British politics

Bagehot's notebook

David Cameron in the Gulf

David Cameron defends the defence industry

Feb 22nd 2011, 14:08 by Bagehot

DAVID CAMERON woke this morning in the surreal surroundings of the Bayan Palace complex in Kuwait—a city within a city with its own (heavily guarded) motorway exit, well-irrigated gardens filled with lawns and topiary and vast government guesthouses inside which each corridor leads to yet another drawing room or dining room groaning with a full buffet of food, seemingly waiting for peckish VIPs at any hour of the day and night.

February in Kuwait offers crisp, sunlit mornings. The birds are tweeting and the coffee at the palace is good. Alas, Bagehot (who is travelling with the British prime minister) suspects that Mr Cameron's mood may have been soured by the headlines from London. Several newspapers harrumphed at him for travelling with a business delegation that includes executives from eight defence and aerospace companies. This, it was argued, amounted to shameful hypocrisy given that Mr Cameron has been loudly calling for Arab governments to pay heed to the aspirations of their peoples for "basic rights" including free speech, freedom of association, the rule of law and the right to peaceful protest. The charge is that Mr Cameron cannot reasonably say that governments such as Libya and Bahrain must refrain from violent repression, while seeking to sell Arab governments guns.

This is a pretty silly argument, and Mr Cameron duly gave it a whacking a few moments ago at a press conference with the Kuwaiti prime minister (Kuwait's first ever prime ministerial press conference, we were proudly told). Yes, I have executives from firms such as British Aerospace and Thales with me, he told British and Kuwaiti reporters gathered in the Emir's official tent (size of a submarine pen, oil paintings on the walls, big chandeliers). But are you seriously saying that countries are not allowed to defend themselves, or if they are allowed to, that they may only defend themselves with arms they make themselves? This, Mr Cameron went on, warming to his theme, was a particularly odd argument in a country like Kuwait, a small ally that was invaded by a bullying neighbour just two decades ago, prompting a military liberation which cost the lives of 47 British servicemen, among many other victims.

In general terms, Mr Cameron is surely right, though his appeal to the particular case of Kuwait was also a giveaway. There is a world of difference between selling arms to a responsible ally and empowering a thuggish regime that cannot be trusted not to use them for repression. Even Mr Cameron admits that he has been struggling to find out what is going on in Libya, watching the latest images from Tripoli and Benghazi with horror. If there were confirmed reports of British weapons being used against Libyan civilians, from arms deals signed since Britain took the political decision, under the previous Labour government, to embrace Muammar Qaddafi, well, then Britain would have a political problem on its hands.

And yet. If Mr Cameron's intended message on this Gulf trip is not undermined by the arms makers riding up front in our chartered airliner, that does not mean that his intended message actually makes sense. Mr Cameron is here in the Arab world to set out the latest plank of what he calls his "liberal conservative" view of foreign policy. It is a sort of third way of foreign policy, if you will. It essentially splits the difference between what the prime minister calls the "naive neoconservative view" that democracy can be dropped from an airplane at 40,000 feet (take that George Bush and Tony Blair), and the "calculating" view that "Arabs or Muslims can't do democracy" (take that, generations of Foreign Office Arabists, cosying up to Sandhurst-educated sheikhs and offering to help them sort out their rivals with the help of some tanned Englishmen in Land Rovers with no names and no cap badges).

His formal thesis was set out in a speech to the Kuwaiti parliament. In what seemed to be a direct swipe at the ultra-realists of the Camel Corps (as Foreign Office Arabists are traditionally known), he said it "borders on racism" to say that Arabs or Muslims cannot cope with democracy. He went on:

For decades, some have argued that stability required highly controlling regimes, and that reform and openness would put that stability at risk.  So, the argument went, countries like Britain faced a choice between our interests and our values.  And to be honest, we should acknowledge that sometimes we have made such calculations in the past. But I say that is a false choice. 

As recent events have confirmed, denying people their basic rights does not preserve stability, rather the reverse. Our interests lie in upholding our values – in insisting on the right to peaceful protest, in freedom of speech and the internet, in freedom of assembly and the rule of law. But these are not just our values, but the entitlement of people everywhere; of people in Tahrir Square as much as Trafalgar Square.

So whenever and wherever violence is used against peaceful demonstrators, we must not hesitate to condemn it. The whole world has been shocked in the last few days by the appalling violence which the authorities in Libya have unleashed on their own people.

Violence is not the answer to people’s legitimate aspirations.  Using force cannot resolve grievances, only multiply and deepen them. We condemned the violence in Bahrain, and welcome the fact that the military has now been withdrawn from the streets and His Royal Highness the Crown Prince has embarked on a broad national dialogue.

If people’s hunger for a job and a voice are denied there is a real risk that the frustration and powerlessness people feel and the resulting lack of connection with the way their country is run: can open the way to them being cut off from society or worse drawn to more violent and extremist responses. That’s a problem for the Arab world but it’s a problem for the rest of the world too.  

In a direct swipe at naive neoconservatives, Mr Cameron also said:

...democracy is a process not an event. And important though elections are, participatory government is about much more than the simple act of voting. Democracy is the work of patient craftsmanship it has to be built from the grassroots up. The building blocks have to be laid like the independence of the judiciary, the rights of individuals, free media and association, and a proper place in society for the army. It can’t be done overnight. And if you want evidence of that just look at the history of Britain, a constitutional monarchy which has evolved through time, and where so many of our rights under our laws predate our right to vote by 700 years.  My second belief is this. Political and economic reform is vital but it has to be pursued with Al E’htiram with respect for the different cultures, histories and traditions of each nation. We in the West have no business trying to impose our particular local model

If you want the short version, I think it can be boiled down the prime minister's repeated use of the phrase "false choice". In Egypt yesterday and Kuwait today, he has told us that the supposed trade-off between stability and freedom is a false choice.

