A blog about all things green, from conservation to Capitol Hill

On the Road with a Geiger Counter in Japan

FUKUSHIMA — A Geiger counter isn't something you ever want to know how to use. It's definitely not something you want to need. Not that it's an intimidating piece of equipment – the one I used last week in Japan was roughly the size of a mobile phone circa 1998. Our Terra MKS-05, made in the Ukraine, almost blended into the miscellany of four days on the road in rural Japan: empty coffee cups, gum, onigiri wrappers, Geiger counter. But its quiet, insistent beeping, constantly calibrating and recalibrating the levels of radioactive material in the atmosphere, was a constant reminder that the bucolic scenery out the window was immutably — if invisibly — altered.

I've wanted to take a road trip through Japan since I moved to Asia in 2007. But until March, I had never made it out from under the shadow of Tokyo Tower to see the fabled countryside that I envisioned as the engine driving the capital's intense aestheticism. In the end, it was the fact that the Japanese countryside is the quite literally the engine of Tokyo that took me there. Rural prefectures host most of Japan's nuclear power plants, receiving tax money from the utilities that run them. Many have criticized the relationship, saying the host prefectures amount to little more than economic colonies of the capital. In Iitatemura, a village nearly 25 miles away from the damaged Fukushima power plant, residents living with some of the highest levels of radiation from the disaster are incensed. “It's Tokyo's electricity,” a woman in a local beauty salon fumed. “Why are we suffering?”

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Whales in Motion

“They say the sea is cold,” D.H. Lawrence wrote, “but the sea contains the hottest blood of all.” Whales aren't just physically majestic, but as warm-blooded mammals who give birth to live young, they provide a human link to an underwater region that can often feel so alien. Still, between the last vestiges of whale hunting and newer threats like oil spills and noise pollution, human beings remain the greatest threat to the survival of whales. The amazing images captured by Charles Nicklin should serve as a reminder that whales, as much as we do, deserve life on this blue planet. Check out his photo gallery here.

        

How many did Chernobyl kill? More than 4,000....

April 26 will mark the 25th anniversary of the Chernobyl nuclear accident. I'll be publishing a story on the day that, with the help of TIME's Kiev-based stringer James Marson, will show how the effects of the meltdown continue to be felt in the region. Nuclear accidents require the work of generations to clean-up. That's a troubling lesson for Japan.

One piece of information both James and I have found almost impossible to ascertain is the number of people actually killed by the release of radiation during the disaster. The authoritative figure often cited comes from a UN's World Health Organization's press release dated Sept. 5, 2005 that states that "A total of up to 4000 people could eventually die of radiation exposure from the Chernobyl nuclear power plant (NPP) accident nearly 20 years ago."

Turns out, however, that this figure was never meant to be the definitive estimate.

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Brand Fukushima: Can Fishing and Farming Recover?

In the fishing town of Iwaki, uni is sold in the local market steamed, on the clamshell. Starting each May, free divers wearing weight belts and flippers gather urchin from a small cove and haul the spiny globes to shore in woven baskets. For years, tourists have been coming to this port in Fukushima prefecture to taste Iwaki's uni, and a small group of fishermen have lived year-round on what they make in a summer from the delicacy.

But this year, a week before the season should begin, the Fukushima government has asked that uni and abalone fishing be put on hold. The Iwaki name is no longer a selling point; it's a liability. On a house perched above town, Shoichi Manome's baskets and diving gear sit waiting in the driveway. The head of the local fisherman's association, Manome has been asking the prefectural government to test the waters off Iwaki, over 21 miles south of the damaged Fukushima power plant, to see if the levels of radioactive material are, indeed, too high to fish. “If I say I'm not nervous to go in the water right now, that would be lie,” Manome says. But, he stresses, “We don't know the numbers yet.”

