Asia

Asia view

After the earthquake

The tension mounts

Mar 13th 2011, 13:36 by H.T. and K.N.C. | TOKYO

THE risk of a nuclear accident at a huge power plant in disaster-strewn north-eastern Japan has risen for a second day on March 13th. This time it involves a type of fuel known as Mox (mixed-oxide) that is considered highly experimental. The government, which is under huge pressure to deal with the tragedy created by Friday’s earthquake, is also struggling to prevent panic over the potential meltdown of a second nuclear reactor. With what looked like tears in his eyes, Naoto Kan, the prime minister, said today that Japan was facing its worst crisis since the second world war and he urged its citizens to pull together.

As if that were not enough, Japan’s seismologists say there is a high risk of more big aftershocks in the coming days. In the areas worst hit by the quake, hundreds of thousands of people have been evacuated from their homes, and food and blankets are scarce.

It is currently estimated that at least 2,000 are dead and missing after Friday’s earthquake unleashed a vicious tsunami that swept Japan’s northern Pacific coast. But that figure does not take into account 10,000 who the government acknowledged on March 13th are unaccounted for in one coastal area of Miyagi prefecture, called Minamisanriku. Aerial shots from television crews show a large community that existed there has now virtually disappeared under tidal water. Elsewhere in Miyagi and Iwate prefecture, hundreds more bodies have been dumped by the tsunami, news reports say, and some 450,000 people have been made homeless.

Mr Kan almost doubled the number of Special Defence Force troops he had ordered to the area, to 100,000. But relief efforts were hampered by destroyed roads and bridges, waterlogged airports and other disrupted lines of communication. An American aircraft carrier and emergency services from other countries joined the rescue effort, which underscores how bad the situation must be. The assumed death toll, which has already doubled in 24 hours, may rise much further yet. It would not be a surprise if it exceeds the 6,500 or so killed in the 1995 Kobe earthquake.

However hard it is to come to grips with the enormous devastation, another crisis is playing out in real time: the risk of a Three-Mile-Island-style radiation leakage at a nuclear-power plant in Fukushima prefecture, 250 miles north of Tokyo. Overnight, the cooling system at the third reactor at the Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant failed, and on March 13th Kyodo news agency cited the plant’s operator, the Tokyo Electric Power Company (Tepco), as saying that three metres of a Mox nuclear-fuel rod had been left above the water level. That raises the risk of a meltdown of the core reactor, which could lead to a nuclear catastrophe. Disconcertingly, Japanese anti-nuclear campaigners have fiercely opposed the introduction into Japan of Mox fuel, which is a mixture of plutonium oxide and uranium oxide, arguing, among other things, that plutonium is more unsafe than enriched uranium. The fuel was first used in the Fukushima plant last year. Five other reactors spread over two Fukushima plants have also experienced trouble with their cooling systems, and two (including the Mox one) have been doused with water—and possibly permanently crippled—to prevent overheating. 

Yukio Edano, the government’s chief spokesman, said that it was possible the core reactor had been “deformed” by its exposure above water, but he denied that it was a meltdown. However, he said there were further complications. It was not clear whether the water was rising to cool the reactor, despite an injection of sea water. Pressure is also building up within the reactor, but the release valve is malfunctioning, he said. Given the potential build-up of hydrogen, he issued a warning that there could be another explosion of the type that destroyed the outer building of the plant’s first reactor on March 12th. But he said there was no danger to the thick, steel-and-reinforced-concrete container that surrounds the reactor, and he is downplaying the risk of a dangerous leak of radiation.

Mr Edano, who like Mr Kan is dressed in blue overalls to give the uniform-loving Japanese a sense of workmanship, is deftly trying to reduce the risk of panic around the country. His staff are telling foreign correspondents to reassure foreigners living in Japan that there is no need to flee Tokyo (the American ambassador has put out a similar message). The task is made harder by imprecise information on the levels of radiation that have leaked out and the dangers to the several dozen people near the Fukushima power plant who have so far been diagnosed as suffering from radiation.

