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James Fallows

James Fallows

James Fallows is a national correspondent for The Atlantic and has written for the magazine since the late 1970s. He has reported extensively from outside the United States, and once worked as President Carter's chief speechwriter.
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James Fallows is based in Washington as a national correspondent for The Atlantic. He has worked for the magazine for nearly 30 years and in that time has also lived in Seattle, Berkeley, Austin, Tokyo, Kuala Lumpur, Shanghai, and Beijing. He was raised in Redlands, California, received his undergraduate degree in American history and literature from Harvard, and received a graduate degree in economics from Oxford as a Rhodes scholar. In addition to working for the Atlantic, he has spent two years as chief White House speechwriter for Jimmy Carter, two years as the editor of US News & World Report, and six months as a program designer at Microsoft. He is an instrument-rated private pilot. He is also now the Chair in US Media at the US Studies Centre at the University of Sydney, in Australia.

Fallows has been a finalist for the National Magazine Award five times and has won once; he has also won the American Book Award for nonfiction and has won a N.Y. Emmy award for the documentary series Doing Business in China. He was the founding chairman of the New America Foundation. His two most recent books, Blind Into Baghdad (2006) and Postcards from Tomorrow Square (2009) are based his writings for The Atlantic; he is at work on another book about China He is married to Deborah Fallows, author of the recent book Dreaming in Chinese. They have two married sons.

Fallows welcomes and frequently quotes from reader mail sent via the "Email" button below. Unless you specify otherwise, we consider any incoming mail available for possible quotation -- but not with the sender's real name unless you explicitly state that it may be used. If you are wondering why Fallows does not use a "Comments" field below his posts, please see previous explanations here and here.

What's Wrong with America, Chapter 817: Sen. Richard Shelby

I don't like to personalize politics. But there's no avoiding it in this case. I'm on the other side of the Pacific for a while again, talking with various foreigners who have theories about "America's irreversible decline," the relentless shift of power to China, and so on.

I don't agree, and I emphasize the tremendous resilience of the American system, the serious problems confronting China, and so on. But if I wanted to make a case that our system really has become pathologically trivializing and self-defeating -- and that our problems, theoretically correctable, may be beyond our powers to address -- here's the most recent face I would put to that problem: Sen. Richard Shelby of Alabama.

Shelby.jpg

Last year, Shelby -- on his own authority, and in pique for a federal contract that didn't go to  Alabama firms -- held up the confirmation of some 70 executive branch appointees. It's bad for America that Senate rules make such one-person tyranny possible. But it should be held against Shelby that he was willing to abuse the rules this way, in reckless disregard of the national interest and the destructive wastefulness of making it so arbitrarily difficult to fill public jobs.

Now, as Peter Diamond has recounted in the New York Times, Shelby has, on his own whim, decided that the most recent recipient of the Nobel award in economics (Diamond), doesn't meet the Shelby Test for economic excellence. I'm more skeptical than most people about the  "Nobel prize" in economics. Technically, it's not one of the "real" Nobel prizes, and in some cases it has inflated the delusions of economists that theirs is a hard science comparable to physics or biology/medicine. But let's be serious. A career politician with a law degree from the University of Alabama (Shelby has 8 years as a prosecutor, 40 years as a legislator). Versus the economist who has just been recognized with the highest international lifetime-achievement honor that exists in his field -- and whose specialty is studying America's worst economic problem of the moment, chronic unemployment.  Hmmm, I wonder which of them might be in a better position to judge the other's street-cred about Fed policy. Yet Senate rules let one willful politician say: No, I think not. Presumably the Nobel committee will soon offer Shelby a standing veto over its selections.

Here's the real question: America is rich and resilient. But is it resilient enough to permit folly and self-destruction of this sort? There is no recourse against Sen. Shelby for his abuse of power except to make sure everyone knows and remembers what he has done. Which is the point of this note.

(Previously in the "what's wrong" saga here.)

May 35th

I have nothing special to add about the events in China 22 years ago, except simply to observe that they happened. It is worth continuing to note this anniversary in the rest of the world, since the authorities have all but effaced its memory within China. (Photo from May 1989; source here, via Kathleen McLaughlin.)

June4.png

In my experience in talking with college students in China, it's not a question of having to be "careful" when referring to the events in Tiananmen Square on June 4, 1989, or using code like "May 35th." Even if you refer specifically to that time and place, most young Chinese that I've met have no idea what you are talking about. This is just an arbitrary date to them -- not one with resonance, like September 11, 2001, or November 22, 1963.

As Robert Sullivan has pointed out, the main Chinese news organs have room today to talk about the ongoing drought, and the epidemic of cheating on college-entrance exams, and the international good-will tour of Xi Jinping, the next-president anointee. But not for wallowing in an awkward part of the country's past. (English version of People's Daily front page today.)

Peopledaily2.png

Let's look on the bright side. Conceivably "June 4" will become a noted date in China once more, as the day when a Chinese player won a Grand Slam tennis championship for the very first time. Nothing against the plucky Francesca Schiavone, but Li Na of China -- who as I write is a few hours away from meeting Schiavone in the French Open women's finals -- is of course a talented athlete but also an immensely charming personality. For later discussion: how typical the unguarded, unpretentious sense of humor she displays (watch this interview starting at time 1:00) is of many people we met in China. Who deserve full recognition and remembrance of the ups and downs their country has been through.

Latest Google Gizmo: Flight Search

Please see UPDATE and UPDATE! below, about Bing.

You may have seen this already, but in case you haven't in the few days the feature has been available...

