LexHumana's comments

Mar 2nd 2011 9:41 GMT

People are pooh-poohing the EMH as if it was a single theory that said "you can't beat the market". That is not what the EMH says at all.

First, EMH comes in three different flavors, weak, semi-strong, and strong. I don't think anyone can disagree that, at a minimum, the weak form of EMH is true. The strong version I think is generally rejected by most people, and there is spirited debate about the validity of the semi-strong version.

Second, the EMH does not say that you can NEVER beat the market. What is says is that you cannot outperform the market on a consistent basis, because the wider market quickly incorporates available information in establishing market-clearing prices, therefore the window of opportunity for information arbitrage is small and fleeting. I think this is true, because even Warren Buffett acknowledges that he has had plenty of losers in his career. Buffett does a better job than most because he has access to information and analysis that most investors do not.... and when Buffett makes investments, you often see the rest of the market mimicking his moves. When Buffett invests, his finanicial leverage means he also often gets premium deals and guarrantees that the masses do not enjoy. Thus, investors like Buffett take advantage of that information imbalance, as well as his financial leverage, to get deals that the average investor cannot take advantage of.

I think EMH is valid at least in its weak form, and that the greater market does incorporate available information (both good information and bad information) into price determinations.

A. D. wrote: Mar 2nd 2011 5:02 GMT "LexHumana:
I would describe the public dog park, paid by private donations, as a public good (not supplied by the government, but still a public good)
They are public goods because the benefits accrue to everyone, whether they themselves paid for it or not, so you have the free-rider problem.
Yes, the private sector sometimes builds things like this - but it's for charity, not profit."

Your point is well taken. A dog park built with private donations technically does not have to be a public good, because a privately built park can have its access restricted (although in my old neighborhood, it was open-access to all). The example of planting trees is definitely a classic "public good" because it is non-rival and non-excludable. However, my point is that there is an (erroneous) underlying assumption that all "public goods" must, by necessity, be provided by the government, and that if the government does not fund it, it will never occur.

A good example of a purely private effort creating a public good would be a family that chooses to plant trees and colorful flowers on their property, put up bird-feeders, and keep the exterior of their house well maintained and well painted and attractive. This is clearly a purely private activity, but the resulting visual pleasure is enjoyed by all passsersby as non-rival and non-excludable (assuming that there is not some massive privacy fence surrounding everything). The government is not the sole provider of all "public goods", nor does it have to be.

Mar 2nd 2011 6:27 GMT

You shouldn't count on southerners' pronunciations, as they are truely unique on the planet. There is a town in Georgia named "Cairo" that is pronounced "Kay-Row". The street in Atlanta is pronounced "pon-s" by the locals, but in Puerto Rico it is pronounced "pon-seh" (not a long "pon-SAY", but a short "seh" sound). Of course, we anglos tend to butcher spanish pronunciations anyway.

In Georgia, I have also seen the word "Houston" (which is pronounced "hew-stun" by everyone else) pronounced "House-ston". The word pecan is a "pee-can" in Georgia, and a "puh-khan" everywhere else.

Of course, I shouldn't pick on Georgia exclusively. I was originally born in Missouri, where we have towns named Milan (MY-lan), Versailles (Ver-SAILS), Creve Couer (kreeve-coor), Auxvasse (ox-VASS-y), and Rolla, which was named after Sir Walter Raleigh, but nobody could apparently spell back when the town was founded.

Mar 2nd 2011 5:42 GMT

jomiku wrote: Mar 2nd 2011 5:19 GMT
"And yet when one points out we all benefit from cheaper labor provided by immigrants, people object."

Excellent point. I have previously noted that from the beginning of the first colonies, our country was built on the back of either free (slaves) or cheap (immigrants) labor, and that our appetite for the cheapest labor possible has never disappeared. The immigration debate has a lot of fury in it, but the illegal immigrant population in the U.S. exists because we as a nation deliberately turned a blind eye to immigration enforcement for decades, all because we wanted those immigrants as a source of ultra-cheap labor.

Mar 2nd 2011 5:36 GMT

@ rewt66

You say that my "snark" didn't address hedgefundguy's position, namely that "hedgefundguy challenged R.A.'s position, arguing that replacing mom-and-pop businesses with WalMart had some significant negative effects on the community."

If you re-read the posts, you will see that I directly challenged this premise at its root level -- Walmart did not displace mom-and-pop stores to begin with. Mom-and-pop stores are dying off for reasons that have nothing to do with whether Walmart is around or not. You and hedgefundguy are creating a false correlation, assuming that Walmart causes the death of mom-and-pops, when in reality there are underlying social, economic, political, and demographic changes that enable stores like Walmart to flourish and mom-and-pops to die. When hedgefundguy raised his polemic against Walmart and for mom-and-pop stores, the underlying premise was "Walmart bad, small retailers good", implying that the job opportunities Walmart brings are not worth it... thus my statement that he is implying that the unemployed are better staying unemployed.