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April 20, the one-year anniversary of the beginning of the Gulf oil spill, has no shortage of news events. Environmentalists and fishermen along the Gulf coast offered tours of the shoreline, to show the spots where the oil still remained. BP—with its impeccable sense of timing—lodged a $40 billion lawsuit against Transocean, the Swiss drilling company that operated the Deepwater Horizon, and separate suits against other contractors. Republicans in Congress marked the anniversary of the biggest oil spill in U.S. history with a call to renew and expand drilling in the Gulf of Mexico. “Safety reforms have been implemented, new technology has been deployed and the Gulf is ready to get back to work to help create jobs and lower gasoline prices,” said Doc Hastings, the chair of the House Natural Resources Committee, in a statement.

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David Zalubowski / AP

For all the fear about the potential for deep underground water contamination due to the hydraulic fracturing process used in shale gas extraction, there's always been a much more present danger: the risk of something going wrong at the surface. From simple spills to industrial accidents to the ongoing problem of wastewater disposal, the rapid expansion of shale gas drilling will inevitably bring risks, even if it's done well. You don't have to fear the contamination of underground aquifers to worry about the impacts of shale gas drilling. Indeed, this afternoon—a year after the BP oil spill—a Chesapeake Energy gas well in northeastern Pennsylvania reportedly suffered a blowout, spilling thousands of gallons of fracking fluid water on the surrounding ground. It's not the first such blowout—and it likely won't be the last.

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How China Can Take the Wheel on Electric Cars

Here in the U.S. there's a lot of excitement that 2011 could really be the Year of the Electric Car. GM is coming out with its plug-in model the Volt, Nissan has the all-electric Leaf and Ford has announced a line of plug-ins, hybrids and electrics. Throw in outside-the-box ideas like the Israeli startup Better Place, along with government support from the White House, and we could be looking at a battery-powered transport future.

But guess what–that transformation might happen somewhere else first. A new study prepared for the World Bank Transport Office in Beijing makes the case that China stands to lead and benefit from the global race to move to electric cars, perhaps faster than anywhere else—though significant obstacles could block that progress. "I don't necessarily see China running away with this," says Oliver Hazimeh, the head of the global e-mobility practice and a partner at PRTM, a management consultancy that put together the report. "But given the amount of money and resources that China can push at this, they will be extremely important."

The study analyzes Beijing's New Energy Vehicles Program, as well as the Ten Cities, Ten Thousand Vehicles Programs—to government initiatives launched in 2009 to create pilot programs for electric cars in a number of major Chinese cities. There's no shortage of money behind the programs—China is committed to spending $15 billion on building and selling electric cars over the next five years. The government is already providing consumer incentives for Chinese drivers who want to go electric, and there is significant investment on research and development for electric cars—especially in battery technology. "They've allowed regions to do some experimenting, to see what strategies might work best," says Hazimeh.

But money isn't really the obstacle to the development of electric cars in China. There are policy and logistical challenges—there's little infrastructure for charging private vehicles, even less than what's available in the U.S. And then there's the issue of customer acceptance. China is still in the middle stages of the automobile transition. The newly rich see cars as status symbols, so they want BMWs and Mercedes, or cars with powerful engines—not small electrics—while members of the rising middle class who might be buying their first car can't necessarily afford the electric premium. (In the U.S., by contrast, automakers can count on a class of early adopters willing to spend more on electric vehicles, either for green reasons or simply to look cool.) "The demographics of the buying public are very different from what we see elsewhere," says Hazimeh. "That's one major challenge, but it won't be the last."

Still, China stands to uniquely benefit from a switch to electric cars. One is simple air pollution—the smog in cities like Beijing is simply horrific, and the prospect of adding millions more gasoline--powered cars won't improve it. An electric fleet would be largely less polluting. But China, like the U.S., also has worries about dependency on foreign oil—half of its oil comes from abroad—and it's only likely to get worse. China's oil consumption is expected to rise from 7.6 million barrels a day in 2007 to 11.6 million barrels a day by 2020. "The government is definitely aware of those numbers," says Hazimeh.

