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Tablet computers

Taking the tablets

Mar 2nd 2011, 11:20 by The Economist online

The iPad's dominance of the market for tablet computers may prove short-lived

APPLE is due to launch a new version of its popular iPad on March 2nd. The company sold some 15m iPads in 2010, the year in which the device was launched, and according to one forecast it could sell more than 40m of them in 2011. But other tablet computers, in particular those based on Google's Android operating system, are expected to erode its share of a fast-growing market. In 2010 iPads accounted for about 80% of total tablet sales; by 2015 Apple's market share could fall below 40%.

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luso_star wrote:
Mar 2nd 2011 3:11 GMT

I would never buy an Ipad.

luso_star wrote:
Mar 2nd 2011 3:13 GMT

My brother got an ipad as a xmas bonus from his company. I live with him, so I see that ipad every single day. I have never held it in my hand, and I never will.

Mar 2nd 2011 3:19 GMT

If I add all the bars in this chart, I get close to a billion tablets in about 5 years! Something tells me 1 out of 7 people on earth will not own a tablet computer, when about 3 out of 7 are still trying to get food, shelter, and basic ameneties. This is reminiscent of the irresponsible extrapolations of fiberoptic capacity trends in the late 90's.

Zambino wrote:
Mar 2nd 2011 3:28 GMT

'If you spend too long looking at that screen you eyes will turn square. Now go play outside, its much better for you.' My Gran

Mar 2nd 2011 3:35 GMT

This of course is assuming that apple won't have some game changing idea in the next 5 years, or that something aside from Android may make a push into the main OS for tablets, or that tablets themselves may not undertake some fundamental change.

temperedglass wrote:
Mar 2nd 2011 3:55 GMT

Like someone else mentioned, these sales figures look really inflated to me. Regardless, this trend has to make the executives at Microsoft a bit nervous. For the first time, casual PC users have reasonably priced, well designed alternatives to the Windows based PC. Whether it be Apple, Android or some other OS, I could see these tablets really eroding Microsoft's market share in home computing. I'm sure Microsoft will eventually release an OS for tablet based computing, it might be Windows Phone 7 or a variant, but their OS will have intense competition the first time in a long time.

thetechgeek wrote:
Mar 2nd 2011 3:59 GMT

The iPad will probably end the year as the top tablet still because today, they're unveiling the iPad 2. However, the largest announcement this year from Apple will be the iPad 3, which will be released later this year. The iPad 2 will only be a pit stop between the iPad and iPad 3.

Read the report here:
The Daily Tech has contacted an Apple insider who has confirmed the MobileMe and iPad 3 rumors!!

Read their report here:
http://www.thedailytech.co/?p=245

Mar 2nd 2011 4:07 GMT

The only problem with this chart is that assumes all purveyors of tablets will have equal access to the supplies needed to construct them. This is a false premise. Apple has a good portion of the supply chain in it's pockets and is using main processors that they design for the CPU and have partnered with key industry players on the rest.

The barriers to entry are quite high here.

AKanz wrote:
Mar 2nd 2011 4:07 GMT

Waiting for the Blackberry Playbook, as i'd never touch an apple product.. Not because they aren't good, but just because it's apple. The Playbook does look promising, but i still don't see the point in buying a tablet at all.

GRHansen wrote:
Mar 2nd 2011 4:19 GMT

Even if these predictions will come true, Apple will still have 40% of this market, and another 40% of mobile-tech tablets will be spread among a dozen makers. Sounds like Apple dominance to me. Remember all the speculated promise of iPod killers?

Zambino wrote:
Mar 2nd 2011 4:27 GMT

@trustbutverify - Indeed, but you forget that Apple products have batteries that can't be changed and that fail after 18 months so over 5 years, each consumer will need a replacement tablet 3 times. And of course you must have the latest to be in with "i" crowd, so possibly you'll replace them every 6 months when Apple issues a new version ;)

Mar 2nd 2011 4:42 GMT

@Zambino
Point well taken, my friend. I actually do know several trend-conscious individuals who are on their third iPhone by now.

ChrisGrayson wrote:
Mar 2nd 2011 4:48 GMT

Are "expected to"... expected to based on what? That's not saying the chart is wrong, but this is speculation at best, an opinion piece dressed up to look "official" by putting it into a chart. You're also committing a common sin among pundits in the tech space -- You're comparing a single companies output to the output of the entire rest of the industry. At least in the past when pundits compared Windows desktop machines to Macs, a large part of the markup was going into Microsoft's pocket. With Android, Google is making very little money off of these sales, and the hardware manufacturers are divided up between about two-dozen-or-more other companies. If instead you separated these by manufacturer, a much more realistic reflection of the market, in 2015 you would still have Apple dominating with about 30% of the market, and the other 70% of the market divided up between a list of different companies where the #2 player has 6% or 8% and all the rest have 2% or less. If I were in Apple's shoes, this chart would look awesome ... if this is the "worst case scenario" by Apple naysayers, we should all race out and buy more Apple stock now.

Iamsopure wrote:
Mar 2nd 2011 5:01 GMT

It seems taht a new revolution is coming. And there is a strange phenomenon that each time when I glimpse at the word "tablet computer, I will mix it up with "table computer".

dazhang wrote:
Mar 2nd 2011 5:11 GMT

I just want to know more how and who calculated this. Wouldn't we still be counting the 2016 shipment of iPad in 2015? Or some more si-fi mobile terminals? I don't even believe iPad will have that long product life.

hmmmmmmm wrote:
Mar 2nd 2011 5:59 GMT

@trustbutverify
"If I add all the bars in this chart, I get close to a billion tablets in about 5 years! Something tells me 1 out of 7 people on earth will not own a tablet computer, when about 3 out of 7 are still trying to get food, shelter, and basic ameneties"

It's not that 1 billion people will buy 1 billion Ipads, it's the select 200 million will buy 5 ipads. One every year when a new one comes out.

Collegian wrote:
Mar 2nd 2011 6:01 GMT

This "forecast" looks hugely optimistic. Unless tablet prices drop by hundreds of percent, there is no way such optimistic sales growth is justified. And I doubt prices will drop that much...

Mano D wrote:
Mar 2nd 2011 6:19 GMT

This prediction is such a joke, I remember working in an PDA startup in 2004, we had these stupid forecasts five years ahead about PDAs...

Probably most of you don't know what is a PDA.

Mano D wrote:
Mar 2nd 2011 6:20 GMT

This prediction is such a joke, I remember working in an PDA startup in 2004, we had these stupid forecasts five years ahead about PDAs...

Probably most of you don't know what is a PDA.

RichL123 wrote:
Mar 2nd 2011 6:35 GMT

This is nonsense. Who comes up with these figures? And hours before the new iPad is announced, without knowing what it is? As if anyone can even reliably predict such a new market anyway? We don't even truly know what these things are yet. Total nonsense.

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