Africa

Baobab

  • Nigeria's elections

    The worry of Nigeria's election results

    Apr 20th 2011, 17:36 by O.A. | LONDON

    ANYONE who knows anything about Nigerian politics is aware of the split between north and south. The mainly Christian south has long been at odds with the predominantly Muslim north. Hoping to maintain peace in what can often be a violent country, elites from the two halves have shared power for the last 12 years by working out deals among themselves. The presidency and other posts are meant to rotate. But the successful out-of-turn candidacy of Goodluck Jonathan, a southerner, in elections on April 16th has exposed how glaring the rift is. Results show that he won near unanimous support in the south and failed to win a single state in the north. The unanimity within each of the two regions is stronger than had been apparent during the campaign. This is worrying. Mr Jonathan will have to try hard to convince northerners that they have at least some say in government. Otherwise a large (and disproportionately poor) part of the country could drift towards political extremism. The new president would do well to pin this map above his desk. If it hasn't changed by the time of the next election, he will have failed.

  • Violence in Nigeria

    Things turn nasty

    Apr 19th 2011, 11:06 by S.A. | LAGOS

    This post has been updated.

    PROTESTS broke out across Nigeria's mostly Muslim north on Monday, as results from the weekend's presidential election seemed almost certain to hand victory to the southern incumbent Goodluck Jonathan.

    Of the 39.5m votes cast, Mr Jonathan won 22.5m while General Muhammadu Buhari, a popular northerner and his main challenger, only picked up 12.2m, according to figures from the country’s 36 states which have since been confirmed by the national election commission. General Buhari's team has queried some of the results, especially those from some southern states where turnout was over 80%.

    As results trickled in on Sunday night, riots broke out in the remote north-eastern states. By Monday afternoon the trouble had spread to Kano and Kaduna, key northern business and political hubs that have lost their shine as the region has declined.

    In Kano, youths tried to burn down the home of a traditional Islamic ruler thought to be close to the ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP). In Kaduna, they set fire to the house of Namadi Sambo, the vice-president. Curfews have since been imposed in both of these states and several others.

    This month's presidential race has stoked long-existing faultlines in Africa's most populous nation, home to 150m people and over 250 ethnic groups. Mr Jonathan hails from the oil-rich and mostly Christian southern delta. General Buhari is an austere former military ruler from the Hausa ethnic group that dominates the north.

    Some northerners said the whole thing had been a dangerous misunderstanding. "These youths have only seen the huge turnout for Buhari in their neighbourhoods and they don't understand that that has not happened elsewhere," said Audu Grema, a development consultant living in Kano. The higher poverty and lower education levels that blight the landlocked north had perhaps caused just as much of the fury, he added.

    General Buhari did not call the protesters out, said Yinka Odumakin, the challenger's spokesman. "These people were just reacting to the situation." Both Mr Jonathan and General Buhari have appealed for calm.

    On Monday morning in Abuja, Nigeria's manicured capital, international observers had heaped praise on the presidential polls. These elections have been widely hailed as a great improvement on the series of violent and rigged polls that have kept the PDP in power for a dozen years. But the riots that were taking place at the same time, just a few hours' drive away, were a reminder that whoever wins the race will still have much work to do.

  • Nigeria's elections

    The votes are in

    Apr 17th 2011, 18:19 by The Economist Online

    ON SATURDAY April 16th Nigerians went on to the polls to elect a president. The first results from the 120,000 polling stations across the country suggest that Goodluck Jonathan, the incumbent, will be re-elected. He appears to have taken about twice as many votes as his nearest competitor. At least 30 out of 36 states have recorded results so far and Mr Jonathan reportedly won 20 of them. Nine went to Muhammadu Buhari, a former military ruler who has been his main challenger. The advantages of incumbency in the Nigerian political system are immense and observers were not surprised to see Mr Jonathan ahead. In recent months he has doles out vast amounts of public money to supporters. They now hope he will follow through on his campaign promises, including the reform of the power sector. Support for Mr Jonathan was strongest in the south of the country, from which he hails. Mr Buhari fared strongest in his home region in northern Nigeria.

    More important to watch than the results themselves will be the reports from independent election observers on whether the poll was credible. Nigeria has a history of fraudulent elections, mostly due to the machinations of Mr Jonathan's party. But the president made a concerted effort last year to make elections fairer, hoping to win a genuine mandate from the electorate to help him push through difficult reforms in the next four years. Before that, however, he may be forced into a run-off against Mr Buhari. He has to win a national majority of the vote plus a quarter of votes in two-thirds of Nigeria's states. He may well manage that. Full results are expected to trickle out in the next few days.

  • Cote d'Ivoire

    Waiting and hoping

    Apr 15th 2011, 19:24 by D.G. | ABIDJAN

    WE ARE in the cavernous entrance hall of the Hotel du Golf. Dozens of people, many in traditional African dress, sit around not doing very much. Some have been cooped up here with Alassane Ouattara for the past four months and now are waiting to go back to their towns and villages, as soon as it is safe. Others are hoping that they might be among the lucky few called to join the new president’s government. Yet others are just hanging around, with nothing better to do, wanting to be where the action is. In a corner, a soldier is selling (warm) bottled drinks from a crate. There is nothing else to eat or drink.

    Suddenly, the ubiquitous torpor is broken as the great man sweeps through with his guests, a delegation from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). Everyone rises to applaud him, shouting “Prési! Prési!” A slim handsome man, impeccably dressed in a well-tailored dark suit and looking far younger than his 69 years, he acknowledges their greeting with a regal wave, as befits the son of the late King of the Cong, a region in the north of Cote d’Ivoire, before disappearing to yet another meeting in the hotel. He is trying to put together a so-called “government of national unity”, including civil society representatives and members of Laurent Gbagbo’s party.

    The former president is no longer at the hotel, where he had first been taken after his surrender on Monday. He has been flown up to the presidential residence in the north of the country, where he is being “protected” by UN peacekeepers. But his wife, Simone, his reputed eminence grise, is said still to be here, along with dozens of Mr Gbagbo’s staff and aides, captured at the time of his arrest. Most are being held in the hotel bar. Shortly after Mr Ouattara’s departure, a bedraggled string of them are led out across the hall to the lavatories. Many are women. Some have recently treated wounds. They look forlorn, even somewhat dazed, but otherwise seem to be being correctly treated.

    Outside, the sun beats mercilessly down in the humid air. My transport has long since left, so I hitch a lift with a couple of Republican Force soldiers in a battered army jeep. The driver, who seems a lot more professional and on the ball than most of Mr Ouattara’s rag-tag army, tells me that he served for ten years in the government forces, before defecting to Mr Ouattara’s lot four months ago. Though claiming to be apolitical, he says he became disgusted at Mr Gbagbo’s attempt to hang on to power. “After the elections, it was the government troops that became the rebels,” he says.

    The whole army has now rallied to Mr Ouattara, its generals having surrendered almost a week before Mr Gbagbo himself finally threw in the towel. Among them is General Philippe Mangou, Mr Gbagbo’s former army chief of staff. He is now at the Hotel du Golf, helping put together a new united Ivorian army. Given a 63% vote for Mr Ouattara among the rank and file in government barracks in November’s presidential election, the task may not prove as difficult as it might seem. In Abidjan, everyone appears to be taking their president’s call for reconciliation and a ban on reprisals to heart. “The Ivorians are a peaceful people, you know,” my driver explains. But doesn’t almost every African country, which has suffered violent civil conflict, claim the same thing, only to experience a further spate of revenge killings and other atrocities? One can only hope Cote d’Ivoire will prove different.

    (Photo credit: AFP)

  • Cote d'Ivoire

    Abidjan after Gbagbo

    Apr 15th 2011, 16:10 by D.G. | ABIDJAN

    AT FIRST, they looked like piles of burnt rubbish by the roadside outside Laurent Gbagbo's bombed and now-deserted presidential palace in Abidjan—nothing unusual in this once-prosperous city which, after nearly two weeks of fierce fighting, looks even more like a giant rubbish dump than before. But then, among the cinders, we suddenly noticed the charred flesh still clinging to the straddled legs, the leering grin of the skull and the intolerable stench. There must have been half a dozen of them, all with bands of rusted wire around their necks, the remains of the tyres used to "necklace" them. All had been burnt alive. Who had done this to their own people? Did it matter any more when both sides had been guilty of similar atrocities?