In a Google search box, enter "Flight" followed by the airport abbreviations for any two cities connected by nonstop flights. You could do "Flight JFK LAX" or "Flight DFW MIA," but let's try it with a search for flights between Chicago O'Hare and Dubuque. Here is what you would see after entering "Flight ORD DBQ":

GoogFlt1.png

Notice the little airplane symbol at the top of the search results. If you then click on the plus sign below it, next to "schedule of non-stop flights," here is what you would get:

GoogFlt2.png
If you did the same thing for a more heavily trafficked route, you'd get a long list of flights, times, frequencies, and airlines. Give it a try, for instance, with LGA ORD. In its stripped-down effectiveness in answering the question, "what's are my choices for getting to Dubuque," I can see the handiness of this relative to Kayak or some other services.

For another time, what features like this suggest about Google's attempt to expand its reach from (less profitable) pure search functions to (more profitable) e-commerce of various sorts. For now, a handy feature. Thanks to Parker Donham for the lead.
____
Update: several readers, including at least one who works at Microsoft, have written to ask, "But what about Bing?" Bing has indeed long had its own flight search feature, which differs from the new Google one in an instructive way.

If you typed "Flight ORD DBQ" into the Bing search box, and as with Google clicked on the first "Flights from Chicago to Dubuque" link at the top of the results, you'd see a screen like this. Click for bigger.
BingFlight.png

That is, you'd get a flight-selection and flight-shopping view more or less familiar to people who use Kayak, Expedia, and similar services. You see a list of connections arranged by price; you've got sliders to change your choices of flight times, number of stops, etc; you're directly into the shopping-for-flights mode.

Compare and contrast? Google's new feature is quicker and faster if you want to see an unornamented list of who goes where, when. In that way its function is like the old OAG / Official Airline Guide. Bing's puts you straight into comparison shopping for flights, in keeping with its "decision engine" approach.  I mentioned Google's new flight-search feature because the list-of-connections aspect was more novel to me than the comparison shopping that Bing offers. But each has its virtues, so mix and match as appropriate.
___
Bonus Update! A friend writes:
>>No doubt I'm going to be one of a crowd saying this, but you left out the major distinguishing strength of Bing's flight-search capabilities--in fact, it's the only reason I ever use Bing. In 2008, Microsoft acquired Farecast, a startup that developed algorithms to predict the chances that a flight's price is likely to increase, decrease, or stay stable over the next week. This invaluable and unmatched feature (which to me is quite mystical-seeming) is now integrated into Bing searches for round-trip flights, though for some reason it didn't kick in for the search in your screen shot. ("No Price Predictor. Learn why," it says.)

Do give it a spin, if you never have before. Make sure to click through so that you see not just the graphical arrow icon but the chance of each potential outcome expressed as a percentage.<<
Uncle! This is how we learn.

Please Read This Article About the Chinese Navy

David Axe, of Wired's Danger Room site, has a new article up with a deliberately overstated headline: "Relax: China's First Aircraft Carrier is a Piece of Junk." It's really worth reading and largely self-explanatory, but let me dare offer a reader's guide to how to take this kind of debunking piece. (Wired photo below of China's first carrier, a rehabbed model purchased 13 years ago from a shipyard in the Ukraine.)

carrier-varyag-now-shi-lang-plan13-2007-dalian-overhead1-660x330.jpg

For lo these many years, I have been arguing that the rest of the world should allow a lot of brain space for China. We should do so because events there are so interesting; because they've already made such a difference within China and elsewhere; because they hold such potential significance for the world's economic, environmental, cultural, and strategic future; and because the stakes are extremely high. If things go "relatively well" between China and other countries, starting with the US, we'll all be better off -- environmentally, militarily, culturally, etc -- than if they don't. And, it's worth saying again, things there are just so very interesting.

But paying attention to China, and taking it seriously, are different from being pie-eyed, gape-mouthed, and otherwise credulous about the overall nature of China's success. I'm not suggesting that people should be "hostile" to China, though there are aspects of its policy that need to be criticized every day. I'm talking about applying a common-sense BS-detector when you hear the next claim about how rapid, inevitable, trouble-free, and strategically-perfect the Chinese ascent will be. You could think of what I'm worried about as the "Beijing Olympic Opening Ceremony" syndrome, or the "I just rode the bullet train to Tianjin, and holy shit, we're doomed!" approach. Lots of things work in China. Lots of things don't. We understand that kind of balance immediately when it comes to America -- it's a huge success, with huge failures. China is a similar woolly package, with the difference that it's still full of hundreds of millions of poor people, and is in the middle of environmental catastrophes that dwarf the local challenges in Europe or North America. (The drought in much of China right now threatens to assume Dust Bowl proportions, as Edward Wong of the NYT, among others, is pointing out.)

So too with the military. China's military spending is rising very fast, as we always hear. But the starting point is much lower than accounts in the U.S. generally mention. That's the virtue of this Danger Room article. Yes, the PLA Navy is about to launch its very first aircraft carrier. It will hit the seas some 90 years after the U.S. launched its first aircraft carrier -- the USS Langley, which was commissioned in 1922. As anyone in any navy will tell you, simply having a ship is only the beginning to effective carrier operations.

So read the article, please. And don't read it as belittling China's progress but rather in giving a realistic perspective toward the golden mean of taking China seriously without being afraid of it.

I Know That PIMCO's Bill Gross Is Supposed To Be Smart And All...

Gross.png... and we even have a story about him (Atlantic photo, right) in the current issue (subscribe!).

