The World in 2011: Cassandra

CASSANDRA apologises to those readers who unaccountably have no interest in sport, but he feels obliged to continue the focus on sport demonstrated yesterday by his colleague, J.K. The reason for this particular Cassandra (a British male of unexceptional tennis ability) is that Andy Murray (a British male of quite exceptional tennis ability) has today for the second consecutive year reached the final of the Australian Open, beating Spain’s David Ferrer in four hard-fought sets. With luck, on Sunday the young Mr Murray—still only 23—will become the first British male winner of a tennis grand slam since the great Fred Perry beat America’s Don Budge 10-8 in the fifth set at the US Open in 1936.

So should Cassandra predict a Murray victory in Melbourne against Serbia’s Novak Djokovic? The omens are tempting: the final, for the first time since 2008, will feature neither of the two best players in tennis today (and perhaps even in history), Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer. Last year, Mr Murray managed to beat Mr Nadal in the quarter-finals in Melbourne, but was then humiliated by Mr Federer in the final. Novak Djokovic, even though he won the Australian title in 2008 and is ranked third in the world, will not seem so intimidating to the fifth-ranked Mr Murray.

So let us indulge the temptation, albeit with fingers crossed. The question then is whether Mr Murray, often caricatured in the popular imagination in Britain as a surly Scot (especially in comparison with the always charming Messrs Federer and Nadal), will suddenly seem lovable to the British, especially the English. Cassandra confidently predicts a warm embrace: after all, everyone loves a winner…

TODAY is when the great and the good from the world of business, politics, academia, royalty and—even—journalism gather in the Swiss resort of Davos for the three-day annual talkfest of the World Economic Forum. Cassandra will not sneer, not least because colleagues from The Economist take part (and, indeed, take the time to blog) and also because “Davos” often produces good ideas on the big issues of the day—now summed up by the organisers as “the new reality”.

On the other hand, there will always be conspiracy-theorists who see Davos as part of a sinister plan by a world elite to rule the world (by which they mean in the interests of western-dominated global capitalism). It is not just Davos that they have in their sights, but also the secretive Bilderberg meetings (so secret that this year’s is not advertised on the Bilderberg site, though The World in 2011 predicts Athens in May…). And apart from Bilderberg there is also the Trilateral Commission, a grouping of the elite from America, Europe and Japan which will hold its annual meeting in Washington DC in April. 

So what should a conspiracy-theorist do? One idea would be to go to Dakar, Senegal in time for the February 6^th opening of the annual meeting of the World Social Forum, where “social movements, networks, NGOs and other civil society organizations opposed to neo-liberalism and a world dominated by capital or by any form of imperialism” will doubtless have plenty to say about the failings of Davos-man. 

Frankly, Cassandra does not have much time for conspiracy theories (all too often it is the “cock-up” theory that explains history), but perhaps he should not be too dismissive. Anyone reading the accounts in the “Palestine Papers” of the Guardian and Al-Jazeera, with their revelations of close cooperation between the intelligence services of Israel, America, Britain and the Palestine Authority, might well conclude that the conspiracy obsessions of the Arab world are not entirely groundless…

ONE brave prediction for 2011 was that it would see a settlement between the Palestinians and Israelis. This was “brave” in the sense that two decades of peace-talks—interrupted by wars, civil unrest and occasional acts of terror—had led more or less nowhere, but because the prediction was shared in September last year by Israel, America and the Palestinian Authority (PA) it did give cause for hope.

And now? Al-Jazeera and Britain’s Guardian newspaper have today released some devastating accounts, from the Palestinian side, of negotiations between the PA and Israel. In brief, the Palestinian negotiators offered enormous concessions, which were rejected by both Israel and the United States. One upshot is that ordinary Palestinians, already disillusioned, will feel enraged at the PA leadership (while Hamas, in Gaza, will claim justification for its own hardline stance). Another is that few will believe Israelis if they repeat their claim that they have had no “partner” in peace. And a third is that the PA leadership will desperately try to discredit the revelations as “a distortion of the truth”. The fourth consequence, of course, is that any more talk of a peace deal this year will seem simply risible.

The World in 2011 forecasts a sunny outlook for bankers in Asia. But this isn’t to say that it will be smooth sailing for the banks where they work. A scramble for financial expertise in the region is pushing up the cost of attracting and retaining talent. This is particularly true for western banks in search of growth away from their moribund home markets. 

UBS is the latest bank to bemoan the soaring cost of hiring in Asia, with an executive questioning the viability of operating in the “hottest market on the planet for talent”. Last month, Standard Chartered—based in Britain but with a large footprint in Asia—issued a trading statement that warned of cost pressures related to “increasing competition for staff”. With the reporting season now underway, expect to see similar announcements from other large banks expanding in Asia. 

That is, unless the bank is talking about Japan. As with many other industries, the boom in finance in Asia doesn’t apply to Japan, where the economy will eke out growth of little more than 1% this year. In a recent poll, Japanese business executives urged graduates to steer clear from banks when choosing a career path. 

