The EU lays off hundreds of Syrians as it suspends all aid programs for Syria. In a sweeping decision to punish the government for its violent crackdown on the protest movement, the EU will cease all all aid and shut down energy programs and development. Royal Dutch Shell is being pressured to quite the country as well. The construction of a 724-mw combined cycle electric plant near Deir al-Zor will come to an end. Who will be hurt more: the regime or the people? Perhaps European politicians calculate that it doesn’t matter because in the end there will be plenty of pain to go around. The object seems to be to bring Syrian economy to a standstill in the hope of bringing down the government.

In the meantime, Tunisia and Egypt are being promised 40 billion dollars. G-8: Nations, Banks to Give $40B for Arab Spring. A clear carrot and stick is being established to encourage regime-change in Syria.

Time: Syria: If Protesters Don’t Get Assad, the Economy Will
2011-05-27

As the crisis in Syria continues, many observers are beginning to say that if the protesters cannot overthrow the regime, the economy will. With political uncertainty at a suffocating level, the Syrian pound has fallen against the U.S. dollar. As a result, Syrians are feverishly hauling their money out of banks — about 8% of all banks deposits have been withdrawn — and shifting it into more stable foreign currencies. GDP was predicted to grow at a steady 6% this year. Now, predictions are closer to a negative 3% contraction. “I think the crackdown on protesters will succeed in the next two months,” a senior western diplomat in Syria says. “But in six months time, the economy will have taken such a battering that [President Bashar al-]Assad will have lost the support of the majority of Syrians.”

The economy had been key to Assad’s popular standing before the uprising. Portraying himself as a political and economic reformer, Syria’s President spent the last five years moving away from the socialist, centrally planned economy that has failed Syrians. With a team of economic liberalizers, Assad began to open up the economy to the private sector, encourage free trade and reduce subsidies. Tourism started to boom and foreign investment began flooding in. Suddenly, middle-class Syrians were able to afford new cars and houses. Consumerism developed as cheap foreign products, like Chinese TVs and heaters, entered the market. The espresso-drinking urban business class grew.

Now, however, the pillars of the new Syria are collapsing. Today, people are not buying cars. Actually, nobody is spending at all in Syria. People are working fewer hours and there are widespread layoffs — some companies have stopped paying salaries. In three months, Syria’s economy has gone from growth to slump even as the government is desperately trying to pay off its disobedient citizens with subsidies — money it does not have.

Tourism, which possibly accounted for up to 18% of the entire economy, was the first to go. A year ago, sandal-clad and camera-wielding hordes of European tourists would shuffle through the cobble-stoned souk of Old Damascus, who patronized the businesses of cocky young Syrians, many of whom speak five languages to cater to the flow of foreigners. Now the tourist touts sit on small plastic stools and drink sweet tea in their shops full of dusty carpets and silver trinkets. “The Old City is still safe, but it’s empty,” one shopkeeper said as he tried to sell a box of old coins from Syria’s eastern deserts, a once-popular souvenir here.

Most travel insurance companies have blacklisted the country; and Middle East tour groups are now avoiding Syria altogether, even choosing to fly from Turkey to Jordan, rather than busing through the country as they used to do. The shopkeepers of Damascus say many tourist companies have closed and the boutique hotels of the capital and Aleppo, the country’s largest city, are empty. “We will have to close soon,” one said.

The next economic support to go will be foreign investment. With dwindling oil reserves, the Syrian government has been betting on foreign investment to pay for more than half of all government spending over the coming years. Would-be investors are now waiting to see if the situation stabilizes or, increasingly, are simply taking their money elsewhere. A Qatar-based company recently scrapped plans for a $900 million project to build power plants here. “The prospects do not look good at all,” a leading Damascus economist said on condition of anonymity. “There is a deep sense that the crisis is ongoing and business is at a standstill.”

Worst of all, according to many in the Syrian business community, the government has backtracked on its liberalizing reforms in a last-ditch attempt to mollify the protesters, who complain of unemployment, corruption, low wages and high prices. On Tuesday, the Treasury announced it would further subsidize gas oil by 25%, the latest in a string of government measures, including generous salary increases for public-sector workers and reintroducing subsidies on food and fuel prices. “It is not feasible for the government to adopt a socialist economy again. They simply don’t have the money,” the Damascus economist said. “All economic moves have been short term emergency measures, there has been no strategy.”

Panicked by the protests, President Assad sacked his government in April in a move that one dissident in Damascus described as “a pretense to democracy.” The dismissals included Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs Abdullah al Dardari, the architect of the economic liberalization. Although Dardari’s longer-term policies were not always popular among the poor, the English-speaking minister opened the economy to foreign trade and private banks brought credit into the country.

A European business analyst working in Syria says that while the unrest has hurt the economy, the government backtracking on economic policy could cripple Syria. “There is now an uncertainty over future policy. People want to know if they invest now they can be sure for 20 years,” he says. Assad’s emergency measures mean oil prices and inflation rates are now unpredictable. “When investors don’t have certainty, because you just sacked all the economic reformers, they won’t invest,” he adds. The analyst says that it is possible there could be rolling blackouts in Syria as the government is unable to attract foreign investment for new electricity plants.

Unlike in Egypt, where the educated middle class used their knowledge of the Internet and the media to help oust President Hosni Mubarak, in Syria it is the poverty-stricken masses that have led the protests while the growing business classes have sat tight. Soon, however, many of Syria’s business class — who are generally undecided on the anti-Assad demonstrations — will start to feel the pinch when they can’t afford to send their kids to schools or pay for hospital bills. The Damascus economist says that would be the beginning of the end for Assad. He says: “The business community does business with [Assad] cronies in government. They are willing to take some losses, but at one point they will demand reforms.

