A Faltering Ruble, Long Lines and a Bomb Attack Rattle Belarus

MINSK, Belarus — The waiting list outside a currency exchange office at the Korona supermarket here had swelled to 52 people and many were getting desperate. Some had been waiting for three days, sleeping in cars, in an increasingly frantic effort to get dollars and euros.

This former Soviet republic is on edge. Prices are rising and the Belarus ruble, the national currency, is shedding value. Already some imported foodstuffs have begun to disappear from store shelves, people here in the capital say.

Though the extent of the current crisis is not yet clear, a sense of foreboding is spreading, compounded by the mysterious bombing last week at a subway station here that killed 13 people and wounded nearly 200.

The attack appears to have shaken confidence in Belarus’s longtime authoritarian president, Aleksandr G. Lukashenko, who claims to be the country’s sole guarantor of security and stability. Still, the latest economic travails could prove to be even more challenging.

In post-Soviet countries like Belarus, there are few starker indications of crisis than people waiting in lines, and the appearance of crowds gathered outside currency exchange offices has rekindled memories of shame and privation from the years just before and after the Soviet collapse in 1991.

Even before workmen had cleaned away the last rubble from the bomb’s destruction at the Oktyabrskaya subway station last week, an unmoving line had formed at a currency office just a short walk from the site of the attack.

“You remember the 1990s when people waited in line for bread,” said Maria Titova, 40, a housewife, who had been in line at the Korona supermarket for several hours. “Now we wait in line for dollars.”

The scramble for hard currency has been driven in part by fears of an impending devaluation of the Belarus ruble, which the government keeps at a fixed exchange rate. Yet even under normal circumstances people here favor foreign currency for major transactions.

Of all the former Communist bloc countries, Belarus has perhaps the closest resemblance to the Soviet Union. With its strong-arm president and robust security service — still called the K.G.B. — this country of 10 million is easily the most autocratic in Europe.

In nearly 17 years as president, Mr. Lukashenko has created a centrally planned economy based on the Soviet model, while stifling independent enterprise. Though his supporters credit him with sparing Belarus the wild economic fluctuations experienced in neighboring Russia and Ukraine, opponents say the system has created nothing but stagnation.

These days, Belarus is largely dependent on foreign handouts to stay afloat. Angered by apparent fraud in December’s presidential election and a sweeping crackdown on the opposition that followed, Western governments have imposed sanctions against Mr. Lukashenko and his government and all but cut off relations.

And now, Mr. Lukashenko’s two main donors, Russia and the European Union, seem to have deserted him.

Russia’s leaders, who have clashed frequently with Mr. Lukashenko in recent years, have said they are considering a $3 billion loan to help alleviate the current strains. But experts here say Russia will most likely demand painful concessions in return.

Meanwhile, Belarus’s foreign reserves have fallen by over $2 billion to just $3.7 billion from a high point last October, according to the International Monetary Fund.

The dwindling reserves prompted Standard & Poor’s to lower Belarus’s long-term foreign currency rating last month.

The Central Bank has now been forced to limit the availability of hard currency. Most of the dollars and euros still available can be purchased only on the black market at elevated exchange rates, people here say.

“I sell products calculated with a specific exchange rate, but now I cannot buy dollars at that rate because there are none,” said a cosmetics salesman named Oleg, who had spent the night in his car outside the Korona supermarket. “I am working in the red.”

The problems stem in large part from Mr. Lukashenko’s attempt to shore up support ahead of December’s presidential elections, economists said. He dipped into government coffers to raise salaries and pensions and increase subsidies for housing and key industries.

Despite the efforts, he was forced to commit widespread fraud to secure his victory, independent observers said, setting off a large antigovernment protest after polls closed.

Hundreds were arrested in a violent police crackdown, and dozens of opposition leaders now face up to 15 years in prison for organizing what Mr. Lukashenko has described as a coup attempt.

Economists, including researchers at the International Monetary Fund, have urged immediate action to curb spending. Yet, meaningful reforms like lowering salaries would be “politically unacceptable for the current authorities,” said Sergei Chaly, an independent economist in Minsk. “This would contradict all the pre-election rhetoric.”

Rather, Mr. Lukashenko has suggested that December’s protest, the country’s current economic problems, as well as the bombing last week were all part of a conspiracy to undermine his rule.

“Prior to the presidential elections, we foresaw attempts to squeeze us deliberately and methodically, as well as to destabilize the situation,” Mr. Lukashenko said last week.

“All this has happened: first on the currency market, then on the food market, followed by the blast in the metro. It is a whole chain,” he said.

He has played down the country’s economic problems and warned that anyone contributing to a perception of crisis would be punished.

“Any panic, in particular about foodstuffs and currency, must be curbed,” he said. “Those guilty of spreading slanderous fabrications will be held criminally responsible.”

Such threats have become common here, as have accusations from Mr. Lukashenko and other officials that Belarus’s beleaguered opposition, in collusion with Western governments, was responsible for the recent troubles.

It is unclear how many here believe such accusations, and support for Mr. Lukashenko is also difficult to gauge. Almost no independent media outside the Internet exist in Belarus, and unbiased, Web-based news agencies often suffer attacks by hackers.

A dearth of official information about the state of the economy has heightened speculation about what the authorities could be concealing, especially in the wake of the recent bombing.

Rumors that Mr. Lukashenko and his security services could have been behind the subway attack have flourished despite a lack of evidence to support them.

“The economic situation in the country is very difficult, prices for everything have risen and wages have stayed the same,” said Anna Osenenko, a 19-year-old student. “So this was carried out to deflect attention,” she said, referring to the bombing.

At the sprawling Komarovsky Market here, Mr. Lukashenko’s efforts to gloss over the seriousness of the country’s economic problems have done little to allay concerns among some food sellers.

“We’re living on the edge,” said a 43-year-old produce seller named Viktoria. “We have enough supply to last until the end of the week and then we’ll have to close.”