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  • Economic forecasting

    Greater expectations

    Dec 10th 2010, 13:10 by The Economist online

    Cheerier growth forecast for 2011

    ANALYSTS are a bit more optimistic about the outlook for growth in 2011, according to our December poll of forecasters. In all of the countries polled growth forecast for 2011 are either flat or slightly higher compared with our poll in November. Notably, Sweden’s GDP is expected to grow by 3.1% and America 2.6%, up from last month’s poll's 2.8% and 2.3% respectively. The average forecast for GDP growth this year in Canada, Australia, Italy, the Netherlands and Switzerland however, are lower than last month’s. Canada and Italy are also now forecast to have slightly deeper current-account deficits. Our forecast poll also includes consumer prices. For more economic indicators see here.

  • Bribery

    Something for your troubles

    Dec 9th 2010, 13:03 by The Economist online

    In which countries do members of the public frequently pay bribes?

    ONE in four people paid a bribe during the past year, according to the latest Global Corruption Barometer, which is published annually by Transparency International, an anti-corruption campaign group. The report focuses on the bribes paid by ordinary members of the public to at least one of nine different service providers, including customs, education, medical services and the judiciary, rather than the bribes paid to politicians or public officials that are the mainstay of most corruption scandals. The police were the most frequently bribed: 29% of those who came in contact with them paid something. People who run registries or dispense permits were the second-most bribed. Tax authorities received backhanders from 4% of their customers. Generally those who earn less were more likely to have to pay bribes. Among the countries surveyed, this kind of everyday corruption was most prevalent in Liberia. Britain was the cleanest.


  • Books

    Book value

    Dec 8th 2010, 15:05 by The Economist online

    The most expensive books

    ON TUESDAY December 7th a complete volume of John James Audubon's "The Birds of America" fetched a record price at auction. The book, which stands more than three feet by two feet (91cm x 61cm) and includes 435 hand-coloured illustrations of birds from North America in life-size, reached $10.3m. The previous record for a book was another copy of Audubon's masterpiece, sold in 2000, which reached $10.2m in today's prices. Indeed, a list of the ten most-expensive books would include five copies of "The Birds of America". Our chart, therefore, strips out any repeat mentions of individual titles. Many of the most expensive books are works of non-fiction, such as Redouté's illustrations of flowers, Gutenberg's Bible and the Declaration of Independence.

    Correction: We erroneously attributed George Washington as the author of the "The Federalist". The book was written by Alexander Hamilton, John Jay and James Madison. It was George Washington's copy. Sorry. This was corrected on December 10th 2010.

  • Education

    An international report card

    Dec 7th 2010, 14:16 by The Economist online

    Shanghai's school students out-perform all others

    SINCE 2000 the OECD has tested school pupils in mainly rich countries every three years on reading, mathematics and science. Its latest report, published on December 7th, gives the results for students in 65 countries or regions, many of which are included for the first time. And it is a newcomer to the Programme of International Student Assessment (PISA) that has taken top spot in each discipline. High-school children in Shanghai outscored those elsewhere by a substantial margin in reading, the report's focus. Shanghai, Finland, South Korea and Hong Kong also have some of the smallest variations among student scores. Canada and Japan are the best-performing of the G7 nations, and Poland has made significant strides. Britain has slipped down the rankings, despite spending heavily on education in the last decade.

  • Chinese missile ranges

    China's missiles

    Dec 6th 2010, 13:46 by The Economist online

    An interactive graphic showing the range of a selection of China's missiles

    MISSILES have been a pillar of China’s military modernisation. After awesome demonstrations of American firepower, in Operation Desert Storm in the first Gulf war, and then in 1996, when the United States sailed two carrier strike groups close to Taiwan to deter Chinese aggression, China felt that it could no longer depend on sheer manpower for its defence. So it has invested heavily in the strength and technical sophistication of its missiles. The Pentagon has described China’s programme as “the most active land-based ballistic- and cruise-missile programme in the world”. Missiles are good value. Compared with a fully equipped aircraft-carrier, which might cost $15 billion-20 billion, a missile costs about $1m. And missiles can be potent. The chart shows how, in terms of numbers, China has concentrated on short- and medium-range missiles. This puts Taiwan within easy range of a devastating cruise- and ballistic-missile attack. Military analysts fear that the Second Artillery could retarget the missiles, putting Japan at risk, as well as America’s Asian bases. China also has a few intercontinental ballistic missiles, able to carry a nuclear payload. And American strategists are closely watching an experimental anti-ship ballistic missile with a manoeuvrable warhead, which could make it hard for American fleets to approach the Chinese shore. China recently hinted that it may be ready to cut the number of missiles targeting Taiwan. Whether this comes to anything will depend upon relations with the island—and they can be highly unpredictable.

