Banyan's notebook

THE terms “Central Asia” and “coalition government” have rarely, if ever, sat in the same sentence. But on November 30th, after weeks of haggling following an election in October, three parties in Kyrgyzstan announced agreement to form a government. They are just in time to greet America’s secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, when she flies in to the capital, Bishkek, on December 2nd, and, if they feel so bold, to discuss with her two of the more entertaining American diplomatic cables so far released by WikiLeaks.

Uniquely among the five “stans”—former Central Asian republics of the Soviet Union—Kyrgyzstan has had two people-power revolutions since independence in 1991. Both in 2005 and in April this year, people have taken to the streets to topple presidents seen as dictatorial, nepotistic and corrupt.

The transitional government that took power this year when Kurmanbek Bakiyev was driven into exile vowed to put an end to strongman rule. It secured approval for a constitution turning the country into the region’s first parliamentary democracy. The rules, designed to ensure no party could become too powerful, made coalition government almost inevitable. 

Many governments elsewhere in the region, where strongmen still rule, will be hoping this experiment fails. It does indeed have the odds stacked against it. Bloody ethnic violence directed at the Uzbek minority in the south in June has left deep scars. And, though the political system may be brand new, the politicians are the same old faces. They are survivors from previous regimes, and members of the small elite which has squabbled so viciously in the past. An explosion in Bishkek this week at the court where some of Mr Bakiyev's allies face trial for the shooting of protesters in April showed the continuing danger of violence.

Kyrgyzstan does enjoy an advantage, however: geography. Its strategic location makes it courted by the great powers. Both America and Russia maintain military bases near Bishkek. The American Manas air base, or “transit centre”, as it is now called, is used for supporting American and NATO troops in Afghanistan. It is an important part of a northern supply route developed because of the vulnerability of convoys coming through the Khyber Pass from Pakistan. Russia’s base in Kant is part of an agreement by the Collective Security Treaty Organisation, which groups together seven members of the former Soviet Union, to set up a counter-terrorism base in the region. 

Russia, the former imperial power, still sees Central Asia as very much its own stamping-ground, so the Manas base has been a source of friction. In 2009 Mr Bakiyev promised Russia it would be closed and was promised aid in return. He reneged on the deal when America increased the rent it was paying.

Now, thanks to WikiLeaks, we know that Kyrgyzstani politicians had told America last year that China also offered it $3 billion if it would close the base. The idea seems improbable but not impossible. China’s behaviour over North Korea, after all, is often interpreted as intended to keep that country as a “buffer”, and avoid having American troops on its own border—as they already are in Kyrgyzstan.

In a very amusing account of her confronting China’s ambassador with this claim, America’s envoy, Tatiana Gfoeller, notes that it made him splutter and temporarily lose the power of Russian speech, but not quite issue a categorical denial. He did, however, say the idea was impossible and that China had only commercial interests in Kyrgyzstan. He looked daggers at his otherwise silent aide when he interjected (presumably in jest) the suggestion that “maybe you should give them $5 billion and buy both us and the Russians out.”

Ms Gfoeller might have a second career as a comic writer. Her other contribution to the WikiLeaks revelations is a laugh-out-loud account of a brunch meeting last year between British businessmen and Prince Andrew, a member of Britain’s royal family who, bizarrely, has a diplomatic role as a “trade envoy”. Conversation over brunch turns to corruption, about which the prince appears to have strong (and surprising) views. His apparently devoted audience “chorused that nothing gets done in Kyrgyzstan if President Bakiyev’s son Maksim does not get ‘his cut’.” 

This reminds the prince of France. But though the younger Mr Bakiyev, who fled to Britain to seek political asylum, denies involvement in any malpractice, it is also a reminder that the culture of close and dubious links between political power and commercial opportunity is deeply rooted in Kyrgyzstan as elsewhere in the region. One perception Mrs Clinton will want to change is that America, in its keenness to keep Manas going, ploughed money into companies linked with Maksim Bakiyev, and helped prop up a now discredited regime.