But, merciful heavens, is there no limit to "smart" people's credulous ignorance, to say nothing of lax cliche-mindedness, about amphibian metaphors? From the "astute" newsletter he has just put out:
>>Put a frog in a kettle of boiling water and he'll jump out faster and further than any of those blue ribbon winners at the Calaveras County jumping frog contest. Put him in a pot at room temperature, however, slowly turn up the temperature to boiling, and you'll have frog legs for dinner. This latter, more unfortunate toad temporarily adapted to his external environment, which seemed like a practical thing to do, until - well, until he reached 212° at which point he was cooked.
 
Today's bond investors are experiencing a similar fate with nary a "ribbet" of complaint....<<
This "original" and "perceptive" way of thinking makes me extra respectful of the insights that it introduces. I'm really listening now, Mr. Gross!

Maybe henceforth I'll take my bond advice from the inimitable Tom Tomorrow. And, you're right: what really offends me here is the hackneyed nature of the expression. If this is the way people reason and assess evidence in a field I happen to know about, then...

TMW2011-05-25colorKOS.png
(I know there is other news going on, but so many people wrote in that, for the record, I needed to note the event.)

Campy Earnestness Defined: Wen Jiabao Hoops Video

I mentioned yesterday that, as part of China Daily's touching 30th-birthday festivities, it ran some pictures of Premier Wen Jiabao playing basketball with school kids.

Little did I know that a 90-second video of the whole event existed. This truly is incredible, from Wen's outfit to his showoff tricky dribble at time 0:25 to his working the offensive boards to ... well, please see for yourself. Thanks to Damien Ma for pointing this out.
 


The official English narration conveys the tone (but doesn't say anything about the conducive-to-layups rim height.)
>>Instructed by school teacher Zhang Tao, Wen learnt how to dribble and control the ball.

A successful shot won him a big round of applause from the pupils, the report said.
[I bet!]

Wen said he was "very happy" to join the students, and added that building a strong and healthy body would help them in their studies.

"Only when children are healthy, can the country have a good future. We must keep a healthy body in order to better serve the people," he said.<<
Well put! Nice play by all. And good sportsmanship by Wen Jiabao -- even though he gives every indication of taking this 100% seriously and not as a moment of high campiness potential. (For another time: has there ever been a moment of senior Chinese Communist officials reflecting awareness of the campy or jokey quotient in such events. Probably so, but I can't think of one now.)

On the Latest Google Chinese-Hacking News

Thanks to many people who have written in asking whether today's Google announcement of a new China-based wave of attacks on Gmail accounts is related to the takeover of my wife's Gmail account just after we spent two months in China this spring. As the official Google announcement says:
>>[W]e recently uncovered a campaign to collect user passwords, likely through phishing. This campaign, which appears to originate from Jinan, China, affected what seem to be the personal Gmail accounts of hundreds of users including, among others, senior U.S. government officials, Chinese political activists, officials in several Asian countries (predominantly South Korea), military personnel and journalists.

The goal of this effort seems to have been to monitor the contents of these users' emails, with the perpetrators apparently using stolen passwords to change peoples' forwarding and delegation settings. (Gmail enables you to forward your emails automatically, as well as grant others access to your account.)<<
The short answer is: I can't yet know for sure, but I *think* that what happened to my wife was a case of "regular," small-stakes criminal hacking, to trick people to send in money, rather than anything more exotic or political. But I will say more about the whole situation of online email security, including the political and international aspects, in an upcoming article. On the other hand, some traits of what happened to my wife's account are similar to what the latest Gmail announcement warns about. For instance, redirecting all incoming mainly to a similar-looking but different account controlled by the hacker. And, hey, it's China!

Here is what I can be sure of: in case you haven't done so before, and in case your eyeballs skidded past my previous two zillion entreaties on this topic, if you use Gmail please install Google's relatively new, free "two-factor" authentication service. It reduces practically to zero the chance that anyone could control your account remotely, which in turn vastly increases your protection against attacks like these. Here are Google's official instructions, plus an earlier nag by me, Google has been fairly careful to "blame the hacker," rather than blaming the victims, in these episodes. But the truth is you'll blame yourself if you don't apply the two-step process and some day later get hacked.

Three other quick tips, before a fuller treatment later on:

   - Diversity. It sounds so school-marmish, but it really matters not to use the same password everywhere. Reason: if one of your passwords gets hacked, as for instance one of mine was, along with those of 1.25 million other people, in last year's Gawker episode, you could have trouble for that one account. But if you use that same one for banking, email, your credit cards, etc -- then, sigh...   
    On the other hand, you go crazy if you have to remember dozens of passwords. For "life is complicated enough" reasons, I use the same few passwords for a bunch of nickel-and-dime accounts where I don't really care if they're hacked -- for instance, free registration at some news site. But how do you manage a large variety of passwords for more important sites? This leads us to:

 - Password manager programs. I still use and like LastPass, even after the hacking attack it withstood last month. Details later, but "withstood" is the important term. There are a variety of these programs, of which RoboForm is also very well known. See, for instance, this LifeHacker review for more. The point is, there are cheap and easy ways to automate the process of juggling a diverse range of passwords.

- "Strong" passwords. The debate kicked off at the Danish Baekdal site back in 2007, about an easy way to construct good passwords, is worth following. The most surprising part of his argument is that a multi-word pass phrase, like "be my guest," could be both easy for you to remember and hard for anyone else to crack. As the original entry put it,
...it is 10 times more secure to use "this is fun" as your password, than "J4fS<2".
Not everyone agreed, and you can follow some of the back and forth here. I end up using "this is fun"-style pass phrases for some sites, obscure letter-character combos for others, and LastPass as repository for most. Mainly the discussion will make you think about password-ology in general, which in itself is an important step.