Reportedly, levels of radiation have temporarily exceeded 1,000 microsieverts, which is twice the legal upper limit; but in many cases they have been little worse than an X-ray. The government insists the radiation comes from its controlled release of pressure from the reactor container vessels, and is not dangerous to humans. It rejects assertion that the leaks are out of control. However, there is a general mistrust among many Japanese about the authorities’ willingness to admit to a serious radiation problem if it were to occur. It might, of course, accidentally play down the risk in its efforts to avoid panic. What’s more, Tepco, which provides most of the information on its Fukushima plant, has obfuscated shockingly in the past. Its reputation is unlikely to be burnished by the fact that residents of greater Tokyo and elsewhere, as well as businesses, were told to brace for extended power cuts in coming days. The government says power supply for such areas has fallen by a quarter, from 41 gigawatts to 31 gigawatts, because of the quake-induced disruption.

On top of those concerns, the Meteorological Agency, which on March 13th upgraded its assessment of the size of Friday’s earthquake from 8.8 to 9.0, has also warned than in the next three days, there is a 70% chance of another big quake. The huge movement of sub-sea earth at 2.46pm on Friday led to a quake at three different epicentres, along a 500km stretch of sea. This was why the quakes were felt so broadly, and why there have been such frequent aftershocks.

Many businesses have decided to close, in part because of disrupted supply chains, but also because of the uncertainty over access to power. Toyota, Nissan, Honda and Suzuki will idle some or all factories. But the north-east is not Japan's industrial heartland, and factories in places like Kyoto, the centre of the country's high-end technology components, have not said they plan to close on Monday. Meanwhile, in a bid to shore up the financial system and ensure suitable liquidity, the Bank of Japan provided ¥55 billion in cash to 13 banks over the weekend, in case customers line up to get money on Monday morning. Though the economic cost of the crisis is hard to see—in large part because of uncertainty about the consequences of the overheating nuclear reactors—estimates place it above the ¥10 trillion (around $120 billion) damage of the Kobe earthquake in 1995.

Perhaps bracing for further weeks of uncertainty, Tokyo residents and others have been stocking up on petrol and provisions. Pot noodles are gone from the supermarket shelves, as are bread and tins of tuna. In a nation with the best lavatories in the world, another coveted item is the damp face towel, which apparently can be used as toilet tissue if water supply is interrupted for long periods. Such are the unsubstantiated rumours flying around Tokyo, anyway. 

Photo credit: EPA

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jackiechen666 wrote:
Mar 13th 2011 2:51 GMT

The earthquake took away many people's lives,but the futher impact of it was enormous.It not only damaged the buildings,but also the Japan's economy.It is harder for Japan's economy to recover from the crisis.Also there are many other factors threating the safety of people,the government should do more ,not waiting,give the citizens hope!

Anjin-San wrote:
Mar 13th 2011 3:10 GMT

For the first time in its 65 year history, TEPCO will institute a rotating blackout tomorrow. The entire service area of TEPCO, with the exception of about 15 Wards in Tokyo Metropolis, are split into 5 zones, each with 1 or 2 periods of 3.5-hour blackouts, starting from 06:20 and finishing at 22:00 The full extent of blackout will depend on the actual power demand and supply, and stability of local network, so the order of blackout may be swapped between zones, and some areas may have their zone changed at the last minutes.

tell truth wrote:
Mar 13th 2011 3:11 GMT

we all wish good luck to Japan.

Mar 13th 2011 3:39 GMT

Japan is a great country. It will not be battered to death by a earthquake or leakage of nuclear material.

Mar 13th 2011 3:58 GMT

@doublehelix

Good idea: Saying that the Japanese should use this tragedy as opportunity for national renewal.

Bad Idea: making a tirade about all the ways in which you find those victims' culture, recreation, and personal outlook objectionable.

If Hello Kitty phones, comic books, and politeness are really the cause of Japan's systemic economic problems, I'd love to see the link. Unfortunately, I suspect that they have little to do with it and you were just taking the opportunity to inform the rest of us everything you don't like about Japan.

Given the circumstances, that seems in bad taste.

Michael Dunne wrote:
Mar 13th 2011 4:22 GMT

Any idea about whether they have been able to set up or start erecting refugee tent cities?

