Lexington's notebook

How does this relate to American politics? Now that I disapprove, but perhaps this is better suited for Newsweek blog?

*Not that I disapprove

Long term, the US has certainly bet on the wrong horses in the Arab world. Perhaps our nudges toward reform will be more effective now that our authoritarian friends have seen Tunisia boil over. Can they change enough to save themselves ? Or maybe they'll try to clamp the lid down hard.

I'd be cultivating my contacts with the secular opposition if I were in charge.

This has little to do with the US anyway the US will back whoever is in power whether it is a rabid Dictator or a Democratic Government, it's called doing whatever is in your national interest.

Hopefully the other billion or so Arabs get some motivation to overthrow their corrupt Dictators from Egypt to Saudi Arabia to Tehran.

Only than will the majority of Arabs realize their potential as part of and contributors to the Civilized World as they were in the past (e.g. Jalaluddin Muhammad Akbar 1542-1605).

If not they will wallow in abject poverty and ignorance as yet another generation of humans pass them by.

This is somewhat related to the United States. Secretary of State Clinton just today urged Tunisia's new leadership to restore order. The State Dept. has already denied the WikiLeak diplomatic dump sparked the uprising. And, President Obama has already won the Nobel Peace prize.

K.A., by that logic, anything tangentially related to American actions, American interests, or American citizens abroad in the world would be appropriate for this column. Don't think so.

So what if Lexington wants to comment on Tunisia? This isn't his column, and he has both knowledge about the subject and an interest in commenting on it, so let him have his say.

Interesting to see how the government of Libya has reacted to this, choosing instead to appear kind and generous to its population. I'm a British teacher living and working in Tripoli, and you can read my blog at:
http://wispajones.blogspot.com/

Will Tunisia's revolution spread?
I think in due time it will. For mainly two reasons: most of the Arab leaders are in their eighties and no one lives forever, some monarchies are reaching the 3rd generation; based on the analysis of some historians (e.g. Ibn Khouldoun) this is where the typical Arab dynasty falls apart, in part due to its growing commitments and greed and the loss of fighting will.
As how this is related to America; it shows that there is a better way of changing regimes than massive war efforts that cost the tax payer 2 trillion dollars and counting.

This seems to perpetuate the same old fear into people's minds by asserting that there are Islamists v secularists in the Arab world. I wonder how much of it is actually true.

I doubt "Arabs" have ever been "passive or docile", and if that is what the average American politician believes, then it is indeed self-delusion. Think of the way Moroccans and Algerians organized to end French rule. Docile? Think of the Oufkir, military coup, against King Hassan. Think of organized unions in Morocco that gave such a hard time to the same. Think of the wide scale, relentless, rebellion in Algeria. Call that docility? And think of the popular support, since the Twenties, for the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. Passive?

What follows the overthrow of an authoritarian regime is often another one or two or three.

As the Bolsheviks proved in 1917-1921, in a chaotic country, you don;t need 20% or 10% or even 5% support from the populous to take control, all you need is discipline and a lot of undisciplined competitors. Eventually people will see you as the way to stability. Political Islam could do just that in Tunisia.

The only question then is whether The Economist will call them "mildly Islamic"

We talk of acting in the best interests of our home nations, but can we condone working with criminals to secure these interests?

The case that springs to mind is the recent deals the coalition government made with China to seal trade exports. Did the government, in its agreements, disregard the human rights of the Chinese people, by signing up to work with an authoritarian regime?

Great Mattsby,

How does this relate to American politics? Perhaps because Lexington feels it is appropriate to at least entertain a comparison of US politics to that of Pakistan. Why not? The lamestream news media are in the tank for the ruling party here, as in many third world countries like Kazakhstan. Obama's fiscal policies and the Fed's actions are reminiscent of Zimbabwe's finances. And they are taking away happy meals from kids in San Francisco as the Taliban forbids dancing and flying kites in their squalid little corner of the world.
As you can see, we are a beautiful melting pot of cultures.

If and when there will be even a weak democracy in the middle east, irrespective of whether the Islamicists or the seculars are in power, they both loath America equally; the ME will become an America free zone, very much like south America. People are sick and tired of America and its neo-imperial ambitions. Life for Israel too will become exceedingly difficult. Petro dollars will be spent on regional developement and peoples welfare rather than ending up in western banks and coffers. Intra-middle east trade which currently is absurdly small will have the chance and political enviornment to grow exponancially.

to Johnbjr who wrote: "What follows the overthrow of an authoritarian regime is often another one or two or three."
Would you extend that to the American Revolution?
In short, beware of generalizations.

Of course passive. I worked in Morocco twice. How many times did I hear Inshallah (If God wills it)? I heard it all the time. Moroccans are very passive. That is why what is going on in Tunisia is very surprising - they finally got fed up. Good for them.
What Tunisians need are three things - hope, work, and love. Finally they have hope but what the unemployed need next is work.

As an Arab who returned to live in the region after 22 years of life in Europe I very much agree with the underlying message in this piece. As a matter of fact, I was echoing the same thing to a fellow Arab colleague at the work the other day. Any Arabic reader of internet sites like elaph.com or follower of talk shows on al-Arabiya and Al-Jazeera, and those who follow news on cultural and social events around Beirut, Amman, Dubai, Cairo and other Arab cities cannot but agree that a new era is ushering. It is a social change that you might not always understand its direction, but you know it is not stagnant. I think the main impact of the Tunisian revolution will be "voluntarily" reforms done by incumbent rulers on the basis of the wisdom saying: if you want things to stay as they are, you have to change.

Lexington underestimates Islamists taking over in popular uprisings in the Arab world. They may not be numerically significant in many countries but they are usually etter organised and more determined than secular liberals enfeebled by years of cowing and opression from authoritarain regimes. Besides for many young Arabs, Islam is really the only game in Souk intellectually as they have never been exposed to any other ideas at all. This was not always the case. There was a time when many Arab countries had large Communist Parties for example which actively competed for the minds of the young with the Imams and jihadists. But even Communists, who usualy match Isalmists for oragnisation and discipline were often outsmarted or just out-thugged on the streets by Islamists once a regime collapsed.

We saw this with Tudeh in Iran who did most of the groundwork and fighting to bring down the Shah only for Khomeinists to steal power from right under their noses and sideline them within months. In Iraq, it was the Marxists who brought down the monarchy and then the Arif regime in 68 but Saddam's fascist ba'athists outgunned and outmurdered them after initially sharing power with them. Although little known outside Iraq, the killing of Iraq's Marxists and socialists went on till 1979 when Saddam finally killed the last remaining members.

Similar pattersn happened in Sudan, traditionally the most politically dynamic and alive in the Arab world and Africa. Islamist never had more than 25% popular support but they took power almost after every popular rising (Sudan has a long history of this) and now appear immovable.

So my feeling is if Arab dictatorships collapse, Islamists are indeed best placed to take over. The trick for the West is to let them and not give them ant credence by fretting about them or appearing to bully them as the West so stupidly did with Hamas. Islamists, like other religious fanatics thrive on victimhood by the 'other' and in the ever grumpy Arab street being victimed by the Western Kuffars sells like hot falafel.

Once Islamists are in power they usually become their own worst enemies through their oppression and brutality and people will eventually turn against them on their own.