United Nations Security Council Approves Resolution for No-Fly Over Libya

18 Mar

Photo Credit: Wiki Commons

In a heartening turn of events, Gaddafi’s Foreign Minister Moussa Koussa released a statement saying,“Libya declared a ceasefire in the country to protect civilians and comply with a United Nations resolution passed overnight.”

The US resolution which was passed unanimously with 10 in favor, 0 against and 5 abstentions (China, Russia, India, Brazil, Germany),demanded “an immediate ceasefire in Libya, including an end to the current attacks against civilians, which it said may amount to “crimes against humanity.” As part of the resolution, the UN agreed on a imposing a ban on all flights in and out of the country’s airspace and tightened sanctions of Gaddafi’s government. Most significant, was the contentious article that authorized UN member states,

“to take all necessary measures [notwithstanding the previous arms embargo] to protect civilians and civilian populated areas under threat of attack in the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya, including Benghazi, while excluding a foreign occupation force of any form on any part of Libyan territory.”

While the news is certainly welcomed in the rebel held stronghold of Benghazi where the announcement was greeted with joyous celebrations throughout the streets, many in the international community expressed reservations. Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel defended her country’s decision to abstain from the vote voicing her concern and Germany’s unwillingness to participate militarily. The other 4 abstaining countries expressed similar misgivings regarding the use of military support.

Besides the image problem resulting from the sentence “all necessary measures” being seen as another military invasion of a Muslim country by the West, other questions remain.

Most notably as to what will come next in Libya.

Is the Libyan foreign minister’s ceasefire sincere or will Gaddafi keep up the offensive anyway? If genuine, it seems highly unlikely that the rebels who have sustained heavily causalities would be willing to live under Gaddafi’s continued rule. Therefore does Gaddafi retreat to the west of the country and leave the east to the rebels? Would Libya therefore be divided into 2 states? If not, will Gaddafi leave or be finally knocked off by one of his inner circle? Such news would no doubt be greeted by relief by the international community, but then what?

Revolution is a messy process and given Gaddafi’s 30 year campaign to do away with civil society and government institutions, who would assume power? The adhoc council in Benghazi that France recognized as therepresentative government of Libya surely won’t be accepted by those in Tripoli.

Finally, the question that must trouble Hilary and the State Department more than any other is what is America’s role if there is a civil war? Would America side with the rebels in the east (or possibly a yet unknown group) or would the US refrain from entering into a sovereign dispute?

Surely America will seek some kind of alliance that would ensure that the future government, whoever it is, will be friendly towards the West. Will reconstruction and aid be enough or will more covert military funding and support be necessary to win loyalties?

All of these are critical unanswered questions, yet the logistical and funding issues still have to be sorted out as well. With two current wars, how do America and other UN countries propose to fund the costly no-fly zone and any further military actions.

These are just some of the difficult uncertainties that will start to unfold in the coming days as Libya’s future is fought over by various parties. However for the moment, liberal internationalists, the UN and the citizens in Benghazi can celebrate as the UN looks to have at least initially intimidated Gaddafi and his regime and achieved their biggest success in conflict resolution in recent memory.

Why A No-fly Zone over Libya is the only Military Action the US should Implement

15 Mar

Photo Credit: David Dietz

A little over a week ago, Senators Joe Lieberman and John McCain appeared on Sunday morning talk shows arguing America has the responsibility to aid the Libyan opposition.

By declaring their support for arming the rebels with ‘covert’ weapons, the drumbeat to military intervention in Libya has begun.

More recently in an op-ed piece for the Wall Street Journal, Paul Wolfowitz joined in the fray arguing, “It is both morally right and in America’s strategic interest to enable the Libyans to fight for themselves.”

As Maureen Dowd of the New York times so glibly retorted:

“You would think that a major architect of the disastrous wars and interminable occupations in Afghanistan and Iraq would have the good manners to shut up and take up horticulture. But the neo-con naif has no shame.”

Seriously. How do these obdurate neo-cons do it? How can Wolofitz and others conscientiously challenge Obama’s moral authority?

Aren’t these guys from the same mind as Dick Cheney who famously said the United States would be greeted as liberators with roads lined with flowers and candy?”

That worked out well.

It seems to me that the roads have been paved more with IED’s than rose petals.

Yet undaunted they press on, arguing that Libya won’t be the next Iraq. On that point, they might actually be right. Fiercely tribal, devoid of any political structure and facing an assured leadership vacuum if, and when Gaddafi finally falls, Libya won’t be the next Iraq. Sadly, its looking more like the next Afghanistan.