Regulatory watch: Syria
Economist Intelligence Unit – Business Middle East
1 June 2011

EU suspends aid. The Council of the EU on May 23rd announced that it has decided to suspend aid programmes for Syria in light of the ongoing repression of peaceful protests. This could potentially inflict serious damage on Syria’s economic prospects, as the EU has been one of the most important sources of finance for development projects for a number of years, even though the two sides have yet to sign an Association Agreement, the standard framework for economic co-operation between the EU and Mediterranean Basin states. The EU stated that it had decided to suspend all preparations in relation to new co-operation programmes and to suspend ongoing programmes under the Euroepan Neighbourhood Initiative and Mésures d’Accompagnement (Meda) instruments. EU members states would be reviewing their own bilateral aid programmes, and the EU Council asked the European Investment Bank (EIB) “to not approve new EIB financing operations in Syria for the time being”.

The statement said that the EU will consider the suspension of further assistance to Syria “in light of developments”. It also stated that signing of the Association Agreement is now not on the agenda. The agreement had been initialled in 2004, but plans to sign it the following year were scrapped owing to a worsening in relations over Syrian actions in Lebanon. As relations improved from mid-2008, the EU sought to revive the Association Agreement, whose principal feature is the lifting of trade barriers. However, the Syrian government objected to the insertion of fresh clauses about human rights, and a plan to sign the agreement in late 2009 was cancelled. There has been little progress since.

The lack of an Association Agreement has not been a bar to EU development assistance. The EU has provided more than €1.1bn in finance to Syria, with most of this being disbursed over the past decade. Energy has been a major beneficiary, with €615m of loans provided by the EIB for the construction of power stations and transmission and distribution systems. It is not clear what impact the EU’s latest action will have on Syria’s largest new power station project, involving the construction of a 724-mw combined cycle plant near Deir al-Zor by a consortium of Italy’s Ansaldo Energia and Metka of Greece. A signing ceremony was held in early February for loans provided by the Saudi Fund for Development and the Kuwait-based Arab Fund for Economic and Social Development, which together are financing about one-third of the estimated US$950m costs. The EIB has also been listed by the government as a major source of finance for the project, but the proposed loan from the bank could come into question as a result of the EU Council’s decision.

The EU is an important trading partner of Syria and a significant source of economic aid. In 2009 the EU accounted for 30% of Syria’s exports (mainly oil bought by Germany, Italy and France) and 23.5% of Syria’s imports. However, Iraq has recently emerged as the largest buyer of Syrian goods, accounting for 26% of total exports in 2009, and Turkey’s share of the Syrian import market has grown rapidly on the back of a free-trade agreement, reaching 7.6% in 2009. There is a risk that the unrest will hamper trade with these two countries.

G-8: Nations, Banks to Give $40B for Arab Spring, 2011-05-27

DEAUVILLE, France (AP) — Rich countries and international lenders are aiming to provide $40 billion in funding for Arab nations trying to establish true democracies, officials said at a Group of Eight summit Friday.

Officials didn’t fully detail the sources of the money, or how it would be used, but the thrust was clearly to underpin democracy in Egypt and Tunisia — where huge public uprisings ousted autocratic regimes this year — and put pressure on repressive rulers in Syria and Libya.

The overall message from President Barack Obama and the other G-8 leaders meeting in this Normandy resort appeared to be warning autocratic regimes in the Arab world that they will be shut out of rich-country aid and investment, while new democracies are encouraged to open their economies….

Tunisia’s government said it was asking the G-8 for $25 billion over the next five years, and Egypt says it will need between $10 to $12 billion for the fiscal year that begins in July to cover its mounting expenses…..

WSJ [Reg]: Shell Faces NGO Pressure To Withdraw From Syria
2011-05-27

LONDON (Dow Jones)–Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDSB.LN) is coming under pressure in the Netherlands to withdraw from Syria because of the Syrian government’s violent reprisals against pro-democracy demonstrators. Dutch non-governmental organization IKV …

The EU lays off hundreds of Syrians

أنهى الاتحاد الأوربي عقود مئات العاملين معه في مشاريعه في سورية وذلك بعد قرار تعليق جميع برامج التعاون مع سورية على خلفية استمرار “عمليات القمع” على حد ادعاءاتهم “ضد السكان المدنيين”.متناسين أن من يقتل هم المخربين وحملة السلاح المتأمر

وشكل مجموعة من الذين أنهى الاتحاد عقودهم صفحة على الفيس بوك يطالبون فيها بتعويضاتهم المالية وحقوقهم المنصوص عليها في عقود التوظيف، وأكدوا استمرارهم في المطالبة حتى الحصول على حقوقهم.

وتشير إحدى الموظفات في إحدى برامج الاتحاد انه وبدون سابق إنذار اخبرنا مدير البرنامج وهو أوربي الجنسية ان نغادر المكاتب وننهي العمل في يوم الخميس 26/5/2011، وتقول ان المدير ذاته كان يرفض مغادرة سورية لكنه غير رايه بشكل مفاجئ

why-discuss said:

Murat said:” …better one is to bankrupt the country through on-going economic paralysis. This will hit the elite classes where they will feel it – their pocketbook. Once their financial security is threatened, they will quickly get rid of Bashar”

I disagree with that ’stategy’ and in general on the described dangers of bankruptcy of the Syrian government.

This is the assumption Israel has for Gaza: We squeeze then economically and they will turn against their leaders.

The same assumption they had in 2006 : We harass them until they turn against Hezbollah.

Unfortunately this may work in western democracies, but in the middle east it can be the exact opposite!

