A post at Democracy Digest discusses whether or not Turkey is still a model for democracy in the Arab world. Several commentators and analysts have pointed to Turkey under the rule of the AKP as proof that Islamist based parties can respect and promote democratic norms. This argument is extended to demonstrate that fear of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and other Islamist parties across the Arab world is misplaced. However, that consensus is now eroding. Over the past several years the AKP run government has arrested many journalists, activists, and secular dissidents, and critics accuse the AKP of using anti-democratic methods to silence opposition. Many commentators are openly worrying about Turkish “backsliding on fundamental freedoms,” and what they claim is the increasingly authoritarian nature of the AKP.
Bilal Y. Saab, writing for The National Interest, argues that a collapse of the regime would have ripple effects across the Middle East and the country’s network of external relations could collapse. He outlines two ways in which a post-Assad Syria could develop. On the positive side, Syrian intervention in Lebanese politics could essentially be eliminated along with its support for Hezbollah. This would significantly weaken Hezbollah he argues. The collapse of the Assad regime could also deprive Hamas of a political base in Damascus. This development could help spur the stalled Peace Process between Israel and the Palestinians, he posits. There could also be a regional power balance shift as a Sunni Syrian leadership may opt for terminating its partnership with Iran which would create an arc of Sunni states in the region which would greater serve U.S. interests. Furthermore, a democratic Syria could help security and stability in Iraq.
On the negative side, regime collapse could lead to sectarian conflict which could spread to neighboring countries and destabilize the whole region. This is particularly worrisome in Lebanon where the specter of armed sectarian conflict is never far from the surface. If Syrian Kurds start to demand autonomy, the Turkish military may feel the need to get involved. Saab also states that a new government in Syria could be dominated by a more militant and assertive group of Syrian nationalists that are determined to wrest the Golan Heights back from Israel. The Syrian branch of the Muslim brotherhood, being more radical and extreme than its Egyptian counterpart, could invite al-Qaeda to “set up shop” in the country. Saab indicates that the best outcome that would serve U.S. interests best would be for Bashar al-Assad to dismantle his regime but remain in power.
Soner Cagaptay, writing at the Wall Street Journal,cautions against calls for post-authoritarian Arab countries to follow the Turkish model. Cagaptay argues that the Justice and Development Party, or the AKP, has slowly been “transforming Turkish society by making religion the moral compass of the country’s body politic.” The problem with this shift is that “once narrowly-defined faith becomes the guiding principle in policy, fundamentalists claiming ideological purity become more competitive politically.” The author outlines the Islamicization of Turkish politics and discusses how newly formed religious groups, such as Kurdish Hezbollah, may become competition for the AKP. Historically, Cagaptay notes, fundamentalists defeat conservatives in the competition for ideological purity. He also discusses what such a shift could mean for the United States and Europe, especially in light of upheavals across the Arab world.
Reports emerged on Monday that security forces in Syria have fired teargas and shots in the air as anti-government protests flared again in the southern city of Deraa. The unrest in Deraa follows clashes in Latakia over the weekend, in which at least 12 people were killed which prompted authorities to state again on Sunday that they would lift the decade long emergency law after it enacts an anti-terrorism law. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is expected to address the nation on Tuesday.
Turkey’s Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, spoke with Assad over the weekend and urged him to implement reform: “We did not receive a negative answer when we urged Mr Assad to listen to the voice of people. I hope he makes the announcement today or tomorrow … It is impossible for us to remain silent in the face of these events, we have a 800km-long border with Syria.”
On Friday, the Hudson Institute hosted an event focused on the transitional government processes taking place in Egypt and Tunisia as well as the unrest in the region and the role that Islamists will play, entitled, “How Should the U.S. Respond to the Prospect of Islamist Governments?” The event was moderated by Nina Shea, Senior Fellow and Director of the Center for Religious Freedom at the Hudson Institute. The panel of speakers consisted of: Ed Husain, Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations; Hedieh Mirahmadi, President of the World Organization for Resource Development; and Hillel Fradkin, Senior Fellow and Director of the Center on Islam, Democracy and the Future of the Muslim World at the Hudson Institute.
