Three SFS professors discussed the death of Osama bin Laden, its implications for the future and what it means for Al-Qaida in a discussion held in the Mortara Center May 5. The panel included Bruce Hoffman, director of the Center for Peace and Security Studies as well as the Security Studies Program (SSP); Daniel Byman, professor and former SSP director; and Paul Pillar, professor and expert in the intelligence community.
“Terrorist groups are like wounded animals. When cornered, they have to lash out to ensure their survival and to demonstrate their relevance,” Hoffman said in his opening remarks.
Retaliation was a theme Hoffman focused on, stating that he suspects something will happen approximately 40 days after Bin Laden’s death in accordance with Muslim mourning observations. Hoffman noted that sometimes it is effective to wait until people are back into complacency to plan an attack, but that terrorist groups will plan counterattacks to change the conversation after a big event – like the death of bin Laden.
Hoffman has concerns about terrorists using the same social networking tools that were used in the Arab Spring. Since the effectiveness of social networking was proven in the recent uprisings across the Middle East, Hoffman warned that Al-Qaida might start using this kind of networking, perhaps to even plan multiple small-scale attacks that would have a psychological effect, but would also be distracting and could enhance the likelihood of a more formidable attack.
“We also don’t know what serious attacks have already been in the pipeline that will unfold with greater determination or be accelerated,” Hoffman noted.
Though there was no doubt among the panelists that there would be future implications for the U.S. and western allies, but also for Pakistan.
“I think the President has played things publicly just right so far,” Pillar said in reference to Pakistan. By not “rubbing their nose in this,” the U.S. will gain leverage with Pakistan, Pillar said.
Byman noted that “the presence of bin Laden suggests either complicity or gross incompetence” by Pakistan. He continued that his instinct is that at least some level people were complicit, which means a bigger overall problem.
All of the professors noted the challenge Al-Qaida will face now that bin Laden is dead. Though unanimous in the opinion that this does not mean an end to the war on terrorism, they discussed whether or not this is really the final blow to Al-Qaida.
Al-Qaeda has already taken a huge hit lately with the Arab Spring, which showed an effective non-violent means for change, Byman said.
“Bin Laden’s main roles have been as a source of ideology, the main font of the extremist narrative and as a symbol,” Pillar said. He continued that those same roles can be held by a dead man. But he stressed that the appeal of the radical jihadist message has already lessened as evidenced by poll results.
Where these go from here depend less on death of a major leader and more on other events like where the Arab Spring goes from here. Hopes that have been raised so high and the extent to which they are realized or dashed will be factors, Pillar said.
“What does this mean for the periphery?” Hoffman questioned. He noted that the Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula, known as AQAP, is now as or more powerful than the core Al-Qaida. “They might be transformed into the preeminent force of terrorism in the world today,” Hoffman said.
- Jen Lennon | May 6, 2011