TODAY’s dreadful suicide bombing in Tikrit, the home town of Saddam Hussein, is a reminder that Iraq in 2011 is a long way from real stability. The World in 2011 got it right with an article titled “Still nothing like normal”. This is proving true despite the belated achievement of Iraq’s politicians late last month in finally forming a coalition government, nine tortuous months after elections. Sadly, Iraq remains cursed by the sectarian animosities, particularly between the minority Sunnis and the majority Shia, that were quiescent under Saddam (a Sunni) but were provoked into bloody vitality following his fall. 

With luck, the Tikrit carnage will be an isolated example of sectarian violence, and there is one sign to encourage the optimists: Muqtada al-Sadr, the populist Shia cleric, has just returned from self-imposed exile in Iran and has called on Iraqis to give their new government a chance. That means not fighting each other. Instead, says Al-Sadr, they should resist “the occupation through armed, cultural and all kinds of resistance”.  That implies a worrying year ahead for the 50,000 or so American troops who have remained in Iraq after the official departure last summer of America’s combat troops.

CONGRATULATIONS to Barack Obama for easing travel restrictions to Cuba. But will this presidential decision be followed by a quick end to America’s embargo of Cuba, instituted in 1962 and—given the longevity of Cuba’s communist regime—a spectacular exercise in futility? Almost certainly not. Mr Obama’s decision is an executive order, enabling the White House to circumvent any opposition from Congress and essentially restoring Cuban-American travel conditions to the level they enjoyed under President Bill Clinton, before George W. Bush imposed extra restrictions. To go further and end the trade and investment embargo would need the approval of Congress—which looks very unlikely since the House of Representatives is controlled by the Republican Party and the powerful House Foreign Affairs Committee is chaired by the Cuban-born and vehemently anti-Castro Ileana Ros-Lehtinen.

Yet advocates of better Cuba-USA relations should not lose hope. As The World in 2011 points out, change is afoot in Cuba, with state encouragement this year for modest steps of private enterprise. Fidel Castro may dislike the process, but he is not immortal and long ago ceded day-to-day power to the current president, his younger brother Raúl—who, at the age of 79, is also not immortal. In other words, the post-Castro era approaches. Whatever that will mean in terms of political and economic reform, it will surely give America the perfect excuse to end the embargo.

WHAT’S in a logo? Presumably quite a lot, given the fuss surrounding the decision by Starbucks to change—rather subtly, it has to be said—the design of its iconic mermaid. My fellow blogger, Schumpeter, has waxed eloquently on the Starbucks decision, so Cassandra will merely add that he rather approves of the new logo. 

What is intriguing is the amount of time and money that goes into building “brand awareness”—and how the results sometimes disappoint. Cassandra, for example, remembers how Margaret Thatcher as prime minister criticised the new “ethnic liveries” on British Airways tailfins (“We fly the British flag,” she declared, “not these awful things”). And it is hard to find enthusiasts for the ghastly 2012 logo for next year’s London Olympics.

But we shouldn’t be too dismissive of designers and their ideas. After all, car manufacturers long ago realised that drivers no longer buy a car for its performance but are swayed by its design—and even its colour. Similarly, the shape of the bottle helps determine perfume sales. In other words, perhaps Paola Antonelli of the New York Museum of Modern Art is right: in The World in 2011 she predicts that within 25 years design will be at “centre-stage in the eternal human quest to make beauty out of necessity”.

WILL 2011 see a repeat of the food riots that in 2008 scarred more than a score of countries in the developing world, from Haiti to Egypt? The immediate omens are not good: violent rioting broke out in Algeria this month over a sharp rise in the price of sugar and cooking oil (the government has since cut the price of staple foods) and the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation is noting that food prices are now above the 2008 level, with sugar prices alone at a 30-year high.

Obviously a lot of factors are involved, from market-distorting subsidies to the disruptive impact of nature (this year’s supply of wheat, for example, is already affected by the 2010 drought in Russia and abnormally wet conditions in Canada, and the current floods in Queensland will clearly make matters worse). At the same time, demand is rising as appetites grow in emerging markets such as China and India. 

But we can still look for a silver lining. One astute blogger has spotted that the 7-Eleven chain in America has surreptitiously cut the size of its ludicrously large 44-ounce drinks container down to 40 ounces (still ludicrous, but anti-obesity campaigners must feel grateful for small things…). Moreover, a recent chart in The Economist points out that in real terms food is still cheaper than in 1980. Whether that will mean much to people wanting to riot in 2011 seems doubtful—after all, most of them were probably not even born then.

GAMBLING, by definition, is a matter of calculating the risks of a future event, and while this particular Cassandra is not the gambling type (even Las Vegas and Monte Carlo have left him feeling virtuous), it would surely be wrong to deprive our readers of the chance to speculate...The background is the recent phenomenon of birds dropping dead from the sky in places as far apart as Arkansas and Sweden, and it prompted a colleague of Cassandra (perhaps a betting man?) to pass on the following press release from Ireland’s biggest bookmaker. If betting on birds is not quite your thing, you can always take a punt on jellyfish...