Senator John Kerry (D-MA) delivered a speech at The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace on Wednesday, March 16, 2011, on U.S. foreign policy toward the Middle East in light of the recent uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt and continued unrest and protests across the entire region. Marwan Muasher, vice president of studies at The Carnegie Endowment introduced Senator Kerry and made brief remarks about the current unrest in the region.
For full notes, continue below. For pdf version, click here.
The House Subcommittee on the Middle East and South Asia held an open hearing on U.S. policy in response to the political unrest across the Middle East as well as to discuss the economic issues facing the region, the committee – chaired by Congressman Steve Chabot (R-OH) and with ranking member Congressman Gary L. Ackerman(D-NY) in attendance – requested the testimony of two individuals: Jeffrey D. Feltman Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern and Mr. George A. Laudato Administrator’s Special Assistant for the Middle East atthe U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID).
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On Monday, a Turkish court charged five journalists of being involved in an alleged plot to overthrow Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s government. The journalists were remanded into custody and joined two additional journalists who were also charged with involvement in the same plot on Sunday. The seven journalists’ houses were raided by police a week ago. The arrests come amidst a protracted investigation by the Turkish government of the ultra-nationalist group Ergenekon, which the government accuses of plotting to overthrow the Islamist-rooted ruling AKP party. The European Union and prominent human rights groups have expressed concern over the arrests as government suppression of free speech. Interior Minister Besir Atalay responded to such charges saying: “It is an injustice that the government should be exposed to allegations of silencing the voice of the press or limiting press freedom.”
On Friday, the Wilson Center hosted an event, entitled, “Egypt and the Middle: A Turkish Model of Democracy,” discussing the growth of democracy in Egypt and the role other democratic models could play in the process. John Sitilides,Chairman of the Board of Advisors for the Wilson Center Southeast Europe Project moderated and introduced the speakers: Steven A. Cook, the Hasib J. Sabbagh senior fellow for Middle Eastern studies at the Council on Foreign Relations; Henry J. Barkey, a visiting scholar at the Carnegie Middle East Program and the Bernar L. and Bertha F. Cohen Professor at Lehigh University; and Robert Toscano a former Italian diplomat who was ambassador to Iran from 2003-2008 and India from 2008-2010.
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On Monday, Senator John McCain (R-AZ) stated, “The revolution in Tunisia has been very successful and it has become a model for the region. We stand ready to provide training to help Tunisia’s military to provide security.” Senator Joe Lieberman (D-CT) also lauded the role of the Tunisian military and condemned the violence in Libya, “The Tunisian military played a constructive role…but the military in Libya has been against the people. That is unacceptable.” Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu also stated that Tunisia has an opportunity to provide a positive model for countries seeking reform, “if it can avoid pitfalls on the path to elections.” He calls on the interim government to make constitutional changes and set up institutions to ensure the rule of law for the election: “It is very important that these processes are entertained in a way that everybody in this society can believe in and have trust in.”
On Tuesday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahuexpressed his cautious support for the protesters in Egypt, encouraging, “the advancement of free and democratic values in the Middle East.” Netanyahu also stated: “Israel believes that the global community must demand that any Egyptian government preserve the peace treaty with Israel.” This claim came in the context of a broader appeal to the protesters if they succeed, to maintain Egypt’s peace treaty with Israel. This comes from the fear of the possibility of radical elements assuming control, which Netanyahu believes would be “a blow to peace and democracy.”
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, gave explicit comments in support of the Egyptian protesters stating: “We hope that these incidents come to an end as soon as possible, without leading to great suffering, and that the people’s legitimate and sensible demands are met.” Erdogan went further asserting: “Our greatest wish in Egypt and Tunisia is that reforms are implemented as soon as possible, but also that peace and security are established.”
Following the release of sealed indictments by the United Nations Tribunal and the collapse of the Lebanese Government, Saudi King Abdullah has declared an end to the Saudi-Syrian initiative due to lack of progress. However, the Turkish and Qatari Foreign Ministers, Ahmet Davutoglu and Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim bin Jaber al-Thani, respectively, are attempting to mitigate tension by meeting with Hezbollah and other high-ranking officials in the Lebanese Government. Fears of potential Hezbollah actions in response to the indictments and renewed sectarian violence remain rife. The group conducted a show of force that began early Tuesday in which Hezbollah members silenty patrolled the streets of Beirut in black uniforms, causing fear and panic among city residents. The US State Department responded to recent events stating: “We do have ongoing concerns that various elements within Lebanon – both inside Lebanon and outside Lebanon – will continue to try to politicize this process.”
