Congressmen Donald Payne (D-NJ) and James McGovern (D-MA) along with Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) issued a joint statement last Thursday denouncing the “deteriorating human rights situation” in the country and their “support for the aspiration and peaceful struggle for the people of Bahrain.” They said that political alliances “must not allow” the U.S. from denouncing human rights abuses perpetrated against peaceful protesters. The three House Reps. also called for the release of detainees currently being held by the Bahraini regime as well as an international investigation into the deaths or protesters.
Rival Palestinian factions Fatah and Hamas have reportedly reached a deal to end their four year dispute according to Egyptian and Palestinian officials. Meetings between the officials of the two groups took place n Cairo under Egyptian auspices. The tentative plan calls for the formation of a single caretaker government with presidential and parliamentary elections to follow in a year’s time. Key questions over the control of rival security forces have not yet been answered.
Gonabadi Dervishes have, according to Radio Free Europe, begun protesting in the northeastern Iranian city of Beydokht in opposition of the summoning of their leader to court. A revolutionary court in Tehran has summoned the group’s leader Nour Ali Tabandeh charging him with threatening public health over burials at the city’s Soltani Shrine. The Iranian authorities maintain that such burials are illegal. Eight dervishes were arrested on April 13th for protesting the ban on Sufi burials at the shrine and encarcerated at Vakilabad prison in Mashhad.
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has missed two cabinet meetings since April 22 and has virtually disappeared from public life after his attempt to force Intelligence Minister Heydar Moslehi to resign was rejected by Ayatollah Ali Khameini. Wednesday’s absence from the cabinet meeting demonstrates the growing rift between the President and Ayatollah Khameini, who has final say in all state matters. Khameini recently spoke on Iranian state TV saying that he would intervene in government affairs when necessary. According to Meir Javedanfar, Khameini has remained largely silent on Ahmadinejad’s numerous cabinet firings during his seven years in office so far but has chosen to intervene to curb Ahmadinejad’s growing power within the regime. Javedanfar says that Khameini is worried about Ahmadinejad installing a political loyalist into the intelligence ministry and using ministry resources for personal political gain at the expense of the Ayatollah’s power. He also states that for the first time since assuming office, the possibility of Ahmadinejad resigning needs to be considered, although the changes of that remain small.
Germany has asked the European Union to explore the imposition of sanctions on Syria in response to the government’s violent crackdown on protesters. The U.K. has joined Germany in calling for sanctions while France, Spain, and Italy have summoned their respective Syrian ambassadors to voice condemnation of the crackdown. Sanctions could include a travel ban on Syrian leaders, asset freezes, and a halt to economic assistance from the Union. German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle said that if the Syrian government did not stop the violence that sanctions would be unavoidable. The U.N. Human Rights Council will hold a special session on Syria on Friday.
Writing at The Cable, Josh Rogin discusses the new policy course the Obama Administration will take in regards to Syria. He states that in light of the violent crackdowns and the lack of substantial reform over the past two weeks, the mood inside the administration has shifted. In the coming days we can “expect a new executive order on Syria, a draft presidential statement at the U.N. Security Council, new designations of Syrian officials as targets for sanctions, and a firmer tone on the violence that will include references to Iran’s unhelpful influence on Syria’s crackdown,” Rogin states. He notes, however, that the new sanctions will not target Syrian President Bashar al-Assad directly and there will be no calls for him to step down. Elliott Abrams, among others, has criticized the administration’s response, including President Barack Obama‘s statement on Friday, as too weak and too slow. This may have been due to the perception in the White House that protests in Syria would not have escalated this far, Rogin states. According to an administration official, “The general assessment [inside the administration] was that this wouldn’t happen, that Assad was too good at nipping these movements in the bud and also that he was not afraid to be brutal. All of these things combined made this more of a surprise and made it much harder to deal with.” George Washington University professor Marc Lynch states that the Assad regime’s use of force left the administration with no choice but to increase our involvement.
