Campaign Diaries

The AP finally corrected its massive New Haven mistake, and Dan Malloy is now leading by 4,300 votes - a 12,000-vote swing since the AP’s evening numbers. With the remaining ten precincts all located in Bridgeport, Malloy looks in a good position to become Connecticut’s first Democratic Governor since 1991.

Tom Foley is threatening legal action due to polls remaining open late in parts of the state on Tuesday Night, so hopefully the chaos following AP’s mistake (which allowed Foley to suggest he was the rightful victor) will not unfairly delegitimize Malloy’s victory.

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Connecticut’s turnaround means that Democrats are now in a position to sweep all four of the gubernatorial races that remained too close to call on Wednesday morning: Connecticut, Oregon, Illinois, Minnesota.

Oregon is already settled: The Governor’s race was called for John Kitzhaber last night. Just as in 2008, Portland reported late, putting the Democrat on top. Kitzhaber will have to deal with a divided government, however: The state House will be deadlocked at 30-30 and the state Senate might be deadlocked 15-15, though it will be 16-14 for Democrats if an incumbent’s 200-vote lead holds.

Illinois is quite a comeback story: Governor Pat Quinn has extended his lead to 20,000 votes - and all precincts are in. Provisional ballots remain to be counted, but most of them are reportedly in the Chicago area rather than downstate so it’s very hard to see how they allow Bill Brady pulls ahead. The race is close enough  for the Republican to ask for a recount, but 20,000 is a big margin to overcome.

The situation is similar in Minnesota: All precincts are now reporting, and Mark Dayton is clinging to a 9,000-vote lead. This is enough to trigger an automatic recount, but despite the parallels to the 2008 Senate race Dayton’s lead is 12 times larger than Norm Coleman’s was immediately after the election. The GOP can pursue its options, but Dayton supporters can breath easily.

With Oregon already under their belt, Democrats would limit the damage at the gubernatorial level if they hold on to their leads in and clinch Illinois, Minnesota and Connecticut. The GOP would then gain a net 5 governorships, which is certainly a large number but Republicans were hoping for gains approaching the 8-10 range. (That said, the GOP’s victory in Florida is a very big deal - and is by itself enough to offset any regret the party might have elsewhere.)

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At the Senate level, two races remain have yet to be called: Washington and Alaska.

With ballots allowed to be postmarked on Election Day, Washington counts notoriously slowly. But Patty Murray currently leads by 28,000 votes and she is likely to keep that edge given the large number of ballots still to be counted in King County and given that she is more than meeting the benchmark she needed in that Democratic stronghold.

In Alaska, “write-in candidates” are leading Republican Joe Miller by 13,000 votes (41% to 34%), which seems like a big enough margin that Lisa Murkowski looks like the favorite going forward. Election officials will start going through write-in ballots next Wednesday, and Murkowski has to hope that no more than 13,000 of the 83,201 “write-in” ballots: (1) were cast for another write-in candidate, (2) misspelled her name so badly as to be invalidated.

If Murkowski prevails, four of the five most emblematic Tea Party candidates will have lost on Tuesday: Miller, Angle, Buck and O’Donnell. Only Rand Paul would have made it to the Senate. (You could argue Marco Rubio should count, but he really is far more of an establishment candidate than any of those I just mentioned.) However, the Tea Party scored a lot of juicy victories in House races, some of them in big upsets.

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Republicans have already secured a net gain of 58 seats, but 10 House races are still uncalled: CA-11, CA-20, AZ-7, AZ-8, IL-8, KY-6, NY-25, TX-27, WA-2 and VA-11. (WA-9 was called for Democratic Rep. Adam Smith yesterday afternoon.) All are Democratic seats.

Democrats are currently trailing in 4:

• TX-27: Rep. Solomon Ortiz is trailing by 800 votes in TX-27 with all precincts reporting, and media reports do not suggest the existence of large number of absentee or provisional ballots.
• CA-20: Rep. Jim Costa is trailing by 17,000 1,700 with all precincts reporting, but a staggering number of provisional ballots remain to be counted - and most of them reportedly come from the counties that have favored Costa. KMPH reports that 98,000 provisional ballots have to be counted in Democratic Fresno and Kern Counties and just 500 in Republican Kings County! If those numbers are even remotely correct, Costa is favored to hold on.
• NY-25: After leading by about 6,000 votes early Wednesday afternoon, Rep. Dan Maffei suddenly found himself trailing by 600 votes once the final precincts reported from a conservative county. Thousands of absentee ballots remain to be counted and count still change the outlook, with some reports suggesting that more come from the Maffei-friendly county. The race remains too close to call.
• IL-8: In what would be the biggest upset of the year, Melissa Bean is trailing by 550 votes with all precincts reporting. But thousands of absentee ballots remain, and one paper calculates that Bean could pull it off if they break the way already counted absentee ballots do.

Democrats currently lead in 6:

• CA-11: With all precincts reporting, Rep. Jerry McNerney is clinging to a 121-lead. With thousands of absentee ballots still to be counted, this could go either way.
• AZ-7: Many provisional ballots remain, but it would be a surprise if Rep. Grijalva lost his 2% lead.
• AZ-8: Rep. Giffords leads by 2,000 votes but a huge number of provisional ballots remain to be counted in unpredictable Pima County (47,000, to be exact!). It will probably take a while before we get a call here.
• KY-6: Rep. Ben Chandler’s lead shrank to 600 votes, but all precincts are now reporting. We await the count of absentee ballots, but media reports suggest they should not be enough for Andy Barr to overtake Chandler’s lead.
• WA-2: Only 70% of ballots have been counted, so it’s far too early to tell whether Rep. Larsen can keep his current 500-vote lead.
• VA-11: With all ballots apparently counts, Rep. Gerry Connolly leads by slightly less than 1000 votes. We now move to a routine recanvass. Fimian could then ask for a recount, but if the recanvass doesn’t allow him to close the gap it will be hard to see Connolly going down.

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That leaves us with down-ballot races, and while I am not going to go through all of them, two I am following are California’s Attorney General race and the New York state Senate.

In California, Democrat (and progressive-favorite) Kamala Harris seized a lead late on Tuesday night - but it has since been shrinking. With tens of thousands of absentee and provisional ballots remaining to be counted, she is up by about 8,000 votes. And in New York, the GOP will capture a 32-30 seat majority in the chamber if current leads hold, but three seats have yet to be called.

One last thing: Some of you might remember that back in the spring I was perplexed (to say the least) at the DSCC’s disdain towards Elaine Marshall. Given the political environment this fall, I certainly don’t think she could have won had she been treated differently. But I just wanted to point out that Marshall ended up running stronger than Robin Carnahan in Missouri, Paul Hodes in New Hampshire and Lee Fisher in Ohio.

