for five years. Follow that up by endowing a massive, DARPA-style energy research laboratory in the Detroit area. Set up special venture capital funds that offer excellent loan terms to start-ups connected with the lab or area universities, if they're willing to locate their new business in Michigan. Set up a special economic zone in southeastern Michigan that features an "invisible" border with Canada. Build high-speed rail lines from Detroit to Chicago and Toronto. Do all that, and I guarantee you that Detroit will be growing like mad in ten years. Honestly, even the visa programme alone might generate a turnaround.

The question is: to what end are we resurrecting Michigan? If the goal is to help the residents of Michigan, it would be much cheaper and easier to do so by investing in those individuals, in order to help them move to more successful local economies. Indeed, without investments in the people of Michigan, it's not clear how much a turnaround in the state's fortunes will benefit existing residents. Many have stayed in the state because they love the place, no doubt, but many others have not left because they're unprepared to find success in growth industries elsewhere. Moving the growth industries to their backyard won't change that fact.

If you're the governor of a declining state, you can't help but do everything you can to return your state to growth. But it's important to remember that the best thing for the American economy as a whole will often be for people to leave lagging areas.

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1-20 of 20
Feb 28th 2011 4:46 GMT

The problem with this approach lies in the "social costs", removing peoples "roots" can lead to social alienation and increased crime.
So is it the best thing for the American economy as a whole to have permanent pockets of despair (which current morals say require support) offset by materially wealthier pockets of social disruption?

Wouldn't it be better to apply both approaches?
This would at least put the wealthy in proximity to the destitute so they can see the consequences.

hedgefundguy wrote:
Feb 28th 2011 4:54 GMT

Us folks in the Great Lake states will gladly sell the
dry states water at $5/gallon.

I see Personal Income came out today.

71% of the growth of personal income - 94.9 Billion of 133.2 - was due to the reduction of the Social Security taxes.

I hope everyone saved that money - savings rose by only 56.2 Billion - so I don't have to hear the whiners in the future.

Remember, when that cut expires, it's a tax hike.

Gotta love that ACT/SAT score ranking of Texas.
http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2011/02/unions

I guess everything is bigger and stupider in Texas.

Regards

W.C. Varones wrote:
Feb 28th 2011 5:18 GMT

Don't forget that the Fed-created housing crash has also hurt labor mobility by trapping people in underwater houses.

Hard to move to Detroit for a job when you can't sell your California house.

jomiku wrote:
Feb 28th 2011 5:31 GMT

Michigan's governor has proposed tax changes designed to do exactly what RA suggests: drive people out. The taxes on a single parent with 2 children making $22k a year go up by $689, which is more than the taxes go up on a family with 2 kids earning over $250k a year ($663 increase). Taxes on retirees go up even more, with a couple making $48k a year (from social security and pension, 401(k)) would have a tax increase of $2560 a year. A pensioner making $22k gets a tax increase of $739.

Since it will be difficult for these poorer people to feed & clothe themselves or their children, let alone pay for utilities, the new taxes seem designed to cause so much pain that people get out of Michigan.

BTW, this an example of the "tax the poor" movement which has gripped the GOP. Michigan will eliminate the earned income tax credit - originally designed by the GOP to encourage the poor to work. The numbers are somewhat frightening: imagine trying to make do with $200 less per month on a fixed income or trying to pay for heat when your tiny income is reduced by $50 a month.

So we have an interesting public policy experiment: drive out the poor and the elderly while trying to encourage the richest to remain. Makes me ashamed to come from Michigan.

For those who don't bother to check statistics, these came from the State of Michigan and are the official examples provided by the Treasury to the governor's office.

Feb 28th 2011 5:35 GMT

"Do all that, and I guarantee you that Detroit will be growing like mad in ten years."

RA needs to study what states have been doing for decades. Most of what he recommends most states have been practicing for decades and with little benefit. The fact is that bureaucrats understand very little about economic development and don't want to learn. Those who do understand go into business.

Also, study what urban planning experts have to say. Indianapolis is an example of what to do for a declining city. Decades ago it faced similar problems to those of Detroit. It turned things around by selling off assets, reducing taxes and improving streets and utility services.

msgkings wrote:
Feb 28th 2011 7:08 GMT

@hedgefundguy

Thought I'd cheer you up by mentioning that our current financial obligations (mortgages, rent, car payments, credit cards, etc) are the smallest share of disposable income since 1995.

