Business travel

Gulliver

Business travel on the rise

Fired up and ready to go?

Feb 13th 2011, 16:29 by N.B. | WASHINGTON, DC

IT SURE SEEMS like every newspaper in America is running Scott Mayerowitz's piece on the ongoing business travel rebound. After all, everyone likes good news:

U.S. companies are forecast to spend 5 percent more on travel in 2011 than they did last year — a sign of confidence in the economy that is giving a boost to airlines, hotels and rental-car companies. That's double the growth rate from 2010, which followed two years of decline.

This makes sense, of course. It's hard to imagine 3.2% GDP growth without a business travel expansion. But as my colleague at Free Exchange did with those GDP growth numbers, Gulliver feels obligated to sound a note of caution. America's economic recovery remains fragile. Employment growth remains sluggish. Mr Mayerowitz notes that corporate retreats are coming back into vogue. That's good news for the hospitality industry. But what would really benefit every sector of the economy—and every business-travel-dependent business—is more people returning to work. Unfortunately, that's not what's happening right now.

Here's the reality: most analysts don't expect business travel spending to return to its pre-recession highs until mid-2013. We're starting to travel more, but we're flying coach, not business class. We're not even necessarily flying direct. We may be going on corporate retreats, but they're at bargain destinations. Average cost-per-trip, a key measure, is still 6% below its 2008 high. Mr Mayerowitz gets to all this in his story—but not until the ninth and tenth paragraph. By then, many readers will have drifted off. They won't even realize that the trumpeted "return of corporate retreats" means retreat bookings are expected to bounce back to "just short of their 2007 level." Things are looking up, sure. But there is still a long, hard climb ahead.

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Faedrus wrote:
Feb 13th 2011 4:47 GMT

"Here's the reality: most analysts don't expect business travel spending to return to its pre-recession highs until mid-2013."

So, that means we have at least one, or perhaps two, years of stock run-up.

Bad for the travel industry. Good for holders of equity.

willstewart wrote:
Feb 13th 2011 5:43 GMT

Well insofar as the trips and retreats generate new ideas and orders because (& in proportion to the extent that) they happen and not because they happen in style this must mark an improvement in productivity must it not? And productivity creates jobs.

To be sure spending more money on something you could get for half the price (like business class) puts profits up at airlines but only at the expense of productivity and thus long-term job creation. How much good did Sadam's palaces do the Iraqi economy?

Anjin-San wrote:
Feb 14th 2011 10:26 GMT

Which would you choose?

A. Coach class trip both ways + 2 nights stay
B. Business class on redeyes both ways. Zero stay.

I did the B. last week to Singapore, because I had prior commitments on days both before and after in Tokyo that could not be shifted to someone else. The experience was only survivable thanks to Singapore Airlines. (Japanese airlines don't use their top-notch airframes for their Singapore runs)

Badger_Prof wrote:
Feb 15th 2011 6:38 GMT

Anjin-San

You might want to know that the Delta SIN-NRT-SIN route uses a 777-200LR configured with lie flat beds in business class.

Anjin-San wrote:
Feb 16th 2011 5:47 GMT

@Badger_Prof
Sorry, I forgot to mention that the outbound flight was HND-SIN. I needed a flight out of Haneda for the outbound leg.

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