CNN Asks Experts to Comment on Future of “Arab Spring”
April 26th, 2011 by Naureen
Given the uncertainty surrounding events in the Middle East, CNN.com asked five experts to address how the “Arab Spring” will play out in the coming months. Ibrahim Sharqieh, deputy director of the Brookings Doha Center, states that in the coming months we will see a new paradigm for political transition in the Middle East as dictators use more forceful means to quell popular uprisings. Nader Hashemi notes the misnomer of ”Arab Spring” given the differing internal dynamics of the countries, but notes that the days are numbered for Arab dictators. Parag Khanna, senior research fellow with the New America Foundation, argues that the region is likely to remain volatile especially in Egypt during the lead up to parliamentary elections and in Bahrain where the government has suppressed the opposition instead of addressing its concerns. He also notes the role the International Monetary Fund and the Gulf countries can play in supporting structural economic modernization throughout the region.
Julie Taylor, a political scientist at the RAND Corp., stated that in the next six months, we will likely see regime change in Yemen and Libya. Taylor also notes the Syrian armed forces commitment to President Bashar al-Assad and the strong support the regime will likely receive from Iran for a mass crackdown. Feryal Cherif draws parallels between the events in Egypt and those in Syria where both leaders offered concessions in hopes of appeasing protesters, but tended to remain a step behind protesters’ demands. She notes, however, that Syria lacks the presence of a strong civil society and experience with activism, which will likely hinder their movement.
Posted in Bahrain, Civil Society, Democracy Promotion, Egypt, Elections, Gulf, Iran, Military, Protests, Reform, Syria, Tunisia, Yemen | Comment »
Analyst Notes The New Age of Pan-Arabism
April 22nd, 2011 by Naureen
Writing at Foreign Policy, Parag Khanna notes the new age of Pan-Arabism that is characterized by societies demanding good governance and an inclusive political process. He states that the anti-authoritarian revolutions are “truly borderless” following Al Jazeera’s shaming of Arab autocrats — with the exception of Bahrain — and young activists training together across the region. Khanna also highlights the Arab League’s backing of a no-fly zone in Libya and considerations of peacekeeping forces for Palestine and Lebanon as “examples of a meaningful transnational Arab political sphere coming into being.” Khanna states that “the next great step toward a new Arab renaissance will come through physically overcoming the region’s arbitrary political borders” following the model of the European Union which has moved towards investing in cross-border infrastructure. He states that the Gulf countries could easily finance projects such as the Palestinian Arc project and trans-Arab transport corridors.
Posted in Arab League, Bahrain, Civil Society, Democracy Promotion, Egypt, EU, Foreign Aid, Freedom, Gulf, Gulf Cooperation Council, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Palestine, Protests, Qatar, Reform, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, Youth | Comment »
Sec. Clinton and Former Sec. Kissinger Discuss U.S. Foreign Policy and the Middle East
April 22nd, 2011 by Naureen
Speaking on Charlie Rose series, “Conversations on Diplomacy,” Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger discussed U.S. diplomatic efforts. Clinton highlighted the the new challenges facing U.S. foreign policy as the focus shifts away from state-to-state relationships to networks and multilateral relations and organizations. She also noted the implications of new technologies and new media. Kissinger noted the “huge changes” in state structure taking place across Europe, the Middle East and Asia. Even amongst all these changes, the United States continues to remain a dominant power in the world that countries across the world turn to for leadership and aid. Clinton stated however, that “one of our biggest foreign policy challenges right now is to get our own house in order…we have to consolidate our own economic and political position in order to be able to continue to influence events in the future.”
Discussing the “Arab Spring,” Secretary Kissinger stated that the revolutions are still unfolding, as such we must be cautious of being overly optimistic. He noted, however, that we must not be too hasty in judging the outcome of the uprisings based on the proclamations of a few and ensure real transitions occur. Clinton noted that it is U.S. interest “to see a peaceful, stable transition to a more representative form of government in which institutions are able to democratize over time.” She also noted the lack of economic growth and development in the region as a reason for the people’s frustrations. Clinton and Kissinger also discussed the threat of Iran and the country’s hope to take advantage of the instability in the region. Kissinger also stated that the situation in Libya is peripheral to the events in the broader Middle East.