So those spendthrifts are getting better, perhaps.

jomiku wrote:
Feb 28th 2011 7:23 GMT

To clarify, since I actually care about accuracy, the examples in my comment above are from the Michigan Treasury but the effect of current rates was calculated by an accounting firm at the behest of The Detroit News. That is, the state provided the new material but didn't show how the examples raised or lowered taxes from current law. I think they were trying to hide the effects, but whatever.

BTW, Michigan is not Detroit and Detroit is not Michigan. And many of things other cities have done have also been done in Detroit, notably more government agency control over the entire metro area - which is now being forced through regarding Detroit's water. Some problems don't respond. Detroit had nearly 2 million people when the auto industry was minting cash. Given that the Big 3 couldn't rationally have expected to hold on to 90+% of the US market, quality and production issues aside, one can't reasonably expect that Detroit would have remained as large, as vibrant when its rise was so dependent on one cluster of production. That cluster generated tremendous wealth but it was a bubble of sorts as well because it couldn't sustain at that rate.

A Squared B wrote:
Mar 1st 2011 12:30 GMT

It is insane to talk about importing people from abroad to help revitalize economically depressed areas in the U.S. For decades it has been the de facto policy of the U.S. to export jobs and to import people. As in the case of all Ponzi Schemes, this bubble burst and we now have, predictably, massive national unemployment.

The United States today is unsustainable; we import something like two thirds of the petroleum we consume and something like 20 percent of the food we eat. We have exported our heavy industries and in so doing have lost the skill communities that were essential to the continuation of heavy manufacturing. We now talk about expanding nuclear energy and renewing our national electrical grid. It's not clear that the remaining American industrial community could do the manufacturing that is necessary for these renewals. It seems that we would have to go on bended knee to foreign manufacturers to try to purchase the heavy industrial equipment needed for our national survival which tragically, is dependent on people who believe in perpetual sustainable growth. "Sustainable growth" is an oxymoron. The sooner we recognize this fundamental law of nature, the sooner we can start rebuilding a system that has a chance of lasting into the long-term future.

We need to stop and then reverse U.S. population growth to get our population and rates of resource consumption down to sustainable levels.

Tell me if exporting jobs and importing people makes any sense at all.

mtangent wrote:
Mar 1st 2011 1:25 GMT

corporateanarchist:
How much are roots worth when your unemployed?
Speaking from experience, I can say that when you move to an area because of its high growth, you will be surrounded by other people newly moved to the area, all of whom will be open to creating new networks of friends etc.
This is especially true for families with young children. The school experience allows you to meet more people.

Jomiku:
These less affluent families are probably being given good advice, albeit painfully. The sooner they move, the better for them.

CAJason80 wrote:
Mar 1st 2011 2:48 GMT

"Aside from the advantages of having an oil industry amid high oil prices, what can we learn from Texas' success?"

Uh, how about that it's not really a 'success', so much as gimmicky accounting?

"A budget shortfall as high as $27 billion is projected as lawmakers work through the 2011 legislative session, according to estimates from economists and the Texas comptroller's office."

I can't believe the number of people who continue to talk about the "Texas success story." It's not a success story. They're just as screwed as everyone else. They just happened to be lucky that they didn't have to do their budgeting until this year because of the biennial nature of their budgeting cycle.

nursebill55 wrote:
Mar 1st 2011 8:26 GMT

Something danish came to mind when reading the above where they improve labour mobility and maintain stable family values by offering a travel tax allowance to those who commute over a certain distance when they lose their local job for a newer one further away.Thereby allowing the family to continue living where they were,kids to remain in the same school and other partner to remain in their own job.All equalling minimal upheavel.Not sure how that would work in the likes of UK or USA,though.

Mar 1st 2011 2:15 GMT

CAJason80, do you see any Detroits in TX? No, TX is not a perfect libertarian state. If it were, it wouldn't have a $27 billion shortfall. But what scares the hell out of socialists is that Texas offers low tax rates which are attracting businesses from all over the country.

heated wrote:
Mar 1st 2011 3:10 GMT

Growth in state population and employment is a function of how well a state is managed. Private business the backbone of any economic growth will only move to an area if it has the resources it needs. Every industry has different needs be it resource, capital, industrial or service based. Every state has its specialty or natural advantage in particular resources. Whether a state desires to export these resources to forgo the local opportunity cost is their business. The problem is piting state against state with these financial grants/subsidies. THIS IS WRONG !!!!