    Inside the palace, perched on a hill overlooking the palm-fringed lagoon, soldiers of the rag-tag former rebel army of Alassane Ouattara, the new president, lounged around in the shade, their AK-47s lying idle at their sides, as curious passers-by (mostly journalists) sneaked in to examine the marbled splendour of what until recently had been one of Mr Ggagbo's two remaining strongholds. Apart from some damaged ceilings and a few broken windows, the whole place looked surprisingly intact. The occupants nevertheless looked as if they had left in a hurry. In the presidential guest-house, furnished with fake Louis XV furniture, many of the lights were on, the air-conditioning and telephones still working, and the crumpled beds with their duvets hastily thrown back only recently abandoned. Mr Ouattara says he plans to move in as soon as possible, perhaps before the end of the week.

    Although he sometimes spent the night here, this was never Mr Gbagbo's real home. The presidential residence was on the other side of town. It was there that he spent his last days of relative freedom, holed up in the cellar with his wife, children, grandchildren and mother, praying and singing and surprisingly calm, according to one fellow occupant, as the final battle raged around him. The half-empty bottle of 1945 French brandy, reportedly found in the bunker after he had left, may have helped too. It was after a second night of aerial bombardment by French and UN helicopter gunships, which partially destroyed the residence, that on Monday he finally decided to call it a day, sending his chief of staff out ahead of him, waving a white handkerchief. Perhaps this symbol of surrender wasn't noticed or perhaps it was ignored, but somehow the widely detested Gbagbo hardliner, Desiré Tangro was hit by a bullet, as Mr Ouattara's troops moved in to arrest the former president. He died in hospital the next day.

    Within spitting distance of the presidential residence is the run-down Hotel du Golf, where Mr Ouattara took refuge with his entourage after defeating Mr Gbagbo in the presidential elections last November. The main road linking the hotel to the city centre has been cleared of the last roadblocks, manned by Gbagbo youth militias, that kept the new president a virtual prisoner for over four months. But everywhere there are the signs of recent fighting: twisted carcasses of burnt-out cars, many riddled with bullets; abandoned piles of tyres, rubble and wood used to create barricades; remnants of clothing; a bloated fully-clothed corpse in the middle of the road, which no one has even bothered to pull to one side.

    The hotel itself is in a state of chaos, crammed with cars, soldiers in red berets, blue-helmeted peacekeepers (who have been protecting the hotel) and a variety of Ouattara hangers-on. Despite Mr Ouattara's presence, security seems lax. A sign points visitors to "Parking, Tennis, Plage (beach)", but the lagoon is too polluted for swimming and the tennis courts have been turned into temporary prisons. A couple of dozen youths, stripped to their ragged underwear, wander around disconsolately, complaining that they have been held there under the blazing sun, without any kind of bedding or sanitary facilities, for the past nine days after being arrested for breaking the curfew. Their guard says they were picked up as suspected Gbagbo militia members in the midst of the conflict.

    We have been touring the city in a UN bus, part of 53-vehicle UN "peace convoy" aimed at reassuring the residents that the fighting is over, that they can now come out of their houses and begin to resume their normal lives. Although there are signs of looting everywhere, almost none of the buildings has been touched. Most of the shops, cafes, banks and petrol stations remain shuttered, and there are still almost no private cars about, partly because of the shortage of petrol.

    But lots of pedestrians are now in the streets, selling French baguettes and fresh mangos from the metal basins balanced on their heads, heaving along great plastic containers of much-needed fresh water, or just chatting quietly in the shade. For many, it is the first time since the "battle for Abidjan" began a fortnight ago that they have ventured out. All cheer and wave delightedly as the convoy, looking more and more like a victory parade, sweeps by. The ever-cynical hacks assume we must have stuck to the pro-Ouattara areas, but it is good to see all the same. For the first time in months, not a single shot has been heard in the last 24 hours. The city is starting to breathe again.

  • The Horn of Africa

    Why the world should keep an eye on Djibouti

    Apr 13th 2011, 18:36 by C.H. | LONDON

    WITH the world's Africa-watchers distracted by bloody events in Libya and Côte d’Ivoire, and elections in giant and chaotic Nigeria, it's easy to forget about a presidential election in Djibouti. The tiny state in the Horn of Africa, wedged between Eritrea, Ethiopia and Somalia, has only 860,000 inhabitants. But Djibouti’s importance is underscored by the presence of 5,000 or so French and American troops, a legacy of its status as a former French colony (it won independence in 1977) and a current western ally in the wars against terror and piracy.

    Results from the election on April 8th were swift and predictable: President Ismail Guelleh of the People's Rally for Progress, who has ruled since 1999 (when he took over from his uncle), was re-elected by a landslide. According to Djibouti's electoral commission, around 80% of the votes were cast for Mr Guelleh, slightly down on the 100% he officially achieved in 2005. Turnout was also reported as high, with 70% of the 150,000 registered turning up to vote. Polling day itself was, according to most accounts, a serene affair by sub-Saharan African standards.

    Closer examination reveals a less serene picture. Mr Guelleh's victory came in the face of weak opposition with only one candidate, an independent, standing against him. Last year, he forced through constitutional changes to allow himself a third six-year term in office. Opposition groups had called for a boycott of the election after the suppression in February of Middle-East-inspired protests, partly provoked Djibouti's high rate of unemployment, in which two people were killed. In early March, the president kicked a team of international election observers out of the country.

    All sad, but should the world worry? Despotic behaviour is hardly unusual in Djibouti's neighbourhood. But as the presence of all those troops suggests, it should. Aly Verjee, one of the observers evicted in March, spells it out in an article in Foreign Policy:

    Djibouti matters. It matters a lot. As the forward operating base of U.S. Africa Command, Djibouti's Camp Lemonnier is a friendly piece of real estate in the Horn of Africa, which includes Eritrea, Somalia, and Yemen. Approximately 2,000 U.S. troops are based at Lemonnier, in addition to the naval forces that periodically call at the port of Djibouti. With the nearest friendly African port located in Mombasa, Kenya—1,700 miles away—the United States, NATO, and the European Union have no alternative to using Djibouti's harbor as a sanctuary to conduct anti-piracy operations. 

    Its unfettered cooperation on anti-piracy operations has endeared Djibouti to many other members of the international community. A score of countries—including Japan, Germany, and Russia—rely on the port of Djibouti to sustain their naval presence in East African waters. At the mouth of the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, Djibouti is strategically located to protect some of the world's busiest shipping lanes, which have become increasingly vulnerable to ever more ambitious pirates. And the problem is not going away.  Despite some success in disrupting "pirate action groups," as they are termed by the multinational forces, 14 ships have already been hijacked in the Gulf of Aden and Indian Ocean this year, according to figures from the International Maritime Bureau's Piracy Reporting Center.

    As the only US military toehold on the continent, Djibouti is also a vital link in the war on terror.  Unmanned anti-terrorism drones are deployed from Lemonnier against targets in the Arabian Peninsula and Somalia.

    With the likes of Human Rights Watch lining up to condemn Mr Guelleh, and after the collapse of friendly regimes in the Middle East, the West may want to take a bit more interest in the actions of one of its few allies in a no less volatile and equally vital region further south too. 

  • Cote d'Ivoire

    Gbagbo bagged

    Apr 12th 2011, 13:16 by S.A. | LAGOS

    ALASSANE OUATTARA, the internationally recognised president of Côte d'Ivoire, heralded a "new era of hope" for his fractured country after his rival, Laurent Gbagbo, was seized yesterday after an assault on his compound. The capture of Mr Gbagbo marks the end of a four-month standoff after last November's presidential election that descended into fierce fighting. But rebuilding the cocoa-rich country that was once a banking hub for west Africa will not be easy.

    Mr Gbagbo, who came to power in 2000 and clung on throughout a civil war that split north and south, has refused to step down as president since losing the presidential election. The Ivorian electoral commission and the UN have backed Mr Ouattara, a former deputy director of the IMF.  Mr Gbagbo has been holed up in the presidential palace during the conflict while Mr Ouattara has taken refuge at the Golf Hotel, both in the commercial capital Abidjan. Their supporters have fought across the country. Up to 1m Ivorians have fled the fighting.