Remember what happened there? The US funneled hundreds of millions of dollars and thousands of arms to help the mujahedeen, who after expelling the Soviet Union turned Afghanistan into a militant Islamic state that harbored terrorists and harshly oppressed its own people.

20 odd years later, didn’t those same ‘freedom’ fighters who were so grateful for our support, turn our weapons on our own military? And what about Osama Bin Laden? He wasn’t a beneficiary of our ‘covert’ CIA support was he? Oh wait, never mind.

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Funny Findings in Lebanon

15 Mar

Photo Credit: David Dietz

A few humorous musings from my first few days in Lebanon.

Some in Lebanon I guess, aren’t exactly concerned with conforming to politically correct standards.  Just look at the food names:

Ras al A3bd – A popular chocolate covered marsh-mellow like candy bar, Ras al A3bd means head of the slave. Recently however, the name was changed to be much less gruesome “Tarboosh,” which is the Arabic word for the  popular Red Fez hat typically found in North Africa.

Black Man – Even more un PC is the name of this type of candy/cookie similar to an Oreo. I wonder if the Manning brothers and Williams sisters would still endorse Oreo if it had such a name?

Or, if you are thirsty for a drink you can stop at a famous restaurant in Al Hamra district and order a “Hilter,” which is listed right below the Aloha and Tahiti fruit cocktails. Ahh yes, the sensible progression from the tropical paradises of Hawaii and Tahiti to Hilter…

Lastly, in a definite first, I finally met an Arab (who isn’t Iraqi) who is vehemently in support of President Bush and the Iraq war. His other favorite presidents? George Bush Senior and Jimmy Carter. Go figure.

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Lebanon Day 2: A Trip Down South

15 Mar

Photo Credit: Wiki Commons

Lebanon is the perfect country if you are looking to start a new political party. Apparently all you need is a couple of friends, a clever name and a colorful design for a flag. Divided into 18 state-recognized religious sects (4 Muslim, 12 Christian, 1 Druze and 1 Jewish), the small Mediterranean nation is also home to 101 officially recognized parties, a number that does not account for another 3 forbidden parties and more than a dozen now defunct political organizations. With politics and religion almost always intertwined, parties join and switch alliances with regularity trying to best position themselves and their political and religious interests. Such is the ephemeral nature of Lebanese politics that after members of the March 8 Alliance pulled out thus toppling the government back on Jan 12, a new cabinet has yet to be formed.

In reality, Lebanese politics is a bit simpler than the 100+ parties might suggest, albeit only a bit. Currently, 2 main coalitions have coalesced to consolidate power to make forming ruling blocs easier: The March 14th Alliance, which is a coalition of political parties formed after the assassination of Rafik Hariri that calls for sovereignty over all Lebanese territories and is led by Rafik’s son Saad Hariri, and the generally pro-Syrian March 8th Alliance which was formed in response to the Cedar Revolution and subsequent March 14th movement. Currently the March 14th alliance counts 18 parties amongst its coalition while March 8th has 38 member affiliates.

While it’s dangerously facile to do so, for the sake of simplicity, Lebanon’s political outlook can be boiled down even further: the supporters and coalition of the late Rafik Hariri, and Hezbollah. No undertaking better illustrates such a statement than a drive from downtown Beirut to Mltia, a small Hezbollah aligned village in Southern Lebanon where one can find the Hezbollah Resistance of Occupation Tourist Complex, a museum of very different repute from those you might find in New York.

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Bahrain Welcomes Military Troops from Saudi Arabia

15 Mar

Photo Credit: Wiki Commons

In a candid display of vulnerability rarely seen from Arab leaders, King Al Khalifa and the Bahraini government welcomed the presence of Saudi troops into the tiny Gulf Island. (The UAE also pledged 500 police to Bahrain, although their purpose has yet to be defined by either government).

The move, which indicates a loss of control and influence by the Bahraini government its people, was designed to bolster protection around government and financial facilities 24 hours after a surge in violent protests left the Kingdom shaken.

Not only was Bahrain’s official request for troops to the Gulf Co-Operation Council an admission of feebleness, more importantly it forced Saudi Arabia to tip their hand and play cards they had no desire to show.

For weeks the Saudi Kingdom has been watching with great anxiety hoping an intervention in Bahrain would not be necessary yet surely realizing all the while that one day it could reach this point. Saudi has been so reluctant to intervene in Bahrain because they essentially lose on each option.