And this is where I think his strategy does not quite hang together. My problem is that his thesis is so dependent on events, or rather the events that he chooses to highlight. He told the Kuwaiti audience:

History is sweeping through your neighbourhood. Not as a result of force and violence, but by people seeking their rights, and in the vast majority of cases doing so peacefully and bravely. Across the Arab World, aspirations are stirring which have lain dormant.

They can take inspiration from other peaceful movements for change, such as the Velvet revolutions in Central and Eastern Europe, the civil rights struggle in America, or the peaceful transition to democracy in Muslim countries like Indonesia.

It is too early to say how things will turn out.  Too often, in the past, there has been disappointment. But there are some grounds for cautious optimism. Optimism, because it is the people – especially the young people – who are speaking up. It is they who are choosing to write their history – and doing so for the most part peacefully and with dignity. It is they who are showing that there is more to politics in this region than the false choice sometimes presented between repression and extremism

First, this is a pretty selective account of what is going on. There is plenty of force and violence going on in Libya, and it would be making still more of an impact if there were foreign reporters there to see and film it.

Secondly, Mr Cameron is deliberately conflating the articulate young protestors he met from the Tahrir Square movement with the entire range of opposition forces in the Arab world. But even in his own telling, there is a world of difference between Twitter-feeding students in Cairo, and frustrated millions of Arabs angry at problems that are not going to be solved overnight. In his words:

One of the most remarkable things about the historic events we’ve seen in Egypt and Tunisia in these past weeks is that it is not an ideological or extremist movement but rather, a movement of the people – an expression of aspiration predominantly from a new generation hungry for political and economic freedoms. 

A British businessman who had been in the square in Cairo during the demonstrations told me how when the extremists turned up and tried to claim the movement as theirs they were shouted down and disowned.

This movement belongs to the frustrated Tunisian fruit seller who can’t take his product to market. And to the students in Cairo who can’t get a fair start, and the millions of Egyptians who live on $2 a day. In short, it belongs to the people who want to make something of their lives, and to have a voice. It belongs to a new generation for whom technology – the internet and social media – is a powerful tool in the hands of citizens, not a means of repression. It belongs to the people who’ve had enough of corruption, of having to make do with what they’re given, of having to settle for second best.

This is optimism posing as a strategy. There is a difference between saying something being a false choice, and it being a false choice. Mr Cameron's assertion that stability and freedom are not in opposition cannot protect him from the possibility that, depending on events, his government may yet be forced to choose between them.

If stability wobbles, or Islamists loom, Britain will also have to choose between its interests and the values that Mr Cameron says he cherishes. And he cannot give himself an escape route by watering those values down, and defining them so broadly that he can call even a semi-free petro-monarchy like Kuwait a "democracy". His strategy of triangulation is dependent on events working out the way he hopes. To go further, I am not sure Mr Cameron is steering a course mid-way between Camel Corps calculation and naive neo-conservativism. I think Mr Cameron is offering two strategies dressed up as one.

If events go well, and greater freedom continues to be compatible with stability in important countries such as Egypt, then he is actually offering something akin to low-ambition neoconservativism: a belief that slow, patient steps on a journey towards democracy will keep the lid from blowing off the Arab street.

And if events go badly? Well, his speech was full of references to trade and economic interests, and included this bit, which is as weasel-like as anything penned by the most shimmeringly-smooth Foreign Office realist:

It is not for me, or for governments outside the region, to pontificate about how each country meets the aspirations of its people. It is not for us to tell you how to do it, or precisely what shape your future should take. There is no single formula for success, and there are many ways to ensure greater, popular participation in Government

In short, I think if things go badly and Britain has to choose between interests and values, Mr Cameron is a man with a pretty clear sense of Britain's national interests.

A new foreign policy vision? No. A fair-weather, watered-down version of neoconservativism? More or less. Do I think that is inherently foolish as a starting point? I don't think I do. But I do think it is a bet on events, rather than a strategy.

This post is the second in a series covering Mr Cameron's trip to the Middle East. You can read the first post, from Egypt, here. The third post, from Qatar, is here.

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1-5 of 5
Feb 22nd 2011 3:28 GMT

"Al E’htiram"? Which is?

Feb 22nd 2011 3:34 GMT

Good stuff.

Mr Obama is also fond of the "false choice": in his case, too, it seems to be mere wishful thinking dressed up as profound analysis.

willstewart wrote:
Feb 22nd 2011 5:00 GMT

The tension in such choices is interesting. But can one more realistically make the choice one between short-term stability, with an eventual long-term crash, and continuous but relatively mild turmoil? (?= democracy).

In this case one might extend the choice to include financial regulation..

Cutters wrote:
Feb 22nd 2011 5:29 GMT

Better than your last report, still don't think you are getting where you are and what is going on around you. There is a western leader, that doesn't need to say 'who' he represents, as everyone one knows what organisations and nations stand behind the UK, visiting the region during a period of change.

"There is no single formula for success, and there are many ways to ensure greater, popular participation in Government."

This pretty much spells out the objective that this visit is pushing for.

The Last Conformist: I think it is the native word for respect, or similar to respect.

Cutters wrote:
Feb 22nd 2011 6:37 GMT

"If there were confirmed reports of British weapons being used against Libyan civilians, from arms deals signed since Britain took the political decision, under the previous Labour government, to embrace Muammar Qaddafi, well, then Britain would have a political problem on its hands."

So Israel killing brutalising civilians, particularly those in a country that it is illegally occupying, using weapon from the USA, is no problem at all... is that what you are saying Bagehot?

1-5 of 5

About Bagehot's notebook

In this blog, our Bagehot columnist surveys the politics of Britain, British life and Britain's place in the world.

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