Banyan's notebook

Indonesia Foreign Minister rejects China’s stance that the U.S. stay out of territorial disputes in the South China Sea.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-22/indonesia-rejects-china-stance-...

Indonesia may be first among equals in the ASEAN 10 (if it wants to, which isn't entirely clear) but still, ASEAN works on consensus and Indonesia needs to persuade the other 9 if its voice is to carry weight.

My reading is that now that ASEAN has been painted into a corner by the US, it will need now to work hard to placate China or China will start playing favourites within the group as US also seems to do and ASEAN as a group will end up the loser.

Indonesia had not esperienced the wraths of the Imperial Barbarism wreaked on the Ummah like in Afghanistan, Iraq, Somalia, Iran, etc. turning Sovereign states into rubbles and killing millions in the process. Perhaps the Indonesians had done enough to soothe the Anglos for their own Jihadist attacks on the West.

Malaysia may not that confident about the re-entry of the Hegemon in the geo-politics becos the Zionists have been fingering Malaysia as a key base for 9/11 attack.

China isnt creating too many friends except probably some oil/ore rich zones in Africa. While you still hear support for the American (though fool hearty) campaigns to march into Iraq, Afghanistan.. there is just no body to support China.
It only suggests that the Chinese are way away from being a super power of sorts. Not only poor diplomacy but also not the right attitude to walk around the globe.
As someone said, with the way they are operating, they arent certainly the eligible heirs to earth at the moment

Theosophist wrote:
Sep 23rd 2010 11:21 GMT

China isnt creating too many friends except probably some oil/ore rich zones in Africa. While you still hear support for the American (though fool hearty) campaigns to march into Iraq, Afghanistan.. there is just no body to support China.
It only suggests that the Chinese are way away from being a super power of sorts. Not only poor diplomacy but also not the right attitude to walk around the globe.
As someone said, with the way they are operating, they arent certainly the eligible heirs to earth at the moment
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@ Theosophist

China is not a superpower. USA is superpower of the world...

ASEAN should heed the warning from the Hegemon's next door neighbour Calderon who said that the Hegemon is creating conflicts in Mexico and Africa in order to sell the arms. It is hoped that the stupid Indonesia will now increase their military budget while sending their daughters as maids to MiddleEast under dreadful conditions.

"But if there is one thing they like less than feeling neglected by America, it is being harangued by China."

Maybe. But as Indonesia is showing China also needs to get used to ASEAN's "hedging". Sooner or later. Sooner the better. "Haranguing" is counterproductive and only shows ur a bully and makes the neighbors all the more hedge toward US. Indonesia an Islamic country won't take it lying face down and won't be "awed" by China however hard she tries.

Well, some strategists might say that testing China when it's occupied elsewhere (i.e. with Japan) is the way to go.

That being said this is a thorny issue. I am still not sure if this is one of those cases where both China and the ASEAN countries all have good claims to the waters, as in the China-Japan case? Can someone elucidate?

Just like any international relationship, ASEAN's relationship with China is far more multi-faceted. The contention over sea boarder with some of the ASEAN countries indeed casts a long shadow. However, the mutual benefit from ever-closer economic ties is much more important to the region. Thinking ASEAN will jeopardize a fallout with China by forming an alliance with US to contain China is naive at best.

Maybe Philippines will make up for the hostage fiasco by siding with China in the dispute, although it also has territorial claims.

The Economist says “China in any event prefers not to deal with ASEAN as a block on the South China Sea: it likes to pick off rival claimants one by one.”

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Lies are cheap, even for the Economist.

The very first FTA of ASEAN as a block with a foreign nation and taking effect in January, 2010 is not with the US, not Japan, not anyone else but with China, of the now rather famous [ASEAN +1] FTA. This shows the contention that “China in any event prefers not to deal with ASEAN as a block” is simply hogwash.

For South China Sea, there is no such thing as a block among ASEAN nations, and it never did have one, until the US is now trying to bring back and force feed the cold war ploy to ASEAN nations (remember SEATO?) to plug its unfriendly and hostile “containment” act.

China should and must deal any territorial claim in South China Sea bilaterally as each such claim is unique nationally with no common denominator among the nations.

ASEAN nations need to think hard whether or not to allow their nations being reduced to some buffer agent of the US ploy against China.

It’s their respective national interest, not the US interest, at stake.

"ASEAN nations need to think hard whether or not to allow their nations being reduced to some buffer agent of the US ploy against China..."

Perhaps China has to dangle more carrot than stick otherwise even a former ally like Vietnam can turn to its former enemy USA.

It is always good to hedge your bet with the enemy of your enemy. But like co-religionist Saddam, the Indonesian may find it too late to regret the Hegemon's backward assing by inviting it in to settle its dispute with Iran.