  • Climate change

    The hottest years on record

    Dec 3rd 2010, 15:35 by The Economist online

    This year is likely to be the warmest ever recorded

    MORE fuel was added to the climate-change talks in Cancún this week with the announcement that 2010 is very likely to be the warmest year yet. On December 2nd Britain's Met Office reported that from January to October the world was 0.55°C warmer than the average between 1961 and 1990, the benchmark. At that rate, it forecasts that 2010 will probably end up being the hottest year since records began in 1850, surpassing the previous high recorded in 1998. Data gathered by the two other main research institutes that monitor global temperatures indicate a similar outcome. A ranking of the hottest years shows minor variation in the data gathered by each institute (the other two reckon 2005 was hotter than 1998, for instance). Each of the last ten years features in the top 11 warmest years recorded in all datasets.

  • US online retail spending

    Spend, spend, spend

    Dec 2nd 2010, 14:45 by The Economist online

    Retail spending in America bounces back

    AMERICA'S shoppers spent over $1 billion online on Monday November 29th, the biggest one-day total ever recorded, according to comScore, an internet-research firm. Spending over the holiday season is growing again after two miserable years for consumers and retailers alike. Monday's sales alone were 16% higher than last year's "Cyber Monday" total of $887m. And in traditional bricks-and-mortar stores, the story is similar. The National Retail Federation estimated that 212m people hit the shops over the Thanksgiving holiday weekend, 9% more than in 2009, while the average amount spent by each rose from $343 to $365.

  • Data visualisation

    The Joy of Stats

    Dec 1st 2010, 17:46 by H.J.

    I’VE just been sent a link to a YouTube preview (embedded below) of The Joy of Stats, a television programme to be broadcast on December 7th on BBC 4. Presented by Hans Rosling, a Swedish professor of public health, it looks like a romp—implausible only if you’ve never seen the great man in action, either on the internet or, if you’re really lucky, live. I’m really lucky. I’ve seen him in action three times, the first at a one-day conference in Cambridge about five years ago.

    Almost everything about the event has now vanished from my memory—when and where exactly it was, who had arranged it, the topic—almost everything, that is, except his talk. I am sure that the audience were mostly professionals in the field of medical statistics, and yet with the help of nothing more than animated bubble charts, the even more animated Swede bouncing around in front of them had the audience eating out of the palms of his hands.

    He gave various demonstrations of Gapminder, the software he and others had developed to show multiply varying statistics—life expectancy and wealth by country, say—simultaneously and as animations, so that instead of having to waste an axis in order to show time, the data presentation could run like a high-speed replay.

    I remember he played one video showing rates of maternal mortality during childbirth in Sweden—and as the numbers fell, he shouted, triumphantly: “And here the doctors started washing their hands!” The audience cheered. And I remember another that showed changes in countries’ average wealth and life expectancy, with bubbles sized according to population, and coloured by continent. For some decades after the second world war it was a story of general, though uneven, progress—and then came the AIDS epidemic in Africa. Until you’ve seen Hans Rosling in action you can have no idea just how moving a bunch of blue bubbles moving down a screen can be.

    (Look out for a profile of Dr Rosling in next weeks Technology Quarterly.)

  • House prices

    Double dip

    Dec 1st 2010, 13:30 by The Economist online

    America's house prices are falling again

    THERE was further gloomy news for America's homeowners as national house prices dipped in the three months to September. The S&P/Case-Shiller index, released on November 30th, fell by 1.5% from the same period in 2009 and by 2% from the previous quarter. The end of the government's tax incentives and ongoing foreclosures are contributing factors. The index is now back at 2003 levels. Prices in the ten big cities are 2.6% higher on a quarterly basis than a year ago, but the same downwards trend is evident there too. Indeed the broader 20-city gauge, which began in 2000 and is not shown here, rose by only 1.8% on a year earlier.

