As elections loom, a line-up of leading candidates takes shape

A convert to the delights of democracy

IN LESS than a month Nigeria will hold elections that may be the most unpredictable since military rule ended in 1999. Voting for president, parliament and state governors will take place on three successive Saturdays, starting on April 2nd. Personality and the power of patronage, rather than policies, will decide the winners.

In normal circumstances Goodluck Jonathan, the candidate of the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP), would be expected to win easily. The PDP has won every presidential poll since the army bowed out. Nigerian elections favour the incumbent, who has access to the state’s vast oil revenues and can dish out cash, contracts and appointments. Mr Jonathan, a former vice-president who took over last May when Umaru Yar’Adua died, also won the financial backing last month of some big bankers and telecoms tycoons.

But Mr Jonathan, an unassuming zoologist who hails from the oil-rich southern delta, owes his rise more to luck than design. Moreover, he has flouted the PDP’s so-called zoning pact, whereby the candidacy for president rotates every two terms between the largely Christian south and the mostly Muslim north. The PDP now faces a struggle to woo the northern electorate, which makes up over half of the country’s 73.5m registered voters. Opposition candidates are thus gearing up for what they see as their first chance in a proper race. Two frugal northerners present a contrast—and hope to pose a threat—to the president.

Mr Jonathan’s main challenger is Muhammadu Buhari, a former military ruler, who is running with the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC). General Buhari is best known for launching a “war on indiscipline” after taking power in a coup in 1983 and ruling for just over 18 months. Looting politicians were jailed, drug-traffickers executed and public spending sharply cut. General Buhari even tried to have an allegedly corrupt official who had fled abroad drugged and flown back to Nigeria in a crate.

The former dictator says he is a convert to democracy. “I don’t believe [anything else] is acceptable any more to ordinary people,” he says. “Nigerians have got the message after seeing what is happening in north Africa and the Middle East.” He has chosen Tunde Bakare, a southern Pentecostal pastor and pro-democracy activist, as his running mate. General Buhari’s tough stance on graft is winning him support, especially among poor northerners. When he launched his campaign in the northern city of Kaduna this month, close to his birthplace of Daura, youths climbed on to car roofs to watch him speak.

Mr Jonathan’s other rival is Nuhu Ribadu, a northerner who used to run the country’s anti-graft agency. He is running with the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), which controls Lagos, the vibrant commercial capital. Mr Ribadu, the youngest of the three main candidates, and his running mate, Fola Adeola, a southern banker and philanthropist, are the progressive choice. “We have youth on our side and we are not ex-military people,” says Mr Adeola. “We are closer to the Nigerians who own the future.” Their main support is among Nigeria’s small middle class.

Since the PDP is so dominant, Mr Jonathan is still the favourite to win. Some predict a run-off against General Buhari. But the ruling party faces a tougher battle to keep control of the 27 states it runs out of Nigeria’s total of 36. Some northern ones could fall to General Buhari’s CPC, while Mr Ribadu’s ACN is gaining ground in the south-west around Lagos. Mr Jonathan will need the backing of these powerful governors if he is to push through reforms during his tenure. Indeed, he may find it easier to win than to rule.