The study recommends $50 million in loans for pilot projects, including building better charging infrastructure. But Beijing doesn't really need international help. China's advantage is that the sheer rate of turnover in the country's fleet means that it may be able to introduce electric cars sooner to consumers who haven't become accustomed to a gasoline-powered life. The country's automotive market is expected to grow to 30 million vehicles per year by 2030, up from 12.9 million in 2009. That—plus steady and heavy government assistance—might be enough to give China the lead in the electric car race.

More from TIME:

China's Electric Car Power Play

        

There aren't a whole lot of scientific disciplines that haven't had something to say about climate change over the years — and with good reason. When a problem is global in scale there's a universe of specialists and subspecialists who have to pitch in to to fix it — meteorologists, chemists, geologists, physicists, zoologists, biologists, astronomers and more. But one field — psychology — has never had much skin in the game. It's less important to consider how humans feel about the mess we've made of our planet, after all, than how we clean it up.

That, at least, has always been the thinking. Increasingly, however, psychologists are making the case that the best way to resolve any crisis and prevent it from happening again is to understand the minds of the people who caused it. And that means all six billion of us.

The newest issue of the American Psychologist is devoted largely to making that case, with a series of articles by a team of psychologists from around the country exploring the thinking, feelings and other cognitive processes that have allowed us to be so heedless with our world — and could be harnessed to help us take better care of it. The papers are by illuminating, surprising and, well, occasionally risible — which is what often happens when scientists are feeling their way in a relatively new field and fall back on jargon and other linguistic gobbledygook to try to make it make sense. Still, with climate change only growing worse and the U.S. in particular seeming unable or unwilling to do much about it, new perspectives are always welcome and badly needed.

"Psychologists should help, first of all because we can," writes lead author Janet Swim of Penn State University in one of the new papers. "Further efforts to improve understanding of the psychological processes related to climate change ... can help humanity effectively mitigate and adapt."

One of the first thing scientists do in trying to wrestle a big problem to the ground is simplify and clarify it, with a nice, clear equation if possible — and the climate psychologists are no exception. If you want to devise policies to make people more climate conscious, they argue, all you have to remember is I=tpn.  Less obtusely put, that means the impact of any behavioral change will be equal its  technical potential to fix the problem, times the behavioral plasticity required to comply with it, times the number of people who actually do comply.

Take recycling of plastic bottles. It is a technically powerful step since it gets millions of tons of plastics out of the waste stream. It requires little behavioral plasticity since people are going to throw their trash out every day anyway; all they have to do is remember to put their bottles in the blue bin instead of the garbage can. And with 300 million Americans consuming billions of gallons of beverages every year, even partial compliance adds up to very big numbers.

Of course, recycling plastic bottles makes little contribution to addressing global warming — and those behavioral changes that do are rarely so straightforward and easy. Insulating your attic is technically simple and very effective, but it takes a lot of behavioral plasticity before anyone will actually get up and do it. Buying a hybrid car can do a lot of good too — but until the prices come way down and the selection goes way up not a lot of people are going to do it. "Behavioral science understandably focuses on the p," writes psychologist Paul Stern of the National Research Council. "However, in setting policy priorities, t and n are critical to take into account."

There's  a certain intellectual seductiveness that goes with this kind of writing — but it doesn't always bear close examination. Who doesn't already know that hybrid cars are too bloody expensive? Who doesn't know that insulating you attic is a colossal chore? Labeling one of these basic truths n and the other t does not change their value a whit. Stern slides further down the slippery slope of academic obviousness in the same paper when he writes about how to motivate people to practice ESB (environmentally significant behavior) and PEB (pro-environmental behavior.) Are these actions that really require new acronyms?

Still, there's more merit to this kind of formalizing and quantifying than there seems — running even the most self-evident ideas through a sort of empricizing machine, the better to make sure that the more substantive conclusions that come later are provable and repeatable. The other papers in the American Psychologist package provide evidence of how that works.

