Senator McCain Discusses Protest Movements Across the Middle East
April 25th, 2011 by Naureen
In an interview with The Cairo Review of Global Affairs, Senator John McCain (R-AZ) expressed his belief that the U.S. should resume its leadership of NATO operations in Libya, recognize the Transitional National Council as the “legitimate voice of the Libyan people,” and arm the rebels lest the situation turns into a stalemate which empowers al-Qaeda or Muammar Gadhafi‘s regime. He also called on President Barack Obama to formally declare that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has lost his legitimacy as a ruler by slaughtering his own people. However, he cautioned against calls for regime change as failure to secure regime change could hurt the United States’ credibility. He also stated his opposition to direct U.S. involvement in Syria noting that he does not see a way for the U.S. to help the opposition in any way other than through expressions of solidarity with the protesters.
Discussing Egypt, Senator McCain stressed the importance of ensuring a successful transition in Egypt given the regional importance of the country. He expressed his belief that the Supreme Military Council under the leadership of General Mohamed Tantawi has handled the transition “very well so far.” The Senator also expressed his concern over the situation in Yemen where it is unclear what will come next. McCain also noted the different situations and complexities in the various protest movements across the Middle East and also noted the impact it has had in places like China and Russia.
Posted in al-Qaeda, Bahrain, Civil Society, Corruption, Democracy Promotion, Egypt, EU, Foreign Aid, Freedom, Human Rights, Jordan, Libya, Military, Morocco, NATO, Protests, Reform, Syria, Tunisia, United Nations, US foreign policy, Yemen, Youth | Comment »
Senators Discuss U.S. Involvement in Syria and Libya
April 25th, 2011 by Naureen
Speaking on Face The Nation, Senator Mark Kirk (R-IL) called for U.S. support of Syrian protesters: “”We should use the diplomatic weight and press authority of the United States to undermine the Syrian dictatorship…I think we are witnessing the slow end of the Assad dictatorship, and we should stand with the people of Syria.” Senators Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) and Chris Coons (D-DE) echoed Kirk’s sentiments stating, “America is safest and America is strongest when we lead with our values. And the values we have that are really compelling to folks around the world are when we stand up and support democracy and people who are seeking a greater role in their own countries.”
The senators also discussed the ongoing situation in Libya and Senator John McCain (R-AZ)’s recent statements that the U.S. should expand its mission to remove Muammar Gadhafi from power and recognize the rebels. Senator Kirk called for following the example of our European allies and recognizing the rebel government and also expressed his believe that “we have a responsibility to win.” Senator Coons stated that we should give the multi-national coalition more time before we formally expand our mission and Senator Blumenthal cautioned against recognizing the rebel government and let the Libyan people decide who their government is.
Update: On NBC’s “Today” show, Senator McCain apologetically announced that he does not support military intervention in Syria: “I don’t see a scenario right now or anytime in the near future where the injection of U.S. or NATO military action would in any way beneficially help the situation, I’m sorry to say.”
Posted in al-Qaeda, Congress, Democracy Promotion, Freedom, Human Rights, Libya, Military, NATO, Protests, Syria, US foreign policy | Comment »
Libya: Hatita Discusses Who Could Take Power After Gadhafi
April 20th, 2011 by Kyle
In a brief for the Arab Reform Initiative, Abdel Sattar Hatita discusses the power vacuum that could potentially be left following the fall of Gadhafi along with the potential groups who could fill it. He argues: “At best, it seems that the opposition has liberal political leanings but remains, according to data from the ground, fragile and incoherent, or arguably is still in the process of being formed.” Due to the abolition of political parties by Gadhafi in 1972, Hatita questions whether Libya will have a functioning civil society capable of forming a new government after being “suppressed and deactivated throughout the past four decades.” Although analysts have downplayed the role of al-Qaeda in Libya, Hatita discusses the overwhelming presence of Islamist groups in Libya’s historical opposition.
Posted in al-Qaeda, Civil Society, Civil War, Libya | Comment »
Senator McCain Expresses Concerns Over Possible Stalemate in Libya
April 18th, 2011 by Naureen
On Monday, Senator John McCain (R-AZ) expressed his fears that a stalemate has developed in Libya which could “open the door for radical Islamists to come in and hijack this revolution.” He called for the U.S. to revive air attacks to incapacitate Muammar Gadhafi‘s forces. He also discussed the need for a strategy to oust Gadhafi from power: “Now we are faced with a situation where we hope Gadhafi will fall, but have no strategy. Hope is not a strategy.”