    Mr Gbagbo's position has looked increasingly precarious since late March, when Mr Ouattara's supporters launched an offensive that swept towards Abidjan. France, the former colonial power, and the UN added their firepower to the battle for the coastal city. Some say these foreign forces overstepped the mark; others say the intervention was in keeping with a UN mandate to protect civilians.

    Mr Ouattara's first big task will be to rein in the security forces that were until yesterday under the command of his rival. "Gbagbo was not alone—he was backed by thousands in the security forces and very undisciplined militia men. These men are still armed and present throughout the city," cautions Corinne Dufka, a west Africa expert at Human Rights Watch, a lobby group. She fears an ongoing cycle of attacks unless disarmament takes place on both sides.

    The new president has vowed to set up a truth and reconciliation commission, of the sort used after other African conflicts, to investigate those involved in crimes and human-rights abuses during the recent fighting. But questions have already been raised over whether a commission would be impartial. Mr Ouattara's troops may have behaved as badly as their opponents; there are reports that they burned villages and raped and killed civilians as they swept towards Abidjan.

    In its heyday, Abidjan was hailed as the Paris of Africa. In recent weeks, aid groups have struggled to reach casualties or transport drugs due to fighting in the streets. Residents have been trapped in their homes, unable to buy food or drinking water. Mr Ouattara will have to work hard to return to those glory days.

  • Nigeria's elections

    A hopeful vote

    Apr 12th 2011, 10:25 by S.A. | LAGOS

    AS NIGERIANS vote in parliamentary, presidential and state governorship elections this month, they are hoping that this time might be different. The ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP) has kept a tight grip on all levels of government since the end of army rule in 1999. Flawed and violent polls have blighted Africa's most populous country during a dozen years of democracy.

    All that might be changing. In the corridors of power, the electoral commission has a new and respected head. On the streets, voters are trying to monitor polls themselves. The parliamentary vote on 9th April—the first of this election season—was widely viewed as an improvement on recent years. Voters in Lagos, the frenetic commercial capital, waited at their polling stations from dawn until dusk to watch ballots being counted and ensure there was no foul play. The PDP lost some key seats. But the real test will be the presidential election on 16th April.

  • Cote d'Ivoire

    Gbagbo refuses to budge

    Apr 6th 2011, 10:14 by D.G. | JOHANNESBURG

    [This post has been updated]

    HOPES for an early end to Côte d'Ivoire's civil war appeared to be dashed late on Tuesday night when Laurent Gbagbo declared on television that he has no intention of stepping down as president, despite the defection of most of his troops and the destruction of his artillery by UN and French forces. His announcement contradicted a claim by his official spokesman a few hours earlier that he was negotiating the terms of his departure, with France, the former colonial power, acting as an intermediary. This morning, however, the French army commander in the city said he expected it would be only "a matter of hours" before Mr Gbagbo, who has ruled the West African country with an iron fist for the past decade, gives himself up.

    On Tuesday afternoon the fighting that had rocked Abidjan, the main city, over the past few days came to a halt as negotiations began on the conditions for a permanent cease-fire. But this morning rebel forces started pounding the presidential palace again with heavy artillery following Mr Gbagbo's refusal to surrender voluntarily. By early afternoon they were said to be at the palace gates, but have been given strict orders not to harm the outgoing president if possible.

    Mr Gbagbo is believed to be holed up in the basement of the palace where he and his family and close aides have been living since losing the presidential election to Alassane Ouattara, a former deputy director of the IMF, last November. Despite repeated international pleas that he step down, Mr Gbagbo has refused to budge, causing the former rebel forces now backing Mr Ouattara to take up their arms again in a bid to oust him by force. Hundreds, perhaps thousands, of lives have already been lost. On Wednesday morning fighting broke out again as Mr Ouattara's troops launched a fierce attack on Mr Gbagbo's refuge. 

    France and the UN have come under criticism in some quarters for the key role their troops, equipped with helicopter gunships, played in the "final assault" on the presidential palace on Monday night. Some have even accused the French of staging a coup d'état. But Ban Ki-moon, the UN secretary-general, has defended the direct involvement of UN and French troops, claiming it was to protect civilians. Pro-Gbagbo forces had "intensified and escalated" the violence, he said, by using mortars, rocket-propelled grenades and machine-guns against ordinary Ivorians. They had also attacked the UN's headquarters in Abidjan, he said, wounding four peacekeepers. Neither France nor the UN is participating in the latest attack on the palace. 

    Speaking on behalf of the Elders, a group of former world leaders brought together by Nelson Mandela in 2007, Archbishop Desmond Tutu, the group's chairman and former head of South Africa's Peace and Reconciliation Commission, appealed to Côte d'Ivoire's incoming president to commit himself publicly to a similar process of accountability for atrocities Mr Tutu claimed had been committed by both sides. Mr Ouattara's actions and words over the coming days would be critical to the country's future, Mr Tutu said: "The people need reconciliation, not retaliation."

  • Cote d'Ivoire

    Ready to go

    Apr 5th 2011, 16:22 by D.G. | JOHANNESBURG

    THE end to Côte d'Ivoire's nightmare is in sight. Following an overnight "final assault" on the presidential palace in Abidjan, the commercial capital, Laurent Gbagbo is said to have agreed to step down as president. His official spokesman reported at around 3pm GMT today that Mr Gbagbo, who has ruled the country with a despotic hand for the past ten years, was negotiating the terms of his departure with France, the former colonial power, acting as an intermediary.

    Mr Gbagbo has been holed up in the presidential palace with his family and closest aides since losing presidential elections in November to his rival, Alassane Ouattara, a former deputy director of the IMF. Despite the proclamation of the results by the independent electoral commission, Mr Gbagbo insisted that there had been massive vote rigging in the northern half of the country, controlled for the past eight years by rebels backing Mr Ouattara, and got himself sworn in as president by a constitutional court packed with his men. But his claim was rejected by both the UN and the African Union.

    Despite repeated international pleas that he step down, he refused to budge. A few weeks ago, the increasingly impatient pro-Ouattara forces started clashing with government troops still nominally under the control of Mr Gbagbo, capturing several towns in the west and seizing control of Abidjan’s working-class district of Abobo. Hundreds, perhaps even thousands, of lives were lost in this initial skirmishing. But still Mr Gbagbo refused to go. A week ago the former rebel army, now calling itself the Republican Forces, started their descent on Abidjan, still the real seat of power, sweeping all before them in just a few days.

    But the final assault on the business capital met with fiercer resistance than they had expected. For four days and nights they slogged it out against Mr Gbagbo’s elite Republican Guard and Young Patriots youth militia, pounding the presidential palace with artillery and raking the city of 4m with gunfire. Looters, many of them armed, sought to take advantage of the chaos. But most people shut themselves up in their homes, not daring to go out, even to get food. Foreign embassies desperately sought to evacuate their staff and nationals under the protection of the UN and French troops stationed in the city. They are reported to have played a determinant role in the final battle.

    The role of General Philippe Mangou, Mr Gbagbo’s army chief of staff, in all this remains unclear. Last Wednesday it was reported that he and his family had sought refuge in the residence of the South African ambassador in Abidjan. Many assumed he had defected. But early yesterday it was announced that he had rejoined Mr Gbagbo's forces, having apparently merely taken shelter in the embassy during the assault on the city by the pro-Ouattara troops. Today he pops up again, this time to announce—before an official ceasefire had even been concluded—that all his troops had stopped fighting. It will be interesting to see if Mr Ouattara decides to keep him on.

  • Nigeria's elections

    A disappointing delay

    Apr 4th 2011, 15:28 by S.A. | LAGOS

    LESS than five hours after the start of parliamentary elections that many hoped would mark a break from a history of rigged polls, voting was called off in Nigeria on Saturday after it transpired that ballot papers and results sheets had failed to arrive in several states. Attahiru Jega, the head of Nigeria's election commission, has now postponed three consecutive weekends of voting by roughly one week: parliamentary polls will take place on April 9th, presidential elections on April 16th, and those for state governors ten days after that on April 26th.

    The delay is only slight. But it has dented the optimism of voters hoping at last to see a proper poll in Africa's most populous country, which has lurched between military coups and flawed or annulled elections during half a century of independence. "This delay is frustrating because the expectations of Nigerians are very high for this election", said Solomon Gbinigie, who spent Saturday morning queuing at a polling station in Lagos, the coastal commercial capital, to no avail. "This is the first time that we feel like we are looking at a fair election, so we want to vote."