Denial, for example, is a powerful driver of human behavior, and the investigators do a good job of explaining how it's at play in the environmental sphere.  Norway, which consistently tops global lists for enlightened policies concerning education, health care, social welfare and more is incongruously near the bottom in accepting the role humans play in causing climate change. Why? Because oil production and sales are central to Norway's prosperity. The better you understand how denial plays out — and the more deeply you study the minds of the deniers themselves — the better you can design messages and policies that penetrate that fog.

Americans are all over the map in their reactions to climate change — with emotions ranging from concern to caution to disengagement (33%, 19%, 12% of respondents respectively). Guilt, despair, doubt, grief and anger also come into play, depending on which groups are polled and how questions are framed. Politicians have long known that until you understand what motivates your constituency you can't persuade them to take any action at all — which is why naturally intuitive leaders like Bill Clinton or Ronald Reagan have always done better than less attuned ones like Jimmy Carter or Richard Nixon. But even Al Gore — no one's idea of a naturally empathic or emotive man — learned to tap into the primal feelings people have in response to climate change and made a huge difference in waking people up to the problem. Imagine if a Clinton or Reagan had done the same.

Other studies cited in the papers show the value of looking behind what seems unsurprising, since some unexpected variables may be lurking there. When carpool lanes were made available in cities, people who chose to continue to drive alone scored very high when they were asked how much they valued flexibility and independence in getting to and from work and very low when asked how important it was to cut their commuting costs. No surprise there — except that further questioning revealed  that the same people scored much closer to the middle in both categories before the carpool lanes were made available. In effect, they made their commuting decisions first, then adjusted their value scale to justify the choice. Such ex post facto reasoning plays out in even the most disciplined thinkers.

There's also a lot to be learned from our habits of consumption, particularly the way carbon-intensive products we merely want quickly become ones we believe we need. When microwave ovens were first introduced in the 1970s they were a curiosity that few people bothered to own. Even by 1996, only 32% of Americans described microwaves as a necessity — though more than 32% actually owned them. By 2006, that necessity figure had leapt to 68%. A lot more people could have been persuaded to go microwave-free in the 1990s than today — something that would have been good to know at the time.

The papers sound some cautionary notes as well — ones that may do less to illuminate human behavior than to scare us into action before it's too late. Despair, the authors explain, is one of the most pervasive reactions to the enormity of the climate change crisis — and one of the most dangerous ones too. People who have truly given up believing that there's any solution to a problem also quit doing anything about it. If you're in the market for a new car, why not just buy a Hummer since the planet is going to hell anyway? That's the kind of thinking it pays to prevent early. And for all the perils of climate change — droughts, floods, hurricanes — it's the simple rise in temperature that could pose the ugliest problem. The causal link between heat and violence has long been established — which is why murder rates tend to rise in the summer, especially in crowded cities. According to one study cited in the journal, every 2 degree Fahrenheit (1.1 C) increase in global temperature will lead to 24,000 more murders or assualts in the U.S. per year.

There's still time, of course, to reverse — or at least slow — our environmental decline before we start turning on one another this way. Psychologists may always play more of a supporting than leading role in making that happen, but it's a critical role nonetheless. It's time we began listening to what they have to say.

        

Today marks a year after the Macondo well in the Gulf of Mexico blew out, destroying the Deepwater Horizon and beginning the worst oil spill in U.S. history. We've worked up a few pieces that look back at the effects of the spill, and look forward on the future of offshore drilling. Click on them here:

And if you need a refresher on just what went down along the Gulf coast last summer, check out Kayla Webley's timeline of the first 100 days of the spill.

        

I have a Going Green piece up on the mainpage that examines the ecological impact of the BP oil spill on the Gulf and its coast, a year after the Deepwater Horizon sunk. The verdict: so far the environmental damage seems much less than many scientists feared initially, thanks to an aggressive response, hungry bacteria and a lot of good luck. But crude still remains entrenched in parts of the Louisiana coast and parts of the Gulf floor are heavy with oiled microbes and invertebrates. A year isn't long enough to draw definite conclusions—the experience of the Exxon Valdez spill tells us that there may be long-term effects that have yet to be felt. Still—could have been worse.

Read the piece here.