Congestion is anti-productive. Large cities need not grow furthur by encouraging development in less developed areas.
Bring the people to the industrial areas only if one has to, since congestion will occur. Bringing industry closer to the resource they use the most, and is most costly to move is the best option to increase profits. Energy is becomming more expensive.

heated

Carreverte wrote:
Mar 1st 2011 10:07 GMT

If you tried to explain how to lower the 10% US unemployment rate you lost me

If you don´t know that little populated rural states have a much higher employment rate, to begin with, you are lost yourself

If you realize that, then you point out to people to move to those states and they take your advice ... Well, everybody is in trouble

If you try to think a bit (it is painful and can make you seat) you may find out that we are pretty much back to 1929 when the banks went crazy and unregulated.

If you could tell us the truth: i. e. that the taxpayer will foot the bill and there is a solid chance that it all will begin again with 25%+ unemployment, we might be headed to some serious thinking

If John M. Keynes raised from the grave he would quickly go back to it with a massive heart attack listening to the US Republican Party and reading the Economist

Pacer wrote:
Mar 2nd 2011 12:39 GMT

Kind of ironic that Detroit--a city that initially rose to prominence and wealth due to its advantageous location astride major freshwater shipping lanes--bubbled and collapsed due to its embrace of the overland combustion vehicle industry. Oh yeah, and maybe also because lots of its backbone communities fled to avoid inclusionary housing policies that offended their preference for free association. Then again, here in Miami we blame not the newcomers who upended our community, but rather those natives who ran in fear from diversity and thus aided a wholesale shift to the other extreme.

Genghis Cunn wrote:
Mar 2nd 2011 1:41 GMT

Excellent article. Since the dawn of pre-history, humans have moved from less advantageous to more advantageous locations. They continue to do so, in spite of barriers such as national borders, and probably always will. The best government response to poor economic conditions is to adopt policies which encourage entrepreneurial activity, such as light-handed regulation and planning and IR laws; to make it easier for people to spot and exploit profitable opportunities. Dropping all interventionist policies and attendant public servants and directing the savings to lower business taxes might help.

Kevin Sutton wrote:
Mar 2nd 2011 2:26 GMT

Of course getting people to leave lagging areas is not unlike everyone competing with taxes for the same businesses. You're all working at cross purposes as everyone tries to ship their poor and sick away. That and it would require a government to be actively trying to get its people to leave its jurisdiction through punitive measures. Now I know you suggested investment in people, but that's just pointless if you're expecting those people to leave. Punitive measures against undesirables make more financial sense.

As for Texas...if a state with as enormous social deficiencies and financial problems as it has is competing for businesses as strongly as it is, (As has been the case for a long while) then that suggests that states competing with other states for businesses is a win for none of them. (Which wouldn't be a huge surprise)

Mar 2nd 2011 3:01 GMT

Carreverte: "If John M. Keynes raised from the grave he would quickly go back to it with a massive heart attack listening to the US Republican Party and reading the Economist"

The early Keynes, maybe, but not the later Keynes. Before he died Keynes said he was not a Keynesian. In other words, he didn't like the direction his "followers" had taken his theories, and he probably realized how wrong he had been, too. Hayek, who was a good friend, asked him about the inflationary policies of some of his followers and Keynes said he would straighten them out. But before he could, he died.

Mar 2nd 2011 3:03 GMT

"Start with a special visa programme, in which skilled immigrants from other countries are offered easier visa terms and an expedited road to citizenship if they accept a visa that requires them to work in the Detroit area for five years."

Yeah that's easy! Oh wait, there aren't any jobs in Detroit. Dang it! How do we create jobs in Detroit so that people will immigrate?

Kevin Sutton wrote:
Mar 3rd 2011 12:27 GMT

Keynes died in 1946. By that time he would have seen the nations of the world pull themselves out of the great depression and begin rebuilding after WW2. Somehow I doubt he would have looked at his policies achieving the success he hoped for and then decide that he was wrong or that they had gone too far. (Even if he did...so what? Such economic policies worked.)

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