Posted in al-Qaeda, Congress, Islamist movements, Libya, Military, NATO, US foreign policy | Comment »
Tawakkol Karman Discusses Unification of Yemeni Opposition and Peaceful Protests
April 11th, 2011 by Naureen
Writing at The Guardian‘s Comment is Free, Yemeni activist and opposition leader Tawakkol Karman discusses how the protests in Yemen, inspired by the events in Tunisia, began. She also outlines how she, along with other opposition leaders, sent invitations to all Yemeni political players, “encouraged them to overlook their differences and assured them that Yemen would be better off without Ali Abdullah Saleh.” Karman also notes the peaceful nature of the protests, stating that despite “the fact that hundreds of protesters have been killed by the regime, not one police officer or security agent has been killed by the masses,” even after sniper attacks on protesters. She further elaborates on the unified nature of the demonstrations, her confidence in the success of the revolution, and calls for avoiding “the bogeyman of al-Qaeda and extremism [being] used to stall historic change in our country.”
Posted in al-Qaeda, Civil Society, Corruption, Freedom, Military, Protests, Terrorism, Yemen | Comment »
POMED Notes: “The Future of Yemen”
April 7th, 2011 by Naureen
On Tuesday, the United States Institute of Peace (USIP) Yemen Working Group and the National Democratic Institute (NDI) hosted a live video conference with leaders of the Yemeni opposition. The event which was moderated by Tara Sonenshine, Executive Vice President of USIP and Les Campbell, Senior Associate and Regional Director for the Middle East and North Africa at NDI featured the following panelists: Tawakkol Karman, head of the Yemeni NGO, Women Journalists Without Chains and a leading youth figure of the anti-government protest movement; Shadi Khosruf, spokesperson for the committee tasked with drafting the “Youth Revolution Document;” Sheikh Mohammed Abu Lahoum, former senior member of the ruling General People’s Congress; and Mohammed Qattan, Shura Council member of the Yemeni Congregation for Reform (Islah) and current spokesman for the Joint Meeting Parties. Yassin Noman, Secretary General of the Yemeni Socialist Party and Chair of the Supreme Council of the Joint Meeting Parties was not present.
To read full notes, continue below or click here for pdf.
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Posted in al-Qaeda, Civil Society, DC Event Notes, Democracy Promotion, Egypt, Freedom, Human Rights, Protests, Reform, Tunisia, US foreign policy, Yemen | 1 Comment »
Possibilities for a Post-Assad Syria
April 6th, 2011 by Alec
Bilal Y. Saab, writing for The National Interest, argues that a collapse of the regime would have ripple effects across the Middle East and the country’s network of external relations could collapse. He outlines two ways in which a post-Assad Syria could develop. On the positive side, Syrian intervention in Lebanese politics could essentially be eliminated along with its support for Hezbollah. This would significantly weaken Hezbollah he argues. The collapse of the Assad regime could also deprive Hamas of a political base in Damascus. This development could help spur the stalled Peace Process between Israel and the Palestinians, he posits. There could also be a regional power balance shift as a Sunni Syrian leadership may opt for terminating its partnership with Iran which would create an arc of Sunni states in the region which would greater serve U.S. interests. Furthermore, a democratic Syria could help security and stability in Iraq.
On the negative side, regime collapse could lead to sectarian conflict which could spread to neighboring countries and destabilize the whole region. This is particularly worrisome in Lebanon where the specter of armed sectarian conflict is never far from the surface. If Syrian Kurds start to demand autonomy, the Turkish military may feel the need to get involved. Saab also states that a new government in Syria could be dominated by a more militant and assertive group of Syrian nationalists that are determined to wrest the Golan Heights back from Israel. The Syrian branch of the Muslim brotherhood, being more radical and extreme than its Egyptian counterpart, could invite al-Qaeda to “set up shop” in the country. Saab indicates that the best outcome that would serve U.S. interests best would be for Bashar al-Assad to dismantle his regime but remain in power.