President Barack Obama directly appointedRobert Ford as Ambassador to Syria and Frank Ricciardone as Ambassador to Turkey on Wednesday, bypassing the Senate confirmation process. Ford, a career foreign service officer, most recently served as a senior diplomat in Iraq and was the U.S. Ambassador to Algeria from 2006 to 2008. Ricciarone, also a career diplomat, was the Deputy Ambassador to Afghanistan and served as the U.S. Ambassador to Egypt from 2005 to 2008. Senate Republicans had blocked the confirmation of both men—Ford to protest the Obama administration’s Syria policy and Ricciardone because of concerns about his tenure as Ambassador to Egypt. The recess appointments will last until the end of 2011.
Writing at Foreign Policy, Gonul Tolcounters criticism of Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP). “The party’s performance in government suggests that pressures from the opposition and from within its own diverse constituency have led the AKP to pursue centrist policies at the expense of alienating more conservative segments of its base,” Tol writes. The central question is will AKP continue to pursue economic and political reforms before and after the 2011 parliamentary election or “suffer from incumbent fatigue.”
On Monday evening, as part of the 2010 Foreign Policy Initiative Forum, a panel discussion was held titled “A Changing Middle East: Iran, Turkey, and Prospects for Peace.” The discussants were Elliot Abrams, of the Council on Foreign Relations, Ambassador Eric Edelman, of the Foreign Policy Initiative and Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, and Reuel Gerecht of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. The discussion was moderated by Lee Smith of the Weekly Standard.
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The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars Middle East Program released a new paper (pdf) today, titled “Islamic Feminism and Beyond: The New Frontier.” The introduction is written by Haleh Esfandiari and Margot Badran, and the paper includes six sections covering a range of topics and countries. The articles include “Feminist Activism for Change in Family Laws and Practices: Lessons from the Egyptian Past for the Global Present” by Margot Badran, “Recent Amendments in the Turkish Civil and Criminal Codes and the Role of Feminist NGOs” by Binnaz Toprak, “Women and the Politics of Reform in Morocco” by Souad Eddouada, “Beyond Islamic Feminism: Women and Representation in Iran’s Democracy Movement” by Nayereh Tohidi, “The Personal Status Code and Women’s Celibacy in Tunisia” by Lilia Labidi, and “Analyzing Reform Successes and Failures: The Personal Status Regime in the Arab World” by Amaney Jamal.
The Center for American Progress (CAP) hosted a discussion titled “The Future of the U.S.-Turkey Relationship” on Wednesday. Brian Katulis, senior fellow at CAP, moderated a panel composed of Steven Cook, senior fellow of Middle Eastern studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkish Research Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, and Michael Werz, senior fellow at CAP. As part of the larger discussion of Turkey-U.S. relations, the panelists addressed the development of democracy in Turkey.
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On Wednesday, Dr. Nora Fisher Onar, professor of Politics and International Relations at Bahcesehir Unverisity in Istanbul and visiting research fellow at Oxford University’s Centre for International Studies, spoke on differing schools of thought within Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) at the Woodrow Wilson Center.
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At the Guardian’s Comment is Free, human rights lawyer Margaret Owendescribes the trial in Turkey of 151 Kurdish politicians, lawyers, and other leaders as “a trial that would shame any democracy.” Observers have “widely condemned” the process – evidence-gathering and courtroom procedures “breach all international and European standards on human rights and fair trials,” Owen writes, and the trial is essentially political, not legal. She mentions the closure of pro-Kurdish political parties, arrests of Kurdish political leaders, and bans against some civil society organizations. This trial, Owen concludes, “will reveal Turkey’s true status in the context of democracy, justice and the rule of law.” The judge will decide at the end of this week whether the trial will continue or whether the detainees will be released, and Owen calls on the ruling AKP to bring the trial to a close and release the accused.
