Mud, vodka, chaos and crime? Not any more

Fold up those old stereotypes and put them in the cupboard: two decades after the dust settled on communism, “eastern Europe” has come of age—and is ready to junk its out-of-date label. In 2011 what was once the ex-communist part of Europe will no longer look any worse than or different from the luckier lands to the west of the old Iron Curtain.

Take politics. The old stereotype was that “east” European governments were unstable and chaotic. Not any more. Almost the longest-serving prime minister in the European Union next year will be Andrus Ansip of Estonia, in office since April 2005 (he’s beaten only by the eternal Jean-Claude Juncker of Luxembourg and the embattled José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero of Spain). Poland’s Donald Tusk, likely to win re-election in late 2011, will be that country’s longest-serving prime minister since 1989 and another of the new breed of quietly impressive leaders.

Dump too the old stereo-type about corruption: it will be increasingly clear that the dividing line is north-south, not east-west. Estonia and Slovenia already do better than Spain, Italy or Portugal in anti-corruption rankings (and almost all the “east Europeans” do better than “west” European Greece, which is actually in the continent’s far south-east). The coming year will bring a crop of pleasing upgrades in league tables ranging from competitiveness to creditworthiness.

Having been scared by the phantom danger of default and devaluation during the downturn, investors are now reassessing their prejudices: there will be booming investment and rising living standards in places like Poland. Estonia will join the euro zone at the start of 2011, bringing investors piling in, whereas countries like Greece will languish in the danger zone.

The generous sowing of EU money will start bearing real fruit in 2011. New highways and faster railways will erode painful memories of squalid trains and bumpy roads. A new bridge over the Danube between Romania and Bulgaria will open in late 2011, ending one of the most scandalous bottlenecks in Europe.

Introducing the ACES in Europe’s pack

Nor will it be fair to see the ex-communist countries as marginal in diplomatic terms. Poland, newly friendly with France, Germany and Russia, will have its chair firmly pulled up to the big boys’ table in 2011, just as Spain’s place looks increasingly precarious. The Obama administration will hold the biggest military exercise so far in the Baltic region in 2011, underlining its commitment to the security of Poland and the always-jumpy Baltic states.

Finally, forget the old notion of a region living in fear of Russian energy cut-offs. Latvia and Lithuania are building a “power bridge” to Sweden. Other countries will be well on their way to building terminals to import liquefied natural gas or to developing their own gas reserves. Spurred by Poland and Hungary, the European Union will finance interconnecting pipelines from north to south, breaking Russia’s old east-to-west gas monopoly.

So, by the end of 2011, life in most of the newish eastern members of the EU will be a lot better, and their prospects a lot brighter, than ever before in their history. It will be time to find them a new name. How about the ACES—the “advancing countries of Europe”?