European politics

Charlemagne's notebook

The euro-zone crisis

A triple no

Dec 16th 2010, 19:54 by The Economist | Brussels

NEIN, nee, ei. Whatever language one chooses, the reply of fiscally austere northern European countries tonight to demands for a more ambitious response to the euro crisis is: no. As European leaders meet for their end-of-year summit in Brussels, Germany, the Netherlands and Finland are among those that think the most important action is greater economic rigour.

That means no to issuing joint eurobonds, no to making the European Union’s bail-out fund larger and no to making it more flexible (eg by using it not just as a last resort to save crisis-hit countries, but to issue short-term loans or even buy up loans from “peripheral” countries).

Instead, the leaders want the summit to finish what it started: agree the language of an amendment to the European treaties that would allow the temporary bail-out fund to be made permanent, and sketch out the details of how and when to restructure the debt of overstretched countries.

When I told the BBC World Service this morning that this was the agenda for the summit, the presenter’s reply was: “That’s boring, isn’t it?” I suspect that, similarly, markets may regard this as an inadequate response to the crisis. And if the markets think so, then it probably is inadequate, if only because the interest rates that investors demand to hold the debt of the most vulnerable countries could start to rise again – perhaps in the coming days of low trading volumes. Spain had to pay substantially higher interest this week when it sold its last batch of bonds, following the threat of a ratings downgrade from Moody’s.

A small “yes” has been forthcoming, albeit indirectly from Frankfurt, where the European Central Bank announced it would double its capital from €5.76 billion to €10.76 billion. One assumes this is a measure to strengthen its ability to continue buying bonds of distressed countries­ - the one short-term tool that is being used to calm the markets - and insure against possible losses.

It is a sign of how fast the crisis has evolved that the treaty change should already be discounted as insignificant. It was a big deal when it was announced at the last summit in October, and the wording remains contentious tonight.

A quick recap: Angela Merkel demanded, and got, agreement to amend the treaties to allow the European bail-out funds –the €440 billion ($580 billion) European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), plus a €60 billion fund run by the European Commission - be made permanent. The reason is that she feared that Germany’s constitution court would declare the EFSF in contravention of the “no bail-out” clause in the treaties.

In exchange for a permanent fund, the Germans also want a way of imposing losses on bondholders so that taxpayers do not always have to bear the risk of bailing out over-indebted states.

For some legal background, readers may want to look at this column. For details of restructuring, see this post and this article from the magazine.

The draft text proposed by Herman Van Rompuy, president of the European Council (the grouping of the EU’s leaders) for adoption by the leaders states:

The Member States whose currency is the euro may establish a stability mechanism to safeguard the stability of the euro area as a whole. The granting of financial assistance under the mechanism will be made subject to strict conditionality.

The key features are:

  • the fund would be set up by member-states, so will not be a commission instrument. It would incorporate both the EFSF and the commission’s separate fund
  • it would be set up by euro-area members, so does not involve countries such as Britain
  • the enabling paragraph is inserted into Article 136, which sets out provisions for the euro area only. It does not amend Article 125, the “no-bail” clause
  • any loans made are subject to “strict conditionality”, so are not an easy way out for countries in trouble

In tonight’s debate there have been at least three sets of objections to this language, though none seem insurmountable.

First come the Germans, who want it to specify that financial assistance provided by the fund should only a “last resort”. The word is that they have settled for an assertion that it would only be used when “indispensable” to preserve the euro-zone.

Another unhappy country is Britain, which has demanded a guarantee that bail-outs after 2013 will no longer be based on a creative interpretation of Article 122, which allows financial help to be extended to a country that is “in difficulties or is seriously threatened with severe difficulties caused by natural disasters or exceptional occurrences beyond its control”.

Britain’s objection is that Article 122 involves all 27 members of the EU, not just the euro area. Last night British officials said that David Cameron, the British prime minister, had secured a deal to the effect that Article 122 “need not and should not” be used for financial bail-outs. They did not say “will not”. In short, this is a political commitment, not a legally-binding one.

Finally, Finland is among those who would like an explicit commitment that any use of the permanent bail-out fund be made subject to unanimous decision by the euro-area members, as currently applies to the EFSF. It should be subject to any kind of majority vote.

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1-2 of 2
Dec 16th 2010 10:17 GMT

Maybe a triple no is what was needed. It strikes me that the markets and governments are engaged in a high stakes game of chicken, and up till now, in the end it was always the governments to back down. As memory serves me, the last Portuguese bond issue was oversubscribed 250%... so investors do seem to have an appetite for risk, as long as it as at the right price for them.
Freedom of the markets should not be misinterpreted as autocratic rule by the markets, which is what has been happening of late. It's time our governments stepped up.

jfcarli wrote:
Dec 18th 2010 3:43 GMT

The European Union is a very young new "country". It is amazing that thus far there have been no major problems, in fact, just the oposite, there have beens massive major common gains.

One can consider that the present (much smaller than the press intends) crisis is a pain natural from growing up.

In the long run, the EU will be strengthened and mechanisms will be created to handle such "crises" in a more non-chalant manner.

I can understand why the USA and maybe even Brittain may want the euro to flop. Wishful thinking, though.

1-2 of 2

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In this blog, our Charlemagne columnist considers the ideas and events that shape Europe, while dealing with the quirks of life in the Euro-bubble.

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