PADDY POWER PRESS RELEASE

AFLOCKALYPSE NOW…..NEXT COUNTRY TO BE PECKED

-Odds on next country to report mass bird deaths-

 

(06 Jan. 11) With dead birds plummeting from the sky faster than Nick Clegg’s popularity rating, Ireland’s biggest bookmaker Paddy Power is now taking bets on which country will next fall foul of the global avian Aflockalypse. 

The UK has been installed as the bookies 2/1 favourite to report the next unexplained mass bird death with Ireland the 4/1 second favourite. With reports of 50 dead jackdaws found on city streets in Sweden, neighbouring Finland is considered a 6/1 shot by Paddy Power with both Australia and Indonesia sharing the same odds of 10/1.

In a similar vein Paddy Power are also taking bets on the next marine life to suffer a similar fate to the thousands of dead fish which have recently washed up along coastlines in New Zealand, America and Brazil. The jellyfish has been installed as the 6/4 favourite ahead of the 3/1 starfish and turtles at 8/1.

Ken Robertson from Paddy Power said “With no sign of these inexplicable mass animal deaths abating the question everyone is pondering is; where next?”

Next country to report mass bird deaths

2/1 UK; 4/1 Ireland; 6/1 Finland; 8/1 Denmark; 10/1 Australia; 10/1 Indonesia; 12/1 India; 14/1 Poland; 14/1 Latvia; 14/1 Greece; 16/1 Germany; 16/1 France; 16/1 Iceland; 20/1 Italy; 20/1 Spain

Next Marine Life To Be Affected

6/4 Jellyfish; 3/1 Starfish; 8/1 Turtles; 10/1 Squid/Octopus; 12/1 Sea Otters; 16/1 Seals; 16/1 Dolphins; 20/1 Whales; 20/1 Crocodiles

All prices remain subject to fluctuation. 

Paddy Power is Ireland’s largest bookmaker and a leading provider of gaming services in the UK, Australia and Ireland. Founded in 1988 Paddy Power is a publicly quoted company and is listed on both the Irish and London Stock Exchanges (www.paddypowerplc.com)

THE World in 2011 is not the only organisation sifting this year’s tea-leaves. The marketing and communications agency JWT (still remembered by baby-boomers under its old name, J. Walter Thompson) also bravely spots trends that may or may not happen in 2011—such as 3D printing; renting rather than buying; smartphone-linked in-car apps; and bamboo as the versatile product for everything from hair-colouring to bicycles. JWT’s predictions make for a fascinating list—which can be seen here. They may or may not come true, but doubtless there were sceptics who sneered at the future of advertising on television, just when J. Walter Thompson in 1939 produced the world’s first TV commercial…

A SIGN of things to come? The year 2011 has begun with the flow of crude oil from Russia to China through the first pipeline to link the two countries. In the bad old days of Sino-Soviet hostility, before the coming to power of Deng Xiaoping and Mikhail Gorbachev, such a commercial connection would have been unlikely. It would also have been unnecessary—but now, after two decades of more-or-less double-digit annual economic growth, China has become the world’s biggest consumer of energy, and Russia has recently become the world’s biggest producer of oil. Clearly, this is a marriage of convenience that will last…

But what will China’s roaring economy mean for the price of oil? The World in 2011 reckons that, as its government attempts to cool the economy, China’s GDP growth will slow to 8.4% (still the kind of number that makes trading-terminals buzz). On the other hand, growth in developed economies will be slow, which is why The World in 2011 predicts an average oil price for Brent crude of around $76 a barrel. Maybe so, but at the time of writing Cassandra notes that Brent crude is trading at $94.59…

IS THE potentially very bloody stand-off in Côte d’Ivoire between the incumbent president, Laurent Gbagbo, and Alassane Ouattara, who most observers feel won the November election, a bad omen for Africa? In 2011 we will surely find out.

There will be elections south of the Sahara that will include Benin, Uganda, Chad (part of which, admittedly, is in the Sahara), Madagascar, Zambia, Cameroon, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Liberia and Gabon—not to mention a referendum on January 9th on independence for Southern Sudan and the call by Zimbabwe’s autocratic Robert Mugabe for a presidential election by June.

But the most important presidential election, in terms of its regional and international impact, is scheduled for April 9th in Nigeria, Africa’s biggest economy after South Africa. President Goodluck Jonathan, is favoured to win, but will be lucky indeed (forgive the pun…) if his victory comes without outbreaks of violence and vote-rigging. The horrors of the Biafran war of secession of the late 1960s are long gone, but for all the country’s oil wealth, 80% of Nigerian workers still earn less than $2 a day; there are bloody tensions between the Muslim north and the Christian south; and, as the current issue of The Economist points out, the amnesty in the militant Delta region is fraying.

In short, 2011 looks like being a difficult year for Africa.