None of the Arab leaders who fell were under any sanctions. In the contrary they were pampered by the Western countries, not for their democratic achievements, but because they has submitted to Number One Rule of the western countries: DO NOT THREATEN ISRAEL.

In Syria, this rule has been rejected by the Assad and the country has been burdened by sanctions for decades.

My view is that if more economical hardship is felt in Syria because of new sanctions, the Syrians will spontaneously regroup around their president and put the blame on the opposition and on the western countries.

So in the long run, these sanctions will have the exact opposite effect.

In addition, it will allow countries like Russia, China and Iran to find a open ground for more economical influence and sustained presence.

So the bankruptcy and isolation of Syria may reinforce Bashar Al Assad control of the country.

He still have at least one strong ally: Russia that is now courted by the western countries to save them from the Libya quagmire.

Contrary to the US, Russia does not dump its long term allies when they are in trouble.

Demonstrators in the mainly Kurdish city of Qamishli in Syria's northwest hold a banner saying "army and people are one" in a protest on Friday.

It’s the economy stupid.

Most analysts are coming to the conclusion that the Syrian economy must collapse before the military will turn on the government or split. There are growing signs that economic pressure is mounting on the regime.

About 20 top businessmen met with the President last week. They all beseeched President Bashar al-Assad to rescind the requirement that private banks boost their capital requirement to 300 million dollars from 30 million by the end of the year. When the president heard the demand of the businessmen, most of whom are shareholders in the banks, he seemed to agree and promised that something would be done to push back the onerous new requirement.

Unfortunately for the bankers, this directive has found no echo at the Central Bank, which must happen for it to become official. As of this writing, the Central Bank has not complied with any of the decisions which were allegedly made at the palace. Indeed, reports suggest that the Central Bank director was nonplussed by the president’s desire to please Syria’s business leaders, when they are being asked to meet the runaway costs of government.

When banks were first permitted to open their doors in Syria, they were required to put up only 30 million dollars in capital requirements. Twelve banks started operating, due to these modest costs. It was not long, however, before the government instructed the banks that a significant capital increase would be required. The Central Bank wanted capital holdings boosted to 300 million.  The banks agreed to fulfill this by 2015. Not long ago, a directive was issued from the Central Bank requiring the augmented capital be met by November 2011. This was a significant challenge for the banks. The bankers have told Syria’s financial leaders that they will raise the new capital requirements with their boards, but have no assurance that permission will be granted to increase capital within Syria due the the new political uncertainties.

Large banks in Syria earn about 20 million dollars in profits a year. Recently the government raised interest rates by 3%. This means that if they do not raise their lending rates, their current yearly profits will be wiped out. They are faced with the dilemma of having to increase their capital requirements by 10 times while their profits have been wiped out. The banking system faces a double whammy of having to increase capital requirements while interest margins are being squeezed dramatically.

Considerable confusion reigns at the top of Syria’s financial community. The government needs money urgently to pay for the military costs of the continuing uprising and most importantly to pay for the salary hikes instituted at the beginning of the uprising. The most glaring development over the last week has been the restoration of the fuel subsidies which can only be funded through significant borrowing. Numbers close to 1.5 billion dollars have been cited as the cost this year.

How long the government can hold out before the country’s finances begin to give out is anyone’s guess. If the stalemate between the protestors and the government continues as it is today, senior businessmen suggest that bankruptcies will begin to cascade in about six months. This figure may be over-dramatized in order to win relief from the government demands, but business leaders are worried and feeling the pressure.

READER OPINIONS

Murat writes:

Peeling away the Sunni military, while possible, is an improbably road to success. A better one is to bankrupt the country through on-going economic paralysis. This will hit the elite classes where they will feel it – their pocketbook. Once their financial security is threatened, they will quickly get rid of Bashar. This course will be protracted and therefore very bloody, but, if implemented relentlessly, will succeed. As in all matters, follow the money…

From a Christian Businessman:

Dear professor Landis, Through the years I really enjoyed your analysis and the comments you had on Syria. I am a Christian Syrian who lived abroad for the last 20 years. Three years ago I moved to Damascus, Syria with some extended investments and money borrowing, started my own company and I can say today very proudly I might have a reliable business with 27 people working for the compnay.

Till last month, I really appreciated what Syria had to offer in terms of stability and possible business opportunities. Unfortunately, with the latest problems in Syria, I was disappointed to read your continuous lopsided analysis. Yes I agree the early demonstrations were genuine, innocent and spontaneous – however it rapidly deteriorated to become very violent and devastating. Some of the people who work for me come from Doma and Suwaida; who are my reliable source of information – they were telling about so many violent incidents and how militant the demonstrators were.

The lastest mantra the demonstrators are shouting got nothing to do with democracy, freedom or reforms. It is about regime change and bringing chaos. Yes I agree, there is serious corruption in the country that the president needs to tackle – however he was and still not given a fair chance to execute. I am extremely worried about the fate of the Syrian minorities, if the country goes into turmoil. I cannot help but become think about this since most of the rhetoric is about martyrdom and going to heaven after Friday prayers. The anxiety that I have, and which is shared by so many Syrians, is exacerbated further with some isolated attacks that occurred on churches during the Good Friday (before Easter). Now, before anybody jumps and accuses that these attacks were organized by some rogue government elements, I wanted to say living in Syria and being a Syrian – it is so easy to spot an undercover agent in Syria – they are not that clever in disguising themselves.

As for many small business owners like me, we are faced with tough choices in letting some of our employees go with seriously devastating outcome to our businesses, where bankruptcy is looming on the horizon for me due to accumulated unpaid debts. I really do not want the freedom that the US brought to Iraq nor to hear Obama’s pre-election campaign rehearsals.

