Political Hotsheet
March 17, 2011 2:19 PM

Signs mount that Huckabee won't enter 2012 race

Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee talks about his new book, 'A Simple Government: Twelve Things We Really Need from Washington (and a Trillion that We Don't!),' at the National Press Club, February 24, 2011 in Washington, DC.

(Credit: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

Updated 2:55 p.m. Eastern Time

Mike Huckabee is running out of time to make up his mind on a 2012 presidential campaign - and the evidence is mounting that he will ultimately forgo another run at the White House.

The former Arkansas governor would enter the race as a formidable contender: Gallup found this week that he is the potential presidential candidate about whom Republicans feel most positively. And a Gallup poll last month found that Huckabee is one of just three Republicans - the other two are Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin - who have double-digit support from GOP primary voters.

One might think that Huckabee, who says he will announce a decision over the summer, would look at these numbers and conclude that he should jump headfirst into the race. But while he's openly discussing a possible run, he's sending decidedly mixed signals.

In this Feb. 24, 2011 file photo, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee shakes hands after speaking about his new book at the National Press Club.

(Credit: AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

For starters: While Romney, Tim Pawlenty and other likely candidates snap up key staffers ahead of announcing their runs, Huckabee has stayed on the sidelines even as his former staffers sign on with other candidates. Chip Salzman, Huckabee's campaign manager in 2008, is now chief of staff for freshman Rep. Chuck Fleischmann (R-Tenn.), though he says he could jump ship for a Huckabee run. Cliff Hurst, Huckabee's New Hampshire co-chair, has signed on with Pawlenty; so did one of Huckabee's top operatives in Iowa in 2008, Eric Wollson. Prominent New Hampshire Republican Ruth Griffin, a high-profile Huckabee supporter in the last cycle, has come out publicly for Romney.

A New Hampshire Republican tells CBS News that "no one has heard" from Huckabee in the key early voting state. While Pawlenty, Romney, Newt Gingrich and even Rudy Giuliani are making trips to the state ahead of a potential run, Huckabee has been conspicuously absent.

And then there's the fact that Huckabee is building a $3 million beach house in Santa Rosa Beach in Florida and has registered to vote there. The decision to move his residence there - away from Arkansas income taxes - fueled speculation that Huckabee is happy with his media gigs and the money they bring. (He also may need to keep that money coming in to pay the mortgage, which the Arkansas Times says totaled $2.8 million.) He makes $500,000 per year from his gig hosting a show on Fox News and also generates earnings from his radio show and book sales; he has acknowledged that "if I run, I walk away from a pretty good income."

When Fox announced two weeks ago that it was suspending contributors Gingrich and Rick Santorum because of their likely presidential runs, the network declined to suspend Huckabee, with Fox News executive Dianne Brandi pointedly noting that Huckabee is on a book tour and adding, "his present intention is to sell books." (At left, CBS News' John Dickerson's interview with Huckabee from February.)

A book tour, of course, can double as a mini-campaign, though it's somewhat hard to know what to make of Huckabee's itinerary for his book, "A Simple Government." He has multiple stops in Iowa, the first-in-the-nation voting state that he won in 2008, catapulting him to national prominence. But he is also stopping in plenty of states that won't matter in the 2012 campaign - Tennessee, Georgia, Kansas, Texas - and, so far, skipping New Hampshire altogether.

One southern Republican source told CBS News that he can't get a good read on Huckabee's intentions. The source said that while Huckabee's travel and public comments would seem to suggest he is running, people close to him don't believe he will ultimately decide to do so.

"He's going to have to make a decision soon," Ryan Rhodes of the Iowa Tea Party said in an interview. Rhodes, who noted that some of Huckabee's top Iowa talent had already signed on with potential rivals, said he too wasn't sure whether Huckabee would ultimately enter the race.

Former Arkansas governor and Baptist minister, Mike Huckabee delivers the sermon at First Wesleyan Church Sunday morning March 6, 2011 in High Point, N.C.

(Credit: AP Photo/News & Record, Lynn Hey)

Huckabee is so well-known at this point that he can move slowly with a presidential rollout - for one thing, he doesn't need to make himself better known to key Republicans, as Pawlenty has been working to do for more than a year. But as CBS News political consultant John Dickerson points out, there are limits to that luxury.