The Hip Hop Guide to Foreigners and Their Ways

The meaning of Islam:




The meaning of Chinese philosophies:



The first video is from TheYoungCon / Geno.tv and NuevaBox and has a number of impressive touches. I especially like the rhythmic horn-section flourishes starting around time 0:40, the "I hate you, I hate you, I hate you 'cuz..." refrain, the mismatch of the guy and the lyrics, etc. Subtle, no. Funny, yes. Actually, subtle in some ways too. Eg time 0:35-0:36 and 0:46-0:52 plus others.

The second, which is more homemade in production values and more sincere in intent, is from a recent graduate of Colby College, who made the rap video as a project for his class on Eastern philosophies. The creator, David Havlicek, writes:
>>The lyrics stick very closely to the primary texts of Confucianism, Legalism, Daoism, and Buddhism.  The music is from a song by Afroman called "Palmdale" but I have inserted my own vocals.  Unfortunately, my vocal performance is far from professional, but it certainly adds to the humor of the piece.<<
Each video is valuable in its own way. Next up in this space: a ton of reports from Airbus and Boeing pilots, plus aircraft engineers, about AF 447.

Happy Birthday, China Daily!

Thirty years old today. And providing happiness, cheer, and a faithful thought-stream of the worldview of official China from beginning to end.

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I gather from my friends in the motherland that CD is commemorating the moment with a 100-page special print edition. 生日快乐 indeed! U.S readers will have to make do with the online version and of course the frequent paid print supplements to the Washington Post and New York Times. Plus, the Onion.

However we get our infusion of earnest-uplift consciousness, we are grateful to have it. China Daily, may you have thirty years more, and another thirty. Don't ever change.

(From the website as part of today's birthday-special stories: Premier Wen Jiabao with primary schoolers, under the headline "For Premier, love for basketball never grows old.")

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Today's Chinese Semiotics Lesson

Wherever you go, there you are. From the Beijing Metro:

Thumbnail image for BJSubway.jpg

Click on the photo to see a much bigger version. Discussion on Reddit of the Heisenbergian aspects here. You'll be relieved to know that my wife's Dreaming in Chinese has a chapter on the philosophy behind subway maps like this. And please consider a related classic of the translation genre.

To follow previous discussion on the mystery of street signs in Beijing, I've received a link to a helpful encyclopedic guide to the iconography -- hell, the semiotics! -- of all "thou shalt not" prohibition signs on Chinese streets. But right now the link, to a site in China, appears to be down. Will provide it later. Thanks to Mike Jarmy and Tim Smith.

Scheduling Notes, Plus 'Net Needs News'

I have material stored up on a whole range of topics, which I hope to get to ... when I can. In recent days I have, quaintly, been distracted by "writing"; and more traveling-and-writing lie ahead. I'll be off line for the next few days but then in theory I will get to:

 - More on "demographic realities" and the aftermath of last week's Obama-Netanyahu exchanges;
 - More and more, from engineers and airline pilots, on Air France 447; 
 - More on tax-and-deficit, and ability to argue about big public issues;
 - More on communication among non-native speakers;
 - Three notable take-down jobs, and what they signify. (Pre-reading hints: I'm talking about pieces by Eric Alterman, Michael Lind, and Gary Greenberg, with bonus background reading from Benjamin Walllace-Wells);
 - More on password construction and online security;
 - More on Obama's London and Middle East speeches and the linguistic intrigues thereof;
 - More on China's current woes, and strengths;
 - More on the semiotics of Chinese street signs;
 - More on positive-themed aviation news, good and bad;
 - Even more on TSA, including my third encounter with the Full Body Scanning machines (read: my third "enchanced pat down");
 - More on Achilles tendon miracles and the rediscovery of running;
 - Beer;
 - And other stuff. This is my intended to-do list, at a rate of maybe one or so per day starting in a few days.

FOR THE MOMENT,  two mentions timed to observances today (it's still Sunday in Calif, where I am for the moment) and tomorrow.

Today is "Net Needs News" Day, meant as a reminder that the net-based news ecology is great, as long as a "regular" reporting-based news-gathering structure survives to supply info. I've examined this problem last year and this year in the magazine. The campaign this weekend, explained on this Facebook page, is to get editorial cartoonists to illustrate the point. As, for instance, Steve Breen of the San Diego Union-Tribune has done:
Thumbnail image for net needs news.jpg

Tomorrow is of course Memorial Day. For holiday-themed reading I recommend Adm. Mike Mullen's graduation address at West Point last week, which reflected on the realities and responsibilities of a military that was more or less permanently at war, serving a country that was not "at war" in any real sense.  I can't find the text right now, and I've got to sign off and get on a plane. I leave that to your creativity and initiative. It's a way to honor those who deserve recognition for their service on this day. Update: Mullen's speech, which again is very much worth reading, is at the Joint Chiefs of Staff site. You'll find the part I'm talking about if you skip ahead to the paragraph that starts, "But today I'm going to give you another assignment. ..."

Gil Scott-Heron

The music I most associate with my first stage of living in Washington, in the Watergate era of the 1970s when I was working for the Washington Monthly, was the voice and poetry of Gil Scott-Heron, who was then in his early-/mid-20s. When I think of sitting and sweating in the non-airconditioned Washington Monthly office late on stifling DC nights, I think as well of Gil Scott-Heron's immediately recognizable voice in the background, on the radio. To me it was the theme music of that time. Of course this was a voice you stopped and listened to, rather than half-noticing as background effect.

