Rival Palestinian factions Fatah and Hamas have reportedly reached a deal to end their four year dispute according to Egyptian and Palestinian officials. Meetings between the officials of the two groups took place n Cairo under Egyptian auspices. The tentative plan calls for the formation of a single caretaker government with presidential and parliamentary elections to follow in a year’s time. Key questions over the control of rival security forces have not yet been answered.
The Pew Research Center published a poll on Egypt’s political outlook on Tuesday, offering the “first credible” statistical insight of the political trends in post-revolutionary Egypt. Researchers conducted personal interviews with 1,000 Egyptian adults between 24 March and 7 April. Generally, the poll shows a highly favorable view of the military, and split support for the Muslim Brotherhood, the April 6 Movement and Ayman Nour’s Al-Ghad party. The New York Time’s coverage of the poll highlighted the optimism most Egyptian feels about the trajectory of the country. In contrast, Ahram Online, focused on the more than half of Egyptians who do not want to keep the peace treaty with Israel or maintain an Israeli embassy in the country, as well as the mere 36 percent of Egyptians who believe Coptic Christians should be able to freely practice their religion. Haaretz’s analysis emphasized that college-educated Egyptians are more likely to support the peace treaty than the working class.
A recent Financial Times op-ed underscores worries about Egypt’s liberal bloc, “Unfortunately, much of the energy of liberal Egypt seems to be focused on pursuing the old regime rather than preparing for the future.” The April 6 Movement announced its withdrawal from the Revolutionary Youth Coalition (RYC), citing the coalition’s interference in the movement’s internal affairs. April 6 seeks to create a comprehensive umbrella coalition that can participate in parliamentary elections.
Jordanian Senate President Taher Masrisaid the work of the National Dialogue Committee is running smoothly and should conclude in under a month. The four subcommittees which comprise the National Dialogue Committee are charged respectively with general framework, political parties, elections and constitutional amendments. The committee has been criticized for lacking youth representation and for serving as more of a royal think tank.
On Friday, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğanpresented the Justice and Development Party (AKP)’s election manifesto in which he outlined the government’s economic vision for Turkey’s future. He also criticized the opposition party, Republican People’s Party (CHP)’s economic policy and the pro-Kurdish Peace and Democracy Party (BDP)’s incitement of violence against police officers in the southeast during protests over the ban of Kurdish candidates. The CHP also released its election manifesto, which party chairman Kemal Kilicdaroglustated “will bring democracy and freedom to our country.” He stated that if the CHP comes to power, it’s first move would be to change the constitution to take “into consideration the views of all segments of the society.” He also announced planned economic reforms.
Nabih Berri, Speaker of the Lebanese Parliament, has said he is optimistic that Prime Minister-designate Najib Mikati’s new cabinet will be officially formed shortly after the Easter holiday. The speaker said that most of the “thorny issues” has been resolved and that negotiations were focusing on “final touches.” The formation of a new government has been in a three month long deadlock with political infighting over specific cabinet portfolios and Christian representation in the cabinet. The new cabinet will have 30 ministerial posts, nine of which will be shared by Hezbollah, the Amal Movement, and the Hezbollah led March 8 movement.
Former ministers and members of the parliament who had deserted President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s General People’s Congress (GPC) in protest of the government’s response to protests formed a new political group, the Justice and Building (or Development) Bloc. It includes former minister of tourism Nabil Al Faqih, minister of human rights, Huda Al Baan, and transport minister Khaled Al Wazir, in addition to former GPC politburo member Mohammed Abu Lahum, the new bloc’s leader, among others. The party is calling for Saleh’s immediate removal from power.
Jordan’s main Islamist opposition party, the Islamic Action Front (IAF), has been largely silent over the past months during Jordanian street protests. However, the party has moved to the forefront of protests having rallied a 1,000 person-strong demonstration in Amman this past Friday, reports Karen Leigh of TIME Magazine. Another Friday protest also turned violent as pro-monarchists clashed with Salafi jihadists in Zarqa. Anti-regime protests in the Kingdom had been spearheaded by the self-named March 24 youth movement but have pulled in fairly small numbers to rallies in Amman over recent weeks. Hamzah al-Mansur, the head of the IAF, has been making several TV appearances and has increased his profile in print media as well since Friday. Leigh states that the IAF is ramping up mobilization efforts to regain momentum against the newly appointed Prime Minister Maaruf Bakhit.
On Friday, the Center for the Study of Islam and Democracy (CSID) held their 12th Annual Conference under the theme “Tunisia’s and Egypt’s Revolutions and Transitions to Democracy.” CSID President Radwan Masmoudi opened the conference by giving special attention to discerning real and fake stability and development in Egypt and Tunisia.