    The high hopes are mostly based on Mr Jega, a respected academic who has repeatedly vowed to oversee proper polls since his appointment last year. His commission has spent $580m on replacing the bogus voters register used in the last polls in 2007 which included such names as Nelson Mandela and Mike Tyson. The presence of a growing group of young, tech-savvy Nigerians—who plan to monitor the polls themselves armed with Blackberries and Twitter feeds—has added to a sense that change is in the air.

    Mr Jega blamed the setback on an unnamed supplier who failed to deliver voting materials on time. Some condemned his poor planning. But many observers said the postponement was actually a sign that Mr Jega was sticking to his standards, rather than simply pushing through a chaotic poll. Many others would have just gone ahead with the election and said nothing, said Hussaini Abdu, the director of Nigeria's chapter of Action Aid, which is a member of a local coalition of observers.

    But some opposition parties were suspicious. They saw the no-show of ballot papers as evidence of sabotage, though they have accepted the postponed poll dates. Their claims could heighten some voters' animosity towards the ruling People's Democratic Party, which has won three elections marred by fraud since the last spell of army rule ended in 1999.

    Goodluck Jonathan, the incumbent president and PDP candidate, has appealed for calm. As he waited to vote on Saturday in Nigeria's oil-rich southern delta, where he hails from, Mr Jonathan was one of the tens of millions of voters on Mr Jega's expensive new list who couldn't get their hands on a ballot paper.

  • Conflict in Cote d'Ivoire

    Ouattara advances

    Apr 1st 2011, 11:12 by D.G. | JOHANNESBURG

    THE battle for Abidjan has begun. Troops loyal to Alassane Ouattara, the internationally recognised president of Côte d’Ivoire, entered the country's business capital last night and have surrounded the presidential palace, in the upmarket Cocody district in the heart of the city, where Laurent Gbagbo has been holed up since losing the presidential elections three months ago. They had already seized Yamoussoukro, the new administrative capital to the north, and San Pedro, the main cocoa-exporting port of the world’s biggest cocoa producer. They have also taken over the state broadcaster.

    There are rumours that Mr Gbagbo may have fled the palace with his family in the early hours of this morning. But, speaking from a cellar in the British Embassy near the palace this morning, where he and his staff have taken refuge, Colin Wells, Britain's acting ambassador, said that the fighting had been so fierce that he very much doubted that anyone could have got out. The booming of mortar fire could be heard over the line as he spoke, before it went dead. A spokesman for Mr Gbagbo told the BBC's World Service that his boss would not give up: "We are going to put up a fight." Mr Ouattara's spokesman said the earlier offer for Mr Gbagbo to go peacefully was no longer on the table.

    The former president is being valiantly defended by his Republican Guard and mercenaries, the only forces left loyal to him. Most of the rest of the government troops have joined the former rebel Republican Forces now backing Mr Ouattara, following the defection of the army's chief-of-staff, General Phillippe Mangou. He and his family took refuge in the South African embassy yesterday. Blé Goudé, Mr Gbagbo’s youth minister and leader of the Young Patriot youth militia, is also reported to have sought refuge—with the UN.

    All flights in and out of Abidjan have been cancelled. UN peacekeepers and French troops stationed in the former French colony are patrolling the now near-deserted streets in an attempt to keep some kind of order. But where the fighting is not going on, looters have taken over, terrorising the city's inhabitants. The French have evacuated about 500 foreigners, including 150 of their own nationals, to a military camp. One Swedish woman who works for the UN has been killed, apparently by a stray bullet.

    Update: Mr Ouattara has apparently ordered that air borders be re-opened, though land and sea borders remained sealed.

  • Cote d'Ivoire

    Closing in

    Mar 31st 2011, 13:10 by D.G. | JOHANNESBURG

    THE UN Security Council has heeded Alassane Ouattara's appeal for greater protection for Ivorian citizens following a mortar attack by pro-Gbagbo forces on a crowded market in the Abobo district of Abidjan, the business capital, on March 18th. Twenty five people, including women and children, were killed and more than 60 injured. On March 30th, the Security Council passed a unanimous resolution permitting some 9,000 UN peacekeeping troops stationed in the West African country to use "all necessary means" to protect civilians under imminent risk of violence. Hitherto they have had the right to use force only in situations of self-defence.

    The UN estimates that around 500 people, most of them civilians, have been killed and up to 1m forced to flee their homes in fighting between forces loyal to Laurent Gbagbo, the defeated president, and former rebel forces backing Mr Ouattara, the internationally recognised winner of November’s presidential elections. The UN, African Union and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) have all called on Mr Gbagbo to step down. He refuses to accept defeat, claiming that the vote in the rebel-held north of the country was rigged. 

    But power is slipping away from him. Today, March 31st, South Africa announced that his army chief of staff, General Phillipe Mangou, had taken refuge with his wife and five children in the South African embassy in Abidjan. Although it had long been rumoured that he might defect, this will come as a big psychological blow to the remaining "government" forces. Many have already defected. It was considered only a matter of time before they joined the pro-Ouattara Republic Forces, as the former rebel New Forces now like to be known.

    Yesterday’s UN resolution also imposed financial and travel restrictions on Mr Gbagbo, his wife, Simone, regarded as the power behind the throne, along with three of his closest associates. But these are unlikely to persuade him to go. Having refused to listen to anyone over the past four months, he is expected to remain holed up in the presidential palace in Abidjan until the bitter end. 

    That may not be far away. Over the past couple of weeks, the pro-Ouattara Republican Forces have chalked up some significant victories in the previously government-controlled south of the country, seizing six strategic towns. Yesterday they announced the fall of Yamoussoukro, the new administrative capital 230kms north of Abidjan, after simply walking into the city hours after government troops and police had fled. Cheering residents are reported to have come out onto the streets to welcome them. The capture of Abidjan, still the main seat of power, is likely to be a lot bloodier.

     

  • The Horn of Africa

    Badlands redux

    Mar 30th 2011, 14:45 by J.L. | NAIROBI

    A FEW years ago Baobab traversed the badlands separating Kenya, Ethiopia and Somalia. Following up on that story this week to investigate claims that Kenyan armed forces have attacked the al-Qaeda-linked Shabab militia inside Somalia, Baobab was struck by how little had changed. There are rather more displaced people than in 2006, little progress on education. The main advance has been in brutal Islamism, piracy and organised crime. The port of Bossaso continues to grow, but hunger is rife. A persistent drought has pushed up the price of wheat and other staples. Failure of the seasonal rains expected in the next weeks would be unthinkable.

  • The ICC and Kenya

    An arm-wrestle for justice

    Mar 22nd 2011, 17:16 by J.L. | DAR ES SALAAM

    FROM afar, the involvement of the International Criminal Court (ICC) in Kenya might look minute and provincial. In the context of Libya and Egypt, who really has time to concern themselves with the fate of six senior Kenyans wanted in The Hague to face charges of crimes against humanity following the country's disputed 2007 election? True, some 1,200 Kenyans died and 300,000 were displaced, but does that measure up against the slaughter in northern Uganda, in Darfur, in Congo?

    It does. Baobab would argue that the future of humanitarian law and of the ICC as an effective supranational body depends on the Kenyan case. The ICC's chief prosecutor, a flamboyant Argentine, Luis Moreno-Ocampo, has staked the court's credibility on getting Kenya to hand over the suspects by next month. In the meantime, he has requested that Kenya remove one of the suspects, Francis Muthaura (pictured), the head of the civil service, from chairing national security meetings. There is little chance of that while Mr Muthaura has the backing of President Mwai Kibaki. Outwardly, Mr Kibaki supports the ICC. "The government wishes to inform the world that we understand, appreciate and respect the Rome Statute, the rights enshrined by the United Nations and the ICC process," says the president's spokesperson, Alfred Mutua. But privately Mr Kibaki is strongly opposed to letting "his boys go". Mr Kibaki speaks for one side of a coalition government. The other side, headed by Prime Minister Raila Odinga, is fully supportive of the ICC. So too are the country's leading churchmen and human-rights activists.

    Kenya faces arm-wrestling between a distant judiciary, that enjoys lukewarm diplomatic backing, and an unfaltering inner circle around Mr Muthaura, which includes intelligence officers, generals, civil servants and wealthy businessmen. As a result, the ICC risks embarrassment or even failure, regardless of popular support for its prosecutions. That would make it harder for the court to bring prosecutions elsewhere. And in Kenya there is a danger of more violence and instability in next year's elections.

