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AGU: Geophysical Research Letters

 

Keywords

  • mesoscale modeling
  • humidity variation

Index Terms

  • Atmospheric Processes: Precipitation
  • Atmospheric Processes: Regional modeling
  • Atmospheric Processes: Mesoscale meteorology

Abstract

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 35, L09812, 5 PP., 2008
doi:10.1029/2008GL033657

Sensitivity of quantitative precipitation forecast to height dependent changes in humidity

Christian Keil

Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Wessling, Germany

Andreas Röpnack

Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Wessling, Germany

George C. Craig

Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Wessling, Germany

Ulrich Schumann

Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Wessling, Germany

The impact of humidity variations on QPF is studied performing a series of sensitivity experiments with the COSMO model at a horizontal mesh size of 7 km. Generally, variations of humidity in the boundary layer have the largest impact on precipitation, and the sensitivity decreases with height. An increase of humidity by 10% in the boundary layer is equivalent to an increase of 20% in the mid-troposphere. While the impact of humidity variation on stratiform precipitation persists throughout the 36-h forecast period, the impact diminishes after 24 h in the convective rainfall area. Increasing the boundary layer humidity by 30% leads to a 6 h earlier initiation of convection and a five times larger precipitation amount in the convective area, whereas it is doubled in the stratiform region. These results indicate that accurate measurements of humidity in the boundary layer are most important for QPF.

Received 15 February 2008; accepted 11 April 2008; published 14 May 2008.

Citation: Keil, C., A. Röpnack, G. C. Craig, and U. Schumann (2008), Sensitivity of quantitative precipitation forecast to height dependent changes in humidity, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L09812, doi:10.1029/2008GL033657.

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