"He's very close to the point where his delay places him in a tight spot if he does run," he said. "He doesn't have the money and he doesn't like raising it. The GOP nominee will need to be able to raise a lot of money to run against Obama's $1 billion. Lack of aptitude on this score will matter."

Dickerson also noted that Huckabee's recent controversial comments - he erroneously suggested President Obama grew up in Kenya and suggested the president's worldview had been shaped by growing up around madrassas - point to the need for the very sort of staff he has pointedly not put together.

"It's fine to have quips be a part of your charm, but if you're going to run and be folksy then you need to have staff to help clean things up," said Dickerson. "He is not putting together a staff. His staffers are going to other campaigns, which means even if he did start there would be no one left to build an organization."

"One of the questions about Huckabee from the non-evangelical wing is whether he's ready for prime time in a dangerous world," he added. "Even if he were to run his late-assembled staff and seeming ambivalence about a run would offer a backdrop so that people would be ready to interpret his first gaffe or the inevitable stumbles once he became an actual candidate and write him off as just not rigorous enough to be president."

Mike Huckabee

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee speaks at the 'Values Voter Summit' September 17, 2010 in Washington, DC.

(Credit: Photo by Mark Wilson/Getty Images)

Huckabee's ground-level appeal is obvious: He is perhaps the only Republican in the country who squares unflinching social conservatism with a public persona so amiable that even his ideological opponents can't help but like him. If he runs, he has a good shot at becoming the consensus candidate for social conservatives, who are still a major force in the Republican Party even as it has shifted to a focus on fiscal issues.

But Huckabee has a good thing going, and he knows that Mr. Obama will not be easy to knock off next year; it's easy to imagine him concluding that he should stay put, enjoy making money and being a go-to conservative voice, and possibly take another look at a run in 2016. He knows that his star may well still be shining brightly four years from now, thanks to his high-profile media perch, which means that sitting out this cycle won't necessarily mean giving up on becoming president.

And frankly, he simply doesn't sound all that much like he wants to put himself through a campaign, even if he enjoys the speculation around whether he will run. He complained of the "harsh realities" of the cost of a campaign in an interview with the Associated Press earlier this month, and his lack of discipline in his public comments - asked about an Afghanistan endgame last month, he said, "I don't know. I don't think any of us know exactly" - suggest he isn't terribly worried about staying on message. 

That doesn't mean Huckabee isn't still leaving the door wide open for a run.

"It's no secret that Governor Huckabee is seriously considering a run for President in 2012 - and various national poll results are, quite frankly, becoming hard for the Governor and his political team to ignore," Hogan Gidley, the executive director of HuckPAC, Huckabee's political action committee, told CBS News.

Gidley added that "Mike Huckabee is for real - and he has the wide breadth of organized national support needed to win the Party's nomination for President and defeat Barack Obama."

That statement notwithstanding, Huckabee's comments and actions in recent months suggest that he may slowly be coming to the realization that he's better off sitting out this cycle. If he does forgo a run, social conservatives in Iowa -- and across the country -- will find themselves searching for another candidate they can rally around.