He really was a beautiful singer, in addition to his poetry -- and his political influence, which has been most discussed on the occasion of his death. The only drawback of his being so well known for 'The Revolution Will Not Be Televised' is that his singing doesn't sound so great on that song. I preferred ones like this, which certainly is political in its own way:



Ta-Nehisi Coates posted an appreciation of GSH this morning. I am surprised at how moved I am to hear of his death. Sympathies to his family, and gratitude for his life and work.

Air France 447: What the Black Box Tells Us

Here's how to think about the release today of a report based on "black box" data from the Air France crash into the Atlantic Ocean two years ago. Or at least how to start thinking about it. I wrote a number of previous items about the crash soon after it occurred. (Plus, see updates below.)

Thumbnail image for WeatherAirFrance.jpg1) This tells us something, but not everything. The main info in this report, from my perspective, is that the pilots kept trying to pull the airplane's nose up, even as it was entering a stall. I'll explain why that matters in a minute. But there are many things it doesn't address or resolve -- including, as I mentioned soon after the crash, whether a known issue in rudder-control with this model of Airbus plane had any bearing on the crash. Or, how the pilots ended up in the middle of a thunderstorm (right) that other flights were avoiding.

2) The "head pilot was resting" theme probably doesn't matter. Many news reports led off with the info that the flight's captain -- the most experienced, lead pilot on the flight -- was taking his scheduled rest when the problems began, and that the least experienced of the plane's three pilots was at the controls as problems intensified. Anything is possible, but my guess is that it didn't matter. All members of this kind of crew would be highly trained. Moreover, the captain was back in the cockpit within 90 seconds of serious trouble (with the autopilot disengaging), so he would have been part of the discussion about what to do. Deciding on the proper reaction would be more important than executing it with hands on the controls, so the captain would presumably have been involved when it mattered.

3) The plane "stalled," but not in the way you think. The great impediment to accurate coverage of many airplane crashes involves the world "stall." Its normal meaning, to 99 percent of the reading public, is that an engine has stopped or failed. Engines do sometimes fail on airplanes, and in some cases can even stall in the normal sense. But the "stalls" and "stall warning" signals mentioned in the blackbox report mean something entirely different.

An "aerodynamic stall," which maybe is the term we should always use, involves the angle of a wing as it moves through the air. The term of art here is "angle of attack," and it measures how sharply the wing's edge is angled up into the oncoming wind. Bear with me for some illustrations, from this excellent explanatory site. This one shows what angle of attack means.

airFlow.jpg
 
The next sequence shows what a "stall" means, in aerodynamic terms. In the top illustration, the wing is almost horizontal to the oncoming wind, with a very low angle of attack. Let's say it's zero degrees. It produces no lift.

In the middle drawing, the angle of attack is higher -- let's call it eight degrees. At this angle, wind flows over and under the wing in a way that produces more lift than at a lower angle.

But then look at the third illustration:
angleOfAttack.jpg

There the angle of attack is higher still -- let's say, 15 degrees. But instead of producing more lift, it produces much less. The angle the wind would have to follow across the wing is too steep. Instead the airflow is disrupted and the wing (not the engine) "stalls."

The transition from a high angle of attack, to a too-high angle, can be fairly abrupt. You pull back on the controls, raising the nose of the plane and increasing the angle of attack. You get more lift, and more lift -- and then suddenly you get dramatically less. The wings start to shudder, as they are approaching a stall and losing lift; and then, in a fully developed stall, there's a "break" as the plane stops flying and the nose drops to point straight down to the ground. There are lots of variations involving type of plane, whether you're in a turn, and other factors. But the main point is, an airplane "stalls" not because its engines fail but because the pilots have increased the wings' angle of attack too much. This also means that the plane's airspeed is too low.

So when you read frequent references in the Air France report to "stall warnings" etc, they don't mean that there was an engine problem of any sort.* They mean that, for whatever reason, all three members of a professional flight crew responded to warnings that the plane was flying too slowly/had too high an angle of attack -- by deciding to pull back on the controls. Which leads to:

4) This report raises a new question. The new info from the black box concerns, among other things, the "control inputs" the pilots were applying during the last stages of the flight. What they were doing with the throttle to control power, with the ailerons (to roll right or left), with the rudder (to yaw the nose from side to side), and with the elevator (to pitch the nose up or down). Without the black box there would be no way to know those things for sure.

And the main puzzle, as several of the initial stories point out, is why a team of experienced pilots would have kept pulling back on the controls, to increase the nose-up pitch, when the stall warnings were going off. This is a puzzle because being trained to do exactly the opposite is practically the foundation of learn-to-fly courses. If a plane is losing speed and threatening to stall, you recover by pointing the nose sharply down and adding power (plus other things). This reduces the angle of attack, builds air speed, and allows the wings to start providing lift once again.

Every pilot has done this in practice time and again through his or her flying career. "Stall recovery" drills are part of every basic flying curriculum, every recurrent competency drill, every bit of familiarization with a new airplane. I had not flown an airplane for several months because of my recent stay in China. So when I went out this past weekend for a recurrent-training flight, the instructor put me through a series of stall-recovery drills -- exactly as I expected him to do. [Update: several readers have pointed out that among the many differences between flying a small airplane and a big airliner, especially one with the Airbus's "fly by wire" control system, is that in some circumstances the right response in an Airbus can be to raise the nose. At this point I'll acknowledge that I've reached the limits of my first-hand knowledge, and add this to this list of things about which we await more info,]

Why this didn't happen in the Air France cockpit is the next stage of the mystery to explain. I'm sure there was some reason -- these were trained, experienced pilots -- and it probably had to do with the inaccurate or contradictory airspeed indications, the confusion of being in a thunderstorm at night, specific recovery protocols for the Airbus, etc. But it's not yet fully clear, and may never be, what that reason was.