Posted in Civil Society, Corruption, Democracy Promotion, Diplomacy, Egypt, Elections, Foreign Aid, Freedom, Gulf, Human Rights, Iran, Islam and Democracy, Jordan, Libya, Military, NATO, Protests, Reform, Syria, Tunisia, US foreign policy, Yemen | Comment »
Bahrain Update: GCC Troops to Stay As Counter to Iran, PM Says Conspirators in “Coup Attempt” To be Held Accountable
April 18th, 2011 by Naureen
On Monday, the Bahraini Foreign Minister Khalid bin Ahmed Al Khalifa announced that Gulf troops will stay in Bahrain until its rulers are satisfied that they have effectively countered threats from Iran. ”There is an external threat on the whole Gulf,” Al Khalifa said. He also reiterated that the GCC troops are not there to police, but rather to protect Bahrain’s “vital installations against a foreign threat.”
Bahrain’s state news agency also said on Monday that seven detained opposition supporters will go on trial before a military court for the killing of two policemen and “other charges.” Earlier this month, the media was banned from covering military precedings, leading activists such Nabeel Rajab, the head of Bahrain’s Human Rights Center to believe that the government is hiding something. In an interview at Democracy Now!, Farnaz Sanei, Human Rights Watch Bahrain and Iran researcher said that “[w]hat we’re seeing in Bahrain today is a full-scale crackdown on any sort of dissent in the country…this has gone well beyond trying to reestablish security.” Bahrain’s Prime Minister Sheikh Khalifa bin Salman al-Khalifa stated that “Bahrain has witnessed a coup attempt. No violators would get away with it. All conspirators and abettors must be held accountable.” In the meantime, the Bahraini government is continuing to arrest members of the opposition and Bahraini activist Zainab Al-Khawaja continues on the eighth day of her hunger strike. Al-Khawaja urged the U.S. government to put pressure on the Bahraini government to release her family members who were beaten and detained last week. Her father Abdulhadi al-Khawaja is a well known Bahraini human rights activist.
Posted in Bahrain, Democracy Promotion, Freedom, Gulf, Human Rights, Iran, Protests, Saudi Arabia, US foreign policy | Comment »
Takeyh Believes Saudi and Egypt are Key, Not Libya
March 29th, 2011 by Kyle
Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, Ray Takeyh, believes that the most important events taking place in the Middle East over the last week are not the military actions in Libya, but the “plebiscite in Egypt,” “the stalled attempt to usher in a constitutional rule in Bahrain, ” and “the ongoing turmoil in Yemen.” Takeyh believes that the U.S. must continue ardently supporting reform in the region even in light of the Arab League’s support for the military action in Libya.
He believes that the U.S. must focus on Egypt and Saudi Arabia, and that we must press the Egyptian military towards the transition to civilian rule. In regards to Saudi, he states: “Riyadh can be instrumental in advancing the cause of stability in the Gulf should it move away from its zero-sum confrontation with Iran and intolerant obsession with the Shiites.” He argues that the U.S. must also do more to effect Saudi policy to help effect a modernization of gulf politics. Thus, Takeyh recommends that the U.S. European nations focus on Libya while it focuses its efforts on broader reforms in the region.
Posted in Arab League, Bahrain, Democracy Promotion, Diplomacy, Egypt, Freedom, Gulf, Iran, Libya, Military, Multilateralism, Reform, Saudi Arabia, US foreign policy | Comment »
POMED Notes: “Popular Uprisings in the Middle East: The Implications for U.S. Policy”
March 18th, 2011 by Naureen
On Thursday, the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations held a hearing on the implications of uprisings in the Middle East has on U.S. policy. The Committee—chaired by Senator John Kerry (D-MA) – with ranking member Senator Dick Lugar (R-IN) in attendance –requested the testimony of William J. Burns, Under Secretary for Political Affairs.
To read full notes, continue below or click here for pdf.
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Posted in al-Qaeda, Arab League, Bahrain, Civil Society, Congressional Hearing Notes (Senate), Corruption, Democracy Promotion, Diplomacy, Egypt, Elections, Foreign Aid, Freedom, Gulf, Gulf Cooperation Council, Hezbollah, Human Rights, Iran, Iraq, Islam and Democracy, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Military, Morocco, Protests, Reform, sanctions, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, United Nations, US foreign policy, Yemen | Comment »
Bahraini Opposition Calls on U.N. to Intervene
March 14th, 2011 by Naureen
On Monday, Bahraini opposition groups wrote a letter to U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon appealing to the U.N. for intervention following the arrival of troops from Saudi Arabia and Gulf countries to help the Bahraini government quell the escalating street protests. The letter which was signed by eight registered “political societies” in Bahrain, including the Shi’a group Al-Wefaq and the Leftist group Al-Wa’ad, calls for an emergency meeting of the Security Council to discuss the entry of the Gulf forces. ”We consider any entrance of any soldier or army vehicle into the vicinity of the Kingdom of Bahrain — whether it’s on the ground, by air, or by sea — to be an occupation of the country…and contrary to all international agreements in times of peace and war,” the letter said. The letter goes on to “invite the international community to fulfill their responsibility of international peace and security … and to protect the people of Bahrain from the danger of the foreign military intervention”
To see the letter (in Arabic), please click here.