  • Drug-smuggling

    The classic car-boot story

    Mar 22nd 2011, 13:40 by J.L. | DAR ES SALAAM

    THERE are plenty of departure-lounge stories in Africa that could get you deported. Then there are what Baobab calls car-boot stories, the publication of which might result in a shot in the back of the head at night in some isolated spot and an unexpected meal of filet de hack for a hyena. Baobab has skirted around several car-boot stories in recent years including extrajudicial killings by police, money received by generals for non-existent soldiers and weapons, and gold and platinum vanished from central banks. But the classic car-boot story is drug-smuggling. Drug cartels are colluding with the state in west and east Africa to transport drugs into Europe. More significantly, large amounts of drug money are being laundered in Africa through opaque investments in stockholdings and property.

    Since this Baobab, in years hence, has ambitions to wade into a river in the Outer Hebrides and catch a sea trout and to sail the African bit of the Indian Ocean, then as things stand an investigative piece is not likely to happen. But a report issued this month by the International Narcotics Control Board (INCB) touches on some of the broad themes.

    Cocaine is being transported to Europe through west African countries in larger quantities than ever. According to intelligence sources at least 20% of the cocaine in Europe has come through west Africa. Much of it makes landfall in Guinea-Bissau, brought by fast boat and plane from the Caribbean. Other landings are made in Liberia, the Gambia, Guinea and Senegal. A lot of cocaine ends up in Nigeria. Some is bought by plush locals. Far more is trafficked to Europe aboard commercial flights. A Nigerian politician was arrested last year with two kilos of cocaine packed in condoms in his stomach as he prepared to fly out of the country. Another route is through the Sahara directly to Italy.

    Unrest in Libya is likely being exploited by cartels to move in large shipments of drugs. A lot of this will be heroin coming from east Africa. The INCB estimates that 15 tonnes of heroin is smuggled into Europe each year from east Africa. Some of it is taken by air crews and passengers on commercial flights. The bulk is believed to be hidden in the holds of cargo planes flying roses from Addis Ababa, Nairobi and Arusha airports.

  • Madagascar's politics

    A coup-maker turns president

    Mar 18th 2011, 11:33 by D.G. | JOHANNESBURG

    TWO years after a military coup in Madagascar, condemned by the world, that brought André Rajoelina to power, the boyish former disc jockey has been confirmed as the Indian-Ocean island's president by the very group that had threatened to oust him by force, if necessary. Coups obviously pay.

    Under a "roadmap out of the crisis", proposed by the Southern African Development Community (SADC), a regional club of 15 members, and initialled by 11 Malagasy political groups last week, Mr Rajoelina will remain as the country’s leader, at the head of a new transitional power-sharing government, until free, internationally monitored, democratic elections can be held later this year.

    Mr Rajoelina’s first move has not been encouraging. Instead of the new "consensus" prime minister called for under the roadmap, he has simply re-appointed Brigadier-General Camille Vital, who has held the position since December 2009. Having carefully considered nominations from all the other parties, he believed Mr Vital to be the best choice, he said. One of the main opposition groups has dismissed the appointment as a "farce".

    Speaking on behalf of two former Malagasy presidents, Marc Ravalomanana, the ousted president, now living in South Africa, said SADC’s mediation efforts had clearly failed. Its mediators, led by Joaquim Chissano, former president of Mozambique, could now be seen as supporting an illegal regime, he said. Mr Ravalomanana called on SADC leaders, meeting later this month, to intervene "as a matter of great urgency". They are unlikely to do so.

  • Nigeria's elections

    A convert to democracy

    Mar 18th 2011, 7:55 by S.A. | LAGOS

    ON NEW Year’s Eve in 1983, General Muhammadu Buhari seized power in Nigeria in a military coup. A series of counter-coups would leave the country under army rule until the sudden death of the last dictator fifteen years later.

    General Buhari’s rule is best known for his "war on indiscipline," which aimed to stop officials from embezzling the state’s vast oil venues and bring order to a chaotic society. He had looting politicians jailed, drug traffickers executed and strikes banned. Elections were jettisoned.

    These days, however, General Buhari seems more comfortable with the ballot box. Aged 68, he is running for president in April with the opposition Congress for Progressive Change (CPC). He faces a tough battle to unseat Goodluck Jonathan, the incumbent, whose People’s Democratic Party (PDP) has been in power since the return to civilian rule in 1999.

    Some Nigerians say the austere General Buhari could be just what their country needs. Graft and disorder persist in Africa’s biggest oil and gas producer. He is particularly popular in the mostly Muslim northern states, where he hails from.

    Baobab met General Buhari at his residence in Abuja, the capital. Wearing a simple white caftan and a traditional fez-style cap, he discussed his past and the upcoming polls.

    Baobab: Some Nigerians are wary of voting for a one-time strict military ruler. How do you defend your past to your critics?

    Muhammadu Buhari: Whether I was strict under military rule, or whether I am docile under the democratic system, is dictated by the system itself. I just try to operate in the system in which I find myself...I feel very strongly about certain issues—indiscipline and corruption—so people say I have been harsh and uncompromising...But, if you read the law, you will see that Nigerian law does not accept corruption. Why should someone be accused of being strict if he maintains fighting corruption?

    Baobab: Many Nigerians remember your 1980s regime for its attempts to stamp out government corruption. Thirty years on, how is Nigeria doing on this front?

    MB: It's even worse. We used to have a Nigerian shipping line, Nigerian airways, Nigerian railways, and better roads...If you look at what the state has earned over the last 12 years, versus the state of our infrastructure, then it will hit you how wasteful and corrupt the ruling party has been...It’s worse than not being productive; it’s destructive.

    Baobab: You unsuccessfully ran for president against the PDP in previous elections in 2003 and 2007. Why are you confident this time?

    MB: In 2003, we were rigged out and we were in court for 13 months. Again, in 2007, by the observation of international teams and our own local teams, it was a non-election. I was in court for 20 months...But this year we have a change in INEC [Nigeria’s electoral commission]. The new chairman is a man of personal and professional integrity. We are also sending a clear message to INEC that we will not accept rigging. We are mobilising people to defend their votes. 

    Baobab: Do you regret any of your strict decrees as a military ruler—such as executing drug traffickers and banning strikes unless all negotiations had been exhausted?

    MB: I don’t believe those measures were too harsh at the time we took them, and in the context of the stability of our country...[drug traffickers] destroy our society and they want to destroy others' societies. We didn’t need that and we executed them...Our economy could not afford those wildcat strikes. So we stopped them...We did those things for the good of the economy and the country.

    Baobab: Are you now a convert to democracy?

    MB: Yes, but don’t forget that since we started this democracy 12 years ago, it hasn't really worked as a democracy. But that doesn't mean it can't work. The CPC is here to make democracy work...I don’t believe [anything else] is acceptable anymore to ordinary people. Nigerians have got the message after seeing what is happening in north Africa and the Middle East.

  • Correspondent's diary

    The final push

    Mar 14th 2011, 18:19 by D.G. | ABIDJAN

    "THIS," said Adou, lifting a glass of sparkling pale-golden liquid lovingly, "is a Pol Roger, the champagne Churchill used to drink in his bath every morning during the war. He greatly admired the owner's sister, Odette, you know. They remained life-long friends." Thus began an extraordinary afternoon, filled with anecdotes, in a back room of Adou's restaurant in Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire's commercial capital. Over the course of a few hours no less than five bottles of suberb Bordeaux Grands Crus were cracked open as Ivorian politicians of all hues came and went under the improbable gaze of Alain Juppé. Mr Juppé, the mayor of Bordeaux, is both the newly appointed foreign minister of France, Côte d’Ivoire's former colonial power and one of Adou's many friends.

    Adou, a small cultured man with a gentle, dimpled smile, has run his restaurant in Treichville, an ethnically and religiously mixed neighbourhood, for the past 34 years—said to be a record for any Ivorian business. Here, in the midst successive attempted coups and violent political upheavals, he serenely holds court, prudently adapting his views to those of his politically varied patrons. African cuisine is washed down by the best French wines from his extraordinary 26,000-bottle "cave" (in fact an air-conditioned stronghold), which includes such fabled names as Petrus, Margaux and Haut Brion, costing 3,000 euros or more a bottle.