On Saturday, UAE authorities dissolved the board of directors of a the Jurist Association, a prominent civil society organization in the country and replaced its members with state appointees. Human Rights Watch (HRW) stated that the action is part of a broader crackdown on peaceful dissent by the government. Joe Stork, deputy Middle East director at HRW stated that “UAE authorities have staged a hostile takeover of one of the country’s leading rights groups. The government is reacting to domestic criticisms by banning websites, detaining peaceful activists, and intensifying its chokehold on civil society.”
HRW also called on the UAE government to release Ahmed Mansour and four other activists who have been detained for ”instigation, breaking laws and perpetrating acts that pose threat to state security, undermining the public order, opposing the government system, and insulting the President, the Vice President and the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi,” according to UAE Attorney General Salim Saeed Kubaish. HRW Middle East director Sarah Leah Whitson stated, “This shows how far the UAE has to go to become a rights-respecting country. All those being detained for speaking out against abuses should be immediately released.”
On Monday, White House spokesman Jay Carney addressing questions from the press on Syria, reiterated U.S. condemnation of the use of force by the Syrian government against demonstrators. Carney called on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to honor promises to lift the emergency law and institute reforms and in response to a question, Carney stated that having an ambassador in Syria “has been useful” as it has allowed the U.S. to “communicate directly what our positions and views are.”
He also noted how the situation in Syria differs greatly from that in Libya as Muammar Gadhafi‘s regime was “moving against its own people in a coordinated military fashion” with the promise that it would show no mercy. He also pointed to the international consensus and support of the Arab League the U.S. and its allies received before intervening in the country. Carney stated that the U.S. is looking at a range of options, including targeted sanctions to “make clear that this behavior is unacceptable.” However, he noted that the U.S. is not considering sending aid to the opposition, as suggested by Senator Joe Lieberman (I-CT), given the fact that “there is not an organized opposition to whom we would give aid at this point.”
Last week, Freedom House released its report on internet freedom in 37 countries around the world. The report found that while the number of internet users have increased, “governments have stepped up efforts to regulate, and in some instance tightly control, the new medium.” The study highlights the increase in the number of blocked and filtered sites as well as the arrest of bloggers and internet users posting information contrary to the government’s views. It also notes the fact that a large number of governments, such as Saudi Arabia, have deliberately blocked access to information related to politics, social issues, and human rights. It also notes the sophistication of these regimes to filter and control content or even shut down the internet, as was the case in Egypt. The report notes that intensified censorship and arrest of users came “in the context of popular protests or contentious elections” in countries like Bahrain, Iran and Tunisia and highlights the importance of sites such as Facebook, YouTube, and Twitter in social and political activism during the recent and ongoing events Egypt, Tunisia, and Bahrain. In the study, Jordan was listed as a “country at risk” due to the monitoring of some activity by authorities and the adoption of a new law on cybercrimes that may be used to limit free expression on the internet.
Jordan, Turkey and Egypt received a “Partly Free” designation while Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia and Iran were labeled as “Not Free.” Iran received the lowest internet freedom score due to the internet restrictions put in place following the 2009 Green Revolution, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard’s stake in the Telecommunications Company of Iran and the banning of encrypted e-mail sites like Gmail.
Tunisian Prime Minister Beji Caid Sebsiannounced that the senior officials of the former ruling Constitutional Democratic Rally (RCD) party are banned from participating in the country’s July 24th elections. The ban also applies to top aides to ousted president Zine el Abidine Ben Ali. Tunisia’s Justice Minister Lazhar Karoui Chebbi announced that he is seeking to try Ben Ali on 18 charges, including murder and drug trafficking. To this end, he is exploring means of extraditing him from Saudi Arabia.