Posted in Bahrain, Freedom, Gulf, Human Rights, Military, Protests, Reform, Saudi Arabia, United Nations | Comment »
Clinton: Intervention in Libya Requires International Support
March 9th, 2011 by Naureen
Speaking on CBS’s The Early Show, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton addressed questions about international efforts in Libya stating that the British and French governments are going to the United Nations with a draft resolution to authorize international action and that the administration believes that it is important that there be a U.N. decision on whatever might be done and that the effort is not solely an American, NATO, or European one, but rather a truly international effort. She noted, however, that the Gulf countries have announced their support of a no-fly zone and that the Arab League has said that it will not object to one. The United States and the international community will move cautiously, she said, to prevent Colonel Muammar Gadhafi or others from using the intervention as evidence that the protests were foreign born instead of an indigenous movement.
Posted in Arab League, Gulf, Libya, Protests, United Nations | Comment »
POMED Notes: “Unrest in the Middle East: Scenes from the Revolution”
March 8th, 2011 by Naureen
On Monday, the Brookings Institution hosted a discussion on the democratic uprisings taking place across the Middle East and the broader implications for the U.S. and the wider region. Kenneth Pollack, Senior Fellow and Director of the Saban Center made opening remarks and moderated the event which included insights from the following speakers: Salman Shaikh, Fellow and Director of the Brookings Doha Center; Shadi Hamid, Fellow and Director of Research at the Brookings Doha Center; Daniel Byman, Senior Fellow and Director of Research at the Saban Center; and Shibley Telhami, the Anwar Sadat Professor of Peace and Development at the University of Maryland and non-resident Senior Fellow at Brookings.
To see full notes, continue below or click here for pdf.
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Posted in Bahrain, Civil Society, Democracy Promotion, Egypt, Elections, Foreign Aid, Freedom, Gulf, Islam and Democracy, Jordan, Military, Multilateralism, Muslim Brotherhood, NGOs, Oman, Protests, Reform, Saudi Arabia, Sectarianism, Tunisia, US foreign policy | Comment »
Reform for Gulf Monarchies Will Lead to Family Feud
March 7th, 2011 by Naureen
F. Gregory Gause III, writing in Foreign Policy, discusses the difficulties of the reform process in the Gulf countries given the large number of ruling family members in important government posts. Prior to the uprisings in Bahrain, the prime minister, three out of the four deputy prime ministers, and 10 out of the 23 cabinet ministers were from the al-Khalifa family. Similar proportions of ruling family members can be found in the cabinets of Kuwait, Saudia Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE. In Oman, the Sultan holds the portfolios of prime minister, minister of defense, minister of foreign affairs, minister of finance, and governor of the central bank, Gause notes. He states that while the dynastic nature of the Gulf monarchies helped them survive regional political upheavals in the 1950s and 1960s, it constrains them now as concessions to protesters’ demands will require removing family members from power. Gause argues that by proposing reforms Gulf leaders risk inciting internal opposition to their own rule. “It would take a strong figure to bring his family to heel and accept such a reduced political role” which is not the case in either Bahrain and Kuwait where neither King Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa nor Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmad al-Sabah have a reputation as uncontested leader of his extended family. Thus, for Gulf monarchies, reform will likely come with family feuds.
Posted in Bahrain, Gulf, Jordan, Kuwait, Morocco, Protests, Qatar, Reform, Saudi Arabia, UAE | Comment »
Don’t Forget About Bahrain
February 28th, 2011 by Naureen
Writing at Foreign Policy, Mohammed Ayoob states that while Libya is important, we should not forget about Bahrain where regime change may, in the long run, be an even more momentous event. Bahrain is not only located in a region with around 60 percent of the world’s proven oil reserves and 40 percent of it’s natural gas reserves, it is also a member of the regional security organization, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), whose members share many characteristics of the Bahraini regime. All Gulf monarchies are to varying degrees rentier states whose regimes consider their natural resources family property and use their resources to buy support from “largely politically apathetic subjects.” With the exception of Oman, these regimes draw their legitimacy from Sunni Islam “bestowing upon them a sectarian character, potentially destabilizing for the regimes ” given the substantial Shia populations in these countries.
