Will Rick Run?

By JOHN FUND

It seems everyone is talking about Texas Gov. Rick Perry as a possible Republican presidential candidate. Even Sarah Palin, contemplating her own entry to the 2012 race, spontaneously brought up Mr. Perry's name recently as someone to watch.

Mr. Perry, who has long claimed he has no interest in running for president, is now fueling the speculation. He said last Friday "I'm gonna think about" a possible bid. He's replacing Donald Trump as a speaker at a key dinner for New York Republicans on June 14 -- one of four out-of-state political trips he will take this month. And earlier this week he burnished his credentials with anti-tax groups by vetoing a bill passed by the Republican state legislature that would have required online merchants to collect sales taxes from Texas residents.

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Associated Press

Texas Gov. Rick Perry

On one level, a Perry campaign seems implausible. His top strategist left to work for Newt Gingrich a few months ago with Mr. Perry's blessing. He has no campaign structure anywhere and hasn't even formed an exploratory committee or raised a dime for a federal campaign.

But as the liberal Texas Tribune points out, Mr. Perry shouldn't be underestimated. "He's never lost an election, and in his last primary, he came back from a 20-point deficit in surveys to beat U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison by the same amount," according to the Tribune. "Absent a career-ending scandal, 40-point swings are not common." From recounting how Texas has been responsible for the majority of the nation's new private sector jobs to his talk of state sovereignty, Mr. Perry knows how to play the base of the Republican Party like a finely tuned musical instrument.

"His political opponents spend a lot of time bending over backwards to portray him as just lucky," said Jim Henson, a professor at the University of Texas. "That undervalues how politically astute he and his team have been."

For now, Mr. Perry faces a new challenge. He had to call a special session of the legislature to attempt to push through his proposed budget, which involves a $15 billion cut in state spending over the next two years. Cuts of that magnitude are unpopular with many voting groups, but for the Republican primary voters they are sweet music indeed.

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