Furthermore, US has no moral grounds to stand as Chomsky called it “state that defies international laws and conventions, does not consider itself bound by the major treaties and conventions, World Court decisions.”

One last request, please can you pause for a moment and consider the other angle of what is happening today in Syria?

Observer writes:

I do believe that the country has entered into a low level civil war. The regime continues to point to armed elements killing security personnel. The regime is talking about a concerted effort to make it subservient to Israeli dictates. The best way for the regime to lend credence to the above is to open the country to outside observers and journalists and to allow for the UN to come in and to conduct an investigation. Meantime, the Egyptians have moved entirely away from the previous subservience to Israel by promoting a unity among the Palestinians and opening the Rafah crossing. In Jordan there are calls to rescind the Wadi Araba accord with Israel. The Arab revolts are going to bring genuine re orientation from the people towards Israel an entity that has never been and will never be accepted by the majority of the people of the ME as an exclusive home to a particular group at the expense of other groups.

I also believe that the current borders will not be permanent. It is impossible on the long run to continue to have entities like Syria and Lebanon and Iraq based on a false and weak national identity. Like Italy, there will be regions that will demand a separation first in administrative and then in financial and economic areas and eventually in political arenas.

Belgium and Northern and Southern Italy are very good examples of what will happen.

This regime is finished. When it announces that an Islamic emirate has been proclaimed in Homs and that the emir raised the Israeli flag, it clearly is sending a message to its own constituents that want to believe its propaganda and nothing else. ….

There is no such thing as a Syrian National Identity.

The struggle against Israel has been in many respects effective. The strategy of subjugating the region to the will of Zionism has failed with the final death of the project occurring in Iraq and in Lebanon with the help of Syria. Yet the regime has maintained a fine balance between defiance to Israel and helping regional stability that includes Israel to maintain its grip on power. The state of emergency was justified repeatedly as a necessary tool to fight Israel and yet it was used mainly to have a family with the support of some in the country based on sect and interests to control the entire country.

The deal between the people and the regime is broken and it was based on a desire for stability and hope for a better future in return for allowing the current regime to stay. This deal has been repeatedly broken by the graft and corruption and mismanagement and hateful policies enshrined by the regime through the late President. After 10 years of stalling on reforms the current President is either a willing partner in the repression or a figure head. I do not know the answer to this dilemma.

The timid reforms with the introduction of banking and some free trade that happened after 2005 were forced on the regime after the Lebanon debacle and were designed to allow for the few to enrich themselves further and to advance their own agenda at the expense of the huge number of disenfranchised Syrians. The permission given to have satellite dishes was also forced on the regime as the world opened up to new realities and a globalized world. Likewise the introduction of the internet was an absolute necessity for the regime to remain in contact with the world. Yet all of those openings have permitted ever more increase in hope for a better future and the example of Tunisia showed that these regimes have accumulated power for one reason: power over the people. Bernard Lewis noted that many of the regimes in the ME after Sykes Picot were a threat to their own populations only. Syria has been a punching bag for Israel for some time now. It is only after HA showed how to deal!

with Israel that the Syrian armed forces changed tactics and organization. Israel also has lost a great deal and will continue to do so as the myth of invincibility is shattered and the myth of carrying the battle to the opponent’s land is also shattered.

when I offer partition of the country I do so as a challenge to the status quo. If the people cannot live together under a unified national identity then either partition or autonomy is the answer. Forcing them to stay together when there is now so much hatred and violence will not work. I fear for the Alawite sect for they have been taken hostage by the Assad and Makhloof families who bound their fate to that of this community. After all, 10% of the population cannot hope to control the rest of the country without consent from the people. It is only a matter of time before this aberration is destroyed. It will happen either as internal rotting of the system or another much more violent explosion or both.

As I said reform IN the system is no longer possible as the people have moved to reform OF the system including its departure or a profound change of its nature.

In any case, Egypt is reaffirming itself at the center of Arab politics with Sudan and Palestine and shortly with Libya and Tunisia. This if it continues spells the doom of Iranian influence as an Arab identity appeals to Arabs before a Persian one and if the MB and Islamists have a place in the next elections, even the Islam card will not be exclusive to Iran.

Syria is bound to have the Egyptian influence affect its outcome.

On a global scale this is just a harbinger of things to come as we face a food and energy shortage. Wheat production peaked and is in decline, consumption of oil is outpacing new discoveries and many oil rich countries have to use a significant amount for their domestic use.

On Syria, an initial statement of support by King Abdullah for President Bashar al-Assad has been followed by silence, along with occasional calls at Friday Prayer for God to support the protesters. That silence reflects a deep ambivalence, analysts said. The ruling Saudi family personally dislikes Mr. Assad — resenting his close ties with Iran and seeing Syria’s hand in the assassination of a former Lebanese prime minister, Rafik Hariri, a Saudi ally. But they fear his overthrow will unleash sectarian violence without guaranteeing that Iranian influence will be diminished……

There are also suspicions that the kingdom is secretly providing money to extremist groups to hold back changes. Saudi officials deny that, although they concede private money may flow…..

“We are back to the 1950s and early 1960s, when the Saudis led the opposition to the revolutions at that time, the revolutions of Arabism,” said Mohammad F. al-Qahtani, a political activist in Riyadh.

NEWS ROUND UP follows

This Friday saw a number of demonstrations and at least 8 killed. Most talk is of the Turkey opposition meeting. One organizer, Ausama Monajed, puts the best face on the opposition’s lack of leaders. He argues that leaderslessness is a good thing because it reverses the Middle Eastern penchant to place the man above the party and to focus on the leader and not the platform. He writes, “This is the dawn of a new age in Syrian politics, it’s not only the regime that’s being rejected, but traditional politics based on personalities and ideologies rather than issues and platforms.” One can only pray that we are witnessing a new dawn and not more Arab divisiveness and backbiting.