    A few days ago, four people in Treichville, just across the lagoon from Abidjan's city centre, were killed in a sudden and unexplained upsurge of violence. But today, all is calm under the merciless sun. The streets, usually packed on a Sunday, are almost empty, as the various youth militias take shelter behind their improvised sand-bagged defences and barricades. It is soon clear that Adou’s first visitors, who include a distinguished-looking former minister under Côte d’Ivoire’s first president, Félix Houphouët-Boigny, are both supporters of Alessane Ouattara, the internationally recognised winner of November's presidential elections.

    They are hoping for a quick end to the three-month crisis now that their man has given official blessing as the country's new leader by the African Union's (AU) peace and security council in Addis Ababa. But, holed up in the presidential palace in Abidjan, Laurent Gbagbo, the country’s dictatorial president for the past ten years, has furiously rejected the AU's demand that he step down, continuing to cling ever more tenuously to power, surrounded by his loyal Republican Guard and youth militias. He can no longer trust anyone else. Adou’s guests confirm what others have already told me—that most of the armed forces have given up on the former president. Many are now simply waiting for a signal from Mr Ouattara to change sides and join his Republican Forces, the new name for the Nouvelles Forces, the former rebel army, to begin the "final push".

    When will that signal come? Soon, soon, Mr Ouattara's backers cry in unison. It must be soon because people are beginning to suffer economically as well as from the violence. Banks have been closed for a month. People are running out of cash, the only means now to buy food or pay their employees. Western sanctions are beginning to bite. Supplies of cooking gas have already run out and there are fears that the same will happen soon to petrol. Meanwhile people continue to wait, with fear in their hearts, for that final push. It may already have begun. Fierce fighting was reported in the Yopougon district of Abidjan over Sunday night. After a sortie to Addis Ababa for last week’s AU meeting, followed by brief visits to Nigeria and Burkina Faso to drum up support there, Mr Ouattara is back in the country. He has promised to address the nation on his own television channel from the Hotel du Golf on Tuesday night.

    Three Grands Crus down the line, Adou’s two pro-Ouattara guests are replaced by three senior Gbagbo supporters. The atmosphere changes. Behind their smiling defiant façade, is a nasty undercurrent of anti-Western aggression. The former white colonial powers, with which the UN is also identified, are to blame for everything. They are now trying to asphyxiate the economy, they say. The AU, too, has apparently sold out to the West in return for great dollops of money. But the "president" has everything in hand, they insist. The armed forces are 100% behind him. There is no liquidity crisis. The ports (where business has come to a virtual standstill) are still busy. The oil refinery (which has completely closed down) continues to operate. The country is calm. The only remaining problem is how to get rid of Mr Ouattara.

    Do they really believe all this guff? Some of Mr Gbagbo’s supporters certainly do. State television and radio, Ivorians' main source of news, continue to beam the most incredible nonsense into people’s homes. The Constitutional Council (packed with Mr Gbagbo's men) ruled that the incumbent president won the election with 51% of the vote, they are repeatedly reminded. Atrocities, such as the recent massacre of seven women in Abobo, a northern suburb of Abidjan, are the work of "rebels", not government forces. Endless undated pictures of happy Ivorians apparently demonstrating in support of Mr Gbagbo are broadcast. Other pictures are shown of equally happy-looking civil servants and old-age pensioners, who the government claims to have paid in full (for February), despite most of its funds being frozen in the CFA-region central bank in Dakar, the Senegalese capital.

    After five hours of drinking, I decide it is time to return to my hotel, leaving my host to continue his discussions with greater liberty. Outside, dusk is fast gathering in the still quiet streets. Hoards of bats cut through the mosquito-infested humid air. The city’s lights reflect back from the lagoon. All anyone can do now is wait—wait for Mr Ouattara’s call and the final push. Some say it will be a doddle, all but a handful of generals and die-hards having already swung behind the new president. Others expect a lot of violence, especially in Abidjan. It is not just Côte d’Ivoire’s fate, but that of democratic progress in the whole of Africa, that hangs in the balance.

  • Correspondent's diary

    Paradise lost

    Mar 11th 2011, 17:44 by D.G. | ABIDJAN

    ALL the talk, now, is how to get out "when the time comes". Everyone is making contingency plans, from the humblest shoe-shine boy to the grandest diplomat. Many have already sent their wives and children away. Those who can afford it have gone abroad. The rest have fled to their home villages in the country, where they hope at least to be able to get something to eat and, with luck, avoid the violence. Few have any doubt that it will get worse before it gets better. The end could come quickly now.

    Some fear a bloodbath, perhaps before the end of this month, as the supporters of Alessane Ouattara and Laurent Gbagbo, each of whom claim to be the legitimate president of Côte d’Ivoire, slug it out among themselves, backed by the New Forces, the former rebel army now backing Mr Ouattara, and whatever of the government forces remain loyal to Mr Gbagbo, the defeated former president, who continues to cling to power.

    For the past couple of months, foreign embassies have been warning their nationals against coming the country or, if already here, to leave promptly, before all possible exit routes are sealed. If they insist on staying, as many are, particularly those married to Ivorian nationals, they are being advised to stock up with several days of food and water. Long queues are already forming for cooking gas, as supplies begin to dry up. Petrol is expected to run out too. The prudent, especially taxi-drivers, keep their tanks topped up in preparation for a potential hurried escape.

    Since the closure of all the banks a couple of weeks ago, cash, too, has become scarce. Even the big hotels are now demanding payment in cash. When I tried to change my booking with Kenya Airways, the national airline, they also refused a credit card. Even basic services, such as electricity and water, have to be paid for in person, with fistfuls of money. Those with cars and foreign accounts have been popping over the border into Liberia or Ghana to stock up on cash. Others have been flying in from abroad with suitcases literally stuffed with the stuff, or asking friends and relatives to do so. For those without access to ready money, life will soon become very difficult indeed. And that will cause anger and revolt—among both Ouattara and Gbagbo supporters.

    In one of Côte d’Ivoire’s independent newspapers yesterday, Vincent Tohbi Irié, a respected former Ivorian ambassador to Paris and a self-professed supporter of Mr Ouattara, warned the internationally accepted winner of November’s presidential elections, that his backers’ patience was "not limitless". Many Ivorians had decided to support him, Mr Irié said—sometimes at the cost of their own lives—to champion the ideals of justice, liberty, equality and democracy. But the country was still in crisis. "If you are not the solution," Mr Irié warned the new, but impotent, president, "you could become the problem for us…If you don’t get Gbagbo to go soon, it’s you who must go. You must liberate us from yourself, or we shall do so."

    The sudden upsurge in violence last weekend in Abidjan, the commercial capital, has died down again. No one knows why. No one knows who the perpetrators are. They carry no uniform and bear no insignia. But the tension is palpable. Everyone is afraid. A motorbike backfires and everyone jumps. A meeting of the African Union’s Peace and Security is took place in Addis Ababa, the Ethiopian capital and the regional organisation’s headquarters yesterday. They reaffirmed Mr Ouattara as the legitimate president but far from ending the crisis, this is expected to ratchet it up a further notch or two.

    On the verandah of a western ambassador’s residence, a white rabbit flops down exhausted under armchair as the large overhead fans turn the torpid air. Ice-cold drinks are brought out by a white-suited servant. The cool green of the garden, filled with tropical plants and exotic birds, looks out over the distant lagoon. Everything is calm. The evening air begins to fill with hum of crickets. It could be paradise…  

    Read on: This is day three of a three-day diary. Return to day one or day two.

  • Correspondent's diary

    Grinding to a halt

    Mar 9th 2011, 19:10 by D.G. | ABIDJAN

    THE post-electoral upsurge in violence in Côte d’Ivoire has ruined the former French colony’s tourist trade. Already the Ibis, one of the four big hotels in Abidjan, the business and administrative capital, has been forced to close on account of a dearth of bookings. Another, the Novotel, is considering doing so after laying off half its staff. Those remaining are working part-time. A third has guests in only three of its rooms. But the 300-room Hotel du Golf on the palm-fringed Ebrié lagoon, a five-minute helicopter hop from the city centre, boasts the highest occupancy rate in west Africa—a steady 100% for the past three months. For it has become the redoubt of Alassane Ouattara, the UN-certified winner of November’s presidential election, which Laurent Gbagbo continues to contest, insisting that he is still the president.