Walmart, just like every other major retailer, is merely taking advantage of changes in our demographics. Mom-and-pop retailers are dying because of those same changes. Neither is directly correlated with each other; instead, they are both correlated to common, underlying causes. The villagers need to put away their torches and pitchforks, because there is no Frankenstein's big-box monster lurking about murdering small local retailers.

@ M.S.

"You either want trees on your sidewalks or you don't. If you want them, you'll have to pay taxes so the government can plant them, unless you live in a gated community, in which case you can play a semantic game and call your taxes "maintenance fees"."

Herein lies the problem -- you are assuming that only the government can plant trees (or make dog parks). (I will concede that only a government can build and operate a carrier battlegroup, not because it is not profitable, but because it is prohibitively expensive -- not even Warren Buffett or Bill Gates can do it with their own resources).

Your use of the term "public goods" (as that term is used in economics) is outcome-determinative; if you label something as a public good, then by definition it becomes something that the government must pay for.

On the other hand, there are a variety of things that the general public might find useful or "good" (both in a moral sense or in a utilitarian sense). That does not automatically make them "public goods", insofar as they can be provided by a private sector entity. I have lived in a community that collected private donations to build a local dog park. I have also lived in a community where local groups like 4H and the Boy Scouts went around planting donated trees in parks and public grassy areas. It required no governmental input at all, other than getting the necessary permits and permissions.

Mar 2nd 2011 3:37 GMT

@ rewt66 and hedgefundguy,

I am snarky when I see ridiculous illogic being spouted as gospel. You both are reciting, chapter and verse, the myth that Walmart drives small mom-and-pop businesses out of business and harms the community. I have patiently attempted to explain using basic economics why this is not true, and why the mom-and-pop stores are REALLY dying off. However, it is painfully clear that you are on some sort of misguided crusade against big-box stores, somehow believing that if they simply went away the mom-and-pop stores would be thriving and local communities would be better off. To be blunt, Walmart could disappear tomorrow, and none of the mom-and-pop retailers would magically spring back to life, because the reasons they ultimately went out of business have nothing to do with Walmart.

Some people are clearly so driven by their mythological worldview that they are incapable of recognizing basic economic facts.

Mar 1st 2011 10:30 GMT

Bernardo O'Higgins wrote: Mar 1st 2011 9:57 GMT
"wal mart moves into an area with high unemployment and employs some of the unskilled unemployed for wages lower than the local businesses pay. The local businesses lose customers to wal mart and close down, firing all of their employees."

Soooo.... you are saying that 1) Walmart first creates more jobs than currently exist, 2) the jobs they offer all pay less than local competition, 3) they start undercutting local competition, 4) local competition is incapable of lowering their own labor costs by hiring any of those surplus workers who were clearly willing to work at a lower wage, leading to 5) because of their inability to lower their labor costs to compete, the local competition all go out of business.

Hmm.... I think the chain of reasoning falls apart somewhere around point #4.

Of course, the local competition MAY at first try to lower their labor costs, but for some OTHER reason cannot compete with Walmart. Now, in a world of internet price arbitrage, the cost of inventory to sell is actually pretty constant... Walmart may get occassional bulk rate discounts they can pass on to customers, but for the most part, the identical hammer will cost the same at Walmart as it does at the local hardware store as it does from an online retailer. So cost of inventory is not going to be the make-or-break reason Walmart has more customers.

To save you, and rewt66 and hedgefundguy the time and effort to puzzle this out, fundamentalist pretty much hit the nail on the head: What kills off many urban, neighborhood retailers is not big-box competition; it is the population loss that plague small town "downtowns" due to cheap, suburban land and the easy accessibility to that land provided by the automobile. Small towns have seen a mass exodus to cheap tract housing developments where they can take advantage of things like newer schools and amenities, lower cost-of-living, and better public services. Businesses like Walmart proactively locate to areas where the customers are, not the other way around.

Here is a real world example: I live in a relatively upscale, urban, downtown neighborhood that has a lot of small retailers -- a used book store, lots of restaurants, a small hardware store, a few bakeries (one that specializes in just pies, in fact), dry cleaners, several banks, etc. They are all surviving even in an economic downturn because the neighborhood itself is still pretty densely populated with a population with higher disposable incomes, and all of that local customer traffic takes advantage of the convenience of being able to walk to do their errands, rather than drive 20 minutes to the nearest mall of big-box stores. However, merely a few miles away, in another (worse) part of downtown, there are boarded up retailers and vacant buildings, because the local residents there have fled to the 'burbs. They have fled because of better schools, lower crime, lower taxes, and better public services.