Eight reported killed on ‘Homeland Protector Friday’, LATimes, May 27, 2011

Picture 4 Syrian security forces opened fire on anti- government protesters in several cities and arrested demonstrators on “Homeland Protector Friday,” a day on which activists had called on the Syrian army to stand with the people, according to activist accounts…..

The human rights lawyer said security forces had used live ammunition at demonstrations on Friday in the Sunni stronghold city of Homs in central Syria, in the area of Marqeb in the coastal city of Baniyas, and in Zabadani.

An eyewitness in Homs told The Times there was a heavy security presence there and that security forces in civilian clothes had fired at demonstrators. More than 2,000 people were protesting, he said.

On the Antalya meeting, Ausama Mounajed writes:

This will be a major test for the Syrian opposition groups and their ability to remain relevant to the current goings-on in the country. Success will be premised on their ability to court the support of protest leaders and committees acting inside the country. This is the dawn of a new age in Syrian politics, it’s not only the regime that’s being rejected, but traditional politics based on personalities and ideologies rather than issues and platforms. The Regime that the protesters want to topple is not only made of the Assads, the army and security generals and the Baath Party, there is an entire style, mentality and approach that is being rejected here. Opposition groups and figures have a chance now to reinvent themselves, while the Assads and their establishment do not. The activists understand that, but let’s see if the traditional opposition figures have managed to do so as well.

As such, the conference comes as referendum on the opposition’s ability to rejuvenate itself and rise to the challenges at hand, it’s not an indicator of where the revolution is going. The revolution has only one way to go: forward until the Regime is toppled. Its ability to do so might be hampered somewhat by the inability of the opposition to play a positive role, but the overall progress made and the course itself will not be reversed.

2011-05-27 ITAR-TASS (EN): URGENT – Syrian president must hold reforms – Medvedev.

27/5 Tass 532 DEAUVILLE, May 27 (Itar-Tass) —— Russia does not favor sanctions against Syria but Syrian President Bashar al-Assad must ensure democratic transformations, President Dmitry Medvedev said on Friday. “I had a telephone …

A draft statement by G8 leaders on Friday said “we will consider action in the United Nations Security Council” if Syria does not stop using force against protesters.

WSJ [Reg]: Shell Faces NGO Pressure To Withdraw From Syria, 2011-05-27

LONDON (Dow Jones)–Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDSB.LN) is coming under pressure in the Netherlands to withdraw from Syria because of the Syrian government’s violent reprisals against pro-democracy demonstrators. Dutch non-governmental organization IKV …

SYRIANS PROTESTING AT NIGHT TO EVADE SECURITY FORCES. The New York Times (5/27, Bakr)  reports,

“In a shift in strategy,” Syrian protesters have “moved their daily demonstrations…to the evening, in the expectation that security forces will be more reluctant to shoot at them and have a more difficult time identifying them for arrest, activists and organizers said.” Activists say that demonstrations “occur every evening in cities and towns across the country,” but they are attracting “far fewer participants than those held after Friday Prayer.” The new tactics, says the Times, “underline the evolution of the nine-week uprising, which has shown growing signs of resilience as it has weathered a ferocious crackdown.”

Action Urged To Thwart Iran’s Support For Assad Regime. Michael Singh of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy writes in the Wall Street Journal (5/27)

that Iran is backing Syria in its crackdown against protestors because it is a key ally in the region. If the Assad regime were to fall, he argues Iran would have to find other ways to support Hezbollah and it could inspire Iranian dissidents to resume their own protests. Therefore, Singh urges the international community to take tough actions against Tehran to thwart its influence in the region.

Bush Not Surprised By Middle East Uprisings, Says It Takes a While for Freedom to ‘take Root’
2011-05-26 23:47:25.186 GMT

DALLAS – Former President George W. Bush said Thursday that he wasn’t surprised by the recent uprisings in the Middle East, but warned that patience will be needed as it takes time for freedom to “take root.”

“I think we live in exciting times and I’m not surprised that freedom continues to march forward,” Bush said. “And the reason I’m not surprised, is because I believe and many in this room believe, deep in the soul of every man, woman and child on the face of the earth is the desire to be free.”

Bush made brief remarks while introducing former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice at a one-day conference hosted by the George W. Bush Institute.

“It is clear that it takes time for freedom to take root,” Bush said. “So while these are exiting times, these times also require a degree of patience.”…

Rice told the audience of about 300 — including professors, activists and officials from pro-democracy organizations — that fledging reforms in the Mideast need to be nurtured, adding, “This is no time for the United States of America to lose its nerve.”

“The message should be freedom is always worth it. It’s hard. You’ve begun your journey. We will be with you,” Rice said.

…..She said that fledgling democracies in the Mideast — Iraq, Lebanon and the West Bank of Palestine — need to be strengthened, as do healthy political forces in places like Egypt and Tunisia. Monarchies like Jordan and Morocco, should be pushed toward constitutional power, she said.

She said that “even in troubled Bahrain and conservative Saudi Arabia, there are seeds of reform.”

Some governments, she said, like Syria and Iran, won’t make the transition to democracy on their own. “The world will be better off without Bashar Assad and the mullahs in Iran,” she said to applause.

Bitter Lemons: Edition 15 Volume 9 – May 26, 2011

Turkey and the Arab revolutionary wave
• Young Turks and the Syrian spring – Rime Allaf
The high-level diplomatic hand that Turkey extended to Syria had no effect.

• Syria and the zero conflict policy – Murhaf Jouejati
Turkey stands to lose a lot should Syria falter.

