THE IRANIAN CONNECTION

The Iranian government has a cadre of "hundreds" of technical advisers in Lebanon that trained, and continue to support, Hezbollah forces in the use of sophisticated anti-ship and anti-tank missiles and unmanned aircraft. No evidence has yet emerged, however, that the Iranians are actually operating any weaponry in the fighting, say U.S. officials.

"It's not just a matter of turning weapons over to Hezbollah," a U.S. intelligence official says. "They also have to provide the training [for such advanced weapons]." Other munitions possessed by Iran (particularly those bought from Russia) have not been used in the Lebanon/Israel conflict, because the provenance would be obvious and, in some cases, "the Iranians don't want to be associated with that," he says. Nonetheless, "there is evidence that Iranians are in the country training Hezbollah." They remain in Lebanon, but until late last week appeared to have avoided direct participation in combat.

That situation may have changed, however, with the discovery of papers on the bodies of soldiers killed in Southern Lebanon on Aug. 9 that identified them as members of Iran's Revolutionary Guards. "There's a possibility they could have been operating systems, but they weren't necessarily fighting. It could have been a case of being at the wrong place at the wrong time," the intelligence official said.

"Despite a couple of reports that the Iranians were at the controls of rocket launchers in the early part of the conflict, that's not our conclusion," the U.S. intelligence official says. "The group was originally in the hundreds. We haven't seen any large numbers leave." The Iranian government denies that they have advisers or trainers in Lebanon. The U.S. State Dept. says the Iranians provide arms and funding, but won't answer questions about advisers. Israel Defense Forces (IDF) sources put the number of advisers at about 100.

U.S. ANALYSTS WON'T confirm that the Hezbollah UAV shot down in the Mediterranean by Israeli fighters last week was operated by Iranians or even Iranian-trained insurgents. But, obtaining the aircraft and learning how to launch and program its flight "would have taken outside help," the intelligence official says. Hezbollah's first recorded incursion into Israeli airspace with a UAV occurred in late 2004.

An IDF infrared video taken from high altitude, directly over the interception, shows an Israeli F-16 (from 110 Sqdn. at Ramat David AB) attacking the UAV. Shortly before coming abreast of the unmanned craft, the fighter fires what was likely a Python 4 missile controlled by a helmet-mounted sight. The missile makes a rapid turn of more than 100 deg. and strikes the UAV, just after the fighter passes it. The film may have been doctored to hide the true infrared picture of the Israeli fighter.

Fragments of the UAV recovered from the water by the IDF shows a 10-ft.-wide wing broken in two at the fuselage with twin vertical stabilizers (marked with Hezbollah insignia) well inboard of the wingtips (see center photo). An unattached flight control appears to be from the smaller canard airfoil attached to the forward fuselage.

International aerospace industry officials, without being specific, say that countries other than Iran are also working with various insurgent groups in the region, including Hezbollah. They point out Russian anti-aircraft missile sales to Syria and the Mar. 3 visit of a Hamas delegation to Moscow. U.S. intelligence analysts say Syria is supplying some arms to Hezbollah, but not at the level of Iran, nor does it appear to have training cadres in Lebanon. They contend that while Chinese weaponry is being used, it was either transferred in the 1990s or came from illegal sales through intermediaries. The U.S. recently announced a two-year trade sanction against arms trader Rosoboronexport for selling the TOR-M1 (SA-15 Gauntlet) air defense missile system to Iran. That move may backfire since Russian support is critical to U.N. approval of any U.S.-orchestrated cease-fire agreement in Lebanon.

So far, the most spectacular use of a Chinese weapons system was the attack on the Hanit, an Israeli Saar 5 missile corvette. Hezbollah operators appear to have fired two C-802 anti-ship missiles in a high-low flight profile against the Israeli ship. The turbojet-powered C-802 has a range of up to 120 km. (74.5 mi.) and a 155-kg. (341-lb.) blast-fragmentation warhead. Damage to the Saar 5 did not reflect a direct hit by a weapon in this class, however, which suggests either a glancing blow or a partial warhead failure. Two impact areas appear to be visible on the Hanit--one amidship, the other at the front of the helicopter deck. Both are just above the waterline. The second missile sank a merchant ship. Other analysts are suggesting that the Hanit may have been hit by one or more short-range missiles while a single high-trajectory C-802 served as a decoy for the ship's defenses. That view may be supported by the fact that the ship appears to have been within the minimum range required by the C-802 to function properly.