Questions linger over Turkey's Mideast role

Questions are lingering over Turkey’s recent overtures to its troubled neighborhood, with some regional experts praising the Ankara government’s role in the Middle East while others challenge the wisdom of the Turkish foreign-policy drive.

Despite its huge efforts, Turkey has thus far failed to become a dominant actor on the regional scene, said Hazem Saghieh, a columnist for the pan-Arab newspaper al-Hayat.

Turkey is giving conflicting signals with its recent foreign-policy moves, Saghieh told the Hürriyet Daily News & Economic Review. “Sometimes it plays the Sunni card against the Shiite influence in the region but sometimes it plays the Syrian or Iranian card,” Saghieh said. “In fact, it is third-world populism. Whenever [Prime Minister Recep Tayyip] Erdoğan criticizes Israel, he gets praise from the Arab public, but soon after he is forgotten.”

Turkey’s role will be felt more in the future amid the changing balance of power in the region, said Professor Simon Haddad from the American University of Beirut. Praising the Ankara government as an “important player” in regional politics, Haddad said other countries would eventually have to take Turkey’s calls into consideration.

Voicing more of a cautious stance on Turkey’s influence on regional leaders, Elie Khoury, the international-affairs adviser for the Lebanese Forces Party, said it is too early to make any assumptions on regional politics as anti-government protests continue elsewhere around the Middle East and North Africa.

Still, Khoury said, Turkey has both the power and ability to play a major role in the region.

“I personally see Turkey as more advanced compared to other players who seek to have a regional role,” Khoury told the Daily News. “With its unique Islamic model, Turkey has real potential; it is now open to any voice and will move in many different directions.”

After pursuing a low-profile foreign policy that largely shunned its neighbors for years, Turkey has launched a campaign to boost both political and trade ties to the east and established strategic-level relationships with countries such as Iran, Syria, Lebanon and Sudan. Amid worsening ties with its longtime ally Israel, the Turkish government’s “zero problems with neighbors” policy has sparked fears in the West over a “shift in axis” toward the East. It has also contributed to anxiety in the East about a possible foreign intervention in intra-Arab politics.

It is impossible to have “zero problems” in a region like the Middle East, said columnist Saghieh, calling the policy formalized by Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu a “utopia” and adding that the Turkish government seems like it is “living in a fantasy world” regarding its abilities and limits in the region.

Changing balance

In addition to issuing harsh rhetoric against Turkey’s one-time strategic ally Israel, Prime Minister Erdoğan has also been adding his voice to the international calls on regional leaders for change amid ongoing protests against longtime rulers. After advising the former Egyptian president “to meet his people’s demands,” Erdoğan has warned other countries facing anti-government demonstrations to speed up their reform drives. His government also gave implicit support to the Western-led military operations in Libya.

Turkey’s ambitions to become more influential in the region could put it in a power struggle with another key actor, Iran, said Saghieh.

“If Turkey wants a regional role, I cannot see anything but a clash with Iran. Both countries are challenging each other,” the columnist said. “On the other hand, a joint Turkish-Egyptian effort could help create a better balance in the region to put some pressure on Israel as well as on radical Islamist groups.”