…The popular unrest in Syria and the Assad regime’s bloody clampdown on pro-democracy protestors could lead to the unraveling of Turkey’s “zero conflict” policy with its neighbors, as Syria is the linchpin of that policy.

After decades of animosity, Turkish-Syrian ties thawed in 1998, when Turkish threats of military action forced Syria to expel PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan from his safe haven in Damascus. Since then, Turkey has transformed the relationship from one of military confrontation to its closest economic partnership today. Bilateral trade has more than tripled, reaching $2.5 billion in 2010, and the two countries have introduced a visa-free travel regime for their citizens. In February, they began the construction of a joint dam at their frontier and announced projects to set up a joint bank, inaugurate a cross-border express rail route and link their natural gas networks. In northern Syria, Aleppo–Syria’s second largest city–has been connected to Turkey’s southeastern Gaziantep province through new border, rail, and road connections, leading to an economic boom, with Turkish tourists and trade pouring in.

Turkey stands to lose a lot should Syria falter. Syria represents a strategic land route to the rest of the Middle East and its markets. Should anything obstruct that route, Turkey’s trade with Jordan and with Lebanon and access to oil in the Gulf would be compromised. Turkey also fears the potential influx of Syrian refugees, to say nothing of the challenge that Syria’s PKK-friendly Kurds may pose. Over and above that, the greatest challenge Turkey faces is the damage to its international reputation and growing influence in the region…..

What this says about Turkey’s “zero conflict” policy is that, although lofty in its goals, it has limited utility with authoritarian regimes when under fire. In light of this, the Turkish leadership is said to be optimistic about a new, open, democratic Syria, however messy that transition might be….

*SARKOZY SAYS G8 WILL DISCUSS ISSUE OF SYRIAN SANCTIONS

Burhan Ghalioun - Leading Opposition Intellectual

The opposition meeting scheduled to take place in Turkey in four days (May 30) has brought out divisions among leaders of the Syrian uprising. A meeting of some 400 opposition members in Washington on Tuesday also brought some unity. The opposition is divided over the proper role foreign governments should play in bringing down the Syrian regime. Some believe that only foreign action – primarily sanctions as presently articulated – will destroy the Syrian government. One advocates an Israeli role in the destruction of the regime.

A growing divide between those inside the country and outside is developing as well. This is suggested by Burhan Ghalioun’s refusal to go to the Turkey meeting of the opposition. [See translation of his reasons below]

Some 400 Syrian American opposition members gathered in Washington DC on Tuesday 24 May for a first-of-its-kind day of lobbying, rallies, and planning sessions to support freedom and dignity for the people of Syria who are struggling against their government for self-determination. [see more about this meeting at Mideast Report by Tic Root]

Authors at the Washington Institute of Near East Policy propose ways they believe that Sunni soldiers can been persuaded to defect from the Syrian Army. They recognize that so long as the military remains loyal to the president and government, the opposition cannot succeed. Because they do not envisage Alawite officers turning on the regime, they list ways to convince “Sunni members of the Syrian military [to] oust the ruling family.” They advocate that “Washington should begin an active dialogue with the members of the National Initiative for Change.” The principle authors of this program are Radwan Ziadeh, Ausama Monajed, Ammar Abdalhamid, Najib Ghadbian. See more here.

Radwan Ziadeh, 35, US-based head of the Damascus Centre for Human Rights. Ziadeh is a human rights lobbyist, author of 13 books and visiting scholar at George Washington University in the US, where he fled to in 2007 after being threatened with arrest. He has been monitoring deaths and human rights abuses during the protests, including in his home town of Daraya close to Damascus. He has tried, with limited success, to bring the opposition and activists together through a new alliance, the National Initiative for Change.

Anas Al Abdeh, Chairman of the Movement for Justice & Development in Syria and Chairman of the Secretariat of the Damascus Declaration in Diaspora, said that “Europe, and France in particular, has a responsibility to apply direct and strong pressure on the Syrian regime.”

Ausama Monajed laments that Western government are not exploiting the opportunity at hand to divide Syria from Iran and Hizbullah when “protesters have increasingly adopted an anti-Iranian and anti-Hizbollah line.”

Burhan Ghalioun, a leading Syrian opposition intellectual, refuses to go to Turkey Opposition meeting, claiming it will be used by foreign interests. He wrote this on Wednesday, May 25, 2011

إلى أخواني الذين يسألوني عن أسباب عدم حضوري مؤتمر انطاليا أو يتساءلون عنها، أقول إنني أتفهم تعطش شباب الثورة إلى عنوان سياسي يشكل مرجعا لهم وذراعا سياسيا يصد عنهم ضربات سلطة العسف والعنف العاري وحامل لرسالتهم أمام الرأي العام العريي والعالمي. وجوابي أنه لو كان لدي ثقة ولو قليلة على أن هذا المؤتمر يخدم بالفعل هذه الأهداف أو بعضها لما ترددت لحظة في انضمامي إليه. لكنه ليس كذلك. هو بجمع بين الكثير ممن يريد أن يستفيد من الثورة ويستغلها لخدمة أجندات خاصة، ومنها أجنبية لسوء الحظ، وقليل جدا ممن يفكر بالفعل في خدمتها والتضحية من أجلها. هذا هو تقديري على الأقل. وكان إعلانه مفاجأة لي لأنمنظميه كانوا على اتصال بي وكنت قد وعدتهم بأننا نعمل مع الداخل لبلورة مبادرة جامعة. مع الاعتراف بأن بطء الداخل قد أساء لنا أيضا وفتح الباب أمام مثل هذه المبادرات الضعيفة والمليئة بالمفاجآت غير السارة

To my brothers who ask me about the reasons for not attending the Conference in Antalya, I say that I understand the thirst of youth to address a political revolution ……. My answer is that if I had confidence that this conference would serve these goals, I would not hesitate in joining them. But it does not. It is a collection of many of those who want to benefit from and exploit the revolution to serve private agendas, including, unfortunately, foreign agendas. Unfortunately, very few of those participating are really interested in serving the revolution or sacrificing for it. That is estimation of the meeting at least. The announcement of the meeting was a surprise to me because those who announced it were in contact with me. I had promised them that we were working to develop an initiative with those within Syria though a common initiative. We recognize that the slow pace of progress created difficulties and open the door to such initiatives such as these that are weak and full of unpleasant surprises.