There is more to say about this tragedy at some point -- including the role of the pitot tubes, what auto pilots can and can't do, Airbus-v-Boeing control differences, and similarities to other airline disasters -- but that is what I have time for now. And, of course, sympathies to all affected by the tragedy.
__
* My guess is that the NYT story on the black box report may have initially confused the meanings of "stall," based on this correction:
This article has been revised to reflect the following correction:
Correction: May 27, 2011

This article has been revised to show that the engines of the aircraft operated normally throughout the doomed flight.
And in fact, the original version of the story, from a cache, definitely confused the meanings of "stall" and referred to pilots' efforts to "re-start the engines," whereas in fact the engines worked fine throughout.

UPDATE: A reader who is a pilot sends in this note, which makes sense to me.
>>I thought this AP article by Elaine Ganley and Jill Lawless was particularly well written - an accurate and easily understandable portrayal of the aerodynamic principles involved, using the proper terminology, and an overall balance presentation of what likely happened and whether the pilots responded appropriately.
 
A key passage for me is: "Just over two minutes before the crash, Bonin is heard to say, 'I don't have any more indications." Robert says: "We have no valid indications.' " If that was the case, at night with no visible horizon, I think even an exceptionally well trained and experienced professional pilot would have lost situational awareness and would not have been able to discern the pitch attitude of the aircraft. They may be faulted for not diverting around the storm, but I don't see how they can be blamed for their actions in the cockpit once the problems developed if they had lost all their instruments.<<
Update-update: Comment-on-the-comment after the jump.

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Air France Crash Reports

The latest reports about the Air France crash investigation are interesting significant -- and when I get to a "real" computer in about three hours, I'll say more about them. This is just a placeholder note to say: watch this space.

For background just after the crash, see this and this.

Three Sobering Notes About China

1) Cancer. Today's report, from the Earth Policy Institute, that cancer has become the leading cause of death in China. As the report says:
The usual plagues of poverty--infectious diseases and high infant mortality--have given way to diseases more often associated with affluence, such as heart disease, stroke, and cancer.

While this might be expected in China's richer cities, where bicycles are fast being traded in for cars and meat consumption is climbing, it also holds true in rural areas. In fact, reports from the countryside reveal a dangerous epidemic of "cancer villages" linked to pollution from some of the very industries propelling China's explosive economy.
As anyone who has traveled inside China knows, pollution and environmental devastation really are the nation's number-one emergency, and the main barrier to continuation of the past 30 years' economic boom. The government has started working hard on this problem, but it is a more serious one than is generally publicized.

2) Communications. As I noted several times in my most recent two-month stint in Beijing, internet disruptions, via the Great Firewall, are much more extensive and harder to get around than in the innocent "pre-Jasmine" days. (The "Jasmine" movement was an embryonic Chinese version of the "Arab Spring." To be sure it never got beyond embryo stage, the government has gone all-out in controlling domestic communications and organization. More on this later.) For days on end I found it essentially impossible to contact the outside world via normal channels, notably including Gmail. The crucial difference is that the government began seriously and systematically disrupting VPNs -- the Virtual Private Networks that previously been a costly but near-certain way of getting around restrictions.

A report today says that VPN interference is becoming the norm. This is bad news on many fronts -- not least its impact on Chinese-based scholars, businesses, designers. More on this later, in the magazine.

3) Surveillance. A grim but realistic report today from Al Jazeera's excellent Melissa Chan, about what it means to try to practice journalism inside China. Plus, the video below, by Stephen McDonell of Australia's ABC, is quite vivid in showing what it is like to be trailed by Chinese authorities at every turn. This was in the course of his reporting a story about underground churches in China. Believe me, this is worth watching.



I should say that this never happened to me (although everyone obviously knew I was a foreigner), probably because I didn't have to traipse around with a camera crew. Also, a point that will be evident to people in China but perhaps not to those outside: the highly-obtrusive team trailing after McDonell is almost certainly from the local or provincial government, not the central authorities. Often the problems journalists have are worst with local potentates.

This is all part of the endless simultaneously good-and-bad, promising-and-discouraging mix of trends inside China. Essay question: the Chinese government's response on issue #1 is fully suitable to an ambitious, advanced nation. But the other two? Is this the way a "rising power" is supposed to behave, even while still in the developing stage? Discuss. Extra credit essay: analyze the consequences to future high-value industries of preventing your nation's people from using Google. As part of this essay: Explain whether using Baidu is quite the same.

Two Craft Points on Obama's Parliament Speech

It was an admirable speech, and so on, but that's not what interests me. Instead let's consider beginnings and endings.

Beginnings. You can usually see the "light" or "droll" touches in speeches like this coming from miles away. Therefore they are usually met with obligatory polite laughter, masking the inner groans. The second and third jokes Obama made at the opening of the speech were from this proud tradition:
Of course, all relationships have their ups and downs.  Admittedly, ours got off on the wrong foot with a small scrape about tea and taxes.  (Laughter.)  There may also have been some hurt feelings when the White House was set on fire during the War of 1812.  (Laughter.)
Hardee-har! When an American President visits the UK, there has to be a "light" remark of this sort about those early "unfortunate misunderstandings" and that time the Brits burned the White House down.