The complicating factor in SC Sea is that in some cases, the dispute is not with China alone but among several ASEAN members themselves. I hope WSJ today is right in saying some within China has come to realisation that pronouncing SC Sea as another of its "core interests" was wrong. It's the one single thing that unites ASEAN in terror against China. And ASEAN is nothing without a collective sense of external threat.

Let us remember that for over a century America has considered the Americas to be not just a "core interest" but a backyard. We have casually installed and toppled governments therein to secure American interests of no greater strategic significance than a banana plantation. Talk about "picking off claimants one by one". Latin America didn't even bother to try to form an organization similar to ASEAN because American dominance was so complete it would be pointless.

And to be perfectly rational, does America have any legitimate claim to act as any sort of arbiter in the South China Sea, or the Taiwan Strait for that matter? If America bases the legitimacy of its claim to be the world's policeman upon democracy, shouldn't the world be able to vote on it? Or is this really just "might makes right?" If that is the case, America is offering China every motivation to militarize as quickly as possible so that she may offer her services as policeman to any disputed waters between America and, say, Cuba, Venezuela, or Nicaragua.

A direct conflict between the US and China, which is wished for by some ASEAN nations, just simply will not and can not happen. If the US had wanted it, they would have coaxed Taiwan to declare independence years ago.

Another possible outcome, is a proxy war fighting with the US dollars but by men from an Asian country. This is the US's preferred strategy, which it has been doing around the globe for half a century. Let's see which ASEAN nation is stupid enough to volunteer as the cannon fodder.

The wise choice for ASEAN nations, is to stay neutral for now, let the US and China duel elsewhere, and welcome the winner after the dust settles.

When two heavy-weights fight, the most injured one is not the heavy weights, but the small guy who jumps into the fight, and the one who gains the most is not the heavy-weights either, but the small guy who shows up after the fight.

I don't think China and Indonesia has any territorial disputes in the South China Sea, is there?

So the comment from the Indonesia Foreign Minister is just a lot of hot air.

The territorial disputes in the South and East China Seas will never be resolved in any manner that would please any party in my opinion. Since U.S. wanted so badly to be mediator, the best solution is to build a Disney Resort and Park in every island. There you go. Problem solved. Everybody happy, your children, children will also be happy.

congratulations Asean . U have have been snared by the Western
media n US to encourage the birth of another world monster. The
world's first super terrorist state is US because of it's military industrial
complex economy whiich it cannot dismantle , now U have tilt Chinese
internal debate in favor of those who wants to emulate n challenge
the existing monster USA by building their own military industrial
complex! I can understand Japan's selfish conniving self interest
but could not understand your collective stupidity.

Vietnam needs to stand alone on this with more weapon research, more missile production more military spending,a lot more territories are at stake for Vietnam, Vietnam has first hand experienced siding with China and America, the result is both a disaster. the Forum that is full of Bannana republics has never really fought China or America, dont' count on them to back you up at sea. If china really wants a fight just look up their history textbooks and see how many fights it has with vietnam.

politico-economist: "My reading is that now that ASEAN has been painted into a corner by the US , it will need now to work hard to placate China or China will start playing favourites within the group as US (sic) also seems to do and ASEAN as a group will end up the loser."

justlistenall: "ASEAN nations need to think hard whether or not to allow their nations being reduced to some buffer agent of the US ploy against China."

I hate to say it, but for once I actually agree with politico-economist. Not the stupid thing written above, but, "It's the one single thing that unites ASEAN in terror against China. And ASEAN is nothing without a collective sense of external threat." I thought no one was going to bring this up.

A common enemy is one of the best unifiers. At least one theory for why nation-states form from tribes is that a group of more-or-less similar tribes face a common threat, and therefore form a long-term alliance against that threat. ASEAN may not be the one that has bit off more than it can chew; there's a slim chance China may have done so.

Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam are all major ASEAN member states. Vietnam has long been pining for ASEAN to form a military alliance. Antagonizing Indonesia is idiotic. Indonesia and China have no disputes over islands. Indonesia is the second largest country in East Asia. Pro-Chinese should not want Indonesia to get involved if there is no reason for it to get involved. Almost the same thing with the Americans, except the United States likes to patrol in the territorial waters of its allies and ensure the free flow of oil and other commodities through the area, so the US does have an interest in the region.

Maybe China throwing a tantrum like a giant crybaby will drive ASEAN to actually form a strong union. Doubtful, given the background of many Southeast Asian leaders, but possible. A unified ASEAN 'country' could be a match for China. ASEAN has a smaller population, but would still be the third most populous country in the world after India. ASEAN is more strategically located than China. And ASEAN, through Thailand and the Philippines, would have a mutual defense treaty with the United States, which will remain the dominant military power all by itself, as well as in conjunction with allies, for many more years to come.