Tags:
2012 ,
Mike Huckabee ,
run ,
president
Topics:
Republicans ,
Campaign 2012

Add a Comment See all 171 Comments
by IL-Independent March 18, 2011 1:51 PM EDT
USA, I think you meant to say that it would put all politicians at the front of the line. Every politician from both parties have lied, cheated and the rest. So again when you say things that applies to both parties, make sure you include both parties, otherwise your point is mute
Reply to this comment
by USA__Is-back March 18, 2011 2:15 PM EDT
Of course they all lie, IL. I would have gotten carpel tunnnel syndrome if I listed them all - LOL. My point was to JV1970, who worships Palin. According to JV, Palin can do no wrong because in JV's words "she is a good christian". That is why I specifically mentioned only her in that post. You noticed I said "front of the line" and not the only person in line.
by JV1970 March 18, 2011 9:44 PM EDT
USA__Is-back Show me where I've EVER said that Palin is a good Christian! Show me! I dare you! All I've ever said is that she is a Christian! I've never called her good or bad! I simply said she's a Christian!
by glenp827 March 18, 2011 1:44 PM EDT
HUCKSTERBY is a RINO SELLOUT worthless piece of garbage you know he's crap since the MSM loves the clown
Reply to this comment
by WeHappyFew March 18, 2011 1:46 PM EDT
Don't hold back, now. Please share how you really feel................
by nanc12 March 18, 2011 1:29 PM EDT
I love the new poll that says WI gov Scottie Walker is the new "rising star" of the repub party for 2012. LOL - someone who couldn't finish college is a rising star. Doesn't take much, does it? Just a hatred for the middle class.
Reply to this comment
by tsigili March 18, 2011 1:28 PM EDT
Just as well. We don't need, nor want, a religious leader in charge of the country.
Reply to this comment
by JV1970 March 18, 2011 9:45 PM EDT
Yes we do!
by boblublaw March 18, 2011 1:17 PM EDT
romney is responsible for shmuckabees goofy face and mannerisms.
Reply to this comment
by fran650 March 18, 2011 1:12 PM EDT
Huck isn't going to give up a cushy job to again show the world he is a loser ... but that won't stop his hate campaign against Romney. Huck will be in every Baptist pulpit coast to coast preaching hate against the Mormans and living off the locals. The man is a user and a hater.
Reply to this comment
by goplies March 18, 2011 1:09 PM EDT
by Macksfield2 March 18, 2011 12:51 AM EDT
I love this, personally attacking Huckabee tells me you fear him.
------------------

Yes, and we are also afraid of Goofey, Ronald McDonald and Jim Nabors.
Reply to this comment
by san850 March 18, 2011 8:11 PM EDT
@Macksfield...is there a school somewhere that teaches right wingnuts to say "you fear him" or "you fear her" whenever a Liberal criticizes one of their darlings? I cannot count the times I've seen that phrase on these discussion boards.

I guess if you use that twisted logic, all of you conservatives must be scared to death of President Obama, huh?
by Simple_Conservative March 18, 2011 12:50 PM EDT
WE should all thak Chucklebee for giving us President Obahma. Chuckles stayed in the primary race long after he was no longer a viaable canidate just because he hates Mitt Rommney. That split the conservative vote and left us with wishy washy running on the Republican ticket in the general election. I don't agree with every idea Rommney has but I do believe that he would have taken some steps to get our economy moving instead of stimulating us to death. So here's my THANKS Chuckles. Hope you got a thank you card from the liberals.
Reply to this comment
by Ms_enza March 18, 2011 1:09 PM EDT
Yes, thank you Chuckles. Romney would have destroyed the nation by now.
by Simple_Conservative March 18, 2011 1:18 PM EDT
Rommney would have had this naton back to work with debt going down. But now we all get this wonerful welfare state, thanks to Pres. Obahma
See all 4 Replies
by USA__Is-back March 18, 2011 11:54 AM EDT
by JV1970 March 18, 2011 10:46 AM EDT
No, you're the moron that's dangerous! The Constitution should be amended to be in God's standards! In fact everything we do should be in line with God's standards!
-------------------------
Let's start with adding the 10 commandments to the Constitution JV1970. Let's make adultry a capitol offense. Anyone who commits adultry should be put to death immediately! Who should we start with?

Seriously JV, every time you post, the founding fathers roll over in their grave.
Reply to this comment
by san850 March 18, 2011 12:19 PM EDT
How about the Fifth Commandment..."Honor your father and your mother"? All you kids out there that "talk back" or "disobey" your parents better watch out if a Theocrat is elected and has their way....there may be public hangings.
by USA__Is-back March 18, 2011 12:20 PM EDT
san - don't forget the 9th commandment - Thou shalt not bear false witness (LIE). That puts Palin at the front of the line once again!
See all 9 Replies
by jackp32 March 18, 2011 11:12 AM EDT
I think this guy should be known as "Huckafraud." He is a big windbag who thinks he sits atop a great white horse ready to charge into the Whitehouse. He may think he has all of the answers but in reality he has no answers on how to restore the U.S. into a great country once again. No, I am not a liberal. I am the most conservative person you would ever care to meet.
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