Asia
Asia view
Japan's government
Mixed messages
Jan 14th 2011, 11:54 by H.T. and T.Y. | TOKYO
IDEALLY Naoto Kan, Japan’s prime minister, would have held on to his chief cabinet secretary, Yoshito Sengoku, whose demise we saw coming last month. But there is nothing ideal about Japanese politics. On January 14th Mr Sengoku was dumped after opposition parties and internal dissenters within Mr Kan’s ruling Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) showed how good they are at poisoning politics by personalising it. Mr Kan, meanwhile, showed once again how easy he is to push around.
There is something positive in the resulting cabinet reshuffle. But first the worrying news. The veteran Mr Sengoku will be replaced by Yukio Edano, 46. Although he is close to Mr Kan, his relative inexperience for the toughest job in Japanese politics (effectively, he has to be both spokesman and sand-bag for the prime minister) may make it hard for him to co-ordinate with a government that desperately needs to send a common, reform-minded message. On the plus side, however, he will be supported by Hirohisa Fujii, an urbane 78-year-old former finance minister.
The other worrying element is that the man Mr Kan has appointed to spearhead fiscal reform, Kaoru Yosano, 72, may exacerbate the divisions within the ruling party. An ex-finance minister and former stalwart of the opposition Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), he published a book last year called “The DPJ Destroys Japan’s Economy” that did not endear him to the party’s populist wing. Nor will Mr Yosano necessarily heal rifts with the opposition. He was unable to convince the right-wing party that he co-founded last year to join the ruling coalition. He stands even less chance of winning over his resentful former colleagues in the LDP.
The good news is that Mr Yosano’s appointment reveals that a sense of mission is emerging within Mr Kan’s team—a point Mr Kan made much of at the news conference he held to announce the change. Mr Yosano is arguably Japan’s best-known fiscal hawk, and a shrewd political operator, which suggests the government will not shy away from raising the consumption tax. But first it aims to package the issue in terms of the urgent need to reform the social-security system, that it might to cope with the aging population. That could be a good way of appealing to the public at large, over the heads of recalcitrant politicians.
Mr Kan also rejigged the economics team to bring free-traders such as Koichiro Gemba and Banri Kaieda to the helm of his push to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership. There is an irony there: Mr Kaieda’s old job was given to Mr Yosano, the man Mr Kaieda beat in the 2009 general election. But that will soon be forgotten by everyone except Mr Kaieda.
Fiscal reform, rebuilding the social-security system and spurring free trade are vital policy initiatives for Japan as its society ages and the domestic market shrinks. It is a measure of the emerging political maturity of the Kan administration that it has now established them as priorities. Even more immediately, Mr Kan needs to pass the budget for next fiscal year. He may be hoping that, having obtained the sacrifice of Mr Sengoku, the opposition will become co-operative. That is probably wishful thinking. If the LDP continue to stand in his way, Mr Kan will have only one weapon left—public opinion. But to win that, he needs to stand up more firmly to his personality-obsessed opponents.
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Japan and California would appear to have nothing in common. Japan is geriatric, moribund, and united. California is youthful, innovative, and fragmented. 70 years ago a war was fought because California's oil exports to Japan were cut off. Japan exchanges unknown look-alike "leaders" at the drop of a pin, forced to resign in disgrace if they attempt to change anything. California picks high-profile celebrities who promise change at every turn.
Nonetheless, despite having absolutely nothing in common in terms of political culture, there is one striking similarity between Japan and California. Both have allegedly been at the brink of financial catastrophe for the past several years, neither has done anything of any consequence towards solving their problems, and yet both of them trundle along just fine. For how many years can a crisis be immanent before we have to admit it really isn't such a crisis? Despite all the dire warnings, backed up by good hard numbers, Japan and California seem to muddle through, whether run by do-nothing salarymen or do-nothing celebrities.
One surefire way for Naoto Kan to bolster his waning popularity is by getting rid of the US military bases in Okinowa. But has he the spine to take such bold action?? I have my serious doubts.
My sattirical response to both D.Sherman and Nirvana-bound got somehow blocked by the Spam comment filter. I don't know what the offensive phrase was, but I stopped bothering to modify the comment and rewrote it below:
@D.sherman
No Japanese prime minister will ever write swear words to the member of their congress, the way your ex-governor did to one of his (ie. write "**** you" in Acrostics).
@Nirvana-bound
Kicking the Yanks out of Okinawa is now popular only in Okinawa and mainland China, so won't help a Japanese prime minister get re-elected.
Under the façade of democratic process for domestic policies, it’s becoming crystal clear that it’s the US who calls the shot over Japan on its overall foreign affairs, international trades and defense matters.
Since 2006 and from Messrs. Shinzo Abe, Fukuda, Aso, to Yukio Hatoyama to Mr. Kan now, the finger prints are all over these appointments and their decommissioning.
It can not be denied that the US occupation has done great to the post WW2 Japanese defense posture and its economical preeminence in the world, but at what price?
If Japanese people will not bring themselves to be repentant and to face squarely with the horrible war crimes and atrocities of Japs imperialism, as post WW2 German so courageously did, there is little chance or hope for Japan to ever recover to its former respected self, no matter who is the Prime Minister, and no matter what.
It’ time for Japan to make use of its unique relationship with the US (and to some extent with China and both Koreas) to act as conduit for better overall relations of Japan, Koreas, the US and China, instead of acting foolhardily as some proxy against China, as it appears to be doing now.
Otherwise, Japan would miss the boat of “co-prosperity” when Sino-American relations are fusing good to the point that Japan comes to matter no more.
@Fleetfella
calling people bad names the way you did shows to readers that you are among the lowest class in human morality.
D. Sherman, while California's non-political culture is very innovative, our political culture strongly resists change, just like Japan's does.
Raise taxes? No, never!
Cut spending? No, never!
Admit that this results in a problem? No, never!
Lots of innovative ways have been found to conceal the fact that the books don't balance. Lots of innovative excuses for why any particular facet of the state's finances cannot be changed (no matter how much out of balance the budget is).
So I'm not sure it is accurate to say that Japan and California have nothing in common. A political culture in denial seems to be a common thread.