    It is here that Mr Ouattara, his ministers and other staff are holed up, protected by some 800 UN blue-helmets. UN helicopters, which keep the hotel stocked with food and other supplies, are now the only way in and out of the hotel. All the access roads have been blocked by Gbagbo loyalists. It is a suffocating existence, but today everyone is happy. They believe the end to the crisis may be in sight. Mr Ouattara and Mr Gbagbo have been "invited" (read "summoned") to the Ethiopian capital of Addis Ababa on Thursday (March 10th) by the African Union’s Peace and Security Council. Mr Ouattara has already left. His aides claim to have it on good authority that the AU will formally proclaim him president and demand that Mr Gbagbo go—or else.

    Or else what? No one is willing to say, or even knows. Given that Mr Gbagbo has so far refused calls by the UN and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) to step down, he seems unlikely to do so now. He has refused to go to Addis Ababa. (As I write, a volley of gun-fire rings out from across the lagoon, near Abidjan’s cultural centre, opposite my hotel—a reminder that all is not as peaceful as it sometimes seems, even in Abidjan’s business and financial centre.) Mr Ouattara’s aides claim that "more than 75%" of the army, supposedly still under Mr Gbagbo’s control, have "defected" (presumably mentally, rather than actually physically) and that it is just a question of time before the Forces Nouvelles (FN), the former rebel forces now backing Mr Ouattara, descend from their stronghold in the mainly Muslim north and take Abidjan. Several towns in the west of the country, traditionally loyal to Mr Gbagbo, have already fallen in fierce fighting between government forces and the FN over the past few days.

    Ivorians dispute whether the country is heading for a civil war or is already in the midst of one. The question may soon become academic if the "cash crunch" advances as rapidly as it seems to be doing. Mr Gbagbo’s parallel "government" is already virtually bankrupt. Most of its funds are blocked in the central bank of the eight Central African Franc countries in Dakar, the Senegalese capital, which has cut off all relations with the Côte d’Ivoire. All the foreign banks in the country have likewise closed down their operations, stopping the funds of both the government and private individuals. It is no longer possible to make payments by cheque, bank transfer or credit card. Côte d’Ivoire become a cash-only economy and sooner or later that cash will run out.

    On Monday, thousands of civil servants could be seen queuing under the hot sun at branches of the two state-owned banks that remain open, hoping to lay their hands on their February salaries, as Mr Gbagbo had promised. His government’s official newspaper proclaimed proudly yesterday that 62% of the state’s 100,000-plus employees had been able to do so. But what about the other 38%? How are they going to live? And what about this month’s salaries? Who is going to pay them? Mr Gbagbo announced yesterday that he had "nationalised" the cocoa and coffee industries, the mainstays of the country’s economy. It is an act of bravado, designed to calm the "ignorant masses", as snooty Ivorians refer to them. EU and US sanctions mean that European countries and America will not buy the stuff themselves nor are EU- or American-registered vessels allowed to carry it.

    Mr Ouattara’s call to his fellow citizens to starve Mr Gbagbo’s government of funds by refusing to pay their taxes has become redundant. No one has the wherewithal to pay even if they wanted to. People are having shell out for their electricity and water in hard cash. Employers are unable to play their suppliers or their employees. Chemists and hospitals are beginning to run out of drugs for want of ready cash. The country’s oil refinery has come to a virtual halt because sanctions are preventing crude from coming in. Most of the schools and universities are closed. For the moment, the open-air markets are full, but those too will be forced to close once the flow of cash dries up. Côte d’Ivoire is grinding to a halt as the two political protagonists, both with almost identical programmes, continue to slug it out.

    It seems almost obscene, this battle for personal power, as hundreds die, with perhaps many more hundreds of deaths to come. Yet the principle is important. Too often in Africa, the incumbent Big Man has been allowed to cling on to power after being defeated in reasonably fair democratic elections. As Kofi Annan, a Ghanaian former UN secretary general said last month, if Mr Gbagbo is allowed to prevail, "elections as an instrument of peaceful political change in Africa will suffer a serious setback."

    Read on: This is day two of a three-day diary. Continue on to day three, or return to day one.

  • Correspondent's diary

    Arriving in Abidjan

    Mar 7th 2011, 19:22 by D.G. | ABIDJAN

    AS YOU get off the plane at Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire’s former capital, the first thing to hit you is the heat—heavy, humid, odorous. The next is the filth. It is everywhere, from the rubbish-infested slums that line the road into the city from the airport to the most fashionable district of Cocody, where most of the ambassadors hang out and where, more than three months after the polls that saw Alassane Ouattara elected head of state, his rival ex-president Laurent Gbagbo, continues to occupy the presidential palace.

    The ubiquitous detritus has nothing to do with the latest upsurge in the violence that many fear will develop into civil war and some say already has. It is simply that the private rubbish removal companies are no longer doing their work. It has been like this for the past decade. In the 1960s and 1970s, the former French colony was the economic powerhouse of West Africa through its production of coffee and cocoa. But in the 1980s, following the first great oil shock and a series of droughts, it went into economic decline. It has never recovered from the social and political turmoil that followed.

    Approaching the city centre from the airport, one can easily imagine the former sophisticated prosperity of what is still the country’s business and administrative capital. A clump of elegant sky-scrapers rise up from the palm-fringed shores of the now heavily polluted lagoon. On closer inspection, however, they look decidedly scruffy and down-at-heel, surrounded by deeply potholed, rubbish-strewn streets. It doesn’t help that today is a Sunday, so the usual bustle of hawkers, pedestrians and cars that enliven the empty drabness are missing. "Everything has gone to the dogs," my driver sighs. "At the moment, people are afraid to go out."

    The past week has been particularly violent following a call by Mr Ouattara, holed up at the Hotel du Golf on the far side of town, to his supporters for an "Egyptian-style revolution". In the northern working-class suburb of Abobo, home to around 1.5m people of mixed ethnic groups, religions and political affiliations, dozens have been killed as pro-Ouattara and pro-Gbagbo youth militias slug it out, erecting barricades, burning cars, looting shops, torching houses and attacking anyone suspected of not supporting their particular side. Pro-Gbagbo police and troops, sent in supposedly to restore order, have exacerbated the situation, often using live ammunition and heavy artillery to fire on peaceful demonstrators. Thousands have fled their homes in terror.

    I chance upon a taxi-driver, Matthias, who lives in Abobo and agrees to take me in. He has not dared go home for the past week, he says, but his brother has assured him that today everything is calm. The fighting comes and goes, he explains, as tensions rise and fall in response to the political situation. We drive along a tarred road, lined with rough wooden or corrugated-iron shacks, selling everything from sofas and car spare parts to mangos, hard-boiled eggs and cell-phone time. Although trade has resumed, it is slack. Scorch marks on the road, burn-out cars and the piles of tyres and broken wooden stands of hastily removed barricades bear witness to the recent fighting. But the corpses, which had lain rotting for days, are now thankfully gone. "A few days ago, you couldn’t get along these streets," Matthias marvels: "They were all blocked."

    His relief is premature. At the roundabout by the Abobo town hall, near the spot where just four days earlier seven unarmed women were mown down by Mr Gbagbo’s security forces, we are stopped at an improvised barricade. A couple of youths, claiming to be searching for weapons, tell Matthias to get out and open the boot. "We want to protect our neighbourhoods," they explain. They are really checking to see who the car’s occupants are. If, by your accent or name, you are deemed to be the "enemy", you could be a dead man. We don’t even know what side the young men are on. But they are perfectly polite, even apologising for pleading for a few coins "so that we can eat". A few yards further on, there is another barricade and the same rigmarole is repeated. Again, we are let through.

    At Abobo’s main hospital, a series of run-down single-storey concrete blocks, painted in blue and white and surrounded by the usual rubbish, we meet the doctor in charge. The sick and injured only dared to start coming to the hospital again the day before, he says. Which is just as well since most of the staff have also been too afraid or unable to come in. One nurse, unable to reach her home, has been sleeping in her office. The wards are virtually empty. Both sides in the conflict are equally violent, he says. "All we want is peace. So we can eat, do our work and live our  lives." He says he is relying on the "international community" to get the country out of its impasse. By doing what? I ask. He rolls his eyes and lifts his hands to heaven.