Businesses go where the customers are, and customers go where their quality of life can be maximized. Far too many downtowns suffer from urban ills that drive away their population base. The existence of a Walmart may be the final straw for some customers, but the reason for the failure of a downtown area has nothing to do with whether a Walmart exists or doesn't exist.

Mar 1st 2011 9:34 GMT

rewt66 wrote: Mar 1st 2011 8:46 GMT
"No, hedgefundguy is saying that WalMart drives out local businesses, and local businesses pay better. That is, WalMart does not create new jobs, it merely moves them. The choice is not jobs at WalMart vs. no jobs; the choice is between jobs at WalMart and jobs at local businesses."

Funny... soooo... you're saying that Walmart moves into an area that has no unemployment and somehow entices all those workers at small businesses to leave their higher-paying jobs and come work for them at a lower wage?

Or maybe you are saying that Walmart comes into an area with no unemployment, and somehow -- without hiring any workers beforehand -- manages to drive all the small businesses out of business, thus forcing the now-unemployed workers from the small businesses to take lower-paying jobs at Walmart?

Or maybe you are saying that Walmart moves into an area with high unemployment, and sucks up all the available labor into lower-paying jobs, thus starving all the small businesses -- who would pay higher wages -- of available workers, thus driving them out of business?

Somehow, your economic theory seems flawed....

Mar 1st 2011 9:05 GMT

One of the many reasons I quit paying attention to the Washington Post: Ezra Klein is an unabashed left-wing advocate who is shameless enough to deliberately masquerade as a neutral journalist. But then again, there really isn't any "neutral journalism" anymore -- the news world is now solely made up of partisan bloggers who quote each other endlessly.

Now, now M.S., lets not get all in a twist just yet.

The first public school in the U.S. was started in 1821. Teach for America is a private charity that was founded in 1990. So for 169 years, public education in America managed to survive and educate generations of Americans without any input from Teach for America. Moreover, Teach for America, as a private charity, exists with private contributions whether or not the federal government chooses to contribute to it.

Just because something may be a good idea does not automatically mean that the federal government MUST subsidize it. I would love to see trees planted along every sidewalk in America, and have public dog parks for all neighborhoods, and a host of other quality-of-life initiatives.... but I also realize that the government may have more pressing things to spend its money on, and that the private sector can plant trees and build dog parks if it is really motivated to do so. I also realize that when we ask the government to subsidize all these great ideas, the money doesn't come out of thin air. That money is appropriated out of our collective pocketbooks, which means that we all collectively have a little less to pay our bills and stimulate our personal economies.

You people act as if 1) the only funding in the world MUST come from the government, and 2) every socially valuable idea you can think of MUST be paid for from the public fisc. Get over yourselves.

To follow up on the last observation in the post, the 'burbs are not the same 'burbs that I lived in as a kid anymore. The growing development of "towncenters", which are essentially satellite-cities, is a phenomenon I see everywhere. You don't have to go downtown to a city center anymore in order to "go downtown". The new model of the "towncenter" combines residential, office, and retail in one planned area community that is all within walking distance, essentially creating a suburban "downtown", complete with libraries, schools, theater, nightlife, and everything else you might want.

The traditional downtown is relocating out to the 'burbs.

Mar 1st 2011 8:29 GMT

"Nothing like a rich man arguing that new jobs aren't likely to be good enough for workers who are currently unemployed."

Amen R.A.

People have to stop looking at small businesses through rose-colored glasses. Mr. Shallal and Walmart are the same thing - capitalists. Capitalism does not contemplate charity. Capitalism is about one thing and one thing only, maximizing profits. Shallal wants to maximize profits by preventing low-cost competition. Walmart wants to maximize profits by using economies-of-scale to undercut high-cost competitors and making up for the difference in volume sales. Neither gives a damn about you or the local community until their primary purpose (maximizing profits) is met.

Mar 1st 2011 8:20 GMT

@ hedgefundguy,

So, you are basically saying that Walmart is so horrible, it is better for the unemployed to stay unemployed. Very enlightened viewpoint.

Mar 1st 2011 8:15 GMT

Western economies have only one real growth sector -- opinion blogs, which are growing as common as barstools and free time, and whose actual value is probably inversely correlated to both.

Mar 1st 2011 8:08 GMT

Wait a second, before I buy into this "teachers are underpaid" versus "teachers are overpaid" argument, lets look at some hard numbers. I am familiar with Virginia schools and teachers, so I checked some basic benchmark figures.

