Last week, the National Democratic Institute released a report outlining the results of a qualitative study to explore what Tunisia’s youth think and feel about the past, present and future of their country. The information will be used to ensure the Tunisian political elites understand and address the expectations of the youth during the transition process and develop outreach strategies to increase youth involvement. The study, which looks at data compiled from ten focus groups in nine cities across the country, shows that the Tunisian youth are excited about voting and participating in the first free election to be held in their lifetime and hope to play a meaningful role in the unfolding transition. The report also highlights youth fear that the transition will be co-opted by individuals and elite groups ”attempting to profit from the revolution for personal gain,” noting the non-transparent process thus far. Additionally, the findings demonstrate that the political parties and civil society organizations are unknown by the youth today, due to their severe repression under former President Zine Ben Ali.
Walter Russel Meadargues that U.S. justifications for intervention in Libya, humanitarian and strategic, are more evident in Syria, especially following the killings of the past weekend. Aside from Syria’s role in supporting extremist groups, Mead argues that pressuring Iran would rekindle US-Saudi relations.
Israeli officials are debating whether or not it is in Israel’s interests to see regime change in Damascus. “We prefer the devil we know,” said Ephraim Sneh, a former deputy defense minister. Dore Gold, a former foreign policy adviser to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, argued that undermining Iran’s influence with a pro-Western regime in Damascus presents a huge policy opportunity. The debate provoked Martin Kramer to dismiss whether Israel’s preferences matter at all for Syria’s future. Kramer added,”It’s not the 1950s. So sit back, watch the show, hope for the best, prepare for the worst.”
Shadi Hamid argues that the Middle Eastern countries that are most susceptible to revolution are the republics; witness Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen, Libya, and perhaps Algeria. In these countries, an unpopular president allows for disparate opposition elements to unite for the purpose of effecting regime change. However, in monarchies like Jordan and Bahrain, says Hamid, Kings draw on “greater historical and religious legitimacy” despite being capable of repression like republican autocrats. They also tend to hold reasonably free polls and allow legal opposition, creating a veneer of reform while concentrating real power in the ruling family. In contrast, rulers in Tunisia and Egypt resorted to “flagrantly rigged elections” to maintain power. Hamid further argues that Kings can always claim ‘plausible deniability’ when things go wrong and can blame and dismiss government while staying above the fray. Despite new calls for constitutional monarchies in places like Jordan, Bahrain, and Morocco, these ruling families still stand a good chance of remaining in power. Pro-democracy opposition, he says, will have to find a new model for change: “No matter what they do, it won’t be easy. Let’s just hope it won’t be bloody.”
On Monday, a Yemeni opposition source told Reuters that the opposition has fully accepted a plan created by the Gulf Cooperation Council for Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh to step down. The source also said that the opposition would participate in the transitional government. The plan, which transfers power to the Vice President and grants Saleh immunity, was initially rejected by the opposition who called for Saleh to step down immediately. Other members of the opposition rejected the plan with the demand that Saleh be prosecuted.
In an interview with The Cairo Review of Global Affairs, Senator John McCain (R-AZ) expressed his belief that the U.S. should resume its leadership of NATO operations in Libya, recognize the Transitional National Council as the “legitimate voice of the Libyan people,” and arm the rebels lest the situation turns into a stalemate which empowers al-Qaeda or Muammar Gadhafi‘s regime. He also called on President Barack Obama to formally declare that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has lost his legitimacy as a ruler by slaughtering his own people. However, he cautioned against calls for regime change as failure to secure regime change could hurt the United States’ credibility. He also stated his opposition to direct U.S. involvement in Syria noting that he does not see a way for the U.S. to help the opposition in any way other than through expressions of solidarity with the protesters.
Discussing Egypt, Senator McCain stressed the importance of ensuring a successful transition in Egypt given the regional importance of the country. He expressed his belief that the Supreme Military Council under the leadership of General Mohamed Tantawi has handled the transition “very well so far.” The Senator also expressed his concern over the situation in Yemen where it is unclear what will come next. McCain also noted the different situations and complexities in the various protest movements across the Middle East and also noted the impact it has had in places like China and Russia.
Jordanian Senate President Taher Masrisaid the work of the National Dialogue Committee is running smoothly and should conclude in under a month. The four subcommittees which comprise the National Dialogue Committee are charged respectively with general framework, political parties, elections and constitutional amendments. The committee has been criticized for lacking youth representation and for serving as more of a royal think tank.
Alfred Stepan, writing at Democracy Digest, discusses whether Tunisia and Egypt will successfully transition into democracies. Stepan optimistically states that Tunisia will successfully transition to a democracy this year noting the fact that the military is not complicating the transition, that the civilian-led interim government has engaged in interactive negotiations about the democratic rules with virtually all major actors, and that a Constituent Assembly is being formed and will step down following the formation of a government. Additionally, he notes that the Constituent Assembly, which is free to choose the system of government, will likely form a parliamentary government following the model of post-communist European countries. Stepan also points to the inclusion and moderation of Al-Nahda as a reason for the success of Tunisia.