5:30pm: All is not lost for Melissa Bean in IL-8, but it might take a few days to know the final results in a district few people had on their list. (It’s one of three districts I listed as “likely Democratic” in which the GOP is leading.) She has closed the gap to 550 votes and 9000 absentee ballots remain; an extrapolation based on the absentee ballots already counted suggest she could survive. Another Democrat who looked to be in rough shape but could pull it out is Jerry McNerney in CA-11; with all precincts reporting, he is ahead by a small 121 votes so that race will be decided by the remaining absentee ballots.

Things are a bit more clear in other remaining House races: CA-20 has yet to be called, but Democratic Rep. Costa is trailing by 2% so it’s hard to see absentee ballots saving him. Rep. Grijalva has claimed victory in AZ-7. In AZ-8, Rep. Giffords is on top by 2000 votes but there are a lot of provisional ballots to be counted. In KY-6 and VA-11, Democrats Ben Chandler and Gerry Connolly are ahead by 600 votes and 1000 votes with all precincts reporting. And that leaves us with NY-25 and the Washington seats, where we’re just waiting for additional counts.

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4:30pm: Let’s continue deciphering through the results. As I have already pointed out several times, the true site of the Democratic bloodbath is at the legislative level. Hundreds of Democratic seats flipped to Republicans, wiping off much of the party’s bench in many states. In New Hampshire, the Senate went from 14-10 Democratic to 19-5 Republican; the Assembly went from 222-176 Democratic to 296-104 Republican - just staggering losses. In the Michigan House, a 23-seat Democratic advantage became a 13-seat Republican advantage. In the Iowa House, a 13-seat Democratic advantage became a 22-seat Republican advantage.

In the Texas House, which Democrats once had some hope of picking-up, they collapsed from 73 seats out of 150 to about 50. In the Montana House, a 50-50 tie has been transformed into a 40-seat Republican advantage. In North Carolina, Republicans not only seized both chambers for the first time in 120-years, but they did so very decisively! In the Tennessee House, a 2-seat Republican edge is now a 31-seat Republican edge. In the Michigan Senate, Republicans now hold 71% of seats; in the Ohio Senate, 69% of seats! And the list goes on, with staggering Democratic losses in places like Minnesota (which I already mentioned), Wisconsin, Alabama, Arkansas and Pennsylvania.

Here again, California bucked the trend; both chambers remained pretty much stable. Democrats also appear to have saved endangered majorities in the Nevada Senate, the Colorado Senate and both chambers of the Washington legislature.

Democrats can also point to strong results in other down-ballot races, none more important than Kamala Harris’s apparent victory in the California Attorney General race. The San Francisco DA appears to have prevailed by about 15,000 votes (the race has yet to be called, but all precincts have reported). This means that California really was golden for Democrats in general, as they swept all statewide offices, but for progressives in particular. Eric Schneiderman clinched his victory last night, but he is another very bright spot for the left.

However, Richard Cordray and Dan Gelber’s defeats in Ohio and Florida’s Attorney General races are tough blows for Democrats; Cordray in particular had launched investigations into foreclosure fraud (he lost to former Senator Mike DeWine). Another victory for conservatives, this one in Iowa: They failed to get one of their own elected Attorney General in a fiercely contested race, but they managed to oust all three of Iowa Justices who were up for retention this year over their vote to legalize gay-marriage.

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12:30pm: Dan Malloy will be the next Connecticut Governor, a comforting pick-up for Democrats who have been chasing this governorship since 1991! Malloy was the slight favorite through the fall but Foley mounted a late surge that nearly overtook the Stamford Mayor. Democrats will now have full control of state government, as they held on to their legislative majorities.

However, it’s becoming increasingly clear just how brutal Election Day was for Democrats at the state level. No result is more shocking than Minnesota: Democrats had a 87-47 majority in the state House and a 46-21 majority in the state Senate. They lost control of both, in what amounts to an unbelievable bloodbath of incumbents. (And yet, Democrat Mark Dayton is clinging to a 9,000 vote lead in the Governor’s race.) And it also looks like Democrats will lose control of the New York state Senate after all, which will be rough both in terms of state government and very importantly of redistricting. On the other hand, Democrats can look towards Hawaii, where they picked-up a state Senate to expand their majority to… 24-1!

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11am: Good morning everyone! The dust is settling on last night’s bloodbath, but Democrats just got an important call in Colorado: The Denver Post project Senator Michael Bennet has won re-election, yet another remarkable save for the party given how brutal things got down-ballot. This means that some of the Tea Party’s most prized candidates (Sharron Angle, Ken Buck and Christine O’Donnell) went down last night; I doubt the GOP would have lost these races had these three candidates lost their primary. This leaves Washington as the sole Democratic-held seat left on the map, and at the moment Democrats look likely to prevail; that would leave the GOP at +6.

But on the gubernatorial front, the GOP just got one of their best results of the night: In what was one of Election Day’s biggest prizes, the Florida governorship went to Rick Scott. Alex Sink substantially outperformed compared to nearly all other Democrats in her state, but FL just sung too far to the right this year - as early voting patterns had already predicted. However, Florida voters also deprived Republicans of their gerrymandering power, which should be huge in 2012: Amendments 5 and 6 both passed with more than 60%, so politicians will now be bound by tight rules in drawing new maps. Florida has some of the most gerrymandered maps in the country, so this should bode well for Democrats improving their current share of 6 House seats out of the state’s 25…

Another gubernatorial pick-up the GOP just secured: Maine, which elected a staunch conservative in a 3-way race (Paul LePage). Democrats do have some good news to celebrate at the Governor’s level, however: Peter Shumlin will be the next Governor of Vermont, while Mark Dayton and Pat Quinn are holding on in Minnesota and Illinois - the latter being one of the night’s most stunning survivors. In Connecticut, Democrat Dan Malloy trailed all night but he has now taken a small lead over Tom Foley; that would be an important pick-up for the party. Oregon remains close.

At the House level, MI-9 has been called for Democrats, and I can’t imagine AZ-7 and AZ-8 won’t be called soon either. Rep. Gerry Connolly held on as the final VA-11 precincts were counted, but this could go to a recount; but Rep. Costa, who led when I went to bed last night, is now trailing in CA-20 by 700 votes. In CA-11, Rep. Jerry McNerney is ahead by 121 votes with all precincts counted; this should go to absentee ballots and probably a recount.

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4:50am: This will be my final update for the night. And I don’t need to tell you how brutal this was for Democrats: A House swing of about 60 seats was an unthinkable outcome just a year ago - and as I point out below it is still plausible that the final number approach the 70-seat mark for the GOP!