The first panel, chaired by George Washington University Visiting Scholar and Program Committee Chair for the event, Radwan Ziadeh, was entitled “The Jasmine Revolution’ and Transition to Democracy in Tunisia: Why and How?” Jaloul Ayed, the Tunisian Minister of Finance, opened the panel following a brief introduction by Tunisian Ambassador Mohamed Saleh Tekaya.
Continue reading below, or click here for the pdf.
On Saturday, an Egyptian court ordered the dissolution of Hosni Mubarak’s National Democratic Party (NDP). The order meets one of the top demands by Egyptian activists. The party, which was founded in 1978 by Egyptian President Anwar Sadat, dominated Egyptian political life for three decades. Concern remains that aside from the Muslim Brotherhood, no other political party has substantial organization or constituency in the wake of the old regime.
At a Washington event earlier this month, Thomas Garrett of the International Republican Institute (IRI), cautioned that a thorough ban of the NDP from political life may not be practical. He noted that many younger NDP members sought and received IRI training, and that historically when an authoritarian party is banned during a democratic transition, they are reinstated down the road. Yesterday, at the 12th Annual Conference of the Center for the Study of Islam and Democracy (CSID) [notes forthcoming], Nathan Brown of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, warned that Egypt’s transition may not be threatened by top-level NDP officials, but the corrupt lower-level power brokers who operate the equivalent of political machines.
Update: POMED notes of Brown’s comments at the CSID conference are now available here.
A day after it ordered the main Shi’ite opposition party, al-Wefaq, to be dissolved, the Bahraini government has backtracked on its position after criticism from the United States. Al-Wefaq maintains that it has always been in compliance with Bahraini laws and regulations. In a daily press briefing on Thursday, U.S. State Department Spokesman Mark Toner said the U.S. was concerned by the decision to ban a mainstream political party that had been officially recognized by the government of Bahrain. He called on Bahrain to support freedom of association and expression and, “to foster an environment that encourages political pluralism and participation.” Toner also said that the U.S. would “welcome” the reversing of the decision and that Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Jeffrey Feltman would be visiting Bahrain next week to meet with officials .
Maati Monjib and Intissar Fakir, writing at The Guardian’s Comment is Free, call on Moroccan King Mohammed VI to separate himself from the Authenticity and Modernity party (PAM) in a “clear and definitive way.” Monjib and Fakir accuse the party of being a “political tool for the monarchy” and chronicle its rise to power in 2009 with direct support from the King himself. The party has quickly come to dominate Moroccan parliamentary politics and several of its elected members flouted legal restrictions by switching to PAM’s party list ahead of 2009 elections. A Moroccan judge who tried to enforce election laws on PAM after the elections was fired and his salary suspended. The party itself strongly embraces the monarchy and came out against street protests that took place in February. Civil society activists have called for the party’s dissolution or at the very least, severing ties with the King. Monjib and Fakir conclude that the party is turning out to be a liability for the King as he tries to maintain his image as a reformer; he can show “good faith,” they say, by “staying away from party politics.”
On Thursday, the Middle East Institute (MEI) hosted Hady Amr, Deputy Assistant Administrator, Middle East Bureau at the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), and Thomas Garrett, Vice President for Programs at the International Republican Institute (IRI), to discuss “Reform and Development in Egypt: U.S. Goals and Priorities.” The event was moderated by Kate Seelye, Vice President at MEI.
For full notes, continue below. For pdf version, click here.
April Longley Alley, writing at Foreign Affairs, believes that Yemen’s most immediate concern is to avert a “bloody civil war” , but also that economic and security challenges may undermine democratic reform in the future. Alley states that there has been a growth in important military figures and political groups defecting to support the opposition and while the youth and civil society activists welcome the support in ousting Saleh, they are “legitimately skeptical of the role that some of these forces may play in the future.” With the buildup of forces in Sana’a both loyal to the government and against it, Alley asserts that large swaths of Yemen are becoming increasingly susceptible to “al-Qaeda infiltration.” Alley states: “The protest movement may have opened the door to regime transition, but it has also accelerated an intra-elite battle that has little to do with democratic change — and everything to do with perpetuating vested power structures and interests.” To deal with this issue, Alley argues that it is essential that the youth, civil society, and regional groupings be accurately represented in any transitional period. Finally Alley believes that the “window of opportunity is closing,” but Saleh is still capable of salvaging his legacy by implementing reform through a swift transition.
Soner Cagaptay, writing at the Wall Street Journal,cautions against calls for post-authoritarian Arab countries to follow the Turkish model. Cagaptay argues that the Justice and Development Party, or the AKP, has slowly been “transforming Turkish society by making religion the moral compass of the country’s body politic.” The problem with this shift is that “once narrowly-defined faith becomes the guiding principle in policy, fundamentalists claiming ideological purity become more competitive politically.” The author outlines the Islamicization of Turkish politics and discusses how newly formed religious groups, such as Kurdish Hezbollah, may become competition for the AKP. Historically, Cagaptay notes, fundamentalists defeat conservatives in the competition for ideological purity. He also discusses what such a shift could mean for the United States and Europe, especially in light of upheavals across the Arab world.