Ayoob argues that it is unsurprising that the “the first spark of the democratic movement in the Gulf be lit in Bahrain because it is the weakest link in the autocratic chain in that region.” He also states that the regime has mishandled the situation and there by escalated protesters’ demands. Lastly, he notes that if the pro-democracy movement succeeds in Bahrain it will not only have far reaching consequences on the autocratic Arab rulers as well as their external patrons and supporters, but will also tilt the regional balance of power in favor of Iran.
Posted in Bahrain, Gulf, Kuwait, Oman, Protests, Qatar, Reform, Saudi Arabia, Sectarianism, UAE | Comment »
Doha Debates Choose Democratic Reform over Economic Liberalization
November 12th, 2010 by Anna
At a recent round of the Doha Debates – a monthly, televised event in which panelists debate a controversial issue before an audience drawn primarily from Qatar’s student body – 63% of audience members said that democratic reform should take precedence over economic liberalization. Although it was not a scientific poll, the vote “offer[ed] a clear rejection of the philosophy of the region’s so-called moderate Arab states, where economic incentives are offered in place of meaningful political reform,” the Los Angeles Times‘ Meris Lutz reported. One of the panelists debating the topic, Georgetown University academic Jean-Francois Seznec, argued that immediate democratization might lead to Islamist rule, which could mean more restrictions on freedom of speech. Egyptian blogger Wael Abbas responded that “you need to achieve participatory politics. [...] If the government keeps shutting up leftists, Nasserites, liberals and democrats, the Islamists will win.”
Posted in Civil Society, Freedom, Gulf, Islam and Democracy, Public Opinion | Comment »
New “World Press Freedom Index” Shows Decline in Middle East Media Freedom
October 20th, 2010 by Anna
Reporters Without Borders released its annual World Press Freedom Index today. In the Middle East and North Africa, press freedom saw mild improvements in some places, but deterioration overall. Morocco dropped 8 places in the global ranking, which the report’s authors attribute to “the arbitrary closing down of a newspaper, the financial ruin of another newspaper, orchestrated by the authorities, etc.” Tunisia’s score also worsened “because of its policy of systematic repression enforced by government leaders in Tunis against any person who expresses an idea contrary to that of the regime,” as well as a new amendment to the penal code that essentially criminalizes contact with foreign organizations that could damage national economic interests. In Syria and Yemen, press freedom continues to suffer as arbitrary arrests and torture are “still routine,” and crackdowns in Iran have kept that country at the near-bottom of the index. The rankings went down for Bahrain and Kuwait due to an uptick in charges against bloggers, including prominent Kuwaiti blogger Mohammed Abdel Qader Al-Jassem. The Palestinian Territories rose 11 places because “the violations committed in the year just ended are simply ‘less serious’ than in 2009,” and Algeria also saw mild improvements in media freedom. In Iraq, a higher score reflects the fact that journalists now work in safer conditions than in the past.
Posted in Bahrain, Freedom, Gulf, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Middle Eastern Media, Palestine, Syria, Technology, Tunisia | Comment »
Christians Face Oppression in the Gulf
October 8th, 2010 by Anna
A Reuters report today focuses on the difficulties Christians in the Arab Gulf states face in practicing their religion. The region is home to at least 3.5 million Christians, mostly Catholics from the Philippines and India. Gulf governments often restrict their ability to worship by limiting access to space and arresting Christians for allegedly proselytizing. In Saudi Arabia, control is especially tight – Christians often hold services in diplomats’ homes or hotel conference rooms. There has been some slow progress: Ibrahim al-Mugaiteb, head of the Saudi-based First Human Rights Society points out that “[t]en years ago a Saudi who said he was a Christian would have had his head cut off,” adding “[t]he problem is not the government, but the religious police.”
Posted in Freedom, Gulf, Saudi Arabia | Comment »
Blackberry: Bans and Bargains
August 10th, 2010 by Jennifer
An official at the Saudi Communications and Information Technology Commission has confirmed that RIM, the Canadian-based maker of Blackberry technology, has struck an agreement with the Saudi Arabian government to allow a server inside the Gulf kingdom, effectively allowing the Saudi government to monitor messages sent over the Blackberry network. The two parties reached the agreement in order to avoid a potential Blackberry ban that was announced by Saudi Arabia late last week, citing fears that messages sent over the highly encrypted, closed network could pose a security threat. According to Abdullah al-Shihri writing for the Associated Press, the deal “could be setting a worldwide precedent for how technology companies and governments get along.”
