Is America ready for Romney?

I still think Giuliani is going to beat Hillary Clinton in the 2008 general election.

And I'm still pulling for Pete DuPont to win the GOP nod in the 1988 Iowa caucus.

kinetic military action is the jazzercise of warmaking.

Also by everyone in Massachusetts, who are still trying to clean up his messes.

Has anyone ever polled what people think they mean when they self-identify ideologically? It wouldn't help predict 2012, but I'd like to know. TV, I'll take that bet.

Please God no theocrats.

I wouldn't read too much into the poll numbers. I suspect the "growing ranks of Republicans" are really just former Republicans who left the GOP during the last few Bush years returning to the flock now that Obama has lost his luster (W.W., as a resident of the People's Republic of Iowa City, perhaps you can tell us how much Obamania has truly subsided).

Obama won the presidency because of the economy and his re-election bid will depend on it as well. If the main unemployment rate remains above 8% by October '12, I suspect he'll lose regardless of the GOP candidate's identity. A drop below 7% will havee him looking imminently electable, however.

Mitt Romney gave it his best shot in the last election, and got nowhere, despite an endorsement from the National Review and unofficial backing of the GOP national committee. His problem is that even those who don't know his history of flip-flops can still pick up on his insincerity; he's just a little too slick, even for a politician. If Romney is such a strong contender, why didn't he win the nomination last time?

The Republicans need a fresh face, perhaps one of the current state governors who has a reputation for pragmatic governing.

Gazing into the tea leaves we find the GOP choice comes down to:

A somnolent Governor from the most boring state in the Union
A reality challenged Congresswoman from the most boring state in the Union
An uptight Mormon millionaire with a plastic bouffant
A overly tanned, closet gay, pro-life Governor from Florida
A fat, politically incorrect redneck from Mississippi
An ex-fat baptist minister cum rock star cum creationist
A grammatically challenged reality TV celebrity from Alaska with a Twitter account.
An Indian-American Governor with a head too big for his body
A crazy ophthalmologist
...and the crazy ophthalmologist's old man

And you ask the question "Is America ready for Romney?"...?!?
Romney is the most mainstream of the lot!

I f**ckin LOVE American politics!

Sorry Doug, I lost my bankroll last year betting on the Bills to win either Super Bowl XXV, XXVI, XXVII, or XXVIII.

"or get an unelectable gift from Republican primary voters."

It is unclear to me who in the current line-up (with the exception of Daniels who will never get picked) doesn't fit that description.

"America is an increasingly conservative nation, by ideology and by political affiliation."

You measure 2008-2010 during one of the worst downturns since the great depression. People blame the party that is in power. If the economy turns you'll see the numbers change both for ideology and party I believe.

What are the odds of Obama winning in 2012 if, when the Supreme Court hears the Health Care appeal, they also rule that Obama is not in fact a natural born citizen, but actually a Kenyan/Indonesian?

It would be a narrower ground on which to make a ruling: Obama cannot Constitutionally hold office, therefore the Health Care bill never complied with the Presentment clause and the issue of the insurance mandate's Constitutionality under the Commerce Clause would be moot.

Remember, you heard it from me first.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2011/03/goat_entrails

Abortion aside, watching this video makes me cringe. at the idea of a Romney presidency. Underneath it all, he probably is pro-choice, but it awful to watch him forcefully deny all of the pandering and vagaries of his positions with a shit-eating, indignant grin.

I can't even imagine what Romney and his administration could come up with on a weekly basis to compete with "kinetic military action," but they will.

I don't find those trends at all unusual - after the night before, comes the morning after - and I think they tell us exactly nothing about 2012.

How can anyone consider Obama a strong leader when he doesn't have the balls to stand up and fight the GOP ?

Romney is an eel. The guy is just too creepy to think about. I don't believe anything he says.

@SaskatoonMark, I think Romney's problem in 2008 was that he was running against McCain. This time around Romney is the strongest candidate.

@Alaskaksala, elections hang on the economy but ideology does not. TPers aren't voting Democrat when the economy improves.

bampbs wrote: Mar 30th 2011 9:36 GMT
"Romney is an eel. The guy is just too creepy to think about. I don't believe anything he says."

Hey, I voted for that creepy eel! And I did it for one and only one reason, the MA legislature is 80% democrat and I wanted a non-Democrat governor to lock the barn door before the horses got stolen.

That he is a slick, not to be believed, carpet bagger Republican goes without saying. A Romney-Palin ticket is my idea of an assured Obama Victory ticket.

This article assumes a couple of things that I would not.

First, I discount any talk about a front runner for the Republican candidacy. A year from now the 'real' Tea Partiers ought to be in full revolt against both parties' leadership--including many of the Republican establishment horses such as Romney. I could very easily see the conservative core rejecting slick and driving a little-known straight to the roses. Nothing would delight me more of course, since it would essentially be the beginnings of the multiparty system our nation so direly needs.

Secondly I think that Obama's weakness is greatly overstated. The moment he elects to turn on Congress and call them on their corrupt obstinance and distorted worldview will be the moment he ascends to leadership and recovers several gradations of popularity on both sides of the so-called center. That card, played at the right time, probably makes the likely Republican nominee irrelevant. On top of that, he'll be in position to upgrade substantially the junior half of his ticket.

For a more lively discussion how about an article about the relative ideological purity/coherence/consistency of the various potential runners for both parties. For my own money I'll stack up a Ron Paul/Alan Keyes ticket against pretty much any.

Chris Christie, Mitch Daniels, or even former Governor and Ambassador Huntsman would be interesting matchups of intelligent Republicans vs. President Obama.

John McCain had a solid base in the 2008 Republican primary that was perennially underestimated by pundits. The base consisted of all of the moderate Republicans who hated Bush - which was fairly sizable. Heck, it was enough to overrule the hardcore Christian Conservatives (who "hearted" Huckabee) and fiscal/social conservatives who rejected McCain (who went with Romney). The only one of those 3 2012 contenders I mentioned above with a similar devoted fanbase is Chris Christie, who has steadfastly and firmly vowed NOT to run for President in 2012. Huntsman or Daniels could catch fire and would be strong candidates, but I just don't see a clear path through the Republican primaries for either. The winner-take all system the Republicans employ strongly suggest that the "winner" will be whoever benefits the most from various groups splitting their votes between multiple candidates (Huckabee and Palin would cannibalize each other's vote shares, as would Romney and Daniels.)

McJacome, didn't he do an amazing impression of the classic Boston Brahmin Massachusetts-Pet-Republican Gubernatorial Candidate ? And then he starts spending all of his time out-of-state playing Yahoo for the Yahoos, talking down the state while he's still Governor. It wasn't my problem any more, but family and friends kept me well informed. I was impressed at his gall, and repelled by his character. There is, apparently, no there there.