There is the old Camp Sendai there that is now a Jietai base. It seems to be quite a large facility - My father was based there in the 1950s, and we visited it six years ago. Would think they would try to set up some sort of aid/temprorary housing there unless the place got wrecked too.

Also, any indication of laying of temporary water pipelines, setting up of mobile generators, clearing of key arteries of traffic (just plow the debris aside), or other work of the sorts usually performed by an army corp of engineers/emergency aid teams?

Mar 13th 2011 4:52 GMT

These power companies are running these plants that should have been decommissioned 10 years ago or more to the breaking point for profit...the fools put the entire nation at risk

Mar 13th 2011 5:04 GMT

The real issue seems to be what will happen when the Japanese money is withdrawn from foreign (in particular US) bond and equity markets to deal with the aftermath of the quake. How will this influence currency markets (EUR/USD) and US interest rates?

afeconview wrote:
Mar 13th 2011 5:08 GMT

My spouse and I were just talking about how terrible this whole scenario is. What can we say....JUST CHILLING!

We should all take a lesson from what we are witnessing here; nuclear power may seem an inexpensive alternative for energy on the front end, but if anything goes wrong, we all end up paying a terrible price at the end.

Coolfonz wrote:
Mar 13th 2011 5:11 GMT

Obviously there should be no state aid or help as the invisible hand of the market will make everything perfect. After all it worked in New Orleans.

vsaltykov wrote:
Mar 13th 2011 5:21 GMT

would be pretty easy if you had lots of cloth pipes, like firefighters use

Fooli Cat wrote:
Mar 13th 2011 5:24 GMT

Coolfonz and Doublehelix,

Save it for later. Glibb humor and negative assessments are only appropriate right now if it serves a positive purpose. You two should be smacked! Kidding. But c'mon, show a little sensitivity.

Michael Dunne,

I whole-heartedly agree with your pro-active thinking but they can't simply plough debris when there are so many missing people and possible bodies to be searched out and recovered.

Normally I'm a rather large misanthrope. Most people are more or less a nuisance to me. But now I find myself almost choked and saddended, even frustrated with not having opportunity to help. One (exaggerated, I hope) headline reads possibly 10,000 dead and there is still the growing threat of radioactive contamination. I'm having trouble getting my head wrapped around it all.

Mar 13th 2011 5:35 GMT

What I wonder about are the long term implications surrounding Japan's relationships with it's immediate neighbors. Will this tragedy start a new era of more cordial relations between China and the land of the rising sun, or will this merely create another power vacuum to be filled by Japan's neighbors?

As for Japan's ability to rebuild, I think they will be fine. They have been fire bombed, nukes, and then occupied only to build shining cities over the carcasses of the destroyed ones. Hello Kitty and "decadent" technology are merely diversions, when they have to get to work I am sure the Japanese will answer the call. They aren't Caprica after all.

cybergypsy wrote:
Mar 13th 2011 6:00 GMT

This is a terrible tragedy. What bothers me is the inconsistencies in the reporting on the nuclear plant problems. CNN and other live television reports, which include experts from the UK, are saying that this is "no Chernobyl" and the we are many hours past the dangers levels of that accident, the amount of radation released is minor, the explosion was the explosion of a pump, and other reports to suggest the Japanese are handling the situation well and tragedy is being prevented. The Economist and the NY Times on the other hand continue to have terrifying headlines on disaster at these nuclear plants with the first view paragraphs suggesting dire circumstances, although if you read to the bottom of the story, you find pretty much the same thing CNN is reporting - it could be terrible but the Japanese are taking care of the problems and it isnt that bad.

People need accurate information. They do not need to hear terrifying speculation or rumors or possible scenarios that never happened. I cannot really tell which news reports are the most accurate and that bothers me. It is not appropiate for news outlets to scare people with inaccurate reports, on the other hand, it is hard to know if the reports saying the danger is not that great are accurate either. Please Economist, now is not the time to push a political agenda. It is the time to report absolutely accurately and to constantly update articles with new information. If the danger at the nuclear plants in Japan are not too bad, please state that clearly. If the danger is high and there is reason your reports conflict with others, please state why based on facts only, not unfounded fears, speculation, or a political agenda against nuclear power.

Duganinja wrote:
Mar 13th 2011 7:31 GMT

@doublehelix Check facts please.