Posted in al-Qaeda, Civil War, Hamas, Hezbollah, Islamist movements, Israel, Kurds, Muslim Brotherhood, Political Islam, Protests, Reform, Sectarianism, Syria, Turkey, US foreign policy | Comment »
Obama’s Libya/Middle East Policies Criticized
April 6th, 2011 by Alec
Raymond Ibrahim, writing for the Hudson Institute, criticizes President Barack Obama’s military intervention in Libya as misguided policy rationalized by “sentimental and idealistic platitudes” while lacking common sense. Ibrahim accuses Obama of conflating “interests” with “values,” treating them as one in the same, something that should not be done. Failing to draw conclusions from Iran, Obama fails to understand that his false assumption that, “people will always choose liberal, humanitarian forms of governments,” will temper the influence of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, he says. In regards to Libya, moral posturing has blinded the Obama administration from recognizing that al-Qaeda affiliated jihadists who fought the U.S. in Iraq are among the rebels that Obama is now supporting, Ibrahim claims. He boils down the Libya crisis to inter-tribal warfare and that an opposition win would simply mean slaughter for western Libyans, which in turn would mean further anti-American incitement.
Victor David Hanson, writing at National Review Online, also skewers Obama’s policies toward the Middle East stating that his early overtures to Iran and his failure to coax Syria’s Bashar al-Assad from Iran’s orbit through diplomatic outreach represent a “humiliating failure” for the U.S. He also states that Obama missed a “golden opportunity” during the Green Movement protests in Iran to help topple an anti-American theocracy. On Syria, Hanson says it is “surreal” that the administration is calling Assad “a reformer” when Syrians themselves are trying to topple his regime. Hanson also criticizes Obama’s rationale for intervention in Libya on humanitarian grounds. The President failed to make the case that the situation in Benghazi would be worse than what is currently happening the Ivory Coast he says. He reduces Obama’s decision on Libya to based on the “likeability” of the opposition and, at the time, seemingly likely win against Muammar Gadhafi. He also points out that the European initiative on Libya, based largely on oil interests, also factored into the President’s calculus.
Posted in al-Qaeda, Civil War, Iran, Islamist movements, Libya, Military, Multilateralism, Syria, US foreign policy | Comment »
FDD Raises Concerns Over Libyan Islamists
April 4th, 2011 by Alec
Thomas Jocelyn, writing at the The Long War Journal (Foundation for the Defense of Democracies), raises concerns over reports from the Wall Street Journal that former Guantanamo Bay detainee Sufyan Ben Qumu is serving as a rebel commander along with two other ‘jihadists’ who fought against U.S. forces in Afghanistan, Abdul Hakim al Hasadi and Salah al Barrani. According to Jocelyn and the WSJ report, Ben Qumu has multiple ties to al-Qaeda and the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group (LIFG), an al-Qaeda affiliate. Despite the role of these three men in training rebel forces in Derna, the WSJ report claims that the role of of jihadist elements within the rebellion is small. Moreover, their expertise in fighting is badly needed by the inexperienced rebel leadership. Jocelyn states, however, that the continued role of jihadists in the rebel forces remains a concern for the U.S. as Derna is a “known stronghold for Islamist and jihadist extremists [...] and while the Derna rebels may be faithfully serving the rebellion’s secular leadership today, it remains to be seen what their plans are for the near future.”
Posted in al-Qaeda, Islamist movements, Libya, Terrorism | Comment »
Libya Updates: TNC Discusses Possible Ceasefire, Gains Support of Arab League
April 1st, 2011 by Naureen
On Friday, the Libyan Transitional National Council (TNC) leader, Mustafa Abdul-Jalil stated that the TNC would accept a ceasefire only if Gadhafi’s forces immediately withdraw from Libyan cities. The group also issued statements against terrorism and Al-Qaeda. U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates stated that al-Qaeda is unlikely to be able to “hijack” the uprisings in Libya and Senator Lindsay Graham (R-SC) also stated that there are “some very sophisticated people” leading the opposition in Libya and that he has no fear that Libya will turn into an “al-Qaeda driven state.” The Arab League also declared its support for the TNC and its goals.
Posted in al-Qaeda, Arab League, Democracy Promotion, Freedom, Human Rights, Libya | Comment »
Analysts Outline Yemeni Protests and Saleh’s Decline
April 1st, 2011 by Naureen
Christopher Boucek and Mara Revin, writing in CTC SENTINEL, discuss the unraveling of Saleh’s regime. The authors note the multi-dimensional security threats facing the country, “which may soon overwhelm the government in Sana’a” and state that if the current political system is to survive, the regime will have to engage with the opposition and civil society to reach a resolution to the current crisis. They also note how economic and political grievances have been festering for years in Yemen and outline how current protests unfolded beginning in January and the economic and political concessions Saleh has made thus far. Boucek and Revin also discuss the political consequences that have resulted from use of violence against protesters which led to a number of ministers and military officials resigning and tribal leaders publicly endorsing protests. They also discuss how al-Qaeda has sought to capitalize on the discontent and how U.S. counterterrorism operations may be at risk.