There are some silver-lining for House Democrats, starting with the fact that the biggest losers seem to be Blue Dog incumbents; also, the many House districts they had grown worried about that they saved (all the Massachusetts, Iowa and Maine districts). And Democrats looking for consolation would do best to look at the Senate, where Harry Reid’s unlikely victory and Michael Bennet and Patty Murray’s competitive showing means that the GOP might be held to a gain of 6 seats - a showing that is at the lower-end of what was the range of realistic outcomes. (Both CO and WA remain too close to call, however.) That said, Democrats will only control 52-53 Senate seats next year, a far tougher proposition than the 111th Congress’s 59. And Joe Sestak and Alexi Giannoulias’s close losses have to depress Democrats.

But it is at the local level that the GOP has the most to celebrate. Here, it really was a bloodbath. Just take a look at the Minnesota House: Democrats had a 87-47 majority going in, but Republicans seized control of the chamber! The same thing happened in Michigan’s House. The GOP also has full control of the North Carolina legislature for the first time in 120 years; they picked-up both chambers of Wisconsin and New Hampshire’s legislature. In Pennsylvania, Ohio and Indiana, they seized the state House to complement their already existing Senate majority. And contrary to what I wrote earlier, it does look like the GOP captured the narrowest of majorities in the New York Senate. This will mean Republicans will have a lot of latitude to implement policies at the state level, not to mention they’ll have control over redistricting in a lot of states.

Also: Longtime Rep. Jim Oberstar has fallen in MN-8, so make that +59 for the GOP and another depressing loss for Democrats.

And one last comment: If Democrats had to pick just one state in which to do uncharacteristically well in (in fact, sweep most everything), they would probably have to choose California. And that’s what has happened.

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4:30am: A recap of what’s left uncounted:

• Senate: Republicans stand at +6. Colorado and Washington are outstanding, and Democrats are at this hour optimistic they will hold both. That said, there is still a long way to go in Washington and Ken Buck is still 9000 votes ahead in Colorado - a margin Democrats are hopeful they can overcome since Denver and Boulder are underreporting. Alaska has also not been called, but Scott McAdams is out of the running so the race will remain in GOP hand; we might not know for weeks whether Lisa Murkowski or Joe Miller win the race.
• House: Republicans stand at +58. (I shouldn’t have put KY-6 and IL-8 in the Democratic and GOP column, respectively, so I pulled them back.) The following House races are still uncalled: AZ-7, AZ-8, MI-9, VA-11, WA-9, NY-25, and KY-6 (where Democrats are currently ahead); IL-8 and MN-8 (where Republicans are currently ahead); and CA-11, CA-20 and WA-2, where things are pretty much tied. So we’re talking about a wave that could still go as high as +70!
• Governor: Democrats holding on to an unlikely 9000-vote lead in Illinois and a more expected 9000-vote lead in Minnesota; they are also slightly ahead in Vermont. Republicans, meanwhile, remain ahead in Florida, Connecticut and Oregon. Each of these races could still turn around. Connecticut, for instance: Only 26% of New Haven and none of Bridgeport has reported, which could be enough for Dan Malloy to close the 11,000 vote gap.

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4am: California is a bright spot for the left tonight. First, voters elected Democrats in all but one of the statewide races; that one race is the Attorney General contest, which is too close to call. Second, they rejected Proposition 23, which would have suspended the state’s law aimed at battling global warming. Third, they passed Proposition 25, which allows the budget to be passed by a majority-vote rather than a 2/3rds-vote. This enhances the powers of state Democrats; and given that the party will also control the Governor’s Mansion thanks to Jerry Brown’s victory, this should change the tenor of California’s fiscal debates over the next few years.

3:55am: Make it +59, as Rep. Walt Minnick has been defeated by Raul Labrador in ID-1. This is just a brutal district for Democrats, but Labrador had been almost entirely abandoned by Republicans so this has to be considered an upset victory for the GOP.

3:50am: Coleen Hanabusa has picked-up Hawaii’s 1st District from GOP Rep. Charles Djou. This is Democrats’ third-pick of the night (really, Dan Seals, really?). And that will be it for them, since CA-3 was just called for GOP Rep. Lungren despite Bera’s surprisingly strong challenge. My count now leaves the GOP at +57 in the House, with 10 Dem-held districts still up in the air.

3:40am: Dan Malloy trails by 25,000 votes in Connecticut’s gubernatorial race after a late surge by Republican Tom Foley that had been picked-up over the past week-end. His hope: Bridgeport hasn’t reported anything, which will close the gap, but he will need more. Can he find it? The situation is similar in Florida, where Alex Sink still trails by 55,000 votes as state officials have apparently decided to stop counting for the night.

3:25am: Of the 11 important House races that have yet to be called. Democrats are at the moment slightly ahead in AZ-7, AZ-8, HI-1, MI-9, VA-11 and WA-9. Republicans are slightly ahead in ID-1 and MN-8. CA-11, CA-20 and WA-2 are just very very close at the moment.

3:25am: Ken Buck’s lead has collapsed to 700 votes in Colorado, and there’s still a long way to go. If Democrats pull off that race and also win Washington, where they’re feeling confident, they’ll have managed to hold their losses in the upper-chamber to just 6 seats - the lower-end of realistic outcomes. That would be a surprisingly good result given that the House landscape was far more brutal.

3:10am: By my count, Republicans have clinched 61 Democratic-held House seats at this point while losing 2, putting them at a net +58. Also by my count, the result in 11 races (one of them held by the GOP) remains up in the air: CA-11, CA-20, AZ-7, AZ-8, HI-1, ID-1, IL-8, MI-9, MN-8, VA-11, WA-2. (KY-6, CA-47, NY-25, WA-9 have not been called yet, but Democratic incumbents look like they’ve hang on.) That means the GOP’s upper-limit at this point is a staggering +68! I might have forgotten districts, however.

2:50am: With all precincts reporting, Rep. Dina Titus is trailing by 2000 votes in NV-3, another tough loss for Democrats. The formidable Harry Reid machine was not enough to pull her across the finish-line… In better news for Democrats, Rep. Jim Matheson held on in UT-2 thanks to the late counting of the Salt Lake votes.

Also: I apologize for dropping the ball on keeping an overall look of the House, I will try to pull that together soon so we know where we stand more clearly.

2:40am: If this holds, it would be an important save for Democrats - one I am surprised they managed given how rough things got for New York’s House incumbents: It appears that the New York state Senate will remain in Democratic hands, as both parties picked-up two seats. Two Democratic-held seats have yet to be called, but one has finished counting and the GOP would have to win both to secure control. For Democrats to take full control of state government would mean the ability to draw the new legislative and congressional maps, which would put freshmen Republican House members on the defensive.