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Why Gaddafi is Benefitting from Japan’s Earthquake

14 Mar

Photo Credit: Wiki Commons

Sometimes in life, success is all about timing. The Arab League is finding out the hard way. After vacillating on the decision for weeks, the Arab League finally released a unified announcement calling for a no-fly zone over Libya in hopes of further isolating Gaddafi and expediting the end of his regime. A day later, the Arab League’s crucial announcement was swept aside and lost in the wreckage of the tsunami, as the world turned its attention away from the Libyan battle fields to mourn the loss of life and devastation caused by the record 9.0 magnitude quake. While Japanese and the international community work to cope with the tragedy, back in Libya Colonel Gaddafi can breathe a little more easily as the noose around his neck, which Obama promised to tighten, suddenly became a whole lot looser.

As the world nervously awaits news on the state of the Japanese nuclear power plants, Gaddafi, President Saleh of Yemen and King Al Khalifa in Bahrain have used the brief respite from the almost daily damning front page news coverage, to further crackdown on their people. While the media has by no means completely turned a blind eye on the Middle East, escalating violence today in Libya and especially Bahrain and Yemen showed two troubling developments which together should been seen as a clear indication that increasing danger and bloodshed await protestors throughout.

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Day 1 in Beirut: March 14th Alliance Rally

14 Mar

Photo Credit: David Dietz

“It wasn’t a protest it was a festival,” pronounced my friend and Beirut resident over lunch after we had just left the March 14th Alliance demonstrations in the capital’s downtown martyr’s square. It was tough to disagree with him. For those not used to its intricate oddities and complexities, deciphering Lebanese politics is like trying to crack hieroglyphics without the Rosetta Stone (the original not the language CD). Today’s massive rally honoring the death of the late Prime Minister Rafik Hariri only added to the sense of perplexity and theatrical political atmosphere. The protests had a more festive atmosphere than one might expect considering the supporters, a mix of several loosely politically affiliated parties and religious coalitions, were paying homage to a man assassinated in a gruesome car bomb.  For most of the late morning and afternoon protestors – some reports indicating as many as 100,000 strong – gathered in the square to chant cheer and well, dance. As the protest wore on, loud music was pumped in to energize the crowds, which in turn, broke out into spontaneous outbursts of song and dance. Yet while several people in the audience confirmed it was indeed a celebration of his legacy, the organizers behind the rally had much different goals. Saad al-Hariri the now former Prime Minister and son of Rafik recently added a new element to the mix: a desire to regulate Hezbollah’s weaponry under the control of the National Government. Addressing the crowd earlier in the day, Hariri told the crowd ”It is impossible for weapons to stay raised against the will of a democratic people and against the truth.” He continued by saying ”We want to put [Hezbollah's weapons] under the control and authority of the state because it’s the army which protects us all.”

This tougher stance against Hezbollah came in contrast to Saad’s earlier tone while serving as Prime Minister , in which he was far less hostile towards Hezbollah parliament members, and may signal the March 14th Alliances’ growing frustration and feeling of impotence after the government collapsed when Hezbollah members walked out in January.

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Cairo day 3: Hope and concern for Egypt’s future

13 Mar

Photo Credit: David Dietz

No matter how cynical one may be, we as Americans have the power to revise and even completely revamp our political system if we deem necessary. We may not vote for drastic measures, but every four years we are at least presented an opportunity to do so. Egyptians haven’t had such an opportunity in the life times and for many among the small gathering of people who were milling around Tahrir Square again today, the revolution, which toppled the government over two weeks ago, was the result of their frustration over continually being silenced and shut out of a say in their future. Several of the people who I spoke to said that they weren’t ready to leave the square because after 30 years under Hosni Mubarak, politics and the way of life became stagnant and needed a major “shake up” to redefine the government’s role and power.

