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Gerontocracy

Feb 15th 2011, 14:23 by The Economist online

Does the difference between the age of a country's people and its leader matter?

ONE much-discussed cause of the Jasmine Revolution in the Arab world is the age difference between youthful populations and grizzled leaders. Egypt's median age is 24. President Hosni Mubarak was the fifth-oldest leader in the world before he was toppled aged 82. The countries in the chart below suggest that such a wide gap is more common in autocracies like Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Algeria, Cuba and North Korea (where Kim Jong Il celebrates his 70th birthday on February 16th). Democracies, by contrast, seem to prefer more youthful leaders these days, though India and Italy are exceptions to this trend.

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Swiss Reader wrote:
Feb 15th 2011 5:06 GMT

While Italy's leader indeed is relatively old, at least the First Girlfriends are mostly very young.

TheGrimReaper wrote:
Feb 15th 2011 5:33 GMT

I really think the correlation between authoritarism and president's age isn't as evident as the Economist wants to prove.
What's obvious, though, is Mr Mubarak's (former) position. He was very old because nobody would have ousted before the February 2011 uprising. He held Egypt's reins alone and steered through unemployment, dire poverty and social discontent singlehandedly. His sway and position at the top of the hierarchy could have been perpetuated if the Jasmine spark hadn't ignited Egypt revolutionnary frenzy. He could have lasted on the throne until his demise. But history caught him up and stipped him out the honor to govern Egypt.

I think that Yemen is the next one to burst out of the autocratic cocoon. Although sporadic demonstrations have been snuffed out by policemen repressive action, Yemenis aren't as downtrodden as they used to. Tunisia's upheavale had echoed so thunderingly and briskly through the Arab World that many dictatorship's opponents breathed a fresh whiff of inspiration. As they feel stronger, as they are increasingly reinvigorated by their neighbours's democratic deeds, they'll probably combat on behalf of democracy along with its all-encompassing values. Unless Arab monarchs decide suddenly to tighten the military belt over their people at an unexpected pitch. A new chapter is undoubtedly being written in 2011. However, it's definitely time to turn the page of autocracy and deadened liberties.
A new horizon is being outlined and future prospects for peace and democracy could surface, provided the Arab world fight off its dictators.

No Mist wrote:
Feb 15th 2011 5:34 GMT

India and Italy have more in common. A civilizational legacy which is great and wounded at the same time - much to be proud of and much to abhor also. Widespread corruption which seemingly doesn't affect the growth. Villages which are cesspools of backwardness (in case of India). Nepotism which makes all governance look like mockery. And also a youngish democracy. Italy has had a more violent recent past than India though.

No wonder perhaps that both have very aged leaders.

Feb 15th 2011 6:00 GMT

So who should run things? The e-trade baby?

Any leaders of character out there??

Permanganate wrote:
Feb 15th 2011 6:16 GMT

The UK has a pair of daft greenhorns in charge – the youngest leader and the smallest differential. Hmm. I would prefer some white-haired experience, please. (Not Ken Clarke!)

ongdoxn wrote:
Feb 15th 2011 6:17 GMT

Why wasn't Vietnam selected to this group?
President: Born 1942 (aged 69)
Prime Minister: Born 1949 (aged 62)
General Secretary: Born 1944 (aged 67)

Feb 15th 2011 7:37 GMT

To make better sense of this data I would recommend segmenting it into three groups:

Autocratic regimes are obviously only limeted by their own life expectancy. Power is pried away from cold, dead or very wrinkled hands.

Young vibrant democracies with large voter turnouts tend to make a logical connection between age, experience and competence, electing leaders in their 50s and 60s.

Lastly, old, stale, populist rich world democracies with low voter turnouts have seen their elections gradually devolve into televised beauty contests.

Sir Harold wrote:
Feb 15th 2011 8:36 GMT

"Median age of population" is a bit misleading piece of data to use in this context, because it includes children - and nobody expects a toddler to be a leader. It would be perhaps better to measure a "median age of population eligible to hold public office" for this purpose.

Robert North wrote:
Feb 15th 2011 9:01 GMT

I take issue with the notion that politicians are leaders.

Feb 15th 2011 11:38 GMT

How about average life expectancy of leaders?

Eliseo64 wrote:
Feb 15th 2011 11:53 GMT

It could be nice having the same chart but showing how much money they have stolen meanwhile are being in office. It should be a good indicator of efficiency..

Truth-bearer wrote:
Feb 16th 2011 1:16 GMT

An interesting analysis . Smaller difference between the median age and the age of leader lets the masses relate more easily to the authorities and may give them a sense of participation.

A more cumbersome analysis can take into account the average age of the group in power and that of the median age of a nation .

Li xiaoyu wrote:
Feb 16th 2011 2:32 GMT

with the fantastic CROSS....it looks like that Mubarak has been dead....

j2w wrote:
Feb 16th 2011 5:16 GMT

I can't really understand about India. How could almost all the political parties select out the aged ones as their leaders ? maybe it is something to do with the culture - respect for elders. :)

Cloudwarrior wrote:
Feb 16th 2011 7:45 GMT

Just goes to prove that old people are bossy......

JoeSolaris wrote:
Feb 16th 2011 8:02 GMT

That Germany, Italy and Japan, the former defeated countries of the Axis alliance, are the three most gerontocratic societies is no surprise. Sociologists have long noted in our countries that postwar reconstruction was achieved also by falling back onto traditional, and traditionalist, family structures. This pattern might seem slightly less obvious in modern Germany, but not if one compares the country to other Nordic societies. Germany's "Mittelstand" and Italy's "Distretti Industriali" are all made up of family businesses - rarely if ever headed by a mother/wife. There is no doubt both women and youth are left disadvantaged by these political, economic and social systems.

Meysam wrote:
Feb 16th 2011 8:45 GMT

There is a mistake in the graph, where Iran Leader is assumed to be 55. It seems that the author has MISTAKENLY assumed AhmadiNejad (born in 1956) to be the leader of Iran, while it is totally WRONG.
The "Supreme" leader of is Khanemei (born in 1939), thus, the age of leader of Iran is 72.

Kunkka wrote:
Feb 16th 2011 8:54 GMT

The chart is totally misleading! The median age of population is mainly depends on the distribution of the ages, especially the proportion of old people which is closely related to the life circumstancing, medical condition and life style. Meanwhile, the regime plays an critical role on the age of leaders. A authoritarian state of course has an old leader. The leader's age in some degrees can illustrate the democratic level, but it is irrelevant to the average age.

Feb 16th 2011 11:24 GMT

India: Rahul Gandhi is only 39, and after Dr. Manmohan Singh retires, he's in line ... unless the ruling Congress gets blindsided by Narendra Modi (~55), which is alright too. I don't see any other scenario.

LaContra wrote:
Feb 16th 2011 5:09 GMT

Maybe it's time to implement the 'Logan's Run' option?
(for politicos at least)

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