    On the wall outside the hospital, a sign in the midst of the piles of rotting debris sternly warns would-be litterers "Défense de jeter des ordures: 5,000fr" (local francs, just over $10) for doing so. Further on, down a deeply rutted alley, where no car should ever be allowed to venture, another hand-written sign proclaims: "Défense de pisser; 15,000 fr". This is where Matthias lives and he is proud of his neighbourhood. "This is one of the best areas in Abobo," he proclaims. By this he means that it is one of the least violent. He lives in a decrepit concrete bungalow in a dirt compound, surrounded by a high breeze-block wall, together with his wife and four children, and his brother’s widow and her five children. All have been sent to relatives in the country for safety. He is relieved to find his home intact.

    As we leave, a volley of gunshots rings out, then silence. Matthias is visibly nervous. The road back into town, totally clear when we came through a couple of hours ago, is now bristling with barricades. We are stopped, all the car doors torn open and a swarm of edgy youths in tank-tops and jeans enter the car, wrenching open pockets and diving under the seats in their search for hidden weapons. They find none, but demand money, a lot this time. A few yards further on, we are stopped again by more shouting youths, nervous, aggressive, angry. And then again, a third time, around the same roundabout in front of the town hall. One youth is so drunk he can’t even keep his eyes focussed. "We’re doing this to protect our communities," he slurs. I assure him that he’s doing an excellent job and, after a further dollop of cash, we are allowed to go on our way. It is only afterwards that Matthias admits he has a big machete hidden under his seat.

    Read on: This day one of a three-day diary. Continue on to day two and day three.

  • Wildlife in Africa

    Back to the bush

    Mar 6th 2011, 22:16 by J.L.| KAREN BLIXEN CAMP, MASAI MARA

    BAOBAB reaches out and grabs the spear the Masai has planted in the riverbed. The current is not strong, but the rocks are slimy with hippo leavings. There are two crocodiles basking just upstream. "They are not interested in you," the Masai says, by way of comfort. We reach the far side of the Mara River and begin climbing Oloololo, an escarpment which twists and turns all the way to Tanzania. It is already hot, too late in the morning for most animals to show themselves. We come across broken trees and elephant dung.

    A bull elephant has just passed through. Dung beetles are already bristling in the droppings. There is something heroic about them; an elephant lifts its tail and they are straight on to the dropping, slicing it up, rolling it into balls and taking it down into the earth, aerating and fertilising the soil. One of the Masai pokes at the dung. There are half-digested fruits of the greenheart tree among the grass and other seeds. We proceed cautiously: greenheart raises aggression in elephants. One of the men goes ahead with a bow and arrow, just in case. Baobab discerns some movement. A buffalo? No, just cattle. Closer to, we hear the cowbells. A barefoot boy drives the herd along. The cowbells warn off hyenas and lions. The clanging is agreeable, almost Alpine. The talk is mostly of animals, plants and trees. There are local varieties of olive and fig. Baobab asks one of the Masai what his favourite animal is. "A cheetah," he says, without hesitation. "They only eat fresh meat. They never scavenge."

    Baobab once wrote a novel which was in part about the nature of wild animals and is often drawn back to the African bush. The beauty of the land raises a perennial question: what is the wild worth to Africa? What is the rest of the world willing to pay to protect it?

    At the top of the escarpment, we come across the hiding place of a rock python. We go no further: just beyond are newly planted fields of maize. Kenya has lost half of its biodiversity in the last decade. Rivers, vegetation and animals are easily cleared away. Fragility brings urgency: can wilderness coexist in Africa with the growing human population? Is it right to castigate east Africa for mismanagement while the petroleum economies of west Africa, notably Nigeria, have obliterated their animal and bird life and are polluting their wetlands?

    Read more about conservation in Africa.

  • A mysterious ship

    Ghost ship

    Mar 4th 2011, 18:01 by J.L. | NAIROBI

    AUTHORITIES in the Seychelles boarded a small tanker, MT Esperanza, earlier this week and found no living souls aboard. The vessel had been drifting on the high seas since December, when its crew had been rescued by an American destroyer, the USS Sterett. The Esperanza had been boarded by pirates and the crew had disabled its engines. The captain of the Sterett claimed to have made "heroic efforts" to get the Esperanza going again. But it was left to the Seychelles to locate the ghost ship and tow it to port.

    The Esperanza is registered in Sierra Leone. Its Indian owner is elusive, perhaps worried by reports that the vessel was being used to illegally siphon fuel from bigger tankers at sea and sell it at a premium at small African ports. There may have to be an investigation as to why the foreign navies engaged in counter-piracy operations in the region did not secure the Esperanza.

    The Sterett's motto is "Forever Dauntless". It is named for Andrew Sterett, an American naval officer who made a name for himself fighting pirates in the Barbary Wars. He vanquished a formidable Tripolitan corsair and fought off attempts by pirates to board his ship. He was presented with a sword for valour by Thomas Jefferson in 1802.

    It was the Sterett which was engaged in chasing down a crew of Somali pirates who on February 18th captured a yacht with four American citizens aboard. An FBI negotiator on the Sterett began communicating with the pirates on the yacht. Too crudely, say Somali sources. What happened next is unclear. In Somalia, a pirate gang was preparing to take possession of the Americans hostages at the port of Eyl. Before that could happen, gunfire on the yacht on February 22nd left all four Americans dead, along with one of the pirates. Another of the Somali pirates had his throat cut by American special forces, who liberated the yacht and took the remaining pirates hostage. The Americans say that the Sterett, which was standing by the yacht, was fired on with a rocket-propelled grenade. It sustained no damage. It emerged later that Barack Obama had given orders for a raid on the yacht. Matters were complicated, in Somalia especially, by reports that the yacht was being used to distribute bibles around the world.

    Suspicions that the Americans may have bungled the operation from the Sterett are raised by the lack of information. Who fired the shots? What was said to the pirates? Will the deaths push the Americans towards direct action against the pirates, in imitation of the Barbary War? Being of a nautical bent, Baobab also wonders what will happen to the 800 or so sailors held hostage by Somali pirates and to the hundreds of yachtsmen stranded in Oman and across the Indian Ocean, wishing to cross the sea, but given no help or assurance by the foreign navies.

    Meanwhile, the piracy goes on.  A Danish yacht carrying Jan Quist Johansen, his wife and three children aged 12 to 16 was captured by pirates earlier this week. The yacht is now anchored off Hafun in Puntland. The Johansens have been transferred to a larger vessel nearby. Any attempt to intervene will end in more deaths, says a pirate source.

  • South Africa and Zimbabwe

    Pesky sanctions

    Mar 1st 2011, 18:26 by D.G.| PRETORIA

    SOUTH AFRICA, which is supposed to be "facilitating" a solution in Zimbabwe to the three-year-old power struggle between Robert Mugabe's Zanu-PF party and Morgan Tsvangirai's Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), seems to have adopted the 87-year-old dictator's view on the perniciousness of the West's targeted sanctions on Zimbabwe.

    At a press briefing on March 1st in Pretoria, the South African capital, Marius Fransman, South Africa's newish deputy foreign minister, called for the lifting of the sanctions, "most of which serve to deter potential investment in Zimbabwe", insisting that this "would go a long way to supporting the required economic recovery" in that benighted country.

    How the removal of targeted sanctions (there are no others), involving a freeze on the overseas assets of Mr Mugabe and some 200 of his henchmen along with restrictions on their foreign travel, would help boost flagging foreign investment in Zimbabwe, Mr Fransman did not explain. His ministry's official spokesman was unable to offer any enlightenment either. Odd, too, that Mr Fransman should have noted earlier in his briefing to the "noticeable progress...particularly on the economic front" made in Zimbabwe over the past two years—notwithstanding those pesky sanctions.

    At the same time, Mr Fransman revealed that South Africa and the Southern African Development Community (SADC), the guarantors of Zimbabwe's power-sharing pact, would be insisting on the adoption of a new, more democratic constitution by Zimbabweans before fresh elections could be held. To hold elections any earlier would be in breach of the pact, he said. Mr Mugabe, who has called for elections by June, is hardly likely to be quaking in his boots at such an announcement. After all, he continues to flout most of the other key provisions of the power-sharing deal with total impunity. And SADC does nothing.

About Baobab

On this blog our correspondents delve into the politics, economics and culture of the continent of Africa, from Cairo to the Cape. The blog takes its name from the baobab, a massive tree that grows throughout much of Africa. It stores water, provides food and is often called the tree of life.

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