Looking at the case of Egypt, Stepan states that while democratization is probable in the long term, the country does not have the “especially favorable conditions we find in Tunisia.” He points to the fact that every president in Egypt’s history has been military officer and the role of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) in the transition period as a hindrance for democratic development. He also states that the U.S. emphasis on maintaining strong relations with the army, which receives $1.3 billion of the total $1.5 billion of U.S. aid to the country, may also hurt the the transition.
The National Transitional Council has signed up with the Harbour Group, a well-connected DC-based public relations firm, according to Justice Department records. The firm, which is working pro-bono, aims to gain US recognition of the rebel council, in addition to encouraging US humanitarian aid to Libya and freezing the assets of Libyan ruler Muammar Gadhafi in order to pay for that aid. To this end, Harbour will “help prepare speeches, press releases and op-eds, contact reporters and think tanks and develop a website and social media for the council.”
The contract is currently under Justice Department review. While the article declares, “Unrest in the Middle East has led to more business for K Street,” citing recent deals with the Bahraini government, among others, Harbour professes different motives. According to Richard Mintz, Harbour’s managing director, “It’s the right thing to do.”
Egypt’s military-led transitional government has decided to “freeze” for three months the appointment of Emad Mikhail, a Christian and former police officer who was appointed as governor of Qena province this month, The concession was made in order to assuage a week’s worth of protests. Protesters are also taking issue with the appointment of former policemen as governors in two other provinces. In Qena, some protesters have declared their refusal to be governed by a Christian. In spite of the announcement, about one thousand protesters are continuing until Mikhail appointment is canceled.
The Bahraini government officially accused Hezbollah of helping train anti-government opposition in an official report sent to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon. The report claims that the group has been training opposition figures at camps in both Lebanon and Iran and also accuses them of targeting other Gulf nations as well. Bahrain also claims that Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah of meeting with senior leaders of Bahrain’s largest Shi’ite opposition group al-Wefaq and the banned al-Haq group. Hezbollah, Iran, and the Shi’ite opposition groups accused of complicity have all denied the charges. The U.S. State Department has said it believes Iran’s role in the unrest in Bahrain has been minimal and that protests reflect “home-grown frustrations” of the long marginalized Bahraini Shi’a community.
The State Department has ceased to update the democracy promotion website America.gov. The decision came as the result of a review last fall, which concluded that the State Department’s Bureau of International Information Programs (IIP) needed a “more proactive” web engagement strategy that focused less on “static” websites and more on social media, according to IIP Deputy Assistant Secretary Duncan MacInnes. The website, which was launched in January 2008, is currently being archived. The resources it provided will now be available through individual embassy and consulate websites.
On Saturday, President Barack Obama issued a statement strongly condemning the use of force by the Syrian government against peaceful protesters: “This outrageous use of violence to quell protests must come to an end now.” The President also expressed his belief that that Syria’s repeal of the Emergency Law was “not serious given the continued violent repression against protesters.” He called on the Syrian government put aside their personal interests and address the legitimate demands and aspirations of his people. Obama reiterated U.S. support for democracy and universal human rights. He also criticized President Bashar al-Assad‘s statements blaming outsiders for the unrest and the Syrian governments “continued destabilizing behavior more generally, including support for terrorism and terrorist groups.”
The Associated Press reported on Monday that Bahrain is seeking the death penalty for seven protesters on trial accused of killing two policeman during demonstrations. The military prosecutor said he was seeking death as the men had “committed their crime for terrorist reasons.” The defendants have plead not guilty. Their hearing is set for Thursday.
Two pieces on the Foreign Policy website situate the Arab Spring in political-historical perspective and argue over the wisdom of foreign intervention. The first, an interview with University of Massachusetts professor Gene Sharp, whose writings have been hailed as manual for nonviolent resistance in Eastern Europe and the Arab world, says “the U.S. should stay out of these situations completely,” arguing “[p]eople have to learn how to do it themselves.”
In a separate op-ed, however, Washington Post columnist and author David Ignatiusargues that foreign support and strong leaders have been a necessary, even if not sufficient, condition of successful revolutions: “even with the genius of America’s founders and the backing of France, Americans still made a mess of things initially with their first constitution, the Articles of Confederation.” Drawing on this and other historical examples, Ignatius argues that diplomatic support and aid to Egypt and Tunisia’s transitions are imperative (though, he is skeptical of the trajectories in Syria, Libya and Yemen). Both authors, coincidentally drawing on the shared example of Thomas Paine’sCommon Sense, agree that while media technology serves as a linchpin to revolutions, the trigger lies more in the message being communicated.
On Sunday, thousands of Moroccans held peaceful demonstrations calling for “a radical overhaul of the country’s governance” before the new constitution is unveiled in June. The protest was organized on Facebook by Morocco’s February 20 Movement, which has refused to join a consultative committee, formed by King Mohammed VI, to review the constitution. Leaders of the movement argued that the present draft of the constitution was written by a unilaterally formed committee which does not appear to take the demands of the people seriously. Demonstrators called for a committee “which represents all the Moroccans.” Although the king announced last month that he would give up some powers and make the judiciary independent, protesters state that they believe his statements are simply empty rhetoric. Many are calling for the government to address the widespread corruption in the country, which was ranked as the 89th most corrupt country in the world by Transparency International. Protesters also called for an end to political detentions in Rabat and Casablanca.