Burhan Ghalioun, 65, professor of political sociology at the Sorbonne, Paris -  One of Syria’s respected intellectuals in exile, the academic Ghalioun has become a very public face of the uprising through numerous television and radio interviews. The author of 20 works, including The Arab Malaise, he is known for his strong opinions expressed in a calm, logical manner. He insists the leadership must come from the young people on the ground, but they require the outside help of people such as himself to keep media attention.

Here is a question from a reporter that underscores the divisions among Syrian opposition leaders

Who is the core of the Syrian opposition? I noticed that there are some divergence inside them. For example, Anas Al Abdeh, president of the London-based Movement for Justice and Development said that “Europe, and France in particular, has a responsibility to apply a direct and strong pressure on the Syrian regime so that it will halt the killing of innocents” . At his side were two other opposition leaders, Sarkis Sarkis of the Arab Socialist Movement, and Abdulhamid Alatassi of the Syrian Democratic People’s Party.

At the same time, Farid Ghadry, leader of the opposition Reform Party of Syria said that “The Syrians are waiting to see who is on their side…This is an opportunity for Israel, the only democracy in the Middle East, to do something.”He also said that Israelis should remain in the Golan even though it must return to Syria. How do you assess these different proposals? It seems that the oppositions are seeking for more foreign supports than winning over the domestic merchant and middle class.

Sarkis Sarkis Arab Socialist Movement, member of the Damascus Declaration and member of the National Democratic Rally in Syria

Abdulhamid Alatassi Representative of the Syrian Democratic People’s Party in France and member of the Secretariat-General of the Damascus Declaration in Diaspora

Anas Alabdeh Chairman of the Movement for Justice & Development in Syria and Chairman of the Secretariat of the Damascus Declaration in Diaspora

Ausama Monajed writes in his : “Syrian Revolution News Round-up” Day 71: Tuesday, 24 May 2011

“Could the U.S. waste another historic opportunity in the Middle East! Over the last few weeks, protesters have increasingly adopted an anti-Iranian and anti-Hizbollah line, the question is why western leaders are ignoring the opportunity at hand?”

Ghassan al-Muflih on the Antalya meeting – He is another leader of the opposition

Profiles of five people who are emerging as possible leaders of the Syrian rebellion

Raikhlina Sasha	25.05.2011, 14:01
	Interview with Joshua Landis, Director of the Centre for Middle East Studies and Associate Professor of Middle Eastern Studies at the University of Oklahoma. Reports mention financial sanctions, and, as far as I understand, these would come in the form of asset freezes and travel bans on the government figures, am I correct? Читать далее Source: Voice of Russia.

Ammar Abdalhamid and Helena Cobban at the Middle East Institute.

Syria opposition battles rising frustration and internal divisions: Disorganisation and splits within activists’ ranks said to deter others from joining movement.
Nidaa Hassan in Damascus, guardian.co.uk, Monday 23 May 2011

Syria’s anti-government protesters are battling against internal divisions and growing frustration as the movement against President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, now in its third month, appears to have reached a stalemate…..

There is disagreement about whether or not to negotiate with the government, what tactics to adopt for the street protests, and even whether the demonstrations began too soon.

“Maybe we should have waited and got better organised before we took to the streets,” said one protester in his 20s in the central city of Homs. A middle-aged woman whose son is out protesting said she offered to send him to Egypt to learn from activists but “he and his friends were so enthused by the revolutions in Egypt and Tunisia they couldn’t wait”.

But others said they had to take the opportunity presented by the initial victories of the Arab spring.

Many in urban centres are disconnected from a mainly rural uprising, and tribal groups have their own specific codes, requiring revenge for bloodshed, said a diplomat in Damascus.

When on 13 May the government said it would open a national dialogue – a pledge that looks increasingly insincere – opposition figures took different stances.

Older veteran figures such as Louay Hussein, an Alawite writer who met presidential emissaries, advocated negotiations.

But others, such as Razan Zeitouneh, a 35-year-old lawyer and activist, rejected any form of contact.

“I am adamantly opposed to dialogue before all violence is stopped and all political prisoners are released,” she said.

This disorganisation has alienated some of those who would have joined the protest movement. Two months of action have polarised Syrians.

…Those advocating change encompass all ages, levels of education and religions but predominantly young men are taking to the streets. “I fear people see young men in tracksuits or look at people coming out in rural areas and don’t see it as a movement that they relate to,” said the middle-aged woman….

In Syria, the revolution is uncertain.
Video by Grant Slater

KPCC Video and Photo, Southern California Public Radio – Interviews with Syrians on both sides of the revolutionary divide in California. This film should be seen in tandem with reading this article about the same people.

American sanctions against Syria 25.05.2011

LA Times:

“You can’t ignore the timing,” said Albright. “Syria is politically weaker than it was six months ago, and it might be easier to muster the votes at the [IAEA] board to refer this to the Security Council.”

Albright is a weapon inspector who now heads the Institute for Science and International Security, a Washington arms control watchdog. “This is laying down the gauntlet against Syria.”