2:30am: I admit I underestimated Pat Quinn’s survival skills, as the Illinois Governor is hanging on by 8000 votes with 93% reporting. Two more very tight Democratic leads in Vermont and Minnesota. And a fourth gubernatorial race that has yet to be called is Florida, where Rick Scott has a 55,000 vote lead; but Democratic counties are underreporting. We’ve stuck at 89% reporting for at least an hour, however.

2:20am: Oregon joins Massachusetts in saving all of its vulnerable Democrats, with OR-5 the last to be called. The gubernatorial race is too close to call: Republican Dudley is leading 50-48, but Multnomah County (Portland) is underreporting.

2:15am: Rep. John Salazar goes down in CO-3. He had picked-up this red-leaning seat in 2004, another tough year for his party, so Democrats were hoping he could outperform yet again. Also in Colorado, Republicans captured a majority of the state House. And yet, Michael Bennet isn’t out of it - far from it: The Senator trails by 9,000 votes with 80% of ballots reporting, but Boulder and Denver are both underreporting.

Democrats can still hope to hold the GOP at a relatively disappointing 6-seat Senate gain, but they’ll have to win both Colorado and Washington.

2:10am: While we weren’t looking, IN-2 was called for Rep. Joe Donnelly and NM-1 was called for Martin Heinrich, both important saves for Democrats. Also, Rep. Carnahan barely survived in MO-5; he wasn’t expected to lose, but given how rough Missouri turned out to be for Democrats, they should be relieved he hang on. In ot

her races we were following early in the night, Rep. Chandler is hanging on by 600 votes in KY-6 (99% reporting) and Rep. Connolly is hanging on by 500 votes in VA-11 (99% reporting). Both races should go into overtime, with a fair amount of absentee ballots to be counted in VA-11.

2am: Note that New York Democrats are now saying that they will keep the New York Senate. I’ll try to look at the race-by-race picture now; if true, it would be an important save for Democrats, who would be able to gerrymander the state map to take out some of the 5 Republicans who were just elected to the House tonight. Speaking of New York, Rep. Tom Bishop has been called the winner in NY-1; Rep. Dan Maffei appears like he’ll survive in NY-25.

1:55am: If you thought the House was brutal for Democrats, the state legislatures are just a bloodbath. The GOP has seized control only of chambers that looked well within its reach (the Ohio House, the Indiana House and the Pennsylvania House, both chambers of the New Hampshire ), but also of chambers that looked like probable Democratic holds: the Michigan House, both chambers of the North Carolina legislature. The GOP will also control both chambers of the Wisconsin legislature, giving them full control of that’s state government given Scott Walker’s election to the Governor’s Mansion.

1:50am: Here’s a nice victory for Democrats: Neil Abercrombie will the next Hawaii Governor. In HI-1, Coleen Hanabusa has the early lead against GOP Rep. Charles Djou in what would be just the third pick-up for Democrats (oh Dan Seals…)

1:40am: Who knew places like Georgia and North Carolina would be so much more kind to Democrats than New York or Pennsylvania? I just noticed that Rep. Bishop has pulled ahead by 2% in GA-2 after trailing for much of the night; Rep. Barrow defended GA-12. That means conservative Rep. Marshall is the night’s only Georgia loser - that’s one loss Democrats can live with. But the GOP can smile in the gubernatorial race. While it was clear Nathan Deal was the favored going into Election Day, it looked like he might miss the 50% threshold to avoid a runoff; he easily cleared it, and he will be the next Georgia Governor. Democrats once were hopeful about this race.

1:25am: Democrats have now lost two seats in Arizona, with Rep. Mitchell losing re-election in AZ-5. However, Democrats are holding on to narrow leads in AZ-7 and AZ-8, which would both be important saves for the party; the night isn’t over there, however. And Democrats can also be relieved for having saved CA-18… though a lot of California races remain on the table: CA-20, CA-11 and CA-47.

1:20am: Democrats are holding on to small leads in Minnesota and Vermont’s gubernatorial races. But a lot of ballots remain to be counted, and Mark Dayton’s Minnesota lead seems particularly tenuous to me as GOP-leaning districts seem to have undercounted their votes. Florida also remains on the table, as Alex Sink has narrowed Rick Scott’s lead to less than 60,000 votes.

1:10am: Rep. Bill Owens saves his seat in NY-23, even though Rep. Scott Murphy loses in NY-20. I would have expected it to be the other way around. I believe this means that the GOP has netted five seats in NY so far (NY-13, NY-19, NY-20, NY-24, NY-29), and they are still in the hunt in NY-1 and NY-25. Democratic incumbents are narrowly in the lead in both. And in IL-8, Rep. Melissa Bean now trails by just 700 votes; the remaining precincts are in Democratic-leaning territory, but there just aren’t a lot left.

1am: Rep. Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin loses re-election to Kristi Noem in SD-AL, which is among the most important results of the night. The race had long looked like a toss-up, and Democrats will have to move quickly to find out who they’ll be able to run for Senate in 2014 when Tim Johnson probably retires. Republicans have also picked-up open WV-1 , though Democrats should not too sad about this race since their nominee Oliverio had shown signs that he would consider a party switch.

11:55am: Rep. Steve Kagen has fallen in WI-8 and the GOP picked-up the open WI-7 - these two were expected. But here are a Democratic incumbents who survived tough battles and can go on to fight another day: Rep. Ron Kind in WI-3, Rep. Peterson in MN-3, Rep. Peter DeFazio in OR-4, Rep. David Wu in OR-1, Rep. Carolyn McCarthy in NY-4.

11:50am: Reps. Bobby Bright and Mike McMahon lose AL-02 and NY-13, respectively, in what continues to be an unthinkably large GOP tsunami. Note that with Bright’s loss, the Blue Dog Caucus’s most conservative wing has really been decimated; Marshall, Bright, Taylor, Boyd… Who remains besides Dan Boren? In other dismal news for Republicans, Ken Buck has taken a 3% lead in Colorado’s Senate race.

11:47am: Republicans pick-up AZ-1, MI-7 and open NH-02. The latter two races had looked like they were trending Democrats’ way in recent weeks. Democrats are catching very few breaks at the House level, and most of what had looked like toss-ups is going against them.

11:40am: Harry Reid’s victory has been confirmed by the AP and NBC News. It is truly incredible that an incumbent so unpopular was able to win re-election in what has to be one of the most atrocious nights for his party in modern history. And speaking of Democratic survivors, longest-serving congressman Rep. Dingell managed to pull himself across the finish-line in MI-15 and Martin Heinrich is holding on in NM-1.