Meanwhile, a number of other Arab governments debated their position on use of the technology. Lebanese officials expressed their interest in potentially pursuing a deal, with chief of Lebanon’s Telecommunications Regulatory Authority Imad Hoballah stating, “RIM has made concessions to the U.S., the UK, Russia and eventually they have to give in to some of the countries depending on the business propositions made. We would be happy with whatever information they have made available to the U.S.” An official source in Algeria predicted that “Ending the BlackBerry service in Algeria is very likely,” as Telecommunications Minister Moussa Benhamadi announced that his government is “looking at the issue. If we find out that it is a danger for our economy and our security, we will stop it.” On the other hand, Bahrain’s foreign minister, Sheik Khaled bin Ahmed Al Khalifa, said that his country does not intend to issue a ban, stating, “We’re not saying there is no security concern,’’ but adding that “there are many other ways for the criminals or terrorists to communicate, so we decided we might as well live with it.’’ Additionally, an official source at the Egyptian National Telecommunication Regulatory Authority denied that security forces have put forward any requests for a ban on Blackberry services in Egypt, adding that no evidence exists that Blackberry networks have been used for criminal activity in that country. Kuwait indicated a more cautious stance toward the issue, with its Communications Minister, Mohammad al-Busairi, commenting that “as of right now, we in Kuwait have no intention to stop the BlackBerry services… but at the same time we are following up on direct and indirect negotiations with the company and with fellow Gulf states.”
Posted in Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Freedom, Gulf, Kuwait, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Technology, UAE | 1 Comment »
UAE: BlackBerry Ban
August 2nd, 2010 by Jennifer
The UAE announced yesterday that it would suspend BlackBerry email and text messaging services starting in October, with statements from the Telecommunications Regulatory Authority arguing that “‘certain BlackBerry services allow users to act without any legal accountability, causing judicial, social and national security concerns for the U.A.E.’.” The decision has sparked concerns that other Gulf nations– including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Bahrain –may follow up with their own bans. Saudi Telecom officials gave conflicting reports regarding whether Saudi Arabia had already decided to follow the UAE’s example, while the government did not release any official statement on the issue, and one adviser offered anonymous statements to the effect that no official determination had been made. Regimes in the region have indicated their concern over BlackBerry services, which use highly encrypted data to transfer messages on a closed internal system rather than over the open Internet, rendering surveillance of communications difficult. According to Barry Meier and Robert F. Worth writing in the New York Times, “The monitoring of information is a particularly thorny issue for autocratic regimes in the Persian Gulf worried that the Internet might be used for antigovernment purposes — a concern heightened by the passionate online response in Iran to the 2009 presidential election that helped energize the opposition and led to weeks of unrest.”
Posted in Freedom, Gulf, Saudi Arabia, Technology, UAE | Comment »
Iraq: Tensions Ease with Iran
December 21st, 2009 by Zack
Iranian troops have reportedly begun to withdraw from a disputed oil well in Iraqi territory that Iran occupied last week (see our post). However, according to Iraqi officials, the Iranians have only withdrawn 50 meters and refuse to return to the other side of the border.
Juan Cole believes the standoff could have been an Iranian ploy to either influence the border demarcations, raise oil prices, threaten the U.S. and China, or be a way for Tehran to warn Iraq away from its campaign with Syria. The Christian Science Monitor reports that many Iraqis and the U.S. fear that Iran will fill the void as the U.S. begins to withdraw.
The NY Times has a piece profiling Sunni sheikh Abdul-Rahman Munshid al-Assi, a former American prisoner and insurgent who has established the Arab Political Council to represent Sunnis in Kirkuk. While opposing inclusion into the democratic system, the article argues that Abdul-Rahman is using political action “to tap into the simmering rage he says is still rampant.” The sheikh and his cousins have entered politics to exploit another “tool” in the insurgent campaign to retake Kirkuk and restore Sunni authority.