Virginia ranks in the middle of the pack in teacher salaries, making it a good benchmark for the national average.
Starting Salary: $33,200
Average Salary: $43,823
I don't have figures for the topmost salaries, but if there is a 10K difference between starting and average, it is not unreasonable to believe that the most senior teachers can make in the realm of $53,000.

http://teacherportal.com/salary/Virginia-teacher-salary

In 2009, Virginia’s per capita personal income was $44,129. National per capita income stood at $39,626.

http://vaperforms.virginia.gov/indicators/economy/personalIncome.php

Virginia does not permit public sector unions, and despite this lack of unionization, I don’t see teachers as being extraordinarily poor or extraordinarily rich. Starting teachers don't make much, but if you stick around, your income is probably similar to your neighbors, and if you are really long-lived in your career, you probably make a lot more than many of your neighbors.

Sure, if you went to medical school, law school, or got your MBA, you probably can make a lot more. But then again, if you wanted to take that career path, you wouldn't have become a teacher in the first place. When you choose a career (and no one holds a gun to your head and forces you to become a teacher or anything else for that matter), you implicitly accept all of the benefits and limitations that career holds. Not a bad gig overall.

Bernardo O'Higgins wrote: Feb 26th 2011 7:24 GMT
"The US already has a very successful cap and trade regime in place for sulfur in industrial emissions (once the cause of acid rain in the northeast and upper midwest). The system works fine despite trading on "hot air" and none of the issues you cite (measuring CO2 emissions, setting a price, etc) have been an issue in the sulfur program."

There are several critical differences in the sulfur dioxide cap and trade system that you didn't mention, that make it very different from the CO2 market.

Sulfur dioxide acts at a regional level -- emissions in Detroit cause acid rain in that region, but do not cause acid rain in Hong Kong. As a consequence, you can set up a regional cap and trade system and ensure that all relevant actors are properly encompassed in the scope of the system.

CO2 has a global effect (if you are a global warming believer). Detroit could reduce its own CO2 emissions, but if CO2 emissions go up by a comparable amount in Hong Kong, the net effect globally is zero. Moreover, the industries in Detroit will have taken on the extra cap-and-trade expenses as an additional cost of production, while their competitors overseas do not have such costs to worry about, making Detroit less competitive in the global marketplace. This is why a regional or even national CO2 cap-and-trade scheme is doomed to pointlessness -- the costs of compliance effectively act as a locally imposed tax, while not guaranteeing anything will be accomplished from a global warming perspective.

The only way a CO2 cap and trade system can feasibly work is a global agreement that MUST include all industrialized polluters. Of course, the problem is not only getting everyone to agree to participate, but also getting everyone to agree on what price to set on emissions, how much emissions should be permitted, how to measure compliance and catch cheaters, and what sanctions to impose on cheaters. If the Copenhagen talks were any indicia, the likelihood of getting any of this sorted out globally is nil. The international community cannot agree on meeting times and seating arrangements, let alone global emissions protocols.

Feb 25th 2011 9:30 GMT

El Guapo wrote: Feb 23rd 2011 5:44 GMT
"American Unions' rights to collectively bargain are protected by the National Labor Relations Act (1935). If the Wisconsin law passes, it will be overturned in a Federal Court."

El Guapo, you need to read the laws before you cite to them. State and local government employees are specifically exempt from the scope of the NLRA. They are covered only by whatever labor-relations laws the state chooses to pass, and there are some states that have flat-out outlawed public sector unions.

Feb 25th 2011 9:28 GMT

@ teacup775 and @ AJ76034:

"The purpose of a union is to represent labor in negotiations with those who pay their salaries. Intelligent Management balances union demands against the profit and investment required to continue functioning and continue providing jobs for union members."

"Let's be very clear about reality here: Business exists to make profit for the shareholders, not provide jobs, unionized or no."

Both of these comments miss the larger issue: the government is not a business. A buiness has to meet a bottom line, otherwise it goes bankrupt. In contrast, when government "goes into business" it can always shift its losses to the taxpayer. Thus, a government never really "goes into business," for it never truly has to make ends meet, which is the first requisite of business. A private sector business is constrained by the market -- if GM makes union contracts that render it insolvent, it doesn't have the luxury of simply passing the cost on the consumer, because the consumer will take their shopping elsewhere. The poor taxpayer has no such option -- when the government gives away more and more money, the taxpayer can't take their business to the government across the street because there is none: the government is a monopoly.

jomiku wrote: Feb 25th 2011 12:06 GMT
"As for the argument they don't pay social security tax, I thought I was really clear that these workers pay more than social security withholding. They generally pay more than social security and medicare combined."

No they don't -- their contribution to their pension plan may be greater than the 7.5% they would pay to social security, but you forget that not only does the private sector worker pay 7.5% into social security, they also pay into their own retirement plans. Those rates can vary, but often average out to 5% to 10%, so most private sector employees end up paying MORE of their paycheck upfront for retirement costs, compared to a non-covered public sector worker.

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