On Monday, the crackdown in Syria escalated as the Syrian army sent tanks to Dera’a and arrested scores of protesters, killing five in the process. Nearly 350 people have died since protests began five weeks ago. According to Jordanian officials, phone lines have been cut in the area and the Syria-Jordan border crossing near Dera’a has been sealed on the Syrian side. Syrian security forces also arrested dozens of Syrians in the towns outside of Damascus such as Douma and Maadamiah, in an attempt to prevent protesters from marching on the capital. 12 people were also killed in clashes with security forces in the coastal city Jabla, inhabited largely by the Alawite minority. Human rights groups inside Syria are also reporting the disappearance of hundreds of activists since Friday.
On Sunday, Human Rights Watch urged the United Nations to set up an international inquiry into the Syrian security forces’ use of live ammunition against peaceful protesters, after the killing of protesters in 14 towns last Friday. HRW also called on the international community to impose sanctions on Syrian officials responsible for the use of lethal force and arbitrary arrest of protesters. The International Committee of Justice called for the referral of the Syrian situation to the U.N. Security Council and the International Criminal Court while U.N. human rights chief Navi Pillaycalled on the Syrian government to stop the killing of its people and implement reform. The Wall Street Journalreported that the Obama Administration “is drafting an executive order empowering the president to freeze the assets of these senior Syrian officials and ban them from any business dealings in the U.S.” Officials state that they hope that U.S. sanctions will pressure European countries to follow suit.
Update: National Security Council spokesman Tommy Vietor said Monday that President Obama “is pursuing a range of possible policy options, including targeted sanctions, to respond to the crackdown and make clear that this behavior is unacceptable.” He added, “The brutal violence used by the government of Syria against its people is completely deplorable and we condemn it in the strongest possible terms.”
On Saturday, it was announced that GCC mediation efforts on the political crisis in Yemen had borne fruit: Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh said that he had agreed to the GCC plan for him to hand over power to his deputy in 30 days in exchange for immunity from prosecution. Protests against the Saleh regime have continued however as opposition protesters and leaders said that immunity for Saleh was unacceptable after his regime’s brutal and deadly crackdown on demonstrations. On Monday, security forces clashed with protesters in Taiz wounding dozens while at least two protesters were shot and killed in Sana’a. Injuries from bullet wounds have been reported at protests in the city of Ibb as well. Saleh has continued to refuse opposition demands he step down ‘immediately’ stating that he would not hand the country over to “insurrectionists.”
Speaking on Face The Nation, Senator Mark Kirk (R-IL) called for U.S. support of Syrian protesters: “”We should use the diplomatic weight and press authority of the United States to undermine the Syrian dictatorship…I think we are witnessing the slow end of the Assad dictatorship, and we should stand with the people of Syria.” Senators Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) and Chris Coons (D-DE) echoed Kirk’s sentiments stating, “America is safest and America is strongest when we lead with our values. And the values we have that are really compelling to folks around the world are when we stand up and support democracy and people who are seeking a greater role in their own countries.”
The senators also discussed the ongoing situation in Libya and Senator John McCain (R-AZ)’s recent statements that the U.S. should expand its mission to remove Muammar Gadhafi from power and recognize the rebels. Senator Kirk called for following the example of our European allies and recognizing the rebel government and also expressed his believe that “we have a responsibility to win.” Senator Coons stated that we should give the multi-national coalition more time before we formally expand our mission and Senator Blumenthal cautioned against recognizing the rebel government and let the Libyan people decide who their government is.
Update: On NBC’s “Today” show, Senator McCain apologetically announced that he does not support military intervention in Syria: “I don’t see a scenario right now or anytime in the near future where the injection of U.S. or NATO military action would in any way beneficially help the situation, I’m sorry to say.”
Turkish President Abdullah Gul, in a New York Times op-ed, argued that a comprehensive agreement between Israel and the Palestinian authority is necessary for regional security and democratic consolidation in the wake of the Arab Spring. Gul’s presumes that a reliable peace and stable regional democracies are complimentary, given that the “plight of the Palestinians has been a root cause of unrest and conflict in the region and is being used as a pretext for extremism in other corners of the world;” and because “[h]istory has repeatedly shown that a true, fair and lasting peace can only be made between peoples, not ruling elites.” The hypothesis linking the the Palestinian question with stability in a post-revolutionary Middle East has been rejected by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, though supported by German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
Gul proposed that Turkey “facilitate” negotiations between Palestinians and Israelis while conceding the chief mediating role to the United States. He toted Turkey’s mediation credentials while implicitly acknowledging the recent cooling in Turkish-Israeli relations, “Turkey’s track record in the years before Israel’s Gaza operation in December 2008 bears testimony to our dedication to achieving peace.” He acknowledged Turkey’s own stake in regional peace and stability in its eagerness to facilitate negotiations. Turkey’s geo-political interests in the region were underscored in an Al Hayat op-ed which described Syria as pulled between the influences of Anakara and Tehran.