Posted in al-Qaeda, Civil Society, Democracy Promotion, Elections, Freedom, Human Rights, Protests, Reform, US foreign policy, Yemen | Comment »
POMED Notes: “Libya: Defining U.S. National Security Interests”
April 1st, 2011 by Naureen
On Thursday, the House Committee on Foreign Affairs held a hearing to discuss the current situation in Libya and U.S. involvement. The committee—chaired by Congresswoman Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL), with ranking member Howard Berman (D-CA) in attendance—, requested the testimony of Deputy Secretary James B. Steinberg.
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Posted in al-Qaeda, Arab League, Bahrain, Civil Society, Congress, Congressional Hearing Notes (House), Democracy Promotion, Diplomacy, Egypt, Foreign Aid, Freedom, Human Rights, Libya, Protests, sanctions, Sudan, Syria, Terrorism, Tunisia, United Nations, US foreign policy, Yemen | Comment »
Yemen Update: Leadership Transition Talks Stall, Islamists Launch Attacks
March 28th, 2011 by Alec
Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh has reportedly backed down from his earlier offer to step down from power by year’s end. Saleh also said he would offer no more concessions to the opposition while warning of the possibility of Yemen descending into civil war: “Yemen is a time bomb. Everyone will side with his tribe, and we will then end up with a destructive civil war.” However, Saleh’s ruling party, the General People’s Congress, did recommend forming a new government based on a parliamentary system along with drafting a new constitution. The rapidly deteriorating security situation in the country allowed Islamic militants, including al-Qaeda members to to seize the town of Jaar in southern Yemen on Sunday and ambush several Yemeni troops, killing six. Militants also took control of a weapons factory in Jaar that suffered an immense explosion on Monday that has killed at least 110 people including women and children so far.
Posted in al-Qaeda, Islamist movements, Protests, Reform, Terrorism, Yemen | Comment »
POMED Notes: “How Should the U.S. Respond to the Prospect of Islamist Governments?”
March 25th, 2011 by Kyle
On Friday, the Hudson Institute hosted an event focused on the transitional government processes taking place in Egypt and Tunisia as well as the unrest in the region and the role that Islamists will play, entitled, “How Should the U.S. Respond to the Prospect of Islamist Governments?” The event was moderated by Nina Shea, Senior Fellow and Director of the Center for Religious Freedom at the Hudson Institute. The panel of speakers consisted of: Ed Husain, Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations; Hedieh Mirahmadi, President of the World Organization for Resource Development; and Hillel Fradkin, Senior Fellow and Director of the Center on Islam, Democracy and the Future of the Muslim World at the Hudson Institute.
For full notes continue below, or click here.
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Posted in al-Qaeda, Civil Society, Democracy Promotion, Diplomacy, Egypt, Elections, Foreign Aid, Freedom, Human Rights, Islam and Democracy, Islamist movements, Military, Pakistan, Palestine, Political Islam, Protests, Reform, Turkey | Comment »
Report: “Yemen: The Final Days of Saleh?”
March 25th, 2011 by Kyle
On Thursday, the Project on Middle East Political Science released a series of articles compiled into a report discussing the unrest that has taken place in Yemen along with the regional and U.S. foreign policy implications. “The thirty-three year reign of Ali Abdullah Saleh as President of Yemen appears to be in serious jeopardy. Protests continue to spread through the country, even in the face of harsh repression. A wave of resignations from Saleh’s government suggests serious splits at the heart of the regime. The President’s offers to step down at the end of the year and to commence wide-ranging political reforms seem to be falling on deaf ears with a society which has grown skeptical after years of unmet promises. While nobody can predict how long the struggle will continue or how bloody it might become, it is becoming increasingly likely that major political change is coming sooner rather than later.”
Posted in al-Qaeda, Democracy Promotion, Diplomacy, Foreign Aid, Freedom, Human Rights, Islam and Democracy, Islamist movements, Protests, Reform, US foreign policy, Yemen | Comment »
Yemen: WSJ Reports Saleh Near Resignation Deal
March 24th, 2011 by Alec
According to the Wall Street Journal, Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh and General Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar are both near a deal to resign from their positions within the coming days to pave way for a civilian-led transitional government. Al-Ahmar defected from the Saleh camp to join the protest movement this week and had demanded the President step down immediately. Units loyal the General and the President squared off this week during the unrest.