Given the uncertainty surrounding events in the Middle East, CNN.com asked five experts to address how the “Arab Spring” will play out in the coming months. Ibrahim Sharqieh, deputy director of the Brookings Doha Center, states that in the coming months we will see a new paradigm for political transition in the Middle East as dictators use more forceful means to quell popular uprisings. Nader Hashemi notes the misnomer of ”Arab Spring” given the differing internal dynamics of the countries, but notes that the days are numbered for Arab dictators. Parag Khanna, senior research fellow with the New America Foundation, argues that the region is likely to remain volatile especially in Egypt during the lead up to parliamentary elections and in Bahrain where the government has suppressed the opposition instead of addressing its concerns. He also notes the role the International Monetary Fund and the Gulf countries can play in supporting structural economic modernization throughout the region.
Julie Taylor, a political scientist at the RAND Corp., stated that in the next six months, we will likely see regime change in Yemen and Libya. Taylor also notes the Syrian armed forces commitment to President Bashar al-Assad and the strong support the regime will likely receive from Iran for a mass crackdown. Feryal Cherif draws parallels between the events in Egypt and those in Syria where both leaders offered concessions in hopes of appeasing protesters, but tended to remain a step behind protesters’ demands. She notes, however, that Syria lacks the presence of a strong civil society and experience with activism, which will likely hinder their movement.
In addition to the White House’s condemnation on Friday of the Syrian government’s violent repression of protests, the US has voiced support for freezing regime assets abroad, has openly opposed Syria’s election to the UN Human Rights Council–it was previously considered an shoo-in for an allotted Asia seat, and is reported to support a UN Security Council draft resolution by the United Kingdom, France and Germany condemning the Syrian government’s actions. A vote on the resolution is expected within the next 48 hours. UN high commissioner for human rights, Navi Pillay, has also condemned the government’s actions calling them “erratic” in the wake of “paper reforms.”
Radwan Ziadeh, visiting George Washington University visiting scholar and Syrian human rights activist, reports that the US is currently petitioning for a special meeting the the UN Human Rights Council to address events in Syria.
The Pew Research Center published a poll on Egypt’s political outlook on Tuesday, offering the “first credible” statistical insight of the political trends in post-revolutionary Egypt. Researchers conducted personal interviews with 1,000 Egyptian adults between 24 March and 7 April. Generally, the poll shows a highly favorable view of the military, and split support for the Muslim Brotherhood, the April 6 Movement and Ayman Nour’s Al-Ghad party. The New York Time’s coverage of the poll highlighted the optimism most Egyptian feels about the trajectory of the country. In contrast, Ahram Online, focused on the more than half of Egyptians who do not want to keep the peace treaty with Israel or maintain an Israeli embassy in the country, as well as the mere 36 percent of Egyptians who believe Coptic Christians should be able to freely practice their religion. Haaretz’s analysis emphasized that college-educated Egyptians are more likely to support the peace treaty than the working class.
A recent Financial Times op-ed underscores worries about Egypt’s liberal bloc, “Unfortunately, much of the energy of liberal Egypt seems to be focused on pursuing the old regime rather than preparing for the future.” The April 6 Movement announced its withdrawal from the Revolutionary Youth Coalition (RYC), citing the coalition’s interference in the movement’s internal affairs. April 6 seeks to create a comprehensive umbrella coalition that can participate in parliamentary elections.
Habib al-Adly, Egypt’s ex-interior minister, has been charged along with six former aides for ordering to killings of protesters during the country’s revolution. His case was immediately adjourned until late May. Al-Adly was also the first member of the old regime to be tried for embezzlement, to which he plead not guilty. 846 people were killed and several thousand wounded during 18 days of street protests that ousted president Hosni Mubarak on February 11.
The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF), which heads Egypt’s transitional government, denied reports that it was under financial pressure from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to not prosecute former president Mubarak.