     Compare countries’ housing data over time with
    our interactive house-price indicators

     

  • Global cities

    Christmas for Turkey

    Nov 30th 2010, 16:54 by The Economist online

    How the world's cities have fared since the financial crisis hit in 2007

    CITIES are the great engines of growth in the world economy. Istanbul, with income growth of 5.5% and employment growth of 7.3% over the past year, is currently the world's best-performing city, according to a new report by the Brookings Institution and the London School of Economics. The report ranks 150 cities from across the globe according to growth in gross value added per person (a proxy for income) and employment. The 150 metropolitan areas represented just 12% of the world's population but accounted for 46% of the world's GDP in 2007. Some cities have plunged in the rankings since the "Great Recession". Dubai and Dublin, the second and sixth best-performing cities respectively between 1993 and 2007, now rank as the most stagnant.

  • Climate change

    Heat map

    Nov 29th 2010, 14:31 by The Economist online

    The world is warming

    ON NOVEMBER 29th representatives of countries from around the world gathered in Cancún, Mexico, for the first high-level climate talks since those in Copenhagen last December. Incremental progress is possible, but continued deadlock is likelier. What is out of reach, as it was at Copenhagen, is agreement on a plausible programme for keeping climate change in check. The world warmed by about 0.7°C in the 20th century and by the end of the 21st century temperatures will be 3°C warmer than at the beginning of the industrial revolution. Increases in average temperature will be less noticeable than those in extremes. According to a 2009 comparison of over 20 climate models by David Battisti and Rosamond Naylor, by 2050 there is a 10-50% likelihood that the average summer in much of the world will be hotter than any summer recorded until now. By 2090 the likelihood of this happening rises to 90% in many places. For more on climate change, see article.

  • Daily chart

    Money and happiness

    Nov 25th 2010, 14:45 by The Economist online

    Measured a different way, the correlation between money and happiness is surprisingly strong

    DISMAL scientists who look at happiness often contend that, beyond a GDP per capita of just $15,000 (measured at purchasing-power parity), money does not buy happiness. Up to that point the correlation between the two is strong, but thereafter it falls away. If this is true then some heretical conclusions follow: rich America is no happier than poorer Brazil, so what is the point in people who live in rich countries working harder to get ever richer? Politicians should concentrate on maximising the mental health of their voters, rather than the size of their pay cheques. But plot the data another way, on a logarithmic scale where each increment represents a 100% increase in income per head, and the relationship between wealth and happiness looks more robust. 

  • Credit-default-swaps spreads

    Not Greek yet

    Nov 24th 2010, 15:58 by The Economist online

    How the markets rate the solvency of American states compared with European countries

    Credit default swaps are derivatives that investors use to protect against, or bet on, an entity being unable to repay its debts. The higher the spread, the less faith the market has that default can be avoided. As fears over the fiscal health of peripheral euro-zone countries have resurfaced, their spreads have climbed dramatically. Those of larger members have also widened, but by less. America's federal and state governments, by contrast, are by and large seen as much safer than they were at the start of 2009, though spreads has crept up this year amid growing worries about chronic pension and health-care shortfalls. The state with the biggest budget problems, California, is seen as slightly less likely to default than Spain but slightly more so than Italy.

  • The fight against AIDS

    The fight against AIDS

    Nov 23rd 2010, 14:26 by The Economist online

    One of the world's worst plagues is giving ground

    ON NOVEMBER 23rd UNAIDS, the UN body charged with combatting the AIDS epidemic, released its latest report. This carries good news. Though some 33m people are infected, the rate of new infections is falling—down from 3.1m a year a decade ago to 2.6m in 2009. Moreover, as the map shows, the figure is falling fastest in many of the most heavily infected countries. The reason is a combination of behavioural change (people are losing their virginity later, are being less promiscuous and are using condoms more), a big reduction in mother-to-child transmission at birth and through breast-feeding, and the roll-out of drug treatment for those already infected. Besides prolonging life, antiretroviral drugs make those taking them less likely to pass the virus on. More than 5m people in poor and middle-income countries are now on these drugs, though another 10m could benefit. (The remainder of those infected are not yet ill enough for the drugs to do do them good.) The problem, as always, is money. UNAIDS reckons the fight needs about $25 billion a year to be fully effective. At the moment, the sum spent is around $17 billion. Not a bad fraction of what is needed, but one that it will be difficult to sustain in the face of the world’s current economic difficulties.

  • US human development by state

    Interacting with America

    Nov 22nd 2010, 14:15 by The Economist | London

    Human development, crime and other indicators for the United States

    OUR interactive map highlights selected data from the American Human Development Project for all 50 states. Readers can examine the overall level of health, wealth and education in different states, as well as comparing Louisiana's homicide rate with that of Maryland, say, or spending per person on Medicaid in Hawaii and in Pennsylvania. Roll the mouse over the map to get going.