James Fallows: Under Pressure, Syria Ends Economic Liberalization, Worsening Outlook

2011-05-25

One of President Assad’s rare progressive initiatives, an effort to open Syria’s economy has come to a halt under domestic protests and international sanctions, threatening to add to the country’s political woes DAMASCUS, Syria — Syrian President …

Chatham House: Envisioning Syria’s Political Future – Obstacles and Options

2011-05-25

Envisioning Syria’s Political Future – Obstacles and Options Tuesday 14 June 2011 18:00 to 19:00 Location Chatham House, London Participants Ammar Abdulhamid, Syrian Human Rights activist, author, dissident and founder of The Tharwa Foundation …

CFR: The New Yorker: The Syrian Problem

2011-05-25

The New Yorker’s Steve Coll looks at the past decade of oppressive rule by the Assad regime and argues that the time for Washington to negotiate has passed. The Damascus Spring of 2001 was so called because Syrian democrats hoped that President …

Witness: Shattered humanity inside Syria’s security apparatus
By Suleiman al-Khalidi – Thu May 26, Reuters

AMMAN (Reuters) – The young man was dangling upside down, white, foaming saliva dripping from his mouth. His groans sounded more bestial than human…..

Hizbullah leader, Hasan Nasrallah talking about Syria: خطاب السيد حسن نصر الله الجزء الثالث سوريا

DC Circuit upholds default damages judgment against Syria
2011-05-21

[JURIST] The US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit [official website] on Friday unanimously ruled [opinion, PDF] to uphold a $413 million judgment against Syria for assisting in the the murders of two US contractors. In 2004, two …

Obama’s Push-Pull Strategy: How Washington Should Plan for a Post-Assad Syria
By Andrew J. Tabler of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and Mara Karlin ForeignAffairs.com, May 25, 2011

Washington can take several concrete steps to help bring the Syrian crisis and the Asad regime to a peaceful end.

Assad is now caught in a dilemma: He can continue relying on his fellow Alawite security chiefs and the minority system they dominate to persecute the predominately Sunni protesters, or he can enact deep political reforms that could convince the protesters to return home but would end the Alawite-led system on which he so heavily relies. Either way, the Assad regime as it has existed for more than four decades is disintegrating.

Now, to follow through on his bold declaration last week, Obama and his advisers must plan for a Syria without the Assad regime as it currently exists. To do so, Washington should try to push Assad from power while pulling in a new leadership.

…..Obama must go even further than he did in his speech last week and publicly state that Assad must go. ……

Sanctions are another way to weaken Assad’s already loosening grip on power. ….

The United States could also exploit the vulnerability of Syria’s oil sector, …. Washington should press EU member states to …ban …. the Commercial Bank of Syria,…..The bank is known to keep a portion of its approximately $20 billion in hard currency reserves in short-term accounts at European banks. ……

Furthermore, the United States could invoke some combination of the remaining tenets of the Syria Accountability and Lebanese Sovereignty Restoration Act. (The act was first enacted by Congress in 2003 to sanction Syria for its pernicious meddling in Iraq and Lebanon, support for terror groups, and pursuit of weapons of mass destruction.) Those tenets include a ban on U.S. investment in Syria, a ban on the travel of Syrian diplomats beyond a 25-mile radius of Washington and New York, and a downgrading of diplomatic relations.

…a united front would show Arab allies, most notably Saudi Arabia and Egypt (both of which have no love for Assad), that Washington is serious about its “push” strategy and could entice them to actively join the anti-Assad bandwagon. Also, a concerted, multilateral effort against the Assad regime would help strip away Russian and Chinese objections to a UN Security Council resolution …

…. Syrian military officers (some of whom are Sunni) as well as the army’s enlisted rank and file (which is largely Sunni) could be convinced to question seriously Assad’s ability to survive. This would help raise the possibility of Sunni members of the Syrian military stepping in to save the country by ousting the ruling family.

As the United States works to push Assad from power, it should also be looking to pull in new political forces to replace him. Above all else, Syrians themselves must be at the forefront of any regime change in Damascus. Washington should, therefore, begin an active dialogue with the members of the National Initiative for Change,…

Washington should focus on bringing about a government led by the country’s Sunni majority, which would naturally create considerable tension with or a break in Syria’s alliance with Shiite-dominated Iran…

Michael Young

The Obama administration could fashion an Arab consensus by portraying a change in Syria as fatal for Iranian interests in the Levant. Despite Saudi-American tensions in recent months, there would be much sympathy with this approach in Riyadh, helping to unlock Gulf skepticism. What bothers the Saudis is that they see an Obama administration without any discernible strategy to contain Iranian power. An American initiative to use the Syrian crisis as a means of countering the influence of Iran and Hezbollah could reverse this sentiment. It would likely also earn considerable support from Egypt, which views Iran as a major spoiler on the Palestinian front.

Unrest chills investment in Syria, economy falters
Thu May 26, 2011, By Khaled Yacoub Oweis

* Qatar real estate firm halts large project in Damascus
* UAE engineering company pulls out of protest hotspot Homs* Economy seen shrinking 3 pct after 4 pct growth in 2010
* Capital flight detected since street turmoil began

AMMAN, May 26 (Reuters) – Political unrest has stymied three major Gulf investment projects in Syria and harmed efforts to attract capital needed to boost the economy after decades of Soviet-style controls, business figures say.

Syrian Decree on Adding Additional Marks to Exam Results of University Students, 2011-05-26

Decree on Adding Additional Marks to Exam Results of University Students May 26, 2011 http://www.sana.sy/eng/21/2011/05/26/349006.htm DAMASCUS, (SANA)- President Bashar al-Assad on Thursday issued Decree No. 203 for 2011 which provides for …