A far less outspoken and generally wealthier group of Egyptians disagree. I discussed the revolution and Egypt’s future with one such member of that group over a lovely lunch (which considering it was 5 pm seemed rather more like dinner) of Molohaya, chicken, potatoes and some sort of tasty Egyptian spring roll. The tone of the mother of two of my good friends was remarkably different from those in Tahrir, yet equally weighty. Expressing a view that has gone widely overlooked due to the West’s sometimes blinding thirst for democracy, she expressed her concern for the future of Egypt saying that “good and honorable people” some with whom she and her husband were acquaintances with, were being disgraced for having known or done business with members of the old regime even though that was part of the culture. While admitting that corruption – even down to the common day-to-day hassles that require small bribes to find parking spaces in the streets or paperwork such as driver licenses pushed through government bureaucracy – was ‘unethical on everybody’s part and should ideally be eliminated’ she defended the business community for having no other choice in the matter. The government she claimed, was involved in every major financial deal in Egypt and no business had the power to deny the regime its percentage of the deal. Such a business climate, which is similar to dozens of other countries around the globe, was and still is the cost of doing business in Egypt and while government ministers may have unjustly profited in the past, such ventures brought capital and foreign investment to Egypt which strengthened the economy as a whole.

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Arab League Calls for UN Security Council to Impose No-Fly Zone over Libya

13 Mar

Photo Credit - Wiki Commons via Voice of America

In a decision agreed upon by all attending members, the Arab league announced today that it was calling upon the United Nations Security Council to impose a no-fly zone over Libya to protect its citizens from “any military action against the People of Libya,” according Amr Moussa, the secretary-general of the Arab League.

The decision comes a day after Barack Obama promised to “tighten the noose” around the Gaddafi regime. The Arab League’s decision was the toughest talk levied to date against the embattled Libyan leader  and could be the regional support that NATO was looking for before committing to any intervention. Whether or not the recommendation is strong enough for the United States and the UN to finally take action remains to be seen, but one thing remains abundantly clear: The Libyan opposition is in desperate need of help.

If the resistance movement in Libya is going to last, even a no-fly zone may not suffice. Troubling news came in a short time ago that Ali Hassan Al Jaber, an Al Jazeera cameraman, was killed in an ambush outside the rebel stronghold of Benghazi. Besides the obviously tragic nature of the news, such reports also indicate that government forces may be closing in on the opposition’s main city and seat of the new local government, which was just recently recognized by France to be the sole representative authority of the Libyan people.

The statement disclosing Mr. AL Jaber’s death was preceded by reports of opposition fighters losing key ground in the battle for Libya. The city of Brega, where some of the fiercest fighting has occurred, fell today to government forces. This comes of the heels of conflicting reports that the rebels were forced to retreat from the oil city of Ras Lanuf.

With the news that Brega may have fallen comes the sobering and scary reality that Benghazi, the country’s second largest city, may be next. While still firmly under rebel control, tensions are now high. As Al Jazeera’s Tony Birtley pointed out, the Libyan army still has not shown the full potential of its arial and ground capabilities saying ”when all that is employed, as the full might of his force is unleashed, there’s concern here.”

With Misrata (200 miles East of Tripoli) the only town in rebel hands in the West and with pro-Gaddafi forces inching closer to Benghazi, concern seems quite the understatement because while a no-fly zone would be a good first start, it might not be enough.

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Cairo Day 2 – A Positive Step Forward: Christian Muslim Unity

12 Mar

After a week of escalating sectarian tensions which seemed to unnerve the Egyptian populace, the country, at least the large gathering of those in Tahrir, appeared to have taken a positive step forward. The now regular Friday Tahrir protest during which demonstrators were supposed to air a variety of economic, political and social grievances was instead dominated by a movement for religious and cultural unity with a joyous and upbeat crowd chanting “Muslims, Christians hand-in-hand” throughout much of the early afternoon.

A commitment to a shared collective responsibility and a desire for life to return to normal were the messages that carried the day not only in the square but around the city as well.

After days of lawlessness on the roads, volunteers guiding traffic could be seen throughout different neighborhoods, pitching in to restore a semblance of order to the already clogged and chaotic Cairo streets. One young resident in Zamalek said he had come out to direct traffic because it was ‘every Egyptian’s duty to help’ and he was tired of  congested roads. He hoped others would follow his lead and do the same, but by late afternoon that was no longer necessary as the Police reemerged on the streets after a nearly three week hiatus to the delight of many residents. Contrary to the reception one might have expected – considering the scathing reviews of the police over the past month – many Cairenes offered to move on and forgive their past misdeeds. As Shadi, American University of Cairo student commented,

“they aren’t all bad guys. 10,000 of them quit during the revolution in protest themselves. They don’t get paid enough so they were scared that if they didn’t care out the government’s orders they would lose their jobs and wouldn’t be able to feed their families. They aren’t as well trained as the army, but it’s good to see them back. It gives us order and sense of normalcy.”

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