     

  • Japan's population

    The old and the older

    Nov 19th 2010, 11:46 by The Economist online

    Japan is ageing faster than any country in history

    FOR about 50 years after the second world war the combination of Japan’s fast-growing labour force and the rising productivity of its famously industrious workers created a growth miracle. Within two generations the number of people of working age increased by 37m and Japan went from ruins to the world’s second-largest economy. In the next 40 years that process will go into reverse. The working-age population will shrink so quickly that by 2050 it will be smaller than it was in 1950, and four out of ten Japanese will be over 65. Unless Japan’s productivity rises faster than its workforce declines, which seems unlikely, its economy will shrink.

  • OECD economic growth

    Slowing down to speed up

    Nov 18th 2010, 14:39 by The Economist online

    Growth in OECD countries will slow before bouncing back

    THE OECD expects average GDP growth among its mostly rich members to slow from 2.8% in 2010 to 2.3% in 2011, before bouncing back to 2.8% in 2012. GDP growth in America and Britain should follow this pattern, with a slowdown in 2011 followed by acceleration the following year. But for Japan and Germany, growth in 2012 is expected to be slower than in 2011. Australia and Poland have more to look forward to, with growth expected to speed up in each of the next two years.

  • The Economist food-price index

    Malthusian mouthfuls

    Nov 17th 2010, 14:01 by The Economist online

    The price of food since 1980

    FOOD prices have risen sharply this year according to The Economist's food-price index. A drought in Russia, prompting an export ban on wheat, and an unexpectedly poor corn harvest in America both took their toll. And the price of agricultural commodities could continue on their upward path. The world should prepare for  “harder times ahead”  according to the UN's Food and Agriculture Organisation unless production of food crops increases significantly next year. China's government is even considering price controls on food (and energy) to tame inflation and head-off popular discontent. Yet as our index shows, in real terms food is still cheaper than it was 30 years ago.

  • Cartography

    Google goofs

    Nov 17th 2010, 11:18 by G.D.

    THE Caribbean end of the border between Costa Rica and Nicaragua follows the course of the San Juan river, which was once considered a possible route for the trans-isthmus canal. The border was originally determined by the Cañas-Jerez Treaty of Limits in 1858.

    The boundary follows the northern branch as the river splits into two, the southern branch is called the Colorado river. According to the treaty, the right bank of the San Juan river is Costa Rican territory but the river itself is Nicaraguan. In 1888 Grover Cleveland, then president of America, arbitrated in the dispute and gave a ruling stating that Costa Rica had the right to use the river for commerce but "has not the right of navigation of the river San Juan with vessels of war". President Cleveland also commissioned a mapping survey of the area, conducted in 1897 by E.P. Alexander.

    In 2009 the International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruled that Costa Rica cannot re-supply its armed police border posts using the river, but also that Nicaragua cannot demand visas from Costa Rican tourists traveling along the river.

    Edén Pastora, an ex-revolutionary and now Nicaragua's director of dredging on the San Juan river, argues that the river has changed course since the 1888 ruling. He cited a mistake by Google Maps (soon to be rectified ) among reasons for making an encampment of troops on the Costa Rican side of the river.

    Nicaragua has yet to produce any maps showing the course of the San Juan river along the route it now claims as the new border. Even if it does, convincing the ICJ will be tricky, as both countries have mapped their mutual border along the same lines for over a hundred years.

  • Human development

    Nation states

    Nov 16th 2010, 16:30 by The Economist online

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    How selected American states compare to various countries

    THE human development index (HDI) is an attempt to give a snapshot of a country's success by combining three important indicators: health, education and wealth. The most recent global HDI ranking from the United Nations' Development Programme places Norway top, with the United States fourth (out of 169 countries). But with over 300m people living in 50 states, America varies greatly, so the American Human Development Project releases a state-based version of the HDI. We have put the two indices together to see where America's states would rank if they were countries. Because the indicators used in the two indices were slightly different, we calculated our index from scratch using comparable data (though we used a proxy for educational attainment). Our index still has Norway as number one but America drops to eighth.

  • Political prisoners under house arrest

    Homebound

    Nov 15th 2010, 17:11 by A.F.

    TWO days after her release from house arrest on November 13th, Aung San Suu Kyi said she hopes for a peaceful revolution in her country. The Burmese activist for democracy and winner of the Nobel peace prize had been detained for 15 of the last 21 years. Our table shows a selection of political prisoners who are either being held in their homes or whose movements are restricted. Hundreds more may be under house arrest around the world, according to the pressure group Human Rights Watch.