But the first joke he told was genuinely funny, because in the circumstances it was genuinely daring:
I have known few greater honors than the opportunity to address the Mother of Parliaments at Westminster Hall.  I am told that the last three speakers here have been the Pope, Her Majesty the Queen, and Nelson Mandela -- which is either a very high bar or the beginning of a very funny joke.  (Laughter.)  
Daring? Yes. The day after having dinner with the Queen, when addressing the Parliament of which she is nominal supreme leader, to raise in everyone's mind the image of a joke starting, "the Queen, the Pope, and Nelson Mandela walk into a bar..." was a risk. Obama's straight-arrow bearing increases the incongruity and therefore the power of the joke. (Imagine George W. Bush telling it.) I would love to have heard the discussions about whether it was a "seemly" thing to say, in that setting. Glad they used it, because it worked.

2) Endings. In circumstances where his otherwise-obligatory speech ending obviously does not fit, Obama has found a new and worthy formulation to use. What he said to the Brits is a minor variant of what he said in his speech about the Arab world and the Middle East last week. Today to the Parliament:
With courage and purpose, with humility and with hope, with faith in the promise of tomorrow, let us march straightforward together, enduring allies in the cause of a world that is more peaceful, more prosperous, and more just.
Last week, in the Arab-world speech:
Now, we cannot hesitate to stand squarely on the side of those who are reaching for their rights, knowing that their success will bring about a world that is more peaceful, more stable, and more just.
We have found a theme.

Cory Lidle Plane Crash: the Jury Speaks

250px-Cory_Lidle.jpgIn the fall of 2006, just after the Detroit Tigers eliminated the New York Yankees from post-season play, Yankee pitcher Cory Lidle (right, from Wikipedia) died in a tragic and spectacular plane crash. Lidle, who was a brand new pilot, and his flight instructor were both killed when their small Cirrus SR-20 airplane smashed into a building on the Upper East Side of Manhattan. For obvious reasons, there was panic in the immediate aftermath of the crash. Had the long-feared next wave of airborne terrorist attacks finally begun?

It wasn't that -- just a terrible accident -- but still it was bad enough, with many people injured on the ground apart from the two families suddenly left without husbands and fathers. I was in China by then, but since I'd spent years flying the same kind of plane as Lidle's, I wrote several explanatory items just after the crash. The first was about the knowns and unknowns of the crash -- and whether it was probably a terrorist act (answer: No). The second was about the very unusual place where the accident occurred: an aerial "box canyon," in which pilots had to execute a very steep U-turn to stay out of controlled airspace. The third went further into that "box canyon" airspace issue.

A few months later, the families of Lidle and the flight instructor, Tyler Stanger, sued the manufacturer of the airplane, Cirrus Design (now Cirrus Aircraft, and soon to be Chinese-owned), saying that the plane's defects had caused the crash. They asked more than $40 million in damages. I'm no lawyer, but I indicated my sympathy for the families but skepticism about the claim here and here. The NTSB, in its final report on the accident, found that there was nothing wrong with the airplane and that, tragically, "The pilots placed themselves in a precarious situation that could have been prevented by better judgment and planning." The NTSB also produced a dramatic animated graphic, showing the difficulty of making the "box canyon" turn. Airspace rules have been changed since the crash to make it harder for pilots to get into this predicament.

Yesterday a jury in New York, after three hours of deliberation, ruled against the families, and in favor of Cirrus, in dismissing claims that the airplane or the manufacturer was at fault. There will be appeals, and the families say that the judge kept crucial info from the jury. We'll see. This is a closing-the-loop update. For other comments on the verdict, you can hear from a lawyer-pilot and a sports-fan pilot.

None of this changes the terrible loss for those young families.

Even More on Second Languages

In two items last week, a short one about the spectacle of Harvard undergrads singing a parody song in Chinese, and a longer one full of testimonials from language-learners around the world, I examined the question of why two non-native speakers of a language could often understand each other more easily than if either of them was dealing with a native speaker.

It turns out that actual knowledge exists on this point! One academic wrote in to say:
There's a name for this:  the "mismatched interlanguage speech intelligibility benefit," as demonstrated by two linguists, Tessa Bent and Ann Bradlow.
You can find the Bent-Bradlow paper on PubMed and other sources.

In the realm of anecdotage, readers write in as follows. First, about Semitic languages:
>>My experience is a little different than the majority of your respondents, but I think I have a good idea why. I speak Arabic as a second language, but the context which I learned was primarily through contact with my family and their friends, rather than the classroom. Granted, I did learn in a classroom as well, but most of the people in my class were in the same situation that I was in (parents are 1st or 2nd generation immigrants, native speakers in the family, etc.) As a result, I have little difficulty understanding native speakers*, but have a bear of a time understanding non-native speakers (and vice versa).

The notable exception is speaking with non-native Jewish speakers that also speak Hebrew. I find that I have a hard time understanding what sound they are trying to make. Also, non-native speakers are more likely to speak and understand textbook MSA, rather than conversational Arabic. I'm sure this situation is relatively unique, but it's another data point.
 
* As it made eavesdropping on my parents easier as a kid. In fact, my comprehension is better than my ability to speak.<<
Next, from Japan:
>>I speak Japanese as a second language and would add the following
observations to those you've already compiled:

 -  I find it easier to understand non-native Japanese speakers, but I find it easier to speak to native Japanese speakers. This is because I tend to feed off the rhythms, accent, and tone of the person speaking to me and if that rhythm is broken, I find my own output becomes broken as well.

- I find that if I speak to a Japanese person one-on-one (with my wife for example), that I am able to understand or at least make out syllabic-ally everything that is being said. However, I often have trouble understanding overheard conversation between Japanese natives (for example, on the train or on the subway). Part of this is just that my brain start to tune out and everything they say becomes a blur, whereas, were they speaking English, I would be unable to block them out even if I tried

- With people that I am used to hearing speak Japanese or relatively familiar topics, this effect decreases. For example, at the office, I understand my coworkers overheard conversation a majority of the time. However, if we were to leave the office and go to a bar, I might have more trouble.

