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  • February 01, 2011
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Could A Tunisian-Style Revolt Happen Elsewhere?

A police officer faces protesters during a demonstration against the Constitutional Democratic Rally - RCD, the party of deposed President Ben Ali, in the center of Tunis, 18 Jan 2011
Photo: AP

A police officer faces protesters during a demonstration against the Constitutional Democratic Rally - RCD, the party of deposed President Ben Ali, in the center of Tunis, 18 Jan 2011

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Years of anger and dissatisfaction in Tunisia over corruption, joblessness and other economic woes have erupted recently. What was unimaginable two months ago has taken place—Tunisia’s government shattered. Now, analysts are looking at other regimes in the region for signs of similar unrest. They do not have to look far. There have been self-immolations by protestors in Egypt, Algeria and Mauritania. Jordanians have demonstrated against high food prices. At an economic summit in Egypt, Arab League Chief Amr Moussa warned Wednesday that “the Arab soul is broken by poverty, unemployment and the general recession.”

Center for Nonproliferation Studies
Nabil Fahmy, former Egyptian ambassador to the U.S.

Nabil Fahmy, Dean of the American University in Cairo’s School of Global Affairs and Public Policy and a former Egyptian Ambassador to the United States, speaks with VOA's Cecily Hilleary.

Hilleary: Ambassador Fahmy, a third man has set himself on fire in Egypt.  Are we seeing the beginning of a Tunisian style revolt in your country?

Fahmy: No, I don’t think so. I think what you’re seeing is a reflection of the region as a whole following what happened in Tunisia with tremendous interest. They were also quite surprised by how it unfolded in terms of the violence that occurred, the very large number of casualties and then by how quickly the Tunisian president left the country.

VOA's Cecily Hilleary speaks with Amb. Nabil Fahmy of American University in Cairo:

There’s also a bit of a “copycat” effect. In other words, people feel frustration—and obviously the people have emulated the process because of their frustrations and fears, concerns, feeling that this was the way to attract attention. I think it is a bit superficial to say what happens here can happen similarly in other countries.

Having said all that, it is alarming, yes. It is alarming to see what happened in Tunisia in terms of the violence between the government and the people. It is alarming to see people anywhere, even in my own country, feel obliged to put themselves on fire.  That reflects that some people feel very frustrated.

Now, again, whether this is simply a “copycat” situation or a reflection of a greater problem, I think it’s too early to say.  But I don’t really believe that this is something that will be repeated in a rapid fashion from one country to another.

But I think frankly, if I may say, that the Arab countries generally have to seize this occasion to learn the lessons from what happened in Tunisia, to look at their problems and how quickly and how effectively they are responsive to the concerns of their people. They have to seize the occasion to have a better relationship, a more symbiotic relationship between the executive organs and public opinion. And I say this across the board in the Arab world. I’m not talking about any country in particular.

Hilleary: Are we seeing that kind of examination of conscience in Egypt?

Fahmy: Well, again, my first answer is that it’s too early to tell. You can’t make a judgment on what’s happened over a few days since the Tunisian situation, particularly when you have an Arab summit now in Sharm el Sheikh on economic issues. Everybody’s busy with that.

But let me take you back a step before that. I actually think at the end of last year, we had one election and in the fall of this year we will have another, I think this whole year will be a year in which Egyptians look at themselves by way of the government looking at itself, by way of the people deciding what role they want to play because of the election process.

Hilleary: So what makes Egypt different from Tunisia?

Fahmy: One distinct difference between Egypt and Tunisia, for example, that serves the Egyptian situation is there’s no comparison whatsoever in terms of the freedom of the press in Egypt and what it was in Tunisia. There is an almost absolute free flow of information inside Egypt, and that was not accessible at all in Tunisia.

On the other hand, Tunisia has a much larger middle class and, frankly, the percentage of educated people in Tunisia is statistically much higher than almost any other country in the Arab world. So I mention positives on both sides—and problems on both sides—simply to emphasize that we all need to look at our problems.

But it is, I think, simplistic and superficial to assume that because it happened “here” it will happen “there.” Yes, you will see people saying, “If it happened here, maybe we’ll try doing the same thing in other parts of the Arab world.” And that’s why I don’t think that you’ll find this emulated quickly. I do believe it’s an occasion for all of the Arab world to learn the lessons and to develop a better relationship with the people.