11:32am: Democrats are scoring victories here and there, but overall it’s hard to know which disaster to highlight. Rep. Melissa Bean is trailing in IL-8; Rep. Solomon Ortiz is trailing in TX-27; Rep. Grijalva is in a tight race in AZ-7. We really shouldn’t be talking about any of these races.

11:30am: Fox calls Harry Reid the victor in Nevada’s Senate race. Wow. Just wow. If this holds, what a save by the Majority Leader. If I had told you a year ago that Democrats would have an atrocious Election Day, who would have imagined Reid would be among the survivors? If Fox’s call holds, this would be as important a save as any for Democrats.

11:25am: Dan Seals has lost IL-10 for the third time in a row. Remind me again why Democrats thought it’d be a good idea to nominate him again? This was as winnable a seat as any Democrats had this year, just brutal that they lost it. Even more brutal: Rep. Melissa Bean is now trailing in IL-8. I had left this race on my chart as “likely Democratic,” and it would be a big big upset.

11:25am: Illinois’s Senate seat has been called for Republican Mark Kirk, yet another brutal loss for Democrats. Republicans have now captured 6 Democratic seats, and all eyes turn to Nevada, Colorado and Washington. While Democratic incumbents are leading in all three at the moment, the same was true in Illinois and Pennsylvania just a few hours ago. This is really a big loss for the party; Joe Sestak might have been the clear underdog, but Democrats had hope Giannoulias would prevail due to Illinois’s clear Democratic leanings.

12:20am: Due to bizarre technical issues, I am no longer able to update my original results thread - so I have moved the party here.

Here is guide to follow tonight’s results, with every race that will be worth calling tonight arranged by poll closing time. In addition to  37 Senates races, 37 gubernatorial contests and more than 140 House races, this list includes a number of important down-ballot elections.

Of course, not all congressional contests are born equal, so I have colored all Senate, House and Governor races that are rated in the most vulnerable categories (anywhere from lean retention to likely take-over) so you can get a better sense of where to focus your attention. Keep an eye especially on Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois and New York as there are a lot of tight congressional races in those four states.

Remember: Some states - some counties! - are extremely slow at reporting, others are much quicker. Since Indiana usually belongs in the former category, I doubt it will be of much use to determine early trends despite the fact that polls close at 6pm in much of the state. Kentucky, on the other hand, could be more useful: By the time the 7pm states start reporting, we should already have formed an idea as to what is happening in KY-03 (which Democrats truly cannot afford to lose) and KY-06.

Another factor to think about: States that have significant early voting will report a huge number of ballots very quickly, giving us a quick sense of where key races are heading. Those states include Nevada and Florida. But of course, But of course, given that Alaska, California, Washington and Hawaii are hosting crucial elections that could help determine control of both chambers of Congress, we are in for a very long night no matter what.

6pm ET

• Kentucky (parts of the state close at 7pm ET): Senate, KY-03, KY-06
  
• Indiana (parts of the state close at 7pm ET): Senate, IN-02, IN-3, IN-08, IN-09. Also: control of state House
  

7pm ET

• Florida (panhandle closes at 8pm ET): Governor, Senate, FL-02, FL-08, FL-12, FL-24, FL-25. Also: Attorney General, Amendment 5 and Amendment 6 (redistricting questions).
• Georgia: Governor, Senate, GA-02, GA-08, GA-12
• New Hampshire (in some localities, option to keep polls open until 8pm): Senate, Governor, NH-01, NH-02. Also: control of state Senate and state Assembly.
  
• South Carolina: Governor, Senate, SC-02, SC-05
• Vermont: Governor, Senate
• Virginia: VA-02, VA-05, VA-9, VA-11

7:30pm ET

• North Carolina (county boards have right to keep polls open until 8:30): Senate, NC-02, NC-04, NC-07, NC-08, NC-11. Also: control of state House and of state Senate.
  
• Ohio: Governor, Senate, OH-01, OH-10, OH-13, OH-15, OH-16, OH-18. Also: Attorney General, Secretary of State, control of state House.
  
• West Virginia: Senate, WV-01, WV-03.

8pm ET

• Alabama: Governor, Senate, AL-02, AL-05. Also: control of state House and state Senate.
  
• Connecticut: Governor, Senate, CT-02, CT-04, CT-05
• Delaware: Senate, DE-AL
• Illinois: Governor, Senate, IL-08, IL-10, IL-11, IL-12, IL-14, IL-17
  
• Maine: Governor, ME-01, ME-02
• Maryland: Governor, Senate, MD-01
• Massachusetts: Governor, MA-04, MA-05, MA-06, MA-10
• Michigan: Governor, MI-03, MI-07, MI-09. Also: control of state House.
  
• Mississippi: MS-01, MS-02, MS-04
• Missouri: Senate, MO-03, MO-04
• New Jersey: NJ-03, NJ-06, NJ-12
• Oklahoma: Governor, OK-02
• Pennsylvania: Governor, Senate, PA-03, PA-04, PA-06, PA-07, PA-08, PA-10, PA-11, PA-12, PA-15, PA-16, PA-17. Also: control of state House.
  
• Tennessee: Governor, TN-04, TN-05, TN-06, TN-08
• Texas (El Paso area closes at 9pm ET): Governor, TX-23, TX-27. Also: control of state House.
  

8:30pm ET

• Arkansas: Governor, Senate, AR-01, AR-02, AR-04

9pm ET

• Arizona: Governor, Senate, AZ-01, AZ-03, AZ-05, AZ-07, AZ-08. Also: Attorney General race.
• Colorado: Governor, Senate, CO-03, CO-04, CO-07. Also: control of state Senate.
  
• Kansas: Governor, Senate, KS-03, KS-04
  
• Louisiana: Senate, LA-02, LA-03
• Minnesota: Governor, MN-01, MN-06, MN-07, MN-08
• Nebraska: Governor, NE-02
• New Mexico: Governor, NM-01, NM-02, NM-03,
• New York: Governor, Senate A, Senate B, NY-04, NY-13, NY-19, NY-20, NY-22, NY-23, NY-24, NY-25, NY-29. Also: Attorney General, control of state Senate.
  
• Rhode Island: Governor, RI-01
• South Dakota: Governor, Senate, SD-AL
• Wisconsin: Governor, Senate, WI-03, WI-07, WI-08
• Wyoming: Governor

10pm ET

• Idaho (parts of the state close at 11pm ET): Governor, ID-01
• Iowa: Governor, Senate, IA-01, IA-02, IA-03. Also: control of state legislature
  
• Montana: control of state House.
• Nevada: Governor, Senate, NV-03. Also: control of state Senate.
  
• North Dakota: Senate, ND-AL
• Utah: Governor, Senate, UT-02.