A survey by the Nikkei Marketing Journal in 2007 found that the number of Japanese youth saving money “to prepare for the future” doubled between 2000 and 2007. Another survey found that half of the Japanese people in their 20s are worried about their future.

The fact that most under 30 Japanese youths still live with their parents isn't nihilism. It's a cultural tendency towards later marriage, higher education plans and a lackluster job market. Ask the average teenager if they study too hard or work hard enough and your nihilism argument loses luster. Those same hello kitty dolls and Nintendo craving youths are the same that support Rodeo Drive, most electronics companies and the fashion industry and keep the global economy moving.

Also, if most of the other "cultures" had an iota of the "cutesy and polite" attitude that you rail against, there wouldn't be a place for angry, vilified comments on the web.

Last Boss wrote:
Mar 13th 2011 7:35 GMT

@cybergypsy:

I fully agree with what you wrote in your comment.

However, actually I fear that really 'accurate information' is more or less unavailable. Not only because of the usual reluctance of Japanese officials - but merely due to the fact that what happened there was basically an unprecedented catastrophe, and probably even the people working at the nuclear power plants cannot say what effect their efforts currently have. So all that is left for the media is rely on the opinion of specialists regarding that matter - but even a specialist can only speculate in a situation like this.

As for the headlines... well, most newspaper know that 'disaster' sells. Just guess what headline on the internet-portal of a newspaper would get more clicks:
a) "Japanese engineers fight to get nuclear reactor under control"
b) "Nuclear disaster imminent! 10000 already dead - and that's just the beginning".
(of course the article under both headlines is more or less the same, since both rely on the same speculations)
See what I mean? It's cynical - but that's the way media work this way.

What I consider absolutely disgusting however are the reactions of some politicians - especially here in Germany - who actually seem to be celebrating the tragedy that hit Japan because it will give them a serious push in the upcoming election. Such a thing just makes me wanna vomit!

OldSpencer wrote:
Mar 13th 2011 8:14 GMT

"The tension mounts "

Trashy headline from a trashy publication. I wonder how did the brits get a reputation as 'gentlemen' (firebombing civilians maybe?)

Mar 13th 2011 8:32 GMT

I would like to commend the workers at these nuclear plants for their steadfast commitment to controlling unstable and powerful forces in conditions so far out of the design parameters as to seem futile. There is no small risk to their health and lives, and they are fully aware of the risks they are taking. Sportsmen and most soldiers are not heroes - these workers define heroism.

Michael Dunne wrote:
Mar 13th 2011 8:48 GMT

Fooli Cat,

plowing was probably a poor choice of words. Agree there are tons of people missing that the authorities need to be sensitive to.

However, there are probably certain avenues of traffic that should be given priority for clearance.

I assume not all areas can be easily serviced by helicopters (even if the US military are able to boost the inventory), and the impacted areas cover a pretty broad spanse of terrain. I bet there are some north/south roads that would require clearing to facilitate logistics, emergency efforts as well as evacuations.

By clearance, this would probably entail dedicating resources (dogs, emergency workers) to proceed along a traffic artery, ensure no missing are at risk, while heavy equipment plod behind moving materials aside....

Not an expert in this; just thinking out loud.

Equal world wrote:
Mar 13th 2011 8:52 GMT

This is a heart burning and traumatic event and my pity lies wit the family and friends of those affected and to the Japanese people as a whole. The force of mother nature is strong and deadly but with courage and strength i know the great citizens of this great and prosperous nation will overcome this tragic event.

All these brings fears feeling about partying and holidaying in beaches and sea resorts or living permanently in cities close to sea. But how far can we be save if anywhere in the world, just compare it to the 7.9 magnitude earthquake that devastated Sichuan region in china in 2008, despite this region being far away from the sea, never were human lives save from destruction. So, I believe governments should spend more on research to detect signs and give warnings well on time before such events unfold. This is better value for money - protecting the planet earth first before spending billions to explore space where no one lives in.

1-20 of 51

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On this blog our correspondents across Asia survey its many fast-changing parts, from Afghanistan to the Pacific islands, stopping at all points in between to take in politics, business, pan-Asian themes and local arcana.

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