Daniel L. Byman, of the Brookings Institution, cautions that the potential fall of Saleh in Yemen could make the country even more unstable with the possibility of civil war and increased risk of terrorism. Before the anti-government protests began, Yemen was already engaged in three civil conflicts: Houthi rebels in the north, a southern Yemeni rebellion, and the presence of AQAP (Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula) operating in the country. In Washington’s view, AQAP is the most worrisome problem, the group having orchestrated the failed 2009 Christmas Day airline bombing and the failed bombing attempts of two cargo planes in 2010 bound for the U.S. Saleh’s fall could pit all these elements, including opportunistic tribal rivalries, against one another. Saudi Arabi may even complicate matters by trying to get involved as well with financial attempts to manipulate the political landscape to ensure a pro-Saudi government.
Posted in al-Qaeda, Reform, Terrorism, US foreign policy, Yemen | Comment »
POMED Notes: “Popular Uprisings in the Middle East: The Implications for U.S. Policy”
March 18th, 2011 by Naureen
On Thursday, the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations held a hearing on the implications of uprisings in the Middle East has on U.S. policy. The Committee—chaired by Senator John Kerry (D-MA) – with ranking member Senator Dick Lugar (R-IN) in attendance –requested the testimony of William J. Burns, Under Secretary for Political Affairs.
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Posted in al-Qaeda, Arab League, Bahrain, Civil Society, Congressional Hearing Notes (Senate), Corruption, Democracy Promotion, Diplomacy, Egypt, Elections, Foreign Aid, Freedom, Gulf, Gulf Cooperation Council, Hezbollah, Human Rights, Iran, Iraq, Islam and Democracy, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Military, Morocco, Protests, Reform, sanctions, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, United Nations, US foreign policy, Yemen | Comment »
POMED Notes: Press Conference for Libyan Outreach Group
March 13th, 2011 by Naureen
On Friday, the Libyan Outreach Group held a press conference calling for recognition of the Libyan Transitional National Council. Speaking at the event were Aly R. Abuzaakouk, Executive Director of the Libyan Human and Political Forum; Dr. Naeem A Gheriany, founding member of the National Front for the Salvation of Libya in the early 1980s; Dr. Idris Traina, active member of the in the Libyan opposition since the 1970s; Ambassador Ali S. Aujali, Libya’s Ambassador to the United States until he resigned in February 2011; and Ambassador Abdel Rahmas Shalgam, Libya’s Ambassador to the United Nations who has renounced the Gadhafi regime. The ambassadors came directly from meetings with the Treasury Department and State Department officials to discuss how they can help the Libyan opposition.
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Posted in al-Qaeda, Democracy Promotion, Diplomacy, Foreign Aid, Freedom, Human Rights, Libya, Reform, United Nations, US foreign policy | Comment »
POMED Notes: “Chairman’s Forum with Senator Lindsey Graham”
March 11th, 2011 by Naureen
On Wednesday, the Stimson Center hosted a Chairman’s Forum with Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) where he discussed pragmatic approaches to national security. The event was moderated by Lincoln P. Bloomfield, Jr, chairman of the Stimson Center’s Board of Directors.
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Posted in al-Qaeda, Civil Society, Congress, DC Event Notes, Democracy Promotion, Diplomacy, Egypt, Elections, Foreign Aid, Freedom, Human Rights, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Military, Multilateralism, Muslim Brotherhood, Protests, Reform, sanctions, Tunisia, US foreign policy | Comment »
POMED Notes: “Revolution in the Middle East: A Trip Report by Senator John McCain and Senator Joseph Lieberman”
March 6th, 2011 by Kyle
On Thursday the Brookings Institute hosted an event focused on the recent trip of Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) and Sen. Joseph Lieberman (I-CT) to the Middle East entitled: “Revolution in the Middle East: A Trip Report by Senator John McCain and Senator Joseph Lieberman.” The event was opened by Strobe Talbott, President of the Brookings Institute and moderated by Robert Kagan, a Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institute.
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Posted in al-Qaeda, Bahrain, Civil Society, Diplomacy, Egypt, Foreign Aid, Freedom, Hezbollah, Human Rights, Iran, Islam and Democracy, Islamist movements, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Mideast Peace Plan, Muslim Brotherhood, North Africa, Palestine, Political Islam, Protests, Reform, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, US foreign policy, Yemen | Comment »