11pm ET

• California: Governor, Senate, CA-03, CA-11, CA-18, CA-20, CA-45, CA-46, CA-47, CA-48. Also: Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General, Prop 19 (legalizing marijuana), Prop 23 (delaying global warming law), Proposition 25 (budget passage), Proposition 20 and 26 (redistricting).
  
• Hawaii: Governor, Senate, HI-01
• Oregon: Governor, Senate, OR-01, OR-04, OR-05
• Washington: Senate, WA-02, WA-06, WA-08, WA-09
  

1am ET

• Alaska: Governor, Senate, AK-AL
  

Note on closing times: Polls in some states do not close at the same time, either because of differing time zones or because of longer hours in urban areas. I have here listed these state at the time we should expect to start seeing the first results, not the time at which all polls close. In Florida, for instance, networks might not want to make any calls before all polls close at 8pm ET, but if past patterns hold today some counties should start releasing totals after 7pm ET. I have tried to indicate in which states such problems can arise.

In switching from daily to weekly writing, I’ve concentrated on straightforward electoral assesments of congressional and gubernatorial races, but it goes without saying there are hundreds of other crucial elections playing out across the country. Some of them matter for federal politics (most directly by deciding which parties will control redistricting in each state), though many state-level races should also interest people nationally.

With two days to go before the election, all I have time for is a quick rundown of some of the most important down-ballot contests you should be looking at on Tuesday night. Or more realistically given how much we all have to keep track of that day, check on Wednesday.

—

Referenda

California’s Prop 19 (legalizing pot): This proposition has understandably been one of the highest-profile elections anywhere in the country, but its chances of passage have diminished through October as opponents of legalizing marijuana have ramped up their campaign and as the Obama Administration announced it would still enforce federal law. However, Many Democrats credit the proposition with making young voters interested in the election and thus helping Barbara Boxer and Jerry Brown.

California’s Prop 23 (global warming): Heavily funded by energy corporations, this proposition would suspend implementation of California’s global warming law, which aimed at curbing greenhouse gas emissions. Undoubtedly one of the most important elections on the ballot this year.

California’s Prop 25 (budget): In recent years, the state has faced months-long delays in passing a budget due to the requirement that it be adopted by 2/3rds of the legislature. This proposition would repeal that requirement; it would also give Democrats more power to craft policies in the largest state in the country.

California’s Prop 20 and 27 (redistricting): These initiatives create a confusing situation, as they go head-to-head in trying to change California’s redistricting practices. The state recently created a citizen-commission to draw the legislative map. Proposition 20 would extend that commission’s authority to drawing the congressional map as well; Proposition 27 would entirely eliminate the commission, giving redistricting power entirely to the legislature.

Florida’s Amendment 5 and Amendment 6 (redistricting): Florida’s legislative and congressional maps are heavily gerrymandered for the GOP, which has left the party in firm command of the state legislature and of the House delegation. If passed, these two amendments would throw the redistricting process in the hands of an independent panel, which would dramatically alter the landscape of state and federal politics and almost certainly guarantee that Democrats pick-up a substantial number of seats in 2012. Polls have shown voters like the measures, but there’s a big catch: They need to receive 60% to pass, which is obviously a very tall order.

—

Statewide officials

New York’s Attorney General: New York’s two most recent Attorney Generals are Eliot Spitzer and Andrew Cuomo, which goes to show just how important this position can be. Also, this Attorney General can target Wall Street, heightening the election’s very substantial stakes. That is especially the case this year, as Democrats are running a strong progressive, state Senator Eric Schneiderman - an ally of the Working Families Party who has a tense relationship with Cuomo. His victory would be a bright spot for the left in what is looking like a very rough night. Running against him is Staten Island DA Dan Donovan, who Republicans have been touting as a strong candidate. Getting Donovan elected would give the GOP a strong footing in state government - and finally provide them with a successful politician they can run in future Senate or Governor’s races. Polls show a tight race.

California’s Attorney General: Los Angeles’s Republican DA Steve Cooley has been the slight favorite throughout the election, but the state’s drift towards Democrats through October has brought San Francisco’s Democratic DA Kamala Harris back in contention. Two reasons non-Californians might care. First, Republicans have had difficulty winning any statewide elections over the past fifteen years, so electing one of their own at such a prominent position could help them build a bench for future races. (That said, Cooley will be 65 by 2012.) Second, the death penalty has been an important issue for this election, with Harris’s opposition to capital punishment creating an unusually high-profile divide.

Ohio’s Attorney General: Former Senator Mike DeWine, who lost his re-election race by double-digits in 2006, is attempting a political comeback by challenging incumbent Democrat Richard Cordray. Polls have shown a toss-up.

Ohio’s Secretary of State: The 2004 and 2008 presidential elections showed just how important it is to control this office. In 2004, Ken Blackwell purged thousands of voters off registration lists; in 2008, Jennifer Brunner’s rulings helped Democrats get more of an edge out of early voting. With Ohio set to once again play an important role in 2012, you can be sure we’ll hear a lot about either Republican state Senator Jon Husted or Democrat Maryellen O’Shaughnessy.

Florida’s Attorney General: A highly competitive race in one of the biggest state’s in the country deserves inclusion on the list, especially as there is a clear ideological contrast between the Sarah Palin-endorsed Pam Bondi and Democrat Dan Gelber, who has a liberal reputation.

Iowa’s Supreme Court Justices: Three of the state Supreme Court judges who legalized gay marriage are now up for retention, and conservatives have mounted a vigorous bid to oust all three. A new Des Moines Register poll shows that all three judges could indeed lose their job - though the die is far from cast.

Iowa’s Attorney General: I can think of no obvious national repercussions this race might have, but it remains interesting because a GOP win against 28-year incumbent Tom Miller would show just how brutal the Midwest has been for Democrats and because Brenna Findley (longtime chief of staff of Rep. Steve King, one of Congress’s most conservative Republicans) would be a very conservative force.

Massachusetts: Can Republicans win a statewide office in Massachusetts? They are mounting surprisingly strong campaigns for Auditor (Mary Connaughton just got the Boston Globe’s endorsement) and to some degree Treasurer (state Rep. Karyn Polito). With Scott Brown now sitting in the Senate and the GOP threatening to win several of the state’s House seats - an unthinkable development just a year ago - Massachusetts Republicans would continue gaining a footing in state government and make it harder for Democrats to return to their dominance.

Potpourri: There are more interesting races that I can hope to mention here - and also more that I am aware of.  Questions I have: Can Democrats defend any statewide offices in Kansas? (They were in a surprisingly strong position after the 2002 and 2006 midterms, but they are now in danger of being wiped-out now; keeping the Attorney General office is important for the party’s viability.) Can ethically embattled New York Comptroller Tom DiNapoli survive? Will Democratic Attorney Generals Catherine Coriez-Masto and Gary King fall in Nevada and New Mexico, two states that have grown promising for Republicans?