- I would echo the points one of your readers made about English-to-English translation, ie if you had a native and  non-native  English speaker having a conversation, it is often more effective to simplify the native's English than to try to interpret by switching languages.

- Further to this, I find it nearly impossible to maintain conversation when I'm speaking one language and the other person replies in the other. My wife tries to get me to do this by asking me to speak English and responding in Japanese,  but I find it difficult. If she responds to me in English, however, there is usually no problem.<<

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Your Beijing Street Signs, Explained

Thanks to all who wrote in with guesses about the meaning of this not-entirely-obvious "thou shalt not" sign in Beijing's Ritan Park:

Thumbnail image for IMG_3006.JPG

Thumbnail image for Thumbnail image for CarBomb.jpgAnd this smaller oddball one, from the Central Business District:

After the jump, another Beijing sign that should make the meaning of the first one immediately clear. For now, congratulations to Alex Woods, who was first with the right answer; and to Osama Abbas Khan, who was about two minutes later.

Some other worthy guesses:
I'm guessing the first one is something like, "Don't harm the trees."
 
The best guess within our office on the second one is "No al-Qaeda bombings in this block." If it was in London, it might translate as "No al-Qaeda bombings in this block.  We apologise for any inconvenience."
 __
"No Fishboning Permitted!!!"
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"Don't pull the martial arts weapons off the pine trees"
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The sign must mean: "Don't step on the fishbones lying on the ground, because it will make a funny noise."
__
My guess - "cutting down trees and/or removing tree branches is prohibited."
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Beware of falling Douglas fir twigs?
__
For the second one: "Low Clearance Ahead - Do Not Proceed with Peacock Displaying on Roof."

[From another reader: "As for the car bomb graphic, it might also be admonishing drivers not to allow a peacock to escape via the sunroof!"
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No chickens allowed in redwoods
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No Rapture?
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Don't spit your bones on the floor
__
I've been to Beijing (perhaps even to this park?) but I can't say I've ever seen that sign before.  To me it looks like a pine branch and suggests "don't muck up the pine trees" but that would be a bit weird.  So I'm going to guess it means something more like "Don't walk on the grass / stay on the path".  That would make sense given that it's a park and there are times that sections might need to be re-seeded and there definitely is an element of "don't trample" in that sign.

So that's my guess, from a confused White guy.
__
What is "No collecting firewood", Alex?
__
It obviously means, "Don't catch yourself in your zipper."

And that's good advice in any language!
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Don't bury fishbones in the park.
__
So I'm dying to know what the sign meant. My guess was don't climb the trees.
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No firewood collection. Or no breaking limbs from trees for firewood.
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It means "Do not jostle the pine branches." Not knowing any better, I actually did this as a visitor last year at Mt. Huangshan because the wafts of pine pollen are much too mesmerizing and was warned by a security-person to stop.
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My guess: Don't leave fish bones lying around after picnicking on fish.

Do I win a free subscription?

No, but you have my gratitude for a good effort. Answers after the jump.

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On Creativity, Taiwanese Soft Power, and 'Cultural Bonds Being Reknit'

In the most recent of my frequent paeans to Next Media Animation of Taiwan, I mentioned that the relatively small population of Taiwan was enjoying considerable creative and pop culture influence now -- especially compared with mainland China -- with resulting "soft power" benefits for Taiwan in general. (The latest NMA animation, by the way, is about the pending SF ban on circumcision.) A reader with a Chinese name has an explanation.

First, why do I say things like "a reader with a Chinese name"? It's because when I get a message from someone with a name like Zhang Ping, I have no idea whether the writer grew up in Beijing and still lives there; grew up in Hangzhou but now lives in Paris; grew up and still lives in New Haven; has always lived in Taipei; etc. On the other hand, the Chinese-name ID seems significant, versus someone named John Smith. So now you know.

This Chinese-named reader, wherever he or she is writing from, says the following, which I think is worth reading to the end:
>>With regards to NMA news and Taiwanese soft power, I have a couple thoughts, in no particular order.

1. NMA news is quite unique in that it is the one sliver of Taiwanese pop culture that is readily visible to the American public. It's not the tip of the iceberg, it's a small chunk of ice that fell off the iceberg and started drifting in the opposite direction. Taiwan has a virtually hegemonic grip on Mandarin popular culture. The viral status of crazy animation clips was an entirely unplanned side effect of the HK-Taiwan tabloid industry. It's interesting to ponder the implications of a direct line of communication between Taipei yuppies and the Jon Stewart/Conan-watching American young elite. In the event of cross-strait unrest, an NMA video humorously pleading Taiwan's case might have some effect.

2. The rise of Taiwanese cultural exports can be traced to two events. The return of Hong Kong, and the indigenization of Taiwanese culture and history. In the lead-up to 1997, Hong Kong was a supernova of cultural creativity, showing what Chinese modernity could look like. There is something about existential crisis that breeds creativity (the US in the Vietnam era, W. Germany in the 80s, Taiwan today). After 1997, the baton passed slowly to Taiwan. Secondly, there was a conscious political movement to cultivate Taiwanese culture. In the 80's, it was verboten to even say a good word about the Japanese publicly - it would be like complementing the Nazis. This was loosened in the 90's, and after the pro-independence DPP took power in 2000, the floodgates opened. There is a full-blown re-dredging of Taiwanese history underway, which is reflected in movies, books, music, everything.

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