Nigeria's presidential primary

Another term beckons

To prove himself, the president needs to do more than win an election primary

IT TOOK President Goodluck Jonathan a mere decade to go from lowly official to undisputed leader of his country. He became president by default a year ago and has now clinched the nomination for presidential candidate in Nigeria’s ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) by winning 77% of the vote in a primary on January 14th. He is now the favourite to triumph at a poll due in April. Yet many still think his best quality is a knack for being in the right place at the right time.

Having long laughed at his seemingly apt name, Nigerians are far from certain what lies ahead. Africa’s most populous country and biggest energy producer, Nigeria is the continent’s giant, with 150m people, over 250 ethnic groups and at least 36 billion barrels of proven oil reserves. Yet it is also known for a level of chaos and corruption that makes other Africans raise their eyebrows at the mention of its name. A string of military and civilian leaders have embezzled the country’s oil wealth rather than investing in basic infrastructure. The chasm between rich and poor fuels militant gangs in the oil-rich southern delta and Islamist sects in the arid north.

Mr Jonathan vowed to halt decades of misrule on becoming a stopgap president last May. He was ushered in to fill a vacuum on the death of the then president, Umaru Yar’Adua, whom he had served as deputy. Just a few years earlier, he had likewise been drafted in to replace a state governor impeached on graft charges. On taking the top job, he promised to solve three of the country’s biggest problems: rigged elections, a woeful electricity supply and the militancy in the delta, whence he hails. He later added that he would run in the next elections.

Mr Jonathan has made the right noises on the state-run power sector. He has put forward a privatisation plan that aims to raise $35 billion of investment over the next decade and stipulates that private companies put tens of billions of dollars into areas such as electricity transmission. Today’s grid cannot generate enough electricity even to power a 40-watt bulb around the clock for every Nigerian—and rarely runs at full capacity. “If he can just sort out power, then that is enough for us,” said one delegate at the primaries. Foreign investors are interested but only the boldest will invest before the election.

Mr Jonathan also has much to do to clean up elections. He has appointed Attahiru Jega, a respected academic, to head the election commission. Mr Jega has focused most of his energy on compiling a voters’ register at a cost of $580m, complete with fingerprints and photographs. A bogus list containing celebrities’ names was central to rigging the last polls, in 2007. Voter registration began on January 15th and is lurching ahead, despite delays and faulty equipment.

The PDP has relied on force and fraud to win all three elections since army rule ended in 1999. A reliable voters’ list alone does not prevent foul play. Local politicians may still intimidate or pay off voters; local election-officers may still fiddle results after votes are in. “There are still gaps that the commission needs to address, but their excuse is they do not have as much time as there needs to be,” warns Clement Nwankwo, a campaigner for democracy and a consultant on electoral reform.

Mr Jonathan’s record on security is less impressive. He has just about maintained an amnesty for delta militants who were blowing up foreign oil companies’ pipelines and kidnapping their staff. The violence remains far below its peak of 2008 and production has stayed above the acceptable mark of 2m barrels a day. But new militant bosses started appearing late last year, replacing those bought off under the peace deal. Mr Jonathan’s candidacy, which breaks a PDP pact under which the presidency rotates between the mostly Muslim north and largely Christian south, could also stir up northern youths.

But the main worry is the president’s spending. With crude prices touching $100 a barrel, Nigeria’s piggy bank, the so-called “excess crude account” for surplus oil revenues, should be bursting. Instead, it has been drained from $20 billion in 2007 to $300m this year. The president handed out another $1 billion from the savings to government officials at Christmas.

“The spending has been substantial but there is nothing to show for it,” says Bismarck Rewane, a financial analyst in Lagos, Nigeria’s business capital. Few infrastructure projects warranting such spending are under way, he adds. Many conclude that the “accidental president” has had to relax controls to win over Nigeria’s political elite. Tales abound of both Mr Jonathan and Atiku Abubakar, his northern challenger, wooing delegates for months before the primaries with promises of cash and political appointments.

Mr Jonathan’s backers say he will come into his own if he gets a proper mandate in April, breaking free of those he now has to woo. Until then, his true colours remain hard to ascertain. “Once he gets in, that will be the real test of leadership,” says Mr Rewane. “Is he strong enough to tell those cronies that the party’s over?”

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