State legislatures

If Republicans are heading towards historic congressional gains, the wave could be even more dramatic at the level of legislative races. Many chambers are threatening to fall in the GOP’s hands, and that doesn’t even get us to the many legislatures that are sure to stay in a party’s hand but where Republicans will either substantially reduce the gap or pad their lead. I will not attempt to point to particular districts that will determine the size of the Republican wave, but here are the chambers I’ll keep an eye on.

New York state Senate: After decades in GOP hand due to a gerrymandered map that was meant to protect Republicans in an increasingly hostile state, the state Senate finally fell in Democratic hands in 2008 - but only by a 32-30 margin. That led to chaotic events last summer, with two Democrats (who have since been defeated in primaries) briefly handing control of the chamber to Republicans. Now, the GOP looks like it has the slightest edge in its bid to regain the chamber - but there are many districts held by both parties in play, some of them open. If Democrats keep the chamber, they’ll draw a favorable House map, which would be especially important since the state is scheduled to lose a seat or two; and as importantly, they’ll be sure to alter the map of Senate districts, making it much tougher for the GOP to regain a majority. If Republicans do regain a majority, they’ll force yet another compromise that would give them a shot at controlling the chamber.

Ohio and Pennsylvania House: Democrats have the narrowest of majorities in both chambers, and given how rough both states look for the party it would be a surprise if they manage to keep them. The GOP is already in control of both states’ Senates and come January they might also control both Governor’s Mansions, which would give them full control of two of the largest states in the country. That’s obviously significant not only for redistricting purposes but also for state policies.

Michigan House and Senate: Once upon a time, Democrats had high hopes of capturing the state Senate, but it’s hard to see how they can accomplish that feat given the state’s brutal political dynamics. If anything, there is now talk of Democrats losing their 6367-43 majority in the state House, which would give the GOP full control of state government.

Texas House: Another chamber in which Democrats had hopes and were mounting an aggressive play to close the 77-73 gap. That would have been huge for redistricting purposes, as it would have allowed the party to block the GOP from drawing yet another gerrymandered map and allocate themselves the lion share of the state’s new districts. While Democratic chances to score gains have obviously deteriorated, it’s worth keeping an eye on what the balance of power will look like.

Iowa House and Senate: Democrats have comfortable majorities in both chambers, 32-18 in the Senate and 56-44 in the House. But the state has soured on Democrats more than most others. Also, Republican groups have devoted an unexpected amount of money to Iowa’s legislative races, heightening Democrats’ disadvantage. As a result, both chambers are now in play.  Besides granting the GOP full control of state government, it would also allow Republicans to make a move towards outlawing a gay marriage.

Wisconsin House and Senate: Few states are punishing Democrats are much as Wisconsin. Russ Feingold collapsed from seemingly safe to probable loser in a stunningly short time span, and the highly-touted Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barret has never looked competitive in the gubernatorial race. As a resut, Democrats’ small 52-46 and 18-15 majorities look especially tenuous; the party should hope to at least defend one of the chambers to keep a say in state government.

New Hampshire House and Senate: In the 2006 wave, Democrats unexpectedly gained both chambers as voters massively flocked to their party. The GOP now has a good shot at pulling off the same feat, even though Democrats have what on paper looks like a comfortable majority in the state House (222-176).

Alabama House and Senate: Alabama could become the latest Southern state to complete its realignment. The Arkansas and West Virginia legislatures might still be solidly in Democratic hands, but the GOP’s steady gains in recent cycles look like they might finally climax in Democrats’ losing their century-old majorities.

Other chambers that could switch include the Indiana House and the Montana House. Democrats are favored to keep the Nevada Senate, the Oregon Senate and Washington’s House and Senate, but all bets are off if the GOP wave is even more dramatic than expected.

Let me know what important races I have not covered!

Ten days ago, I wrote that the Senate battle was coming down to just four states: Illinois, Colorado, Nevada and West Virginia. But in the following week, the field of play looked like it was substantially expanding to incorporate many other contests.

For one, Republicans spent the past week trumpeting their chances in California, with a number of surveys pointing to a tightening race and rumors floating around that GOP internals showed a dead heat, Carly Fiorina and the NRSC both put their money where their mouth: Fiorina donated $1 million to her campaign after refusing to use her own fortune ever since the primary while the NRSC announced it would spend $3 million in the final week after having pulled back earlier in October. With control of the Senate hanging in the balance, Democrats grew nervous.

Meanwhile, Democratic fortunes improved in Pennsylvania. The first indications the state was more competitive than virtually all polls were indicating came when the DSCC and NRSC decided to pour in millions - not what you expect to see in what had looked like a probable GOP pick-up for months. These early hints were confirmed when two Democratic polls showed Joe Sestak pulling into a tie - and then PPP and Morning Call both found the Democrat narrowly ahead, something that hadn’t happened since springtime. This understandably made Pennsylvania the story last week and fueled Democratic hopes they could still hold their losses down.

Democratic interest also picked-up in two GOP-held seats: Alaska and Kentucky. While Alaska has always been a long-shot, the extent of Joe Miller’s failings (from revelations about his being fired after hacking in coworkers’ computers for political reasons to his bodyguards’ chilling decision to handcuff a journalist) gave Democrats hope Scott McAdams could eek out a victory - particularly if Lisa Murkowski supporters committed many errors in the process of writing-in her name.

And in Kentucky, Democrats insisted that Jack Conway’s Aqua Buddha ad (which is likely to be the cycle’s most memorable ad, though Christine O’Donnell’s “I’m not a witch” should give it a run for its money) combined to his attacks on Rand Paul’s Medicare plan had transformed the race; the DSCC even released an internal poll that showed Conway leading by 2%.

Various other states looked like they were also growing tighter. Republicans and Democrats pointed to (perhaps outlying) polls to claim Washington and Wisconsin were more competitive than commonly thought; Robin Carnahan mounted last-ditched efforts to convince she remained in the game; and rumors were floating that Kendrick Meek might drop out of the Florida Senate race, thus giving Charlie Crist a path to victory (a scenario that never seemed likely because it would have substantially lowered Alex Sink’s chances of winning the gubernatorial race).

Had I updated the rankings at the last end of last week, I might have been tempted to move many of these races in one direction or another. But today, I am moving just one race towards a more competitive category: Pennsylvania moves out of the GOP column to becomes a 5th toss-up.

Needless to say, that’s very positive news for Democrats - and it parallels Michael Bennet’s Colorado comeback (though I always left that race in the toss-up column, the incumbent had fallen narrowly but consistently behind).