Reports emerged on Monday that security forces in Syria have fired teargas and shots in the air as anti-government protests flared again in the southern city of Deraa. The unrest in Deraa follows clashes in Latakia over the weekend, in which at least 12 people were killed which prompted authorities to state again on Sunday that they would lift the decade long emergency law after it enacts an anti-terrorism law. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is expected to address the nation on Tuesday.
Turkey’s Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, spoke with Assad over the weekend and urged him to implement reform: “We did not receive a negative answer when we urged Mr Assad to listen to the voice of people. I hope he makes the announcement today or tomorrow … It is impossible for us to remain silent in the face of these events, we have a 800km-long border with Syria.”
Ray Takeyh, writing for The Washington Post, argues that the U.S. should in fact actively choose sides to fortify the “political center” against opportunistic and exploitative Islamist fringe parties who will seek to manipulate democratic transitions in the region. He challenges the assumption that Islamist parties will modify themselves once integrated into the political order. Takeyh claims this line of thought fails to adequately account for the strength and perseverance of Islamist ideology. He states that Islamist parties will consistently be a “menace” to “an inexperienced democratic order,” and seek to introduce discriminatory legislation against women and NGOs. They will use campaigns of intimidation and fear to keep secular politicians and civil society leaders quiet. Exclusion of such parties in a democratic system is not viable, but the U.S. should seek to ensure, primarily through economic aid, that extremism will not be tolerated in the new political orders of the Middle East.
Matt Duss, writing at Think Progress’ blog The Wonk Room, criticizes Takeyh stating that: ”the U.S. simply should not be in the business of picking winners in the new Middle East. Our focus should be on assisting in the creation of strong, accountable and transparent processes and institutions, not on selecting the people who should run them.” He further asserts that Takeyh’s claims about the Muslim Brotherhood are wrong citing Al Qaeda’s repeated criticisms of the Brotherhood for essentially being, “a bunch of Westernized sell-outs.” Duss also offers evidence of Islamist parties in Iraq who have been busy squabbling over political power and resources and do not seem terribly interested in setting up an Islamic state. He concluded by stating that given the religious nature of U.S. politics, Americans should know that faith and politics can co-exist non-violently, “if not always peacefully and comfortably.”
The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace hosted an event on Wednesday, March 23rd entitled “The Arab Uprisings: A View from the University on Tahrir Square.” Lisa Anderson, President of the American University of Cairo, gave prepared remarks which were followed by a question and answer session from the audience. Marwan Muasher, vice president for studies at The Carnegie Endowment moderated the event.
For full notes, continue below. For pdf version, click here.
The U.S. State Department announced that it will give $20 million in assistance to Tunisia to aid in democracy building efforts. The money will provide training and expertise on conducting free and fair elections, operating a free press, and the creation of political parties. A portion of the funds has also been designated for economic aid. The funds are unspent money from Congressional appropriations for other purposes and will be distributed through the Middle East Partnership Initiative (MEPI). This is an $18 million increase in funding over bilateral assistance to Tunisia in 2010. The EU has pledged $23 million in immediate aid as well along with $350 million over the next two years.
Issandr El Amrani, writing at Time, asserts that the passing of the referendum by 77.2% of those that voted is “a vote for stability, a return to normalcy after the biggest political upheaval in decades.” For those who voted no he states: ” They saw it as a victory for counterrevolutionary forces, a plot by the military to ram through a rapid transition plan that will not give new political forces time to get their footing.” He argues that there is reason not to give the military the “benefit of the doubt” due to the violent ending of the occupation in Tahrir as well as reports of torturing protesters, but that they seem committed to a transfer to civilian government. El Amrani concludes: “Even if one did not like the outcome or the rushed manner in which the referendum was held, there was a national recognition that a rare moment of genuine political participation had taken place.”
Steven Cook, argues that following the referendum: “You can certainly expect to see a flowering of politics in Egypt, and the emergence of all kinds of different groups.” Voice Of America’s Cairo Bureau Chief, Elizabeth Arrott, states that the results pave the way for the proposed timetable of parliamentary and presidential elections within 6 months which is exactly what many in the opposition feared. She asserts that fears of the Muslim Brotherhood and National Democratic Party gaining the upper hand in a rushed election schedule “seem to have been borne out to some extent by the results we saw on Sunday.” Richard Howitt reiterated this claim warning, “that the new parliament could be dominated by militant Islamism or remnants of the former dictatorship” and called for the EU to pledge greater support to promote democracy in Egypt. Pope Shenouda III, head of Egypt’s Coptic Christian Church, has also suggested the modification of Article 2 of the Egyptian Constitution, which declares Islamic law as the main source of civil legislation in Egypt which was not addressed in the referendum and will be sure to spark debate in the future.