Last week, the National Democratic Institute released a report outlining the results of a qualitative study to explore what Tunisia’s youth think and feel about the past, present and future of their country. The information will be used to ensure the Tunisian political elites understand and address the expectations of the youth during the transition process and develop outreach strategies to increase youth involvement. The study, which looks at data compiled from ten focus groups in nine cities across the country, shows that the Tunisian youth are excited about voting and participating in the first free election to be held in their lifetime and hope to play a meaningful role in the unfolding transition. The report also highlights youth fear that the transition will be co-opted by individuals and elite groups ”attempting to profit from the revolution for personal gain,” noting the non-transparent process thus far. Additionally, the findings demonstrate that the political parties and civil society organizations are unknown by the youth today, due to their severe repression under former President Zine Ben Ali.
Walter Russel Meadargues that U.S. justifications for intervention in Libya, humanitarian and strategic, are more evident in Syria, especially following the killings of the past weekend. Aside from Syria’s role in supporting extremist groups, Mead argues that pressuring Iran would rekindle US-Saudi relations.
Israeli officials are debating whether or not it is in Israel’s interests to see regime change in Damascus. “We prefer the devil we know,” said Ephraim Sneh, a former deputy defense minister. Dore Gold, a former foreign policy adviser to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, argued that undermining Iran’s influence with a pro-Western regime in Damascus presents a huge policy opportunity. The debate provoked Martin Kramer to dismiss whether Israel’s preferences matter at all for Syria’s future. Kramer added,”It’s not the 1950s. So sit back, watch the show, hope for the best, prepare for the worst.”
Shadi Hamid argues that the Middle Eastern countries that are most susceptible to revolution are the republics; witness Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen, Libya, and perhaps Algeria. In these countries, an unpopular president allows for disparate opposition elements to unite for the purpose of effecting regime change. However, in monarchies like Jordan and Bahrain, says Hamid, Kings draw on “greater historical and religious legitimacy” despite being capable of repression like republican autocrats. They also tend to hold reasonably free polls and allow legal opposition, creating a veneer of reform while concentrating real power in the ruling family. In contrast, rulers in Tunisia and Egypt resorted to “flagrantly rigged elections” to maintain power. Hamid further argues that Kings can always claim ‘plausible deniability’ when things go wrong and can blame and dismiss government while staying above the fray. Despite new calls for constitutional monarchies in places like Jordan, Bahrain, and Morocco, these ruling families still stand a good chance of remaining in power. Pro-democracy opposition, he says, will have to find a new model for change: “No matter what they do, it won’t be easy. Let’s just hope it won’t be bloody.”
On Monday, a Yemeni opposition source told Reuters that the opposition has fully accepted a plan created by the Gulf Cooperation Council for Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh to step down. The source also said that the opposition would participate in the transitional government. The plan, which transfers power to the Vice President and grants Saleh immunity, was initially rejected by the opposition who called for Saleh to step down immediately. Other members of the opposition rejected the plan with the demand that Saleh be prosecuted.
In an interview with The Cairo Review of Global Affairs, Senator John McCain (R-AZ) expressed his belief that the U.S. should resume its leadership of NATO operations in Libya, recognize the Transitional National Council as the “legitimate voice of the Libyan people,” and arm the rebels lest the situation turns into a stalemate which empowers al-Qaeda or Muammar Gadhafi‘s regime. He also called on President Barack Obama to formally declare that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has lost his legitimacy as a ruler by slaughtering his own people. However, he cautioned against calls for regime change as failure to secure regime change could hurt the United States’ credibility. He also stated his opposition to direct U.S. involvement in Syria noting that he does not see a way for the U.S. to help the opposition in any way other than through expressions of solidarity with the protesters.
Discussing Egypt, Senator McCain stressed the importance of ensuring a successful transition in Egypt given the regional importance of the country. He expressed his belief that the Supreme Military Council under the leadership of General Mohamed Tantawi has handled the transition “very well so far.” The Senator also expressed his concern over the situation in Yemen where it is unclear what will come next. McCain also noted the different situations and complexities in the various protest movements across the Middle East and also noted the impact it has had in places like China and Russia.