That said, Toomey shouldn’t want to trade places just yet. I don’t say that because the Morning Call tracking poll shifted from a 3% Sestak lead to a clear Toomey lead in the space of 7 days (that movement coincided with a substantial and arguably unrealistic change in the sample’s partisan breakdown); indeed, a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted this week-end found the two candidates tied at 47%, confirming that the race has grown into a dead heat. But there are a lot of signs that the Midwest as a whole and PA in particular is tough for Democrats - and we have yet to see whether Democrats can ensure sufficient turnout in Philadelphia and its suburbs.

But the good news for Democrats is that there are other signs that confirm that their fortunes are looking up in the Philly suburbs: After months of looking all but lost, PA-7 has grown into a true battleground and the DCCC started spending heavily last week. Another good news: Pennsylvania has no early voting and relatively little absentee voting, so Toomey did not bank votes back when he was leading in early October.

Arguably the even better news for Democrats is that Barbara Boxer seems to have solidified her position in California. The race remains in the “lean Democratic” to acknowledge still persistent rumors that campaigns’ internal numbers show a tighter race than what we are seeing, but this is a rare race in which public polls actually agree and a Fiorina victory should be considered a big upset at this point. Despite the GOP’s insistence that it is not wasting its millions in the Golden State, no less than three polls released over the past few days (two of them today) showed the incumbent leading by an obviously solid 9% (PPP, Suffolk and the LAT); an additional two polls released today showed Boxer gaining, with Rasmussen showing her leading by 4% and SUSA by 5% (both improvements since last week). Furthermore, as much as a third of the California electorate could have already voted, meaning that a late GOP surge would register less than in states with little early voting.

None of the other races we heard about over the past ten days earn a move to a more competitive category either. In Kentucky, the two most recent public polls suggest the Aqua Buddha ad has not only not worked but has arguably backfired on Conway, with Rand Paul opening a 7% lead in Rasmussen and a 13% lead in PPP. While the latter poll looks to be overstating Paul’s lead, the race remains in the “lean GOP” column: It is still in play, especially since there is no early voting, but the Republican is ahead. One incident that could resonate in the final stretch is a Paul supporter’s vicious assault against a MoveOn worker last night.

In Alaska, Miller continues to unravel - and will do so over the next few days now that a judge ruled that his employments should be released. These certainly don’t paint a pretty picture: The next Senator from Alaska could be a man who two years ago admitted having used his coworkers’ computers for political reasons. But the bottom-line is that Scott McAdams remains too far in the polls for the race to deserve a move to the “toss-up” column and the logistics of a write-in campaign still make it a huge question mark how high Murkowski will be able to rise (I am considering a Lisa Murkowski victory as a GOP retention, as she has made it clear she would continue caucusing with Republicans).

Elsewhere: While Russ Feingold certainly hasn’t achieved Blanche Lincoln-status, he remains behind his opponent while there is still no reason not to regard Patty Murray as the front-runner in Washington. However, there’s been a dearth of information about either race lately - and Democrats haven’t given up on Wisconsin nor have Republicans on Washington. There might be reason to reevaluate by this week-end.

Ratings change in only two states other than Pennsylvania: Missouri and New Hampshire, two GOP-held open seats Democrats had extremely high hopes for in 2009, move from “lean GOP” to “likely GOP.” This does not mean that Roy Blunt and Kelly Ayotte will win in landslides (in fact, Blunt’s margin will likely not look overwhelming), but that neither contest has looked suspenseful for months, that no one disputes Republicans are clearly favored in both states and that comeback wins for Robin Carnahan and Paul Hodes would be huge upsets.

—

So where does all of this leave us? Democrats still not looking likely to pick-up GOP seats, so it all comes down to how many Republicans can capture. They remain in command in four; five are now in the toss-up category; and two more lean Democratic. To win control of the Senate, Republicans have to sweep the first nine while also scoring an upset in either California (increasingly unlikely) or Washington.

One party typically sweeps most of the races that are considered toss-ups heading into Election Day, so it is not at all a stretch envisioning one party winning four (if not five) of the toss-ups. Technically, this puts the range of the most plausible outcomes between a gain of 4 and 9 seats for the GOP.

I want to qualify that by saying it would be quite a shocking result if Democrats somehow manage to hold their losses to 4 by sweeping all 5 toss-ups; given all we know, they should consider themselves lucky to win just two or three.

The most promising of these 5 races for Democrats is West Virginia, which has been trending back towards Joe Manchin. PPP finds the Governor recovering from a 3% deficit to first take a 3% lead - and now expand it to 6%; while Rasmussen shows Raese’s lead cut from 7% to 2%.

Colorado is anyone’s guess at this point, and it looks to me to be the year’s truest jump-ball (in addition to being the state with the most outside spending). Michael Bennet clearly trailed for months, but he has pulled himself into what is an undecipherable dead heat after a series of conservative statements by Ken Buck and after the controversy over Buck’s failure to prosecute a rape case gave Democrats an opening. One important note: Nearly half of voters have already cast their ballot. Two contrasting tidbits: PPP and SUSA both found Bennet leading among those who have already voted, but early voting data shows the GOP is clearly outpacing Democrats - especially compared to 2008.

Illinois: A number of polling firms have shown some small movement towards Mark Kirk, but his lead remains well within the margin of error. There seem to be more undecided voters who are Democrats, which still gives Giannoulias hope - and Obama will be in Illinois to rally voters this week.

I already discussed Pennsylvania, so that leaves us with Nevada - which many consider the year’s marquee race. Conventional wisdom is that Sharron Angle is now ever so slightly favored, but I don’t get the sense that Democrats are pressing the panic button in any way. Early voting turnout is hard to interpret, with Republicans voting in greater number - but nothing for now to indicate that the gap will be unusual for a midterm race. Whenever a piece of information seems to indicate some momentum for one side, another contradicts it; and we might have to stay up late for this one.

And there is a sixth race whose Senator I would not venture to guess: Alaska. I wouldn’t even rule out a McAdams upset, though a Murkowski or Miller win is more likely. The situation is just very confusing.

In short, we are entering the final week in what I feel is far a more confusing picture than in 2008: At this point two years ago, Democrats were clearly favored to pick-up VA, NM, CO, NH, OR, NC and AK; the GOP’s position in MS and KY was comparable to Democrats’ current position in WA and CA; and there were just two races that looked like true dead heats (MN and GA). And there was nothing resembling the confusion that is this year’s Alaska race.

Here’s the full breakdown:

This gets us to the following breakdown:

• Safe Democratic: 45
• Safe/Likely Democratic: 48
• Safe/Likely/Lean Democratic: 50
• Toss-ups: 5 (+1)
• Safe/Likely/Lean Republican: 45 (-1)
• Safe/Likely Republican: 40
• Safe Republican: 34