Hilleary: There’s a scheduled demonstration on January 25 in Cairo, I understand, to which Mohamed ElBaradei is invited. Is there a possibility that it could spark something larger than just a peaceful, quiet demonstration?

Fahmy: Let me answer that in the following fashion: First of all, I’m not aware of the details of the demonstration. That being said, demonstrations have been allowed in Egypt over the last two or three years which you would never have seen in Tunisia; by the way, so there is a fundamental difference between the clamp down in Tunisia and the situation here. We’ve had demonstrations in front of Parliament for the last four years, on a regular basis.

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Comments (16)

20-01-2011

You are such a liar. Arab countries are all the same and should all change their goverments as soon possible!!

26-01-2011 LP (USA)

"Are we seeing the beginning of a Tunisian style revolt in your country? Fahmy: No, I don’t think so." L O L

27-01-2011

Why not?

28-01-2011 mcc dady (USA)

This is political speak not an academic speaking. Unfortunately, he is (ab) using his academic position to foster the "middle of the road" interpretation. Boy, he either doesn't get it or doesn't want to get it. Either way, .....Just try getting to American U in Cairo's homepage. Can't be done right now because of all of the freedom information in Egypt.

28-01-2011 Meli

People learn to be emboldened by example. I wonder if, when AUC gets the internet back, they will opt to take this link off their homepage. But really, it does demonstrate the velocity and ferocity with which this all took off in Egypt. It will be a lovely case of foot-in-mouth disease for the former Ambassador, at any rate.

29-01-2011

well, it's only fair that his excellency's biased "academic" statements were proven wrong. I agree, AUC will probably take the link down...

29-01-2011

I echo that he is using his "academic" post to share what is clearly a non-academic message. Of course, he doesn't want to sit in home on house arrest either.

29-01-2011

Is this man out of touch or what? His comments are those of a Mubarak crony who only wants to saves his own position. His ramblings are also of a man who clearly has hidden in the ivory tower with now sense of reality for what is happening around him. Your days at AUC are numbered!

29-01-2011

As for the antiquated Mubarak and his cronies like the Ambassador, Shakespeare’s Macbeth said it best: ”I have lived long enough. My way of life Is fall'n into the sere, the yellow leaf, And that which should accompany old age, As honor, love, obedience, troops of friends, I must not look to have, but, in their stead, Curses, not loud but deep, mouth-honor, breath Which the poor heart would fain deny and dare not. Seyton!”

29-01-2011

What “false diplomacy” reeking from a man who calls himself the Dean of a global affairs school and former ambassador to the U.S. He clearly is speaking from the pro-Mubarak and pro-U.S. script. If the Egyptian people prevail I wonder if he will offer courses for “foot in mouth” discourse.

29-01-2011

As for the antiquated Mubarak and his cronies like the Ambassador, Shakespeare’s Macbeth said it best: ”I have lived long enough. My way of life Is fall'n into the sere, the yellow leaf, And that which should accompany old age, As honor, love, obedience, troops of friends, I must not look to have, but, in their stead, Curses, not loud but deep, mouth-honor, breath Which the poor heart would fain deny and dare not. Seyton!”

29-01-2011

Such “false diplomacy” reeking from a man who calls himself the Dean of a global affairs school and former ambassador to the U.S. He clearly is speaking from the pro-Mubarak and pro-U.S. script. If the Egyptian people prevail I wonder if he will offer courses in “foot in mouth” political discourse.

29-01-2011 Qwarto

"Are we seeing the beginning of a Tunisian style revolt in your country? Fahmy: No, I don’t think so." L O L --- Historical

30-01-2011

got that call pretty much straight wrong. glad to see AUC finds good quality deans for GAPP

30-01-2011 (USA)

The arrogance of this “Dean” is staggering. I wonder if the soon to be inaugurated new President of AUC, another so-called “Middle East” expert saw this one coming. The Egyptian people have presented what is clearly a “teachable moment.” I gather AUC will be too busy attempting to save its own future as opposed to cultivating opportunities for students and the community to understand what is happening in a country that is changing.

31-01-2011 Fred

LOL

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