Posted in al-Qaeda, Democracy Promotion, Diplomacy, Elections, Freedom, Gulf, Human Rights, Iran, Iraq, Military, Political Islam, Political Parties, US foreign policy | Comment »
Kuwait: PM Survives Grilling
December 16th, 2009 by Zack
The Daily Star has reported that the Kuwaiti Parliament failed to convene a special session in order to resolve the humanitarian issue of stateless Arabs. MP Hassan Jowhar, head of the parliamentary committee on stateless Arabs, known locally as the “bidoon,” accused the government of deliberately preventing the meeting by applying tight security measures and blocking roads leading to Parliament, measures put in place in response to calls by some MPs to assemble a large number of bidoon outside the parliament building. The story notes that “Kuwait launched a crackdown on bidoon in 2000, depriving them of their essential rights in a bid to force them to reveal what the authorities say is their true identity.” As a result, authorities claim 20,000 bidoon revealed their original citizenship and were given residence permits.
As Gulf nations
put into force a monetary compact that is a step closer to creating a single regional currency,
Al-Arabiya reports that Kuwait PM
Sheikh Nasser has
won a landslide victory against a non-cooperation motion filed by opposition lawmakers after the parliament questioned the PM over funding irregularities. Had the motion passed, it could have prompted the ruler to reshuffle the cabinet or dissolve parliament for the second time this year.
Posted in Freedom, Gulf, Kuwait, Legislation, Protests | Comment »
Report: Human Rights on the Decline Part II
December 12th, 2009 by Jason
As we reported earlier, the Cairo Institute for Human Rights Studies (CIHRS) has released a comprehensive and thorough report, called “Bastion of Impunity, Mirage of Reform,” on the state of human rights throughout the Arab world. The full report in Arabic spans 254 pages and chronicles in detail the backsliding on human rights in the region while also identifying a few points of optimism. In addition to the full report, CIHRS has released a translation of the report’s introduction written by their general director, Bahey eldin Hassan, as well as a 21-page summary of the report in English.
According to Hassan’s introduction, while there have been important strides to “ease repressive measures” in the Middle East under the Forum of the Future regional initiative, in no country were there “real constitutional, legislative, or institutional gains that could upset the balance of power between authoritarian regimes and the forces of reform.” Hassan blames this failure on the narrow focus on electoral reform at the expense of human rights, the contradictory actions of the G-8 countries, attempts by the Arab League to co-opt reform with their own homegrown initiatives, and the European and American fear of Islamist electoral victories. Finally, Hassan contends “the last spark in the initiatives was quashed once and for all with the arrival of a new US administration” apparently unwilling to support democracy rhetorically.
Now, Hassan warns that the minor gains made over the past five years are under a “counterattack by Arab governments. Among other examples of backtracking, the Arab league disabled the Arab Charter on Human Rights, which only had 10 of 22 signatory countries to begin with. As with the CIHRS report last year, Hassan concludes that “lack of political will on the part of most regimes in the Arab region was the key to understanding and explaining chronic human rights problems in the region.”
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Posted in Algeria, Arab League, Bahrain, Democracy Promotion, Diplomacy, Egypt, Elections, EU, Foreign Aid, Freedom, Gulf, Hamas, Hezbollah, Human Rights, Iraq, Islam and Democracy, Islamist movements, Israel, Jordan, Journalism, Judiciary, Kurds, Lebanon, Legislation, Military, Morocco, Multilateralism, Muslim Brotherhood, NGOs, Palestine, Political Islam, Political Parties, Protests, Public Opinion, Publications, Reform, Saudi Arabia, Sectarianism, Syria, Tunisia, United Nations, US foreign policy, Western Sahara, Women, Yemen | 1 Comment »
Grim Future for Yemen?
November 19th, 2009 by Jason
Mark N. Katz at the MESH blog elucidates on the multiple threats to Yemen’s stability. Besides the Houthi rebellion in the north, the independence movement in the south, and the lurking presence of Al Qaeda, a fourth threat that has not received as much attention is increasing tensions between the Saleh and Al Ahmar clans, who represent Yemen’s governing elites.
There is also an international dimension to Yemen’s problems. Saudi Arabia has assisted Saleh’s regime thus far in fighting the Houthi rebels. But if Saleh’s grip on power dwindles, Saudi Arabia may turn to support the southern secessionists as they have done in the past. Meanwhile, claims by Yemen and Saudi Arabia of Iranian support for Houthi rebels “have raised alarm in many quarters,” but it is unclear whether these accusations hold water. Katz argues that, while these conflicts derive from local causes, they portend international consequences.
He concludes: “Whatever its future, the period ahead for Yemen is likely to be, to paraphrase Hobbes, ‘nasty and brutish.’ This nasty and brutish period, though, is not likely to be short.”
Posted in al-Qaeda, Gulf, Iran, Military, Saudi Arabia, Terrorism, Yemen | Comment »