  • Daily chart

    Of inhuman bond spreads

    Nov 15th 2010, 13:33 by The Economist online

    Sovereign bond spreads for Portugal, Ireland and Greece point towards trouble

    CAN Portugal, Ireland and Greece get through the latest spikes in their bond prices without some help from Brussels, or from the IMF? Attention has been focused on Ireland since the sharp movement in markets at the end of last week. The Irish government points out that its expenditure is fully funded until the middle of 2011, so it has no need to tap bond markets yet. Its preference is to pass a budget on December 7th and hope that markets then calm down. Ireland at least has some good news to balance against the bad: both foreign direct investment and industrial production are up sharply. Greece and Portugal have no such bright patches to point to. On November 15th Eurostat, the European statistics agency, revised Greece's budget shortfall for last year up to 15.4%.

  • Foreign direct investment

    Cometh the dragon

    Nov 12th 2010, 15:00 by The Economist online

    China is beginning to spend its cash

    CHINA'S share of the world's foreign direct investment (FDI) has risen from 1% in 1991 to just under 6% in 2009. FDI flows tend to go hand in hand with economic clout. Britain was a big exporter of capital in the mid-19th century. America played this role for part of the 20th century: its share of FDI peaked at 50% in 1967 but has since declined to 23%. China's share will no doubt keep growing. But it seems unlikely that it will be as generous an exporter of capital as Britain and America have been, at least in the medium term.

  • Squabbling politicians

    Rudderless

    Nov 11th 2010, 16:00 by The Economist online

    European coalition governments are frequently born late and fragile

    AFTER eight months of delay Iraq's main political parties agreed to settle their differences and finally struck a deal to form a coalition government on November 11th. The political impasse has been frowned upon in the West but, as this chart shows, European governments can take a long time to form, too. According to data from European Representative Democracy, a think-tank, governments in western Europe take 25 days to form on average. Some countries operate far less efficiently, however. The Netherlands currently holds the region's record for the longest time to form a government (208 days). And Belgium is still without a functioning cabinet since its last coalition collapsed five months ago. Moreover, once formed, these much-anticipated governments do not always last long. In 2007-08 Belgium took over six months to produce a government, only to see it collapse three months later. Hopefully Iraq's government will last a little longer than the deadlock that has preceded it.

  • Cartography

    The true true size of Africa

    Nov 10th 2010, 17:52 by G.D.

    LAST month Kai Krause, a computer-graphics guru, caused a stir with a map entitled "The True Size of Africa", which showed the outlines of other countries crammed into the outline of the African continent. His aim was to make "a small contribution in the fight against rampant Immappancy"—in particular, the fact that most people do not realise how much the ubiquitous Mercator projection distorts the relative sizes of countries.

    A sphere cannot be represented on a flat plane without distortion, which means all map projections distort in one way or another. Some projections show areas accurately but distort distances or scales, for example; others preserve the shapes of countries but misrepresent their areas. You can read all the gory details on Wikipedia.

    Gerardus Mercator’s projection, published in 1569, was immediately useful because it depicts a line of constant bearing as a straight line, which is handy for marine navigation. The drawback is that it distorts the shapes and areas of large land masses, and the distortion gets progressively worse as you get closer to the poles. (Africa looks about the same size as Greenland under the Mercator projection, for example, even though it is in fact 14 times bigger.) This was not a big problem from 16th-century sailors, of course, and the Mercator projection remains popular to this day.

    In Mr Krause's map (above) he seems to have used the shapes of the countries from a Mercator projection, but has scaled up the outline of Africa, without changing its shape, to show the appropriate area. An alternative and arguably more rigorous approach would be to repeat the exercise using an "equal area" projection that shows the countries' areas correctly while minimising shape distortion. These two properties are the hardest to balance when showing the whole world on one map. I decided to rework Mr Krause's map using Gall's Stereographic Cylindrical Projection (1855) with two standard parallels at 45°N and 45°S. Distortions are still evident at the poles, but for most countries shape is maintained, and their areas are shown correctly. As you can see (below), the results are distinct from Mr Krause’s map. But however you look at it, his point is a good one: Africa is much bigger than it looks on most maps.

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    On this blog we publish a new chart or map every working day, highlight our interactive